752
FXUS63 KICT 161726
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1226 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry conditions for today and Saturday.

- Confidence for severe storms continues to increase for Sunday
  and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Currently have an upper low spinning over southeast ND/western
MN with water vapor imagery showing some upper energy lifting
across Eastern CO/Northwest KS. At the surface, cold front
extends from the Great Lakes Region through the Arklatex area.

Upper low will continue to migrate into the Great Lakes region
today with strong west/northwest mid/upper flow over the
Northern/Central Plains. Looking for conditions today fairly
close to what we had on Thursday, with gusty west/northwest
winds and temps a few degrees above normal, as highs top out in
the 80s. On Saturday, an upper impulse is expected to lift out
of the Desert Southwest and across the Southern Plains. This
will allow very rich Gulf moisture to lift north across East TX
into much of OK. Confidence is high that the better storm
chances will remain south of the forecast area on Sat.

For Sat night, some shortwave energy will track from Central CA
toward the Four Corners region by Sun morning, with a more
robust impulse expected to sink south across the Pacific NW and
into the Great Basin by Sun afternoon. Low level moisture will
quickly lift north Sat night into Sun morning as a warm front
also lifts north. We should see some elevated storms develop Sat
night as 850-700mb moisture transport quickly ramps-up. Any
storm that develops will have plenty of instability to work
with, so large hail will be likely with the stronger storms.
Upper impulse is expected to be lifting out across western
KS/western Nebraska by late Sun afternoon. Still considerable
uncertainty on where surface features will be situated by late
Sun afternoon. The NAM is further south with the warm front and
has it just north of Hwy 400 by 21z Sun, while the ECMWF and GFS
have the warm front situated along or north of I-70. In
addition, the NAM and ECMWF are further west with the dryline
compared to the GFS. Do have a slight lean to the more westerly
dryline placement. Another challenging aspect to this system
will be how much if any convection we see near or south of the
warm front Sun as it lifts north, as all models indicate strong
850-700mb theta-e advection remaining in place. Moisture and
instability will definitely not be an issue for any storms on
Sun and while effective shear is not extremely impressive, there
will be plenty given the extreme instability. Any storm that
can develop near the triple point may have an enhanced tornado
potential given more backed low level flow.

For Mon, the initial upper impulse is expected to close-off over
northwest Nebraska while a southern stream piece of energy
tracks across NM. There is decent agreement between the GFS and
ECMWF in a cold front/dryline stretching generally along or just
east of I-135 and will likely be the focus for afternoon/evening
storm development. Upper jet will be in place across more of the
forecast area than Sunday, and will setup better deep layer
shear for storms to work with. And just like Sunday, extreme
instability will once again be in place. So all severe hazards
can be expected with the stronger storms Mon afternoon and
evening.

While some storms may linger across southeast KS Tue morning, by
the afternoon hours, the better storm chances will be well east
of the forecast area, with strong northwest flow aloft in place
by Wed morning across the Plains. The will bring back a drier
and cooler airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. Gusty west/northwest winds currently observed
throughout the area will die down after sunset and gradually
turn around to the north/northeast by sunrise.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK