000
FXUS63 KICT 030820
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
320 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

Early this morning, a complex of storms that originated on the High
Plains late yesterday evening continues to move across central and
south central Kansas. This mesoscale convective system (MCS)
originally tracked eastward into central Kansas and then
southeastward toward south central Kansas following an axis of
higher buoyancy and, in particular, DCAPE above 1500 J/kg during
the late evening. This led to a damaging wind threat across
portions of the forecast area through early this morning with
several measured severe wind gusts both beneath the convective
updrafts as well as along a gust front that gradually pulled
ahead of the main complex of storms. Over the past few hours, a
weakening trend has been noted in the convective activity owing to
a gradual increase in convective inhibition across the forecast
area. With that said, latest mesoscale analysis shows a noticeable
decrease in pressure over the past couple of hours behind the
remaining showers and storms, which could indicate a continued
risk of some elevated wind speeds with a few stronger gusts
through the early morning hours in a potential weak wake-low
pressure type scenario.

A fairly challenging forecast for the rest of today. Lingering
outflow from the overnight/early morning convection combined with
ample moisture and heating during the day today with time to recover
could provide enough ingredients for some thunderstorm development
this afternoon across south central Kansas. Many of the short-term
and hi-res models show some variant of this scenario, placing the
best chance of seeing storms this afternoon/evening across southwest
portions of the forecast area in south central Kansas. With modest
shear and CAPE  of 2000+ J/kg across this area, a few strong to
severe storms will be possible in any thunderstorm activity later
today. Otherwise, it should be slightly cooler today than previous
days, though still above average for early July with highs reaching
into the low to mid 90s.

Looking ahead to the 4th of July holiday on Saturday, trended
inherited PoPs down during the day with a continued lack of large
scale focus and with noticeably less moisture availability than
today. Thinking most areas will remain dry, though models do hint
at the possibility of some afternoon showers and storms in
southeast Kansas during the afternoon. Confidence in specific
placement at this time remains rather low.

Kept low-end chances of storms in the forecast for Sunday, though
the most likely scenario at this time is that the better chances for
showers/storms will be on the fringes of the forecast area, both in
central and western Kansas and also in northeast Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

As the previous discussion mentioned, the weak upper ridging over
the central U.S. is expected to retrograde across the southwest U.S.
during the late part of the weekend and into early next week. An
upper trough looks to form across western Kansas or west
Oklahoma/north Texas on Monday which will result in continued
chances for showers and storms Monday and Tuesday as it begins to
slide eastward. Looking ahead towards the middle to end of the work
week next week, broad upper ridging is progged to return to the
central CONUS as drier air settles overhead. As a result, kept the
forecast dry beginning on Wednesday through the end of the work week
as temperatures once again climb back up to well above normal values
and a warming trend ensues with accompanying southerly and
downslope flow throughout this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

Complex of strong to marginally severe TSRA is currently moving
across central KS at this time. As the early morning continues,
expect the storm complex to continue to propagate to the east-
southeast with wind gusts to 35-40 kts still possible.   So will go
with prevailing SHRA/VCTS for most of the central KS taf locations
including KSLN/KRSL and KHUT. Will also have prevailing SHRA/VCTS
for KICT and KCNU in a few hours as well as the complex moves to the
SE. Will also mention some variable wind gusts to 40kts and MVFR
vsbys in a tempo group for a few hours as the complex moves across
most locations.

Most of this complex will move out of the area by 11 to 12z, with
VFR conditions after that after sunrise.

There is a chance of isolated TSRA redeveloping over south central
KS for the afternoon hours on Fri, but with the morning complex
working things over, pinpointing location of the afternoon storm
chances is too low to mention in the tafs at this time.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    94  72  92  70 /  20  20  10   0
Hutchinson      93  70  91  68 /  20  20  10  10
Newton          92  70  90  69 /  20  20  10   0
ElDorado        91  70  89  69 /  20  20  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   93  70  91  70 /  30  30  10   0
Russell         93  70  92  68 /  20  20  10  20
Great Bend      94  69  92  68 /  20  20  10  10
Salina          93  71  92  69 /  20  20  10  10
McPherson       92  69  91  68 /  20  20  10  10
Coffeyville     92  71  89  70 /  30  20  10   0
Chanute         91  71  89  70 /  30  20  10   0
Iola            91  71  89  70 /  30  20  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    91  71  88  71 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...Ketcham