Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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303
FXUS64 KTSA 101913
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
213 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Another nice afternoon with temperatures in the 70s with light
north winds and a few passing high clouds. Cool conditions
overnight with lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
A brief warm up expected on Saturday as upper ridge shifts over
the southern Plains ahead of upper low moving through the Four
Corners region.

Precipitation chances will begin to increase Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night as upper system approaches from the west.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday night into Monday
morning with PWATs generally in the 1.25-1.50 inch range. Several
of the GEFS runs also support the potential for higher rainfall
amounts compared to current deterministic solution. In addition,
at least a marginal severe threat will be possible across southeast
Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas where higher instability will
reside.

Drier conditions expected into Tuesday behind departing upper
system. A broad upper trough approaches from the west on Thursday,
with a few embedded smaller scale disturbances. Another round of
scattered showers/thunderstorms forecast with locally heavy
rainfall again possible during this time. Stayed close to NBM
guidance through the extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period at
all area TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  83  59  78 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   56  83  60  79 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   55  83  59  77 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   52  82  56  78 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   52  80  55  79 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   53  79  55  79 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   54  80  58  77 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   53  79  56  77 /   0   0   0  20
F10   55  81  58  76 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   56  80  59  74 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...10