000
FXUS63 KICT 191141
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
641 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020

Temperatures...

Will be battling a shallow cool airmass through about mid-week,
which will play havoc on forecast high temperatures. Fairly
confident the cool air will win out today and Tuesday, with
forecast high temperatures mostly in the 50s. However, if the more
pessimistic NAM and WRFARW verify, temperatures may struggle to
reach 50 degrees both days, which is a very real possibility given
the likelihood of widespread clouds. Wednesday is a big wildcard,
with the warm sector attempting to surge north across the region.
For now went with a model blend, with low-mid 60s across central
KS and 70s southern KS. However, if shallow cool air wins out, 50s
are likely central KS, with a sharp gradient of 60s-70s into far
southern KS.

Precipitation...

Could see a few hours of light drizzle across far southeast KS
this morning. Any amounts will likely only be a trace. For
Tuesday, strong warm advection commencing atop the shallow cool
air should support patchy to areas of drizzle across mainly
southern, central, and eastern KS. By late Tuesday afternoon and
evening, should see scattered showers/thunderstorms develop across
southeast and southern KS, as a cool front approaches from the
northwest and stalls across northern OK. This will be the 1st
opportunity in quite some time for much needed meaningful
rainfall, with amounts around 0.50" possible, especially across
far southeast and southern KS. For Wednesday, depending on which
model solution verifies, a good part of the day may have patchy to
areas of drizzle spreading north across the region once again, as
strong warm/moist advection commences north of the remnant
frontal zone approaching from the south. The NAM is most bullish
with this scenario.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020

High confidence in above normal temperatures in the 70s-80s and
strong/gusty south winds Thursday, ahead of a strong cold front
approaching from the northwest. Given forecast mixing values and
pressure gradient, confident a wind advisory will eventually be
needed for Thursday. By Thursday evening and night, strong frontal
forcing in concert with unseasonably rich low-level moisture
should support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in
vicinity of the advancing cold front sweeping southeast across the
region. Widespread strong to severe storms appear unlikely given
relatively modest combination of instability and deep layer shear.
This will however be another opportunity for much needed
meaningful rainfall, with widespread 0.25-0.50" possible.

In wake of the front Thursday night and Friday, gusty northwest
winds will usher much cooler air southward once again, with
daytime highs in the 50s Fri-Sat, and lows in the 20s-30s. By
Sunday-Monday, deterministic and ensemble consensus supports an
unseasonably cold, winter-like airmass spreading south across the
region, as a deep trough digs across the western CONUS. For now
went with highs in the 40s-50s by Monday, although raw output from
the GFS and ECMWF would support 20s-40s for highs and teens-30s
for lows early to mid next week. Deterministic runs are even
showing potential for some wintry precipitation across the region
early next week. Lots of uncertainty to say the least, so stay
tuned for later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020

Main issues will be erosion and redevelopment of MVFR ceilings.
Appears that the boundary layer moisture will be eroded during the
day, but model consensus keeps 925-850 millibar layer fairly
moist until late this afternoon. So expect the low stratus to
give way to broken stratocumulus this afternoon. As low level flow
veers to the southeast, boundary layer moisture will be pushed
uphill later tonight. Would expect at least MVFR ceilings to
redevelop during the night. IFR conditions are possible near the
end of the forecast at KCNU, KICT and KHUT but confidence is not
high enough to mention at this time. -Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020

Strong and gusty south winds are expected Thursday, which will
support high to very high grassland fire danger across the region.
Marginal relative humidities should keep fire danger will below red
flag/critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  42  57  51 /   0  10  20  40
Hutchinson      53  41  56  46 /   0   0  20  30
Newton          53  41  55  48 /   0   0  20  30
ElDorado        52  41  56  51 /  10  10  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   53  43  60  56 /  10  10  30  40
Russell         53  39  58  42 /   0   0  10  10
Great Bend      53  40  57  43 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          53  39  56  43 /   0   0  10  20
McPherson       53  40  55  44 /   0   0  20  20
Coffeyville     51  45  63  58 /  30  20  30  50
Chanute         50  42  60  54 /  20  10  40  60
Iola            50  42  59  52 /  20  10  40  60
Parsons-KPPF    50  44  62  57 /  30  20  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...ADK