Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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264
FXUS64 KLCH 162108
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
408 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

.DISCUSSION...
The dry pattern is coming to an end this evening as the
combination of high pressure to the east and a low pressure across
west Texas funnels moisture out of the gulf and into Texas and
Louisiana. The precip water is continuing to climb with totals for
the 12z run around an inch. By tomorrow morning precip water is
expected to have increased to around 1.5 to 1.7 inches. A frontal
boundary draped over Kansas will slow the gulf moisture from
lifting further to the north resulting in pool across our region.

This pattern along with an upper level disturbance will support
storm activity. The problem is... this pattern looks to more or
less remain in place during the coming week. As a result QPF
numbers are around three to five inch totals for locations in
southeast Texas and three to four inches for southwest Louisiana.
As the ground remains saturated rains will run into low lying
areas and into the creeks and rivers. This will result in
flooding of additional river locations and a rise in other river
locations. The only good news in this is that river have been
falling over the last several days but this expected expected to
change through the midweek timeframe. In addition... there will be
a slight threat towards Wednesday that a few storms may become
severe with the potential from winds and hail.

For tonight showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across
southeast Texas will lesser amounts in southern Louisiana.
Overnight temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70.

For Monday... with diurnal heating look for showers and
thunderstorms on and off through the day with the best potential
towards the afternoon hours. Once again heavier storms may produce
some minor flooding if training of storms develop... mainly in
southeast Texas.

This overall pattern as explained earlier looks to bring us a very
wet week ahead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  82  69  84 /  30  70  30  70
LCH  71  83  72  85 /  40  60  30  70
LFT  69  83  70  84 /  20  50  20  60
BPT  70  82  72  84 /  60  70  30  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through Tuesday afternoon for
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

K. Kuyper



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