Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191105
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
605 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Clearing skies/light winds have allowed temps to fall below the
freezing mark in several locations this early Tue morning. Temps
closer to daybreak will continue to fall into the mid/upper 20s
for most spots, as a large dome of high pressure settles into the
western/central Gulf Coast. As such, a Freeze Warning remains in
effect for all of the central TN Valley thru 9AM. The air mass
across the area will begin to gradually recover later today, as
sfc flow turns to the WSW. This should result in afternoon highs
climbing into the mid/perhaps upper 50S under mostly sunny skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The air mass will continue to gradually rebound tonight into Wed,
as high pressure along the Gulf Coast begins to drift eastward.
Weak upper ridging moving eastward across the Gulf region will aid
in this gradual warming trend, as lows into early Wed trend more
in the mid 30s/near 40F, before temps rebound further into the
upper 60s/near 70F later in the day. Cloud cover will then return
Wed night/Thu, as moisture below H7 filters back into the central
TN Valley out of the WNW. This should translate in lows early Thu
falling more into the lower/mid 40s, with temps climbing into the
mid/upper 60s that afternoon. Low-medium chances for showers
(20-40%) will then return to the forecast Thu night, as an upper
low/trough axis out of the mid/southern Plains moves into the
lower MS Valley region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
By Friday, a shortwave disturbance will bring increasing chances for
showers to the Tennessee Valley and areas south. Models are starting
to trend a bit farther north with the sfc low, and have resulted in
an increase in PoPs on Friday, now at 40-50%. This seems reasonable
given ensemble guidance showing total rainfall near 1/4". Highs
Friday will top out in the low 60s with dense cloud cover limiting
afternoon heating. Rain should come to an end Friday night as the
upper wave continues to shift east, and then high pressure will
settle in over the weekend. Saturday and Sunday look quite nice
with highs in the 60s. Sunday will remain the warmer day, with
some locations reaching the 70 degree mark. Should remain dry and
warm through most of Monday, but our next weather maker will be
knocking on the door by Monday evening. With better Gulf moisture
being advected ahead of this system, shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase late Monday into Tuesday morning. Will have
to keep an eye on this system, but for now there is no strong
signal for severe weather over the Tennessee Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
With a strong area of high pressure in place south of the area,
VFR conds are expected thru the TAF period. Light/var winds will
also turn WSW near 9kt with higher gusts late this morning.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ001>010-016.
TN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ076-096-097.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...09