Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 112329
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
629 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

.AVIATION...
Gusty sounds winds continue this evening under mostly clear VFR
skies. Winds will finally decrease to around 10 knots by 05z across
South Central Texas. Models are currently not depicting any morning
stratus development, but with little change in the upper air pattern
and south to southeast winds keeping the low levels saturated see no
reason to not go with persistence and add in MVFR ceilings lasting
from 09z to 15z at the San Antonio terminals, and a mix of VFR/MVFR
cigs at AUS. Winds pick up again tomorrow around 15z and any ceilings
that do build in should be mixing out by 15z as well. DRT will remain
VFR through the period once again.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
The subtropical ridge remains centered generally over West Texas.
High pressure at the surface is centered over the Gulf and winds
across our CWA are from the southeast to southwest. We do not expect
any significant change to this pattern during this period. Subsidence
under the ridge will keep rain out of most areas. The southeasterly
low level flow will produce mostly cloudy skies over the eastern half
of the area overnight, while skies remain partly to mostly clear out
west. The upper ridge will be a bit stronger and suppress nearly all
convection Wednesday. Only a small corner of our southeastern
counties will have any chance for rain and even than chances are low.
Temperatures Wednesday will continue to be above normal with highs
in the upper 90s to around 104. Heat index values will reach 110 in a
few places, but these extremes will be localized and a heat advisory
seems unnecessary. In addition, this is the climatological hottest
week of the year. Tuesday night will be a virtual repeat of tonight.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The rest of this week doesn`t look to offer much respite from the
heat as the upper low remains anchored over AZ/NM & into the Wrn Half
of TX. Temps and heat indices will be similar through at least
Sunday. Late in the weekend the upper low begins to change shape,
lifting more to the north into the Great Basin and allowing a more
northerly flow aloft over the Southern Plains. Another hot day is
expected for Monday, but late afternoon storms are expected to erupt
as instability spills in from the north. There are some slight
variations in timing, and the CMC model suggests the activity arrives
early and lowers max temps for Monday. Will keep with the blends as
there aren`t really any models showing a preferred handling of NW
flow patterns. If the late afternoon timing remains the most favored
as we get closer to Monday, some strong storm winds may need to be
considered. The rains should drop the highs back to the 90s for
almost all areas Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday, but high
pressure and hot weather will likely return again late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             103  78 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 101  77 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    102  77 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            99  76  99  75 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  80 104  80 104 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport       100  79 100  78 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport            101  76 100  76 103 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport       101  77 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   99  79  99  78 101 /  -   -   -    0  -
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  79 100  78 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           99  78 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Treadway
Long-Term...EWilliams


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