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000
FXUS64 KJAN 081039
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
539 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Today and tonight...

Our region is squeezed between an upper ridge over the central
plains and an upper low over the northeast and has resulted in
persistent deep northwesterly flow which has allowed for seasonably
warm temperatures. This should continue today with high temperatures
likely reaching the low to mid 90s. A cold front attendant to the
low pressure system in the northeast sweeps across the area from
north to south this afternoon. Prefrontal dry air (PWAT >1 inch
and dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s) will likely reduce
severe potential and limit coverage. Still, thunderstorms should
develop this afternoon aided by the cold front and diurnal heating
and should generally stay concentrated near the front or to areas
with greater moisture available. Additionally, some smoke
associated with wildfires in Quebec should spread into the region
behind the front and may create hazy conditions across northern
areas, however air quality shouldn`t be affected. Scattered rain
showers will likely continue tonight and into Friday morning aided
by post frontal moisture./SAS/

Friday through Wednesday: Come Friday our CWA will still be on the
southwest periphery of a large closed low centered over the New
England states with a stalled backdoor cold front nearly into
central Mississippi. This will result in cooler and drier air over
out northeast that will limit convection while a warm moist airmass
continues over the southwest half of our CWA. The stalled boundary
will remain the focus for mainly diurnally driven convection that
will flare up during the afternoon and dissipate during the early
evening hours. Saturday an upper level disturbance within the
northwest flow aloft will be dropping over the central Plains while
our stalled front lifts back to the northeast placing our whole CWA
back into a warm moist airmass. The upper level disturbance is
expected to develop vigorous convection upstream of our CWA Saturday
afternoon that may survive moving into the western portions of our
CWA by late afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms capable of
damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible generally over the
southwest half of our CWA late Saturday afternoon and evening. This
potential for severe development will wain through the evening with
the loss of daytime heating. By Sunday morning the upper level
disturbance will be shifting east of Mississippi but a potent
shortwave dropping out of Canada will help develop another closed
low over the Great Lakes region by Sunday afternoon. This closed low
will continue to deepen Sunday night into Monday and help support a
cold front dropping into our northwest zones Sunday night that looks
to clear our southeast zones by Monday evening. It`s possible a
strong storm or two will develop along the cold front Monday before
the front pushes south of our CWA. Models differ significantly
Tuesday through Wednesday as mid level ridging tries to strengthen
over our region from the southwest while the large closed low
slowly shift northeast. It appears that the Monday cold front will
lift back to the north Tuesday into Wednesday and serve as a focus
for mostly diurnally driven convection. This will shift our greatest
rain chances to the north and result in warmer temperatures each day
going into the end of the week. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Isolated, shallow, patchy fog is being reported across the area
and this should not affect visibilities. This should clear
shortly after day break. VFR conditions prevail today with light
northerly winds. Scattered thunderstorms are likely this
afternoon, especially across northern sites. Rain and storms
likely linger into tonight and Friday morning, gradually moving
south./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  67  91  68 /  20  30  20  10
Meridian      93  66  89  65 /  30  20  10   0
Vicksburg     94  69  92  70 /  10  20  20  10
Hattiesburg   94  69  93  68 /  10  20  30  10
Natchez       93  68  92  69 /  10  10  30  10
Greenville    92  68  89  68 /  20  30  10  10
Greenwood     93  67  88  66 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS20/22/SAS20