Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 041141
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
541 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
* Unseasonably warm across southeast Kansas today.

* Gradual cooling trend this week.

* Chances for showers and storms late Wednesday through late
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Today & Tuesday...

Looking at water vapor satellite and upper air analysis this
morning, a large and shallow upper trough is located across the
northwestern/northern CONUS. At the surface, a broad surface
low is located across the Oklahoma Panhandle with a cold front
entering northwest Kansas this morning. Unseasonably warm and
moist air is surging northward into eastern Kansas ahead of this
approaching cold front. As a result, a wide spread in afternoon
highs is expected today with many locations across central
Kansas struggling to reach 60 while locations across far
southeast Kansas will rise to near 80. Slight chances for a
stray shower or storm exist across far southeast Kansas this
evening into tonight, but capping will most likely hold strong
as low-level moisture gets shunted eastward by the arrival of
the aforementioned cold front. Better storm chances will likely
be well into Missouri later tonight. Despite persistent
northerly/northeasterly winds on Tuesday, temperatures will
remain mild with most locations across the CWA likely to be in
the 60s during the afternoon hours.

Mid/Late Week...

Both deterministic and ensemble global models have had some
consistency in showing precipitation developing ahead of strong
southwesterly jet nosing into the south-central CONUS late this
week. Almost all of the ensemble members from the GEFS and EPS show
measurable precipitation from late Wednesday though late Friday
across the eastern half of Kansas. Essentially, there is tentative
optimism in the potential for measurable rainfall later this
week, particularly for locations along and east of the I-135
corridor. This rainfall would be especially helpful as many
areas haven`t seen at least one-tenth of an inch of rain over
the past month or so. There are still some fine details that
need to be worked out over the next few days, so be sure to stay
tuned to future forecasts.

Cuellar

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

A cold front was moving south and east across the area this
morning and was situated from near KSLN to KHUT just before 12Z.
Breezy southeast winds were common ahead of the front with
breezy northwest winds in it`s wake. The front will impact KICT
in the 15-16Z window and KCNU by late afternoon or early
evening. Some MVFR stratus is expected to develop this morning
likely impacting KCNU before mixing out or moving just east of
the area by early to mid afternoon. Isolated showers or an
isolated storm may develop along the front in far eastern Kansas
but probabilities remain too low to mention at KCNU at this
time. Wind speeds will diminish to 10-15 knots this evening with
northerly winds persisting overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Fire weather concerns will be significantly diminished this
week due to cooler temperatures, higher relative humidity
values, and increasing confidence in the potential for wetting
rainfall across the area later this week.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...JC


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