


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
405 FXUS62 KTBW 131740 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 140 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Current water vapor imagery indicates an area of showers and storms off the east coast of Florida. Models show that PW values in the vicinity are >2,25 inches. Closer to home, there have been persistent showers/storms this morning into the early afternoon across the Nature Coast that have dissipated but beginning to redevelop near the I-4 corridor currently. The upper level pattern features a weakening ridge aloft with a weak trough to the north and east. At the surface, low-level flow is generally onshore. Expect showers/storms will continue to move inland throughout the afternoon and evening hours. This mornings 12z sounding indicated 1.82 inches of PW. This value is around to slightly above the climatological mean for mid-July. Additionally, the 500 mb temperature was near -9 degrees C. This values is around the 10% percentile for mid-July indicating some cooler air aloft and better than typical lapse rates. Due to this, any storm that does form could become briefly severe with marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds being the main threat. Expect any ongoing convection should come to an end near sunset. The moisture climbs on Monday with models showing PW values around 2- 2.25 inches across the region. These values are near the 90th percentile for mid July. This will occur as the area of showers/storms currently off the east coast associated with the upper level low drifts further to the south and west. This general pattern will continue into Tuesday as the upper level low drifts to the west. A surface low could develop at this time and NHC has outlined the northern Gulf with a 20% chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. Regardless, the early to mid part of the work week will be a rainy one across the region. Due to this, WPC has outlined the area in the slight (2 out of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will generally range from 3-5 inches. The higher end values in this range would lead to a decent chance of seeing localized flooding, especially in low lying areas and areas with poor drainage. Due to the widespread cloud cover and precipitation, highs will be on the cooler side in the mid 80s to low 90s. The upper level low lingers just to the west of the region on Wednesday before eventually exiting the region by Thursday. At this time, chances for showers/storms will look more like a typical summer time seabreeze pattern. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR conditions currently across the terminals. The coverage of showers/storms is a bit more limited than forecast. However, most of this convection is currently near the TAF sites. Any ongoing convection should come to an end around 22-00z. Dry conditions are forecast throughout most of the overnight period. An upper level low will approach from the east late in the TAF cycle and have went with a PROB30 for TSRA from 09-13z at TPA, PIE, and LAL with SHRA/VCTS afterwards. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 High pressure will hold over the waters through tonight. An area of low pressure may develop and move west across the waters Monday and Tuesday and then well west of the area by midweek. This will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity for much of the upcoming week. Winds and seas are expected to remain below cautionary levels at this time, but gusty winds and locally rough seas will occur in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 No fire weather concerns are expected at this time. Moisture will increase with best chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 90 77 90 / 40 90 80 90 FMY 77 90 74 89 / 40 100 70 100 GIF 76 91 74 91 / 50 100 50 90 SRQ 78 90 74 90 / 40 90 80 90 BKV 75 91 72 92 / 40 90 60 90 SPG 79 88 77 88 / 50 90 80 90 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 8 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle