Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 170737
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
237 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west through tonight. Low
pressure will track south of Cape Cod late tonight into early
Monday and will bring light snow to southern areas. High
pressure dominates the weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. The
next chance of precipitation occurs Wednesday night into
Thursday as low pressure approaches from the west. More
Canadian high pressure builds into the region Friday and
Saturday. Low pressure moves up to the New England coastline
next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Continental high pressure oozes in from the northwest today
allowing for sunny skies for most of the area through this
afternoon. Increasing mid and high level cloudiness arrive for
this afternoon. After a cold start highs will warm into the
upper teens/lower 20s north to lower to mid 30s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure shifts northeast tonight allowing for broad
isentropic lift along a warm front as low pressure organizing in
the Ohio Valley lifts northeast. Overnight lows will be in the
single digits north to teens for the coastal plain. Across
southern NH where there is more cloud cover expect lower 20s.

The wave of light snow arrives late tonight, reaching southern
NH after midnight and spreading into the remainder of the region
towards morning on Monday. The main surface low passes south of
Cape Cod so expect minor snow accumulations between a half inch
from about Berlin, to Augusta, to Rockland, with higher amounts
around 2-3 inches over southern NH and the southern coast of
Maine as the storm skirts south of the area. The snow will be
more of a nuisance than anything, and be characteristically
light and relatively dry with a low-moisture antecedent air mass
in place. Precipitation ends late in the evening Monday. Highs
warm into the upper teens/lower 20s north to lower to mid 30s
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ensemble and deterministic model solutions remain in decent
agreement on the long wave pattern through next week and the
upcoming weekend...lending increased forecaster confidence in
sensible weather details. The upper ridge will remain just off
the west coast with a deep trough over much of the CONUS. The
exception will be over the southeast where a flat ridge develops
early in the period. We`ll see a cold start to the forecast period
as the door is wide open for cold air to pour southward into New
England. Our initially quiet weather with the mean jet position
and storm track suppressed to our south will quickly give way to
a more active pattern for the last half of the work week. The
building ridge and rising heights over the southeast CONUS will
nudge the storm track further north leading to increasingly
unsettled weather along with a slow warming trend. In the
dailies...building high pressure with cold dry weather for
Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday Night and Thursday...low
pressure rides northeast from the Mississippi Valley into the
Great Lakes with a secondary low developing vicinity of the
DELMARVA and tracking east-northeast into coastal New England.
Thermal profiles suggest largely a snow event with potential for
moderate accumulations to occur. High pressure follows this
system for Thursday night through the first half of next
weekend. By late Sunday the next storm system should be
approaching the area with a wintry mix.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions expected to prevail thru tonight.
The exception will be stratus for HIE this morning which will
eventually dissipate. VFR ceilings will approach from the
southwest late tonight with any precipitation most likely
holding off until after this TAF cycle (thru 06Z Monday).

Long Term...

Mon Night...Sct MVFR psb in mtn -shsn.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Wind gusts remain at or above SCA conditions until
early this morning when the advisory will be dropped. After that
high pressure builds in bringing calm seas.

Long Term...

Mon Night - Tue...SCA`s psb outside the bays.

Thu...SCA`s are psb.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Hanes
LONG TERM...Schwibs


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