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000
FXUS62 KTBW 190732
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
232 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
Areas of showers are developing over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico early this morning in the warm sector ahead of an
approaching cold front, currently just reaching the western tip of
the Florida Panhandle. This front is on track to move southeast
into the forecast area this afternoon and evening, with scattered
to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms impacting the area
along and ahead of the frontal boundary. Cold air advection behind
this front will allow temperatures tonight to drop into the mid
to upper 30s across the Nature Coast, although wind speeds are
likely a bit too high to lead to widespread frost developing.

A couple of mid level shortwave troughs will dig into the
southeastern US Monday and Tuesday, resulting in even stronger
pushes of cold air advection across the Florida Peninsula, and
perhaps the strongest cold snap of the year so far. Cool and
breezy days are expected Monday through Wednesday, with afternoon
highs forecast to top out only in the 50s and 60s. Tuesday
morning low temperatures will drop into the low 30s over much of
the Nature Coast counties, with parts of Levy County expected to
touch freezing for a couple of hours. Additionally, wind chills
will drop to below 35 as far south as northern Hillsborough and
Polk counties, although wind speeds may not be quite high enough
to meet advisory criteria. Wednesday morning is forecast to be the
coldest morning of the week, with freezing temperatures forecast
as far south as Brooksville, and lows in the mid to upper 30s
expected away from the coast throughout west central and
southwest Florida. Wind speeds will also be high enough to drop
wind chills to be below freezing across virtually the entire
forecast area early Wednesday morning.

Surface high pressure will build in from the north during the
second half of the week, allowing temperatures to quickly rebound
back to above normal by Friday. A weaker cold front will approach
from the west Friday and Friday night, with another round of
showers expected, and slightly cooler temperature expected for
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected to hold through around 15z,
then isolated to scattered showers, along with MVFR or possibly
IFR ceilings will move southeast into the Tampa Bay area
terminals, generally around KTPA, KPIE, KLAL, and KSRQ. These
ceilings will begin to lift out around 00-03z. Farther south, the
showers are expected to mostly dissipate before reaching KPGD,
KFMY, and KRSW, but MVFR or IFR ceilings are expected to move in
after sunset, and could hold overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move southeast through the waters today,
bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Winds and
seas will increase behind the front, with cautionary level winds
expected over the Gulf waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
River by late this afternoon, and advisory level winds and seas
expected to develop over the Gulf waters north of Englewood
tonight and continue into early Monday morning. Cautionary level
winds will hold through Tuesday, when winds are expected to
increase again to advisory levels in response to a weak surface
wave developing east of Florida. Winds will gradually subside
again Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds in from the
north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Slightly drier air will fill into the region Monday behind a cold
front, with relative humidity percentages dropping into the mid
30s for a few hours Monday and Tuesday afternoons. However, wind
speeds are not expected to be high enough to trigger Red Flag
conditions.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  48  60  42 /  60  20   0   0
FMY  80  56  67  45 /  10  30   0   0
GIF  78  48  62  41 /  40  30   0   0
SRQ  78  51  63  44 /  40  30   0   0
BKV  75  42  60  36 /  60  10   0   0
SPG  76  50  61  44 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10
     AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Fleming