206
FXUS64 KEWX 171900
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

There is an upper level ridge over the southern plains this
afternoon. The low level flow is from the southeast over most of
South-Central Texas keeping a warm, moist airmass in place.
Temperatures range from the middle 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints
from the middle 60s to lower 70s. The upper ridge will remain in
place through the short term period. Southeasterly flow in the low
levels will also continue. This will keep the weather dry through
Wednesday night. The above normal temperatures will also continue.
Lows both tonight and tomorrow night will be mostly in the 70s.
Along the Rio Grande there may be record warm lows. High
temperatures Wednesday will be in the 90s. We do not have any
records in the forecast, but some places could be within a couple of
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Ridging at the 500mb level will strengthen and expand over South
Central Texas late week and result in continued hot and dry
conditions. By late in the weekend, a trough will approach from the
west, but with recent model trends forcing this trough further north,
our chance at any sort of rainfall or cold front have decreased. With
the ridge expected to hold strong, we may see some slightly cooler
temperatures with the passage of the trough to our north, but for the
most part, we will be holding with the status quo with afternoons in
the 90s and mornings in the upper 60s to middle 70s. There may yet be
some hope of the ridge finally breaking down by the middle of next
week, just outside this forecast package. For now, ensembles are not
too interested in a cooler pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions have returned for the afternoon and evening at all
terminals. Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue to bring
warm, moist air to the region. MVFR ceilings will develop before
sunrise Wednesday and last until around noon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Record High Temperatures

                     Sep 17

Austin Bergstrom....99 (2005*)
Austin Camp Mabry...99 (2021)
Del Rio............103 (2021)
San Antonio.........98 (1997)

* denotes previous years

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  95  73  96 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  97  79  98 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             73  95  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  97  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  98  78  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...05