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486
FXUS64 KLCH 200448
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1148 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
For 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Adjusted POPs from 00z TAFs based on latest high res runs which
are advertising more shower activity starting in a few hours so
carried some prevailing precip for KLCH to account. Also showing
more precip during the daylight hours Friday so this trend is also
being accounted for this package.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 936 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/

DISCUSSION...Radar showing no more than patchy stratiform rains
over the area at this time. Still some potential for nocturnal
development of convection as the night progresses and maintaining
Flash Flood Watch through 12z for southeast Texas and southwest
Louisiana. Forecast on track and no update will be required.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Wx map showing what appears to be an elongated sfc trough for
Imelda over East Texas southeast of Dallas/Fort Worth. Radar and
satellite continues to show showers and thunderstorms actually
back-building westward over Houston late this morning/early
afternoon, and southwest along the upper TX coast as of this
writing. This has put a halt on the widespread rainfall for
Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana, with still some lingering
pockets of light to occasionally moderate rainfall.

Most shortterm guidance does not show significant rainfall this
evening, with some additional re-development across Southeast
Texas early Friday morning, with no where near the rainfall
amounts expected. However, most of the guidance has initialized
the current convection further inland instead of along the coast.
Confidence is less than average on most short term guidance this
afternoon. The good news is that the sfc trough appears to finally
be lifting in a northward direction further away from the coast. Will
keep the flash flood watch across Southeast Texas and Southwest
Louisiana, with no changes to parishes/counties and expiration
time. Main emphasis will be additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated higher amounts expected.

For the remainder of the forecast, looks like high pressure across
the mid to upper levels will be building back across the region,
which will lower precipitation chances back down closer to normal
by Saturday, and possibly below normal by early next week.

DML

MARINE...
Tropical Depression Imelda will continue to move slowly north
across east Texas and weaken tonight and Friday. Deep tropical
moisture and a modest pressure gradient is expected to produce
squally weather through Friday. High pressure will build into the
coastal waters from the east over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  84  67  88 /  50  50  10  10
LCH  75  86  74  88 /  40  60  10  20
LFT  74  87  71  89 /  30  50  10  20
BPT  76  84  75  85 /  50  60  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for LAZ027-030-031-041-
     042-073-074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...None.
&&

$$