000
FXUS63 KICT 180012
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
712 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Tonight-Friday:
Persistence forecast tonight with little change from previous
days. On Friday, expect more wind and deeper mixing over west half
of forecast area, where temperatures will be slightly higher and
dew points a bit lower. This will result in little change in heat
indices, so no headlines will be issued.

Friday night-Saturday:
Some concern with approaching boundary for storms late Friday
night and early on Saturday in central KS. Low level drying ahead
of the boundary will likely preclude surface based convection, but
suspect storms will be much more likely behind the front where
surface dew points will be considerably higher. Except for low
level moisture, it is otherwise favorable set up for storms and
concur with SPC day two outlook. If storms were to develop in
northwest KS, storm chances would increase across the forecast
area, otherwise if storms initially develop over northeast KS,
then chances are less certain. Temperatures less certain on
Saturday, especially in central KS where skies could end up fairly
cloudy and also be located north of outflow boundary/front.

Sunday:
Official forecast will be dry during the day, although fairly wide
range of model solutions depending on where front is during the
day, strength of the cap, etc. Conditions could range from dry,
sunny and fairly warm ahead of the boundary, to storms, clouds and
rain cooled air. Confidence in the forecast during the day is
fairly low. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Upper trough rotates through the area early in the period, with
northwest upper flow developing for the latter half of this
period. Still some uncertainty on timing per ensembles, but there
should be a period or two of dry and cooler weather. Return low
level flow along with modest west-south west upper flow will
likely set stage for isolated to scattered showers and/or storms
around sunrise plus or minus a few hours. Temperatures should
also gradual increase throughout the period. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 709 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

* Gusty winds and LLWS are the primary concerns over the next 24
  hours

A frontal boundary continues to edge closer to central Kansas this
evening, and may reach the I-70 corridor, of north-central Kansas,
by tomorrow. South of the front, gusty winds and LLWS will be the
primary concerns for our area over the next 24 hrs (very similar
to the conditions we`ve had over the past couple of days). By late
Friday afternoon, a very conditional threat of a few TSRA may
develop near, and just north, of the front`s location. Confidence
is very low at this time, and I`ll hold off on any mention in the
TAFs for now.

EXTENDED PLANNING OUTLOOK: There may be at least a modest increase
in the risk of SHRA and TSRA over the weekend, but confidence in
timing and location is low. It will significantly hinge on the
above-mentioned front`s progress over the next few days.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75 101  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      75 104  74  99 /   0   0  10   0
Newton          75 102  74  97 /   0   0  10   0
ElDorado        74  97  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   73  97  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         75 104  72  97 /   0   0  10   0
Great Bend      74 102  73  97 /   0   0  10   0
Salina          76 107  75  99 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       74 104  74  98 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     73  97  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         74  97  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            74  97  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    73  97  71  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RM