Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 181145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
645 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

Patchy fog, some locally dense, early this morning will lift and
dissipate by mid-morning with mostly sunny skies expected for the
remainder of the day as high pressure moves across the eastern
states. Light northeast winds will shift to northwest near the
coast this afternoon as the sea breeze develops with temperatures
climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Overall the current
forecast looks good with no morning update planned.


Patchy fog early this morning will give way to VFR conditions for
the rest of today into early tonight. Some more patchy fog with
localized MVFR/IFR visibilities will be possible late tonight
into early Wednesday morning. Light and variable winds this
morning will become northwest during this afternoon.


Light winds and seas will remain over the waters through Wednesday,
with no headlines expected. The next complex storm system will move
into the region Thursday bringing showers and thunderstorms and
overall hazardous conditions. Winds are forecast to increase to
near gale force Thursday night into Friday, with seas increasing
up to around 14 feet or higher as well. Winds will start to
diminish Saturday, and will fall even more for Sunday, but waves
will be slower to subside.


.Prev Discussion... /issued 259 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018/

A quasi-zonal flow remains over the region early this morning with
ridging to our west. At the surface, high pressure is centered to our
northwest, with a low-level northwest flow in place across the local
area. For today, the ridge aloft will build over the region, with
dry weather and temperatures a couple of degrees warmer. The ridge
will continue to shift west of the area through Wednesday as a
deepening trough moves into the central U.S. The surface reflection
associated with this feature will form along the northern Gulf
coast/southern Plains area with a warm front, along with increasing
moisture spreading eastward, leading to showers and thunderstorms for
Wednesday afternoon across mainly the southern half of the forecast
area. Overall, Wednesday will see increasing clouds with temperatures
continuing to warm up by a couple of degrees.

For Wednesday night through Thursday, the surface low will move
through the southeast, with the warm front shifting north of the
area and the cold front passing late Thursday into Thursday night.
Widespread rainfall is likely, with some localized flooding
possible. In addition, we continue to see signals in the models
highlighting the possibility of some severe weather with the squall
line that comes through on Thursday. In particular, the NAM earlier
this afternoon was showing about an 80-knot low-level jet moving
into the region, and the 00Z run really has not changed all that
much. The GFS does not show quite as strong of a jet, but still
shows increasing shear over the area, similar to the NAM. We still
have some time to watch this, but models have been fairly consistent
over the past couple of days in showing the possibility of some
severe weather and, indeed, the Storm Prediction Center is already
showing a 15 percent chance for severe storms for Day 4 (Thursday).

Winds will shift to the west Thursday night into Friday, likely
increasing to gale force. Take this increase in winds plus the
increased wave action into account and we have a very good setup for
some coastal flooding. We will also likely keep clouds and some
shower activity around through Friday before high pressure and drier
air finally moves in for the weekend.

No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels. Some patchy,
shallow ground fog will be possible over the next few nights, mainly
over inland areas, but no widespread fog is anticipated.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  69  53  71  63 /   0   0  20  90
FMY  72  55  74  65 /   0   0  20  60
GIF  71  51  74  62 /   0   0  10  70
SRQ  69  54  70  64 /   0   0  40  80
BKV  70  47  73  62 /   0   0  10  90
SPG  67  57  70  63 /   0   0  30  90


Gulf waters...None.


PREV DISCUSSION...05/Carlisle & 11/McKaughan
UPPER AIR...19/Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.