334
FXUS62 KTBW 121343
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
943 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Plenty of light echoes showing up on regional radar imagery this
morning as mid/high level clouds stream across the area in the
northwest flow aloft. While the vast majority of this activity
should result in virga due to dry low levels, there is a small
chance of a few very light showers and/or sprinkles over the next
couple of hours across portions of the Nature Coast but have kept
PoPs less than 20% so not expecting this to amount to much at all.
Otherwise, the remainder of the area should be looking at a dry
day ahead as shortwave ridging continues to build across the
region. While temperatures will be toasty once again in the upper
80s to mid 90s, yesterday`s weak cold frontal passage has brought
a brief reprieve in dewpoints so humidity levels will be
tolerable today for mid May standards ,but this won`t last long
as dewpoints quickly recover by the new work week. Other than some
tweaks to morning PoPs across northern portions of the forecast
area to account for latest radar trends, the rest of the forecast
remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Weak high pressure over the region today for warm but mainly dry
conditions.

A progressive pattern for next week as a series of upper troughs
move through the southern jet stream but then lift NE through the
Deep South. This will produce deepening S-SW low to mid level flow
increasing mean layer moisture over the local area producing
daily rain chances through the week and into next weekend. The
surface storm systems are expected to remain well N of the FL
Peninsula but models indicate some modest upper support for
possibly active diurnal rain chances daily.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period as high pressure
remains in control across the region. Surface winds will be out of
the NNE this morning and shift onshore at coastal sites this
afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland with wind speeds around
5-10 kts throughout the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure in the region today for fairly light winds and
seas. A series of frontal systems is expected to move through the
Northern Gulf region producing increased south-southwesterly flow
Tuesday through the week along with daytime rain chances.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Weak high pressure in the region will keep warm and dry conditions
in place today into Monday with minimum RH values critically low,
but light wind speeds should preclude red flag conditions. Humidity
values increase on southerly flow with increasing rain chances Tuesday
through mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  75  92  78 /  10   0  30  20
FMY  93  73  94  76 /  10   0  30  10
GIF  91  71  94  73 /  10  10  40  20
SRQ  92  72  93  76 /  10   0  20  20
BKV  91  67  94  70 /  10  10  40  30
SPG  90  77  90  79 /  10   0  20  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard