Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 182235
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
535 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Clear, cool and blustery conditions are ongoing across the region
in the wake of a passing cold front. (Your time is coming, spring.
Let us have this last taste of winter.) A Wind Advisory has been
issued for coastal Texas, southwest Louisiana and south central
Louisiana until 5 PM for strong northerly wind gusts. This
evening, the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure starts
moving into the south central US. Winds will diminish and
conditions improve further under nearly clear skies.

Tonight, much cooler conditions are expected. Once winds come
down, expect temperatures to drop quickly. Temperatures will drop
into the lower to mid 30s north of I-10 and low to mid 40s along
the coastline. Such cool temperatures and calm conditions should
result in areas of light frost development between midnight and
sunrise across central Louisiana. Areas expecting the most
widespread frost are Evangeline, St. Landry, Rapides and
Avoyelles parishes.

Uncertainty does exist as to whether these areas will actually
reach 32 F. Conditions do give the indication that radiational
cooling will maximize tonight, with the question being just how
far temps can cool. There is about a 30 to 40 percent probability
of the aforementioned parishes hitting 32 F just prior to sunrise.
In the interest of communicating this risk of this happening, the
previous Frost Advisory was upgraded to a Freeze Warning from
midnight to 9 AM Tuesday morning.

Expect clear and cool conditions Tuesday during daytime hours as high
pressure moves right overhead. The high shifts east on Wednesday,
opening the door to moisture return and warming temperatures near
70 F. Late Wednesday, an upper shortwave swings into the lower
Plains states. Broad, large scale ascent spreads over the region
from aloft, aiding the return of light showers over southeast
Texas after midnight Wednesday.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Uncertainty remains above average regarding a storm system passing
through the region Thursday/Friday. The main differences are timing
and location of heavier rainfall. Taking a blend and probabilistic
approach will keep POPs into Friday. Probability of greater than 1"
for the 24 hr period late Thursday into Friday is roughly 10-35%
with 10-20% of greater than 2". Onshore, the area with the greatest
probs are across SWLA/SETX. However, the heaviest rainfall appears
to favor offshore with the potential for SFC low development in the
northern GoM.

Thereafter, drier and warmer weather expected generally Friday
through Sunday. Another storm system is possible early next week,
but confidence remains low at this time.

78

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)

SCT/BKN cirrus layer ~25000 ft expected to continue this evening,
gradually thinning out overnight and Tuesday. Main forecast issue
will be winds. Expect the north winds presently around 16-18 kts
with gusts to 25-28 kts to diminish rapidly this evening to near
5-8 kts, and around 5 kts southern terminals, calm at AEX after
06z. At AEX, expect light and variable winds for the remainder of
the period. For the southern terminals, expect east winds around
6-8 kts after 15z Tuesday, becoming southerly by the afternoon.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Strong northerly winds will persist through the evening and
overnight in the wake of a passing cold front. Winds of 20 to 30
knots and gusting to 35 knots will increase seas to as much as 9
feet over the waters beyond 20 nautical miles from late tonight
through Tuesday morning. Conditions will begin improving on
Tuesday as high pressure builds over the region. The next chance
of rain starts late Wednesday before increasing to widespread
showers and thunderstorms Thursday with the next frontal system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  33  63  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  39  63  48  68 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  40  64  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  43  66  50  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     LAZ028-029-032-033.

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...08


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