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000
FXUS64 KLCH 032028
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
328 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are firing up across the CWA
this afternoon and should continue to expand in coverage through
the next few hours prior to sunset. Latest SPC Day 1 outlook has
outlined nearly the entire CWA, apart from the far NE corner, in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather today. Several of these ongoing
storms are showing signs of producing hail as well as gusty
winds, and these will continue to be the main threats through this
evening. Otherwise, may have to keep an eye out for some
localized flooding later this afternoon into this evening as the
lack of any real steering flow could result in localized
torrential rainfall over a short period of time.

Most of this afternoon`s convection is expected to last through
sunset, and should begin to taper off around the 9-10 PM time
frame, although a few showers could linger thereafter. Otherwise,
tonight once again looks quiet and seasonal with lows in the mid
60s to low 70s.

Tomorrow and Monday, a general weakness aloft will continue to
linger overhead which in combination with a moist and unstable
airmass will once again result in scattered to widespread
afternoon convection. For tomorrow, rain chances look best across
the western half of the region, as a weak upper level impulse is
expected to slide into the region from the west becoming a focus
for convection. Rain chances look to shift offshore tomorrow
evening into early Monday as the impulse slides south, which the
18Z HRRR seems to be picking up on fairly well. For Monday,
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are once again
expected through the afternoon, as the weakness aloft continues to
interact with the moist airmass overhead. Monday`s set up will
likely be fairly similar to today, with convection firing up in
the afternoon and dying off after sunset area-wide.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

The mid to upper level pattern will be dominated by a large longwave
trough over the Eastern U.S. and weak mid to upper level ridging
over Mexico/Texas with general west to northwest flow aloft over our
region. General instability and intermittent upper level
disturbances within the flow will be enough to keep at least
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Areas of best
chances will be across the coastal waters and near the coast during
the early morning hours to near daybreak, and more concentrated with
the sea breeze front moving inland during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Blended guidance shows generally a 40-50% chance
for Tuesday and Wednesday over most of the inland and coastal waters
locations. Morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 80s, somewhat limited due to the increased
cloud cover.

The shower and thunderstorm chances gradually diminish by Thursday
through Saturday as the mid to upper level ridge from the west moves
eastward over the Western Gulf of Mexico/East Texas region and
increases stability across the mid to upper level regions. Shower
and thunderstorm chances diminish over Southeast Texas/Western
Louisiana region Thursday and Friday, and areawide by Saturday.
Morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and afternoon highs a
little warmer near 90 to the lower 90s.

08/DML

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin
developing across the region through the next couple of hours as
daytime heating really gets going. Some of these storms will be
capable of heavy rain and frequent lightning. Kept VCTS at all
terminals to account for this, as timing/location will be too
sporadic and hard to predict further. This convection should
taper off around 00-02Z, with VFR conditions and light north winds
continuing overnight into tomorrow morning.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

A weak pressure gradient will allow for mainly light and variable
winds and low seas through the weekend into early next week.
There will be a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. Storms
in the near shore waters and coastal lakes and bays will be
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Storms in the
outer waters will be mainly during the overnight into early
morning hours. Winds and seas will be higher near any storms,
along with occasional cloud to water lightning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  92  66  91 /  40  30  10  40
LCH  68  89  68  88 /  30  50  20  50
LFT  69  93  70  91 /  30  30  10  60
BPT  69  90  69  88 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...17