Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 062258

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
558 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

Cool and quiet weather is expected through the end of the
weekend with northwest winds gradually relenting at long last
as high pressure builds in. A warming trend will start Monday
with well above normal temperatures expected by the middle of
the week. A front approaches toward the end of the week bringing
our next chance of widespread precipitation, likely in the form
of rain.


Very quiet evening across the forecast area. Some mid level
clouds have moved into southern section per latest satellite
imagery, however this should be temporary.

Temperatures will fall more gradually tonight with a weak
gradient over the region and clouds in the north and mountains.
Expect readings to be near zero by morning in the north. Made
some minor adjustments in the near term to winds dew points,
otherwise a gradual decrease in the cloud cover can be expected
during the overnight hours with a low chance for a snow shower
in the north.

Prev Disc...
This afternoon, modeled upper air shows a broad
trough remains parked over the Canadian Maritimes. Its presence
is evident on visible satellite today with abundant cu and
stratocu blanketing much of the lower Great Lakes and northeast
CONUS, forming northwesterly streets which follow the wind
flow... and gravity waves orthogonal to wind flow. Locally, a
subtle cold front is crossing the region. While not bringing
much in the way of precipitation other than the usual scattered
snow shower activity over the Whites and toward the
International border, its passage is evident in the increasing
field of cloud cover spilling into central NH and other foothill
regions. Cold advection and a northwest breeze will continue
into tonight. Clouds will scatter to the peaks and ridges and
the PGF will finally relax late tonight, allowing temperatures
to drop into the single digits either side of zero (north and
sheltered valleys) to the low- teens along the southern coast
and portions of the urbanized Merrimack River valley.


After days of anticipation, maritime troughing finally relents
to high pressure building into New England from the Great Lakes
region. Flow aloft remains out of the north, however... so one
last cold front will cross the region on Sunday and give us one
last day of near or below normal temperatures before warming
this week (see long term discussion). Some stratocu will again
cling to the northwest- facing upslopes of the Whites and
international border and a stray snow shower cannot be ruled out.
Otherwise tomorrow will be a nice, late-winter day with highs
similar to today in the 20s (north) to low-30s (south and coast)
under partly to mostly sunny skies with a light northwest
breeze. Sunday night may be a touch cooler than tonight with a
slightly drier airmass but am looking at another cool night with
lows in the single digits either side of zero (northern and
sheltered valleys) to the low- teens along the coast and
portions of the southern interior.


Overview...The warming trend begins on Monday and continues through
Thursday with temperatures looking to peak on Wednesday and
Thursday. While we will not be setting any records, temperatures
will be some 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-week.
Significant precipitation continues to look elusive through the
period, but a frontal system could bring widespread showers to
the region toward the latter part of next week along with cooler

Impacts...Minimal. The warm temperatures mid-week in southern areas,
especially southern NH, could lead to some ice movement on rivers
and possibly lead to ice jams.

Forecast Details...This upcoming work week continues to look rather
quiet in terms of sensible weather. Monday will see mid-upper level
ridging begin to work its way into New England and bring along a
warmer air mass and a suppression in precipitation chances. The only
notable interruption in this pattern through Thursday is a weak
shortwave that looks to cross northern portions of the region
Monday night into Tuesday morning; it will have enough available
moisture and provide enough forcing to produce isolated to
scattered snow showers in the mountains and foothills with very
light accumulations possible.

Otherwise, the warm temperatures will be the story in the long term.
From Tuesday through Thursday, surface high pressure gradually
shifts east from the southeast U.S. to off the southeast U.S. coast,
allowing deep southwest flow to develop and allowing warmer air to
continue spilling into New England. Parts of southern NH should
reach 50 degrees on Tuesday, but Wednesday and Thursday look like
the warmest days. Highs on Wednesday are expected to range from the
upper 40s to mid 50s, and Thursday generally looks to be about 5 or
so degrees warmer than Wednesday....which gives much of southern NH
a real shot at 60 degrees. The only impact this taste of spring may
have is on area rivers, especially in southern NH; there could some
ice movement that could ultimately lead to ice jams.

By Thursday morning, the high should be off the mid-Atlantic coast
and a frontal system looks to approach from the west. This could be
our next chance for significant precipitation, but at this point, it
looks like isolated to scattered showers at best. The front slowly
treks through New England through Friday, returning temperatures to
near normal for Friday and the weekend.


Short Term...VFR prevails at all sites with light northwesterly
flow < 20 kts today and tomorrow turning light and variable to
calm tonight and tomorrow night. The only fly in the ointment
is upsloping leading to periods of MVFR for KHIE through

Long Term...Widespread VFR conditions expected through Thursday.
Could see some snow showers at HIE Monday night into Tuesday
with associated brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Light and variable
winds on Monday will become light northwesterly on Tuesday and
light south-southwesterly through Thursday. A frontal system
could bring widespread showers Thursday and Friday.


Short Term...Offshore flow continues through tonight and
tomorrow, gradually weakening. Wind gusts briefly approach SCA
threshold of 25 kts this evening over the outermost waters
however this would only be for a 2-4 hr period. Seas remain
quiet in the offshore regime as well, generally keeping at or
below 3 ft through tonight and diminishing further tomorrow.

Long Term...Broad high pressure dominates the waters through
Wednesday, keeping winds and seas below SCA criteria. Southwest
winds increase on Wednesday as high pressure slides east and
increase again on Thursday as a frontal system approaches from
the west and impinges on the high. Marginal SCA conditions look
likely from Wednesday night through the rest of the period,
especially over the outer waters.




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