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000
FXUS64 KLCH 011623
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1023 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

.UPDATE...
Dense fog has been lifting acrs the area as regional cameras
suggest improved visibilities with low cigs lingering, although
16Z KBPT ob still reports 1/4SM vis. Given the improving
conditions, allowed the Dense Fog Advisory to expire at 15Z. Sfc
analysis indicates cold front currently approaching the Hwy
190/Hwy 12 corridor, with northerly winds and cooler temperatures
filtering into cntl LA and the Lakes Region of SE TX. Further
south, temperatures are in the lower to middle 70s with dewpoints
around 70. The front should be passing south of I-10 through
midday, and off the coast by mid-aftn, helping to scour out the
foggy and humid conditions. Area radars show a few showers
along the front, with more sctd activity developing behind the
front as it sinks southward.

Made some slight modifications to PoPs/Wx to reflect recent radar
trends and latest hi res guidance. Also made minor adjustments to
hourly temperatures and dewpoints based on morning obs, but
temperatures are otherwise on track with minimal changes to max
temps.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/

DISCUSSION...
12Z 01MAR21 TAFs

AVIATION...
All sites have MVFR to LIFR CIGS&VIS ahead of the cold front that
is slowly crawling into our area. KAEX will be the first to see
some showers slowly spread south, with the rest of the terminals
following its lead. CIGS during the day will see a slight
improvement as they begin to lift, but they are expected to
descend back into the IFR category late Monday night. Wind will
be quite gusty this TAF cycle as they shift out of the north.
Prevailed -SHRA post frontal passage due to overrunning moisture.
Stigger/87

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows the cold front extending across East Texas from LFK
northeast across North Louisiana to near MLU. The bulk of the
rainfall is along and behind the surface boundary. Further south,
a much warmer & humid airmass prevails with temperatures and
dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. Areas of dense marine fog
continue across the coastal waters, coastal lakes/bays, and along
the coastal parishes of Louisiana and further inland to Lake
Charles & Beaumont. For this, the Dense Fog Advisory continues for
these areas through 9 AM.

The cold front will continue to progress southward today and
likely stall south of the 60nm marine zone boundary as a frontal
wave/low forms with the approaching upper low over the ArkLaTex.
This will generate sufficient over-running moisture and lift for
most of the showers and isolated thunderstorms to remain north of
the surface boundary, expecting the highest precipitation chances
later tonight into early Tuesday. Expect the precipitation to end
from west to east with the upper level low/axis moves east of the
region by Tuesday afternoon. Behind the front, cooler air will
prevail bringing temperatures near to slightly below normal,
especially for Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

Increasing cloudiness with a chance of showers Friday afternoon
and evening as another upper level disturbance moves though the
region. Expect clearing and continued seasonal temperatures for
the weekend.

DML

MARINE...
Areas of dense marine fog will continue this morning for the
lakes/bays and coastal waters out 20 nm, with the Dense Fog
Advisory continuing through Noon. A cold front will move through
the region later this afternoon and stall offshore, bringing
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms today through
Tuesday evening. Expect offshore winds to increase around 15-20
kts across the 0-20nm zones, with 20 kts and higher gusts from
20-60nm. For this, a Small Craft Advisory begins around 6 PM this
evening for 20-60nm zones. Small Craft Exercise Caution for the
0-20nm zones beginning at 6 PM as well. Marine fog is expected to
disperse behind the cold front as cooler and drier air moves
through the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  46  52  38 /  80  80  80  10
LCH  73  50  57  41 /  50  70  70  10
LFT  76  53  59  43 /  40  70  80  20
BPT  72  50  58  41 /  50  70  70   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for GMZ470.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ430-432-435-450-
     452-455.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 6 PM CST this evening through
     late tonight for GMZ452-455.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 6 PM CST this evening through
     Tuesday morning for GMZ450.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...24