Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 220231 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
931 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The few light showers that developed in the south late this
afternoon dissipated before sunset. Morning temperatures Sunday
will be several degrees warmer than this morning and lows will
continue to be warmer than normal. No changes were needed to the
current forecast./22/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Sunday:  With a big ridge of high pressure holding
firm over the Southeastern US, dry weather continues to persist
over our area. A surge of increased low-level moisture is pushing
into the southern part of the CWA today as low-level flow is out
of the southeast and moving out of the Gulf. Some isolated showers
may move into our southern tier of counties this afternoon, but
this activity will wane this evening. Skies will clear overnight.
With the area of increased moisture moving around the ridge and
into our western counties/parishes, temperatures will fall into
the low 70s in that part of the CWA. The rest of the area will be
able to fall a bit further into the 60s as greater radiational
cooling will be possible. Sunday will be much like today with high
pressure in place. Highs will be in the upper 80s/low 90s again.
The surge of moisture will move westward though and thus no precip
is expected tomorrow. /10/

Monday through the week:  Not much change will occur with the
overall synoptic pattern through the period. The region will
remain under mid-level ridging through the long term. This should
keep mostly dry conditions across the area. Models continue to
show a front trying to drop south into the region Monday into
Tuesday. This might bring some rain to the northern part of the
forecast area before the front fizzles and does not make it any
further south. Toward the end of the week, a surface low develops
across the Southern Plains, which may bring moisture up from the
Gulf and allow for some rain in the western part of the forecast
area. However, in both scenarios through the week, significant
rain is not expected so dry conditions will continue. There also
looks to be no sign of autumn in sight for the region.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s through the period with
overnight lows providing some, but little, relief with readings in
the upper 60s or lower 70s. The one bright spot in the forecast
appears to be the fact that mixing should occur through the day
and dewpoints don`t remain very high and into the 70s. There
appears to be 60s dewpoints present through the period, which
should at least allow the warm temperatures to not feel so
oppressive and allow for overnight temperatures to cool some.
While it might not bring joy to many, it is one small positive
that perhaps summer might be slowly loosening its grip. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through Monday. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  89  69  91 /   0   0   2   4
Meridian      64  90  66  92 /   0   0   2   3
Vicksburg     70  91  70  93 /   0   0   3   8
Hattiesburg   65  88  66  92 /   0   3   3   2
Natchez       69  89  69  91 /   0   1   3   5
Greenville    69  91  70  91 /   0   1   4  25
Greenwood     68  91  70  90 /   0   1   4  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

10/22/28


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