594
FXUS64 KJAN 061845
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1245 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - There is a slight to marginal risk for severe weather on
    Saturday with wind and hail being the primary threats.

  - The most widespread and significant rainfall event since
    January is expected for the entire area.

  - There is potential for storms during the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The southeast ridge will be the predominant feature that will
influence our weather over the next week with continued southerly
flow supporting above normal temperatures and moist conditions. This
will precondition the thermal environment ahead of a trailing cold
front progged to push through Saturday. Activity initiates along
this boundary in the vicinity of central Arkansas and grows upscale
as it pushes south into the moist unstable air over our area. Given
the weak forcing, this is more similar to a warm season set up,
rather than what is typical of early spring. So, the line should be
primarily forced by the cold pool. Now that we are solidly in the
CAM window however, there is increasing confidence for a prefrontal
discrete mode amid a favorable hail environment. The deep shear is
on the weaker side, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong -10C -
-30C CAPE raise concerns for greater hail threat. Shear only needs
 to be sufficient in this thermal environment, which likely looks
 to be the case. Considering this, have opted to increase
 emphasis on messaging hail threat. High cloud bases and weak low
 level shear look to limit tornado threat. However, if a low level
 shear vector lines up just right with sufficient low level
 moisture, as can sometimes happen in our area, wouldn`t rule out
 a tornado either, particular in any supercells that can become
 established. Considering the limitations of the low level
 environment, would expect a primarily wind/hail threat. A
 slight/marginal risk is being maintained and has been expanded to
 capture the prefrontal discrete mode.

Now that we are more firmly in the near term CAM window with more
guidance agreement, there is some concern for a localized heavy
rainfall threat to materialize, especially where stronger low level
moist transport vectors intersect the convective boundary over
northwest portions of the area Saturday. It seems to be this area
where cell motion/propagation vectors will potentially have the most
balance for a slower convective system speed, resulting in a few
hours of heavy rainfall rates. Even with the recent dry weather,
these rates may be sufficient for at least minor low-land flooding.
This of course assumes that a convective system is maintained, which
as of now looks very likely. Later in the day, the cold pool will
likely overwhelm the system motion as the weak shortwave trough
shears eastward leaving behind diminished lift. With all of this in
mind, will continue to message limited flood risk in our northwest
to align with WPC messaging and recent HREF guidance.

Not much airmass change is expected in the wake of the front as a
cut off upper low over Baja reinforces ridging over our area once
again early next week. Southerly flow, and therefore moisture, is
maintained. The aforementioned upper low becomes the focus of our
next weather maker around middle of next week. As of this morning,
guidance has shown a less phased, more southern solution for this
feature, and thus a more suppressed convective environment. This
introduces uncertainty regarding the magnitude of severe weather.
Despite SPC`s introduction of a slight risk for this time frame,
will refrain from introducing a local graphic at this time. Expect
future updates regarding this potential event.
/SAS/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

This morning`s low stratus deck continues to steadily erode, with
a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings across the region. All sites are
expected to return to VFR within the next hour or two, but a
resurgence of MVFR, to locally IFR, stratus decks is anticipated
late tonight through most of the morning Saturday. Southerly winds
will be gusty at times during the daytime hours today and again
on Saturday. Isolated to scattered SHRA and TS are possible
through tonight. More widespread TS activity is expected beginning
Saturday afternoon and spreading southeastward across the area in
Saturday night. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  82  63  74 /  10  90  80  80
Meridian      64  82  61  74 /  10  70  80  90
Vicksburg     67  83  63  74 /  20  90  80  80
Hattiesburg   68  84  66  78 /  10  60  70  90
Natchez       68  83  64  76 /  20  90  80  80
Greenville    67  75  59  68 /  40 100  80  50
Greenwood     67  78  61  72 /  30  90  90  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS20/SAS20/DL