923
FXAK68 PAFC 111304
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 AM AKDT Mon May 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

The system that brought widespread rain (and even some snow)
showers to parts of Southcentral yesterday has since lifted up to
the northern Alaska Range. Most of the region now sits under the
western periphery of an upper level ridge, leading to considerably
drier conditions by and large compared to the past couple days. A
few bands of showers are still drifting north within the
prevailing southerly flow in place, but most of this activity is
staying on the lighter side. The outer reaches of the next more
impactful system are already starting to show up off to the
southwest, where increasing high clouds are already reaching
Kodiak Island ahead of a Bering low and frontal system.

By this afternoon, a coastal ridge already in place will amplify
further as the Bering frontal system enters the southwest corner
of the Gulf and as low level flow strengthens and turns more
southeasterly. This will set the stage for a noticeably windy day
for a number of spots as southerly gap winds pick up through
favored valleys near the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. The Copper
River Valley, Knik Valley and Turnagain Arm will all see strong
and gusty winds develop as the day progresses, with much of
Anchorage also likely to see gusty southeast winds today. Winds
will bend south away from the Anchorage Bowl later this evening as
the frontal wave approaches the Barren Islands and induces a
strong down-inlet pressure gradient. Meanwhile, rain will begin to
fill in across Kodiak Island and along the coast from the southern
Kenai Peninsula to Prince William Sound as moisture moving in
ahead of the front wrings out over the coastal mountains. Most
inland valleys will stay dry thanks to strong cross-barrier flow
and downslope flow.

By early Tuesday, the frontal boundary will lift north past Kodiak
Island and begin to slow its progress as it approaches the
northern Gulf coast. Models have trended considerably stronger
with this front recently, and winds have been increased with this
forecast package to include a wider swath of Gale Force winds
ahead of the front late tonight into Tuesday from the southern
Cook Inlet and Barrens out to Middleton Island. Across the
Mainland farther north, things will not change much compared to
Monday, with steady, moderate rain and mountain snow continuing
along the coast as southeasterly gap winds persist. The front
will weaken as it hangs up along the coast on Wednesday, with
some potential for scattered rain showers to make it farther
inland.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

What is the left of the upper level low over Southwest Alaska is
quickly flattening this morning into more of an upper level wave
and is lifting out of the region. Meanwhile, a broad surface low
north of the Rat Islands has an attendant small craft front draped
across the west-central Bering, Pribilof Islands, and Eastern
Aleutians. With a southeasterly wind direction right ahead of the
front, Cold Bay is likely to see sustained gales this morning
between 18-22z or so with gusts as high as 45 knots. Again, this
will be very short-lived, because as soon as the wind direction
flips behind the front, winds will dramatically decrease. By this
afternoon, the low will slide eastward in between the Pribilof
Islands and the Central Aleutians as its front quickly moves
across the Alaska Peninsula and nears the Southwest Alaska
coastline. Patchy gusts to gale force are possible through this
evening, especially for the Western Capes. Largely speaking, the
500 mb pattern heading into the latter half of Tuesday morning
shows a very broad upper low/trough situated over the southeastern
Bering, with shortwaves of varying magnitudes rotating around its
southern periphery and south of the Aleutian Chain, which could
potentially lead to enhanced precipitation along the southern
coast of the Alaska Peninsula. Lastly, Kamishak gap winds increase
to gale force for a short time Tuesday morning and are focused
along a corridor just west of Iliamna until the aforementioned
front dissipates just inland across Southwest Alaska.


-AM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A low pressure system is expected to be centered across the
Alaska Peninsula early in the period, with moist southerly flow
over the northern Gulf of alaska producing enhanced rainfall and
mountain snow across Southcentral Alaska`s southern coastal zones,
especially from the eastern Alaska and Kenai Peninsulas and
Prince William Sound through Thursday morning. This low will
gradually weaken, but a second system is forecast to track toward
the northern Gulf and Alaska Peninsula later in the week, bringing
another round of precipitation to the same coastal areas Friday
and Saturday, though the details of that follow-up system still
carry notable uncertainty. Over the Bering Sea and Aleutian
islands, the nearby low will keep marine conditions active, but
widespread heavy precipitation is not anticipated in the those
far-western waters.

Overall, the pattern favors periods of unsettled weather across
Southcentral and Western Alaska, with the best chances for
significant coastal rain and favored mountain snow as these
systems move through over the weekend.

&&







.AVIATION...

PANC...Showers will move into the terminal this afternoon with
southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds gusting up to 25 kts bending
into the terminal. Winds will decrease later tonight before
increase again late Monday morning. VFR and MVFR ceilings expected
but could dip down to IFR before the front moves through this
evening.


&&


$$