


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
541 FXUS63 KICT 131134 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 634 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some pockets of heavy rain are possible over southeast Kansas. - Below normal temperatures are expected again today then a slight warming trend to start the week. - Opportunities for rain continue through much of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Showers with an embedded thunderstorm or two were ongoing over southeast KS early this morning and this activity was located under a subtle shortwave trough and within the entrance region of subtle upper jet. The best low-lvl moisture transport should start to focus the more robust activity further east after 09-10Z. PWATs around 2 inches over southeast KS are helping to produce efficient rainfall under slow moving showers and storms but elevated CAPE wasn`t too impressive. We could start to see some ponding of water or some minor low-land flooding, especially if convection lingers through much of the day over parts of southeast KS. The best chances for seeing showers and storms lingering will remain over far southeast KS where we remain weakly capped and the subtle sfc low remains nearly stationary or moves very slowly eastward. Limited insolation within a post-frontal regime will result in another seasonably cool day with highs in the low 80s in far southeast KS while more typical highs in the low 90s could materialize in parts of central KS with some breaks in the clouds and lower dewpoint temperatures. Much of the area could get a break from the precipitation on Monday- Tuesday as the pesky subtle upper system drifts northeast away from the area. Another subtle upper wave is progged to be right on it`s heels arriving over southeast KS late Monday into Tuesday. We continue to see some differences in where this feature will track but some low pops were maintained in southeast KS wile the remainder of the area is expected to remain dry until Tuesday night. More typical highs are anticipated Mon-Tue with 90s returning areawide by Tue. By late Tue night, a shortwave trough over the Northern Plains may help drive a frontal boundary southward. This front could provide a focus for showers and storms late Tue night. Wed-Sat...A frontal boundary may bisect the region on Wed as we remain on the southern periphery of the stronger mid-lvl flow. Showers and storms will remain possible along and north of the boundary Wed night into Thu as a shortwave trough translates eastward across the Central Plains. Cooler, below normal temperatures are expected in the wake of the front with most areas seeing highs in the upper 80s on Thu. This cooldown is expected to be short-lived with rising heights/increasing thickness supporting rising temperatures as we move into Fri-Sat. Mid and upper 90s may return for much of the area as we move into next weekend with isolated diurnally driven storms lingering over the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Showers impacting southeast Kansas have diminished but we could see isolated or widely scattered showers redevelop as we move into the early afternoon hours. KCNU would be the only TAF site that could be impacted but better coverage of showers may remain east of KCNU. Light and variable winds will prevail across the area with VFR expected. Any shower could result in brief MVFR cigs and visibility but confidence remains too low to mention at this time. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...MWM