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000
FXUS64 KJAN 232351
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
651 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:

Continued presence of the frontal boundary and very moist boundary
layer conditions will result in more widespread MVFR/IFR category
stratus with lowest ceilings in the late night to early morning
hours. SHRA/TSRA potential will increase Tuesday as perturbed
southwesterly flow aloft interacts with a moist/unstable airmass.
Surface wind will become southerly and gusty at times Tuesday. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: Mid afternoon surface analysis had a nearly
stationary frontal boundary across our southeast zones. The
stratus north of the boundary has persisted and is not expected to
totally dissipate before expanding again tonight. Visible
satellite imagery did show breaks in the cloud cover along and
south of the boundary. Heating in this area will lead to a few
storms this afternoon and evening. Local radars did show a few
storms over east Mississippi from Noxubee county and to the south.
This activity is expected to exhibit a diurnal trend and
dissipate later this evening. Another warmer than normal night is
on tap and despite the stalled cold front to the southeast as
morning lows will be in the mid to upper 60s at most locations.
Tuesday the stalled frontal boundary will return north as a weak
warm front associated with a developing low pressure system over
the Plains. This will lead to deep moisture increasing back across
our CWA. A shortwave lifting north across Louisiana and Arkansas
during the afternoon is expected to help develop more intense
convection. Considering our environmental parameters, isolated
severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and quarter sized
hail will be possible over our whole CWA during the afternoon and
evening hours. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out but, the more
favorable conditions are expected over the western portions of our
CWA. Afternoon highs will be close to normal in the mid to upper
80s. /22/

Tuesday Night through Monday...

An active weather pattern is expected Tuesday through Thursday. A
mid-upper level low will form out of the Plains and track NE/E
Tuesday. This will increase moisture throughout the ArkLaMiss region
for several days. A cold front associated with this front will begin
to approach the region on Wednesday. This where things can get
tricky. Although we are technically still in spring time, lately the
atmosphere has been in a summer time like pattern. Models struggle
sometime trying to depict diurnal showers and thunderstorms
especially ahead of a front. The caveat with this particular system
Wednesday is, if the aforementioned low pressure speeds up some, rain
showers early Wednesday are possible and that will help clear
whatever lingering instability is in the atmosphere. This means that
we may not be able to heat up as much and destabilize limiting the
severe weather threat. On the other hand, if the low continues to
track at a slower pace, rain will hold off and be more associated
with the front. This means that we will be able to heat up enough
increasing instability which will encourage thunderstorm development.
Lapse rates are pretty steep and the moisture is there so because of
that will continue the Marginal Risk for Wednesday with the main
threats being damaging wind gusts and hail. Because there will be
alot of moisture in the atmosphere Wednesday, a few storms may
produce brief heavy downpours resulting in increase rainfall
amounts. This can lead to some localized flash flooding. The
heaviest QPF values remain north and south of us so will hold off
mentioning anything flood related in the HWO but may be added in
later forecast packages.

By Thursday, the front will begin to sag south and along the front,
m mainly showers are expected but can`t rule out a storm or two
across the east and southeast. By Thursday evening, the front is
expected to be just south of our area and cooler air will filter in
behind it suppressing any lingering rain for the evening. Cooler air
will continue to settle in and High pressure will take control
across the southeast Friday. Dry weather will return Friday and last
through Monday. High temperatures will return to more normal values
thanks to the rain and cloud cover. Highs will range from the mid
70s to upper 80s throughout the week./JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  86  70  83 /  23  77  24  90
Meridian      66  86  68  85 /  32  80  17  87
Vicksburg     67  88  70  83 /   6  81  37  91
Hattiesburg   67  86  71  85 /  42  74  18  90
Natchez       67  87  71  83 /  26  75  27  90
Greenville    66  85  69  80 /   4  75  56  93
Greenwood     66  85  70  82 /   5  75  44  93

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$