Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 050945
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
445 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected today as high pressure builds east to
the Mid Atlantic coast. A weak trough will then move into the
eastern Great Lakes late tonight and linger through midweek,
producing a wealth of clouds and a few periods of light rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry weather is expected today as surface high pressure drifts off
the east coast. Sunny skies to start the day with some cirrus
level clouds increase by the afternoon. Milder air will be sent
into the region under a southerly wind component with high
temperatures expected in the mid to upper 40s on the lake plains
western New York, and upper 30s to lower 40s for the North
Country. It will remain locally breezy at the northeast end of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with winds gusting to 25-30 mph at
times.

Clouds will continue to increase tonight. Ample low level dry air
will inhibit precipitation for at least the first half of the night.
A little better push of mid level isentropic ascent after midnight
will drive a moist plume into western New York. This moist axis
will be topped by a region of low static stability/steep mid
level lapse rates, which should be enough to overcome the
initial dry air in the low levels and support increasing chances
for precipitation overnight. The degree of boundary layer
warmth that will be present will keep precipitation type all
liquid for the most part, although there could be a rain/wet
snow mix across higher terrain. No snow accumulation is
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front stalled to the west will provide an the
opportunity for a wet few days during the short term period. This
will occur as a few waves of low pressure track northeast out ahead
of the front, spreading showers across the region.

On Tuesday, the main area of showers will be focused over the
eastern portion of the area as a shortwave trough tracks northeast
along the eastern portion of a broad trough over the region. An
influx of moisture starting early Tuesday morning, combined with the
shortwave, and a potent low level jet of 40-55kts over the far
eastern portion of the forecast area will bring the greatest chance
for continued showers for the North Country. The LLJ strengthens in
the afternoon as the shortwave trough moves through, and a
tightening pressure gradient develops over Central NY. Farther west,
conditions will be less favorable for continued showers behind the
passing shortwave trough, but continued low and mid-level moisture
along with a large scale trough over the region will continue at
least a low chance for showers through the afternoon. Higher
elevation snow or rain/snow mix is expected to change to all rain
with daytime warming. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the
mid 40s to near 50, with a few of the cooler spots only reaching the
low 40s.

Tuesday night, the best chance for showers will continue to be over
the North Country, Central NY, and points east with the low level
jet still in place through most of the night. Being on the warm side
of the front still, lows on Tuesday night will be in the upper 30s
to mid 40s.

Wednesday, another shortwave trough along with a weak sfc low will
track northeast ahead of the cold front bringing another round of
showers through most of the afternoon. The weak cold front will
cross the area, and behind its passage, showers will begin to taper
off from west to east through the afternoon. Temperatures on
Wednesday will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s before the front
crosses the area. A few of the cooler spots will only reach the mid
40s.

Wednesday night, behind the passing cold front, cold air advection
will bring 850H temps down near -5C, though there is plenty of
uncertainty among guidance. If these temperatures can drop down to
around -5C, it should be just cool enough to cause lake clouds to
develop, along with maybe a few lake effect showers southeast of the
lakes. Temperatures on Wednesday night will be in the low 30s to
near 40 from the higher terrain, to the lower elevations
respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Still uncertainty with a late week storm that guidance is still
struggling to agree on. The GFS has been consistently tracking a sfc
low, within a mid-level trough, and a wide swath of showers across
the entire forecast area for Thursday night into Friday night. The
Canadian and Euro track the storm and trough to the south of the
area, with the Canadian trending a little farther north. All three
of these scenarios would have different results, with the GFS being
warmer and wetter, the Canadian being cooler with a better chance of
winter precip because the area would be on the colder side of the
storm, and the Euro would leave the entire forecast area dry.

The rest of the weekend looks mainly dry with the potential for a
ridge to move into the region, though the GFS does continue shower
activity as a larger trough develops over the northeast.

Temperatures during the long term period will be heavily dependent
on storm track for late in the week, and the pattern following the
storm passage. For now, going with slightly above normal
temperatures for Thursday and near normal temperatures for Friday
and Saturday, and temperatures slightly above normal for Sunday.
Normal highs for this period are mid to upper 30s, for most of the
area, and near 30 for the higher terrain of the Tug Hill.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will prevail through tonight. Extensive high cirrus will thicken
and lower this afternoon and tonight ahead of the next system.
Elevated wind gusts of 20-25 knots northeast of the lakes will
impact KIAG, KBUF, and KART today.

Some light rain is expected after midnight tonight, but visibility
restrictions are not expected.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...MVFR/IFR CIGS with rain showers likely
at times.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR CIGS and mainly dry.
Friday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of rain and wet snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southwesterlies will gradually back to south-southwest
today as high pressure moves off the east coast. This will
maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario as outlined below.

Light winds will return Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak trough moves
into the eastern Great Lakes and the pressure gradient relaxes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon
         for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JLA/JM/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA


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