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000
FXUS64 KLCH 260446
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1146 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

.DISCUSSION...
For 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Other than the removal of precip now that the evening convection
has weakened and moved east of the area, no significant changes to
previous TAF thinking.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022/

DISCUSSION...
Radar has remained mostly quiet this evening save for some
earlier isolated convection across east central LA which has since
dissipated and some light/moderate shower activity over the Gulf
waters and parts of south central LA. While additional development
is still anticipated later tonight, CAM guidance depicts this
activity mainly across south central LA along and east of the
advancing frontal boundary. Based on these progs, have trimmed off
some of the inherited FFA. Rest of the forecast is on track as
cooler and drier air filters in from the west.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 652 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022/

DISCUSSION...
For 00z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
First off, forecast soundings/time-height sections indicate that
any ceilings which develop through this evening should remain at
VFR levels...thereafter, drying is progged through the column and
thus VFR conditions should continue to prevail.

Main question is convective potential. Once the main convective
system pushed through the area earlier today, precip has been nil
behind it. CAM guidance to some degree is showing convection to
re-develop this evening, primarily over the LA zones and up until
recently, there had been none. However recent 88D trends show
development beginning to fire up along a convergence zone/weak
frontal boundary, primarily over e-cntl LA which could be the
beginnings of a more widespread outbreak during the evening...thus
the ern terminals, especially KARA/KLFT, are carrying a precip
mention for a few hours before the boundary pushes out of the
area. Included a VCSH mention at KBPT just in case it back builds
enough to possibly impact coastal sern TX.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022/

SYNOPSIS...
Deep upper level low continues to spin over OK as it moves east
acrs the plains. WV imagery shows some drier air trying to spread
into the area as it wraps around the base of the trough, although
a pocket of deeper moisture lingers over the area behind the
deeper convection to the east. Latest sfc analysis shows a
frontal boundary extending from low pres near KC, southward acrs
W AR into E/SE TX (roughly near our western CWA boundary). While
visible satellite shows some CU/SC have been developing in the
vicinity of and ahead of the front this aftn, a look outside and
at various traffic cams acrs the area show little vertical
development. Also, the KLCH radar continues to be "quiet" acrs
our SE TX zones.

24

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday]...
The upper trough will continue to progress east tonight into
Thursday, helping to propel the front through the region. There
remains some uncertainty regarding how much convection can re-
develop this evening as the front moves through, especially as the
lower PWAT airmass moves into the area. Still, given the lingering
moisture (LAPS precip water shows PWAT ~1.3 to 1.5 inches), and
sufficient lift associated with the trough axis aloft, some sctd
convection can be expected, primarily acrs our LA zones with the
best chcs over the eastern third of the area. Any convection that
does develop will move east overnight and should be exiting our S
cntl LA parishes by daybreak or shortly thereafter. With the
heaviest rainfall expected to stay confined to mainly the Acadiana
region, have cancelled the Flood Watch acrs Vernon and Beauregard
Parishes (along with all of SE TX earlier).

Drier air will filter into the region in the wake of the front
along with the passage of the midlevel trough axis Thursday
morning. Skies are expected to be sunny Thursday, with nice
weather to end the week. Temperatures tonight are expected to be
below normal with lows ranging from the upper 50s acrs interior SE
TX to the lower 60s from cntl LA into SW LA and lower SE TX. The
Acadiana region will still have lows in the upper 60s to around 70
as the drier and slightly cooler airmass will not have reached
that area before Thursday morning. The drier airmass in place
the next few days will allow for about a 20 to 30 degree diurnal
variation in temperatures, with daytime highs in the middle 80s
on Thursday followed by middle 80s to near 90 on Friday, while
overnight lows will fall into the 60s. With low relative humidity
values, conditions should feel quite pleasant.

24

LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]...

A cool start expected Saturday morning as weakening cool surface
high pressure prevails over the region. The high expected to slide
eastward, with light south to southwest winds expected by the
afternoon. Expect temperatures to quickly rebound by the afternoon
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The upper air pattern will be dominated by north to northwest flow
over our region Saturday. By Sunday, a mid to upper level ridge is
expected to build across the region through Wednesday. At the
surface, the pressure gradient expected to increase with stronger
south to southeast winds expected Sunday through Tuesday. This
should allow for overnight lows in the upper 60s/near 70 north of
U.S. 190 to the lower/mid 70s further south. Afternoon highs in the
lower 90s north of U.S. 190 to the lower/mid 70s elsewhere.

Very low precipitation chances expected Saturday through Memorial Day
with the drier air aloft and capping from the upper level ridging.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, slightly increased moisture from the
Eastern Gulf may yield increased chances of afternoon showers and a
few thunderstorms. Blended guidance continues the 20-30 along the I-
10 corridor, and 20% or less elsewhere both afternoons.

08

MARINE...
A weak cold front is expected to move across the area this evening
and overnight, accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Locally higher winds and waves can be expected
near any stronger storms. South to southwest winds will shift to a
light to moderate offshore flow as the frontal passage, and this
offshore flow will persist into Thursday. Winds will become light
and somewhat variable as surface high pressure settles over the
northwest Gulf by the end of the week, with southerly flow
returning by Sunday as the high moves east.

24

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ033-043>045-052>055.
TX...None.
GM...None.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  84  60  86 /  40   0   0   0
LCH  62  84  65  89 /  40   0   0   0
LFT  66  84  65  87 /  70   0   0   0
BPT  61  85  66  90 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ033-043>045-052>055.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$