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000
FXUS64 KJAN 132026
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
326 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Friday: The convection earlier today has stabilized the
atmosphere enough that the flood and severe threat have ended.
However, the upper level trough over our region will continue to
help develop isolated to scattered storms across the CWA through
early evening. There will be a lull in convection later this evening
lasting past midnight but, model consensus suggests redevelop
upstream of our CWA that will move in from the northwest prior to
sunrise. This convection is expected to spread across the whole CWA
from northwest to southeast. This will play havoc on temperatures
similar to today. Temperatures are expected to be held cooler than
normal mitigating heat stress concerns. Our moist airmass will
continue though and locally heavy downpours will accompany the
strongest storms. /22/

Active weather is expected through the next few days as the upper
level only slightly modifies.

The ArkLaMiss will remain on the eastern periphery of a steep and
stagnant upper ridge that is centered over the desert SW. This
will result in an upper level NW flow pattern for the MS Valley.
With significant moisture remaining in place across the region
(Pwats ranging from 1.5"-2", subtle disturbance embedded in the
upper flow pattern will continue to produce several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms on Friday evening through early Sunday.
As the confidence in showers and thunderstorms through the period
increases the confidence in temperatures reaching hazardous levels
in a broad enough area continues to decrease. Therefore, the
limited threat of heat stress was removed from the HWO. However,
highs could reach the mid 90s in areas in the west if they aren`t
impacted by showers or storms.

Although the upper pattern will remain relatively unchanged, a
surface front will push through the region late in the weekend,
allowing some drier air to filter into the region from the north.
The drier air associated with this front will result in lower
humidity and rain chances as we get into early next week. Highs
through this period will be cooler than normal only reaching the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees Monday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Most of the TSRA activity has moved away from TAF sites this aftn
but there wl remain the potential for vcty SHRA through 00Z. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail away from convection through
09Z Friday. After 09Z, MVFR cigs are expected to develop cntrl
and nw along with scattered to numerous TSRA moving in from the
nw. VFR conditions are expected to continue elsewhere until Friday
afternoon when additional TSRA development is anticipated. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  87  73  90 /  20  89  38  53
Meridian      73  88  72  91 /  24  69  48  65
Vicksburg     75  89  74  92 /  25  75  30  51
Hattiesburg   74  88  73  90 /  24  76  50  66
Natchez       75  89  74  93 /  23  51  22  51
Greenville    74  88  73  91 /  59  79  33  49
Greenwood     73  87  71  91 /  35  74  34  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

JPM3