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000
FXUS64 KJAN 041113
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
513 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Fog formation is very patchy this morning with none of the main
TAF sites experiencing any issues at this time. All sites are
under VFR conditions which is expected to continue throughout the
TAF period. Winds will be very light today and generally out of
the north-northeast. /10/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight:

With a surface high moving across the area, conditions are calm and
quiet this morning. There is a little bit of patchy fog developing
in the river valleys which can be seen on satellite currently and
this is expected to spread through the remaining early morning hours
particularly over the ArkLaMiss delta. A limited threat for fog will
remain in the HWO as this could bring impacts to drivers this
morning. After sunrise though, expect this fog to burn off quickly
and clear sunny skies will continue across the region. Under a dry
spring-like airmass, we tend to overachieve on temperatures and so
forecast highs were bumped up a bit for today. Highs in the upper
60s to to low 70s are expected. Then going into tonight, the surface
high begins to erode away and heights begin to fall ahead of the
next system. Overnight lows will fall into the lower 40s with
increasing cloud cover from the west. /10/

Friday through mid-week...

The region will begin under shortwave ridging aloft but this will
dampen as another fast moving upper trough will swing through the
region Friday into Friday night, and a surface low crosses the
northern Gulf of Mexico. This will bring some rain to the region
through Saturday morning before the trough and surface low track
east. After this, high pressure at the surface and aloft will resume
over the region through much of the week. Models seem to be in good
agreement that upper ridging will become firmly established across
the region as a 590dm ridge will set up across the north central
Gulf. Several fronts look to try to drop south late in the week but
have trouble getting too far against this ridge and much of the
precipitation remains across the Ohio Valley. Conditions will be
slightly cooler behind the Friday system but temperatures should
remain in the 60s. Highs will gradually increase through the week
into the 70s, and even some 80s possible by late in the week.
Overnight lows will be cool initially, with readings in the 30s and
40s, before moderating into the 50s and 60s. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  42  68  44 /   0   0  15  20
Meridian      71  42  69  43 /   0   0   8  20
Vicksburg     71  42  67  45 /   0   0  25  19
Hattiesburg   71  43  70  45 /   0   0  12  31
Natchez       69  44  67  46 /   0   0  26  27
Greenville    68  43  62  42 /   0   1  25  12
Greenwood     70  44  65  43 /   0   0  16  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$