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000
FXUS62 KTBW 261219
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
719 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

.AVIATION...
MVFR to IFR or less conditions in place at several terminals with
low clouds and fog. This will continue to be possible through
around 14z, with gradually improving conditions through 16z as
ceilings may be slower to lift/dissipate. Light southerly flow
will become more S/SW through the afternoon and increase to around
10kts. Fog and low ceilings will again be possible mainly after
08z with MVFR to IFR or less conditions again possible.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 250 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over west central and
southwest Florida today with continued mild conditions across the
area. Areas of early morning fog will give way to partly cloudy
skies by this afternoon. Areas of fog will redevelop tonight
across the region and may be locally dense during the late night
and early morning hours on Wednesday. An U/L disturbance will push
across the Tennessee Valley late Wednesday with an associated
cold front pushing southeast across the Florida peninsula late
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A band of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms will move across the northern nature coast
Wednesday afternoon. U/L support will be lifting away from the
region as the cold front pushes across the remainder of the forecast
area which will cause shower activity to decrease in areal
coverage as the band of showers pushes southeast Wednesday
evening.

Canadian high pressure will build over the Florida peninsula in
the wake of the front Wednesday night and Thursday with much
cooler drier air advecting across the region under clear skies.
High temperatures generally in the 60s Thursday. Thursday night, near
freezing temperatures will be possible across the northern nature
coast...with lows in the lower to mid 40s central and mid to
upper 40s south.

Surface high pressure will move toward the mid Atlantic coast on
Friday with boundary layer winds shifting to the east which will
allow low level moisture and temperatures to begin to recover
Friday and Saturday.

A strong area of low pressure will develop over the central Plains
over the weekend and will track quickly to the Ohio River Valley
on Sunday. An associated cold front will move across the Florida
peninsula Sunday night...however U/L support will remain well
north of the region with only a slight chance of a shower across
the nature coast. Canadian high pressure will build back over the
forecast area in the wake of the front with cooler drier air
returning to the region.

AVIATION...
Fog may impact all terminals late tonight and early this morning
with areas of MVFR VSBYS and IFR CIGS...with LCL IFR VSBYS and
LIFR CIGS. Fog/CIGS will lift during the mid/late morning with VFR
conditions expected the remainder of the afternoon. Areas of fog
will likely redevelop tonight with a better chance for dense fog
late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.

MARINE...
Areas of fog will be possible through tonight and may be locally
dense...with the best chance over the cooler northern waters. A
cold front will push across the waters Wednesday night with a
band of showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly over the
northern waters. Fog will lift as the cold front moves across the
region. Gusty north winds in the wake of the front may create
advisory level of winds/seas Wednesday night and into Thursday.
Winds and seas will begin to subside late Thursday and Thursday
night. Benign conditions expected Friday and Saturday. Another
cold front will move across the waters Sunday night with
increasing winds and seas in the wake of the front...with exercise
caution and possibly advisory level winds possible.

FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards are expected through Wednesday as
relative humidity values are expected to remain well above
critical levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  65  77  55 /   0   0  30  20
FMY  82  65  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  82  64  82  54 /   0   0  20  10
SRQ  78  65  77  57 /   0   0  20  20
BKV  80  62  79  49 /   0   0  40  10
SPG  75  66  74  56 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...24/Hubbard