Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
030 FXUS64 KLCH 131756 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1256 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon in response to an upper trough. - A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather and a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall are in effect today due to a convective complex forecast to approach from the west. - An upper ridge will build over the region through midweek, lowering precipitation chances while supporting a warming trend. - A surge of tropical moisture late in the week may result in multiple days of heavy rainfall and increased flood potential. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Convective coverage has increased this afternoon in response to the upper trough, which is enhancing diurnal instability. Later this evening, a convective system currently affecting central Texas is forecast to move eastward into our area. SPC has placed areas along and north of the I-10 corridor under a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe storms, with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. WPC has also outlined parts of Tyler County and south CenLA in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall and localized flash flooding. While this complex may weaken somewhat upon entering our area, it could still maintain enough organization to pose a severe weather threat, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. By Monday, convection will begin to diminish as the upper ridge over the southeastern U.S. expands westward. Rain chances will not be eliminated but will become more limited. Temperatures will hover near climatological normals initially, then trend above normal by Tuesday as the ridge exerts more influence. Combined with elevated dew points, heat indices may approach or exceed advisory thresholds. Even in the absence of official heat headlines, all should continue practicing heat safety during prolonged outdoor exposure, especially those in sensitive groups. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The midweek period will begin under the continued influence of the upper ridge, which will suppress convection and continue the warming trend set into place in the short term. Although isolated to widely scattered showers and storms may still develop during peak diurnal periods, activity will remain limited. High temperatures are forecast to rise a few degrees above normal, with elevated humidity pushing heat indices toward or beyond advisory levels. Again, regardless of official issuance, the last sentence of the short term still applies. By late Wednesday into Thursday, a retrograding trough is expected be in the northern Gulf. NHC has kept a low (20%) chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days for this system. Nevertheless, a deep tropical airmass is expected to surge into the region, favoring enhanced rainfall rates and increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. PWATs are forecast to climb into the 75th percentile on Wednesday, then surge into the 90th percentile to near daily max values (2.12.4 inches) by Thursday afternoon and evening. WPC has already placed portions of Acadiana under a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday. Additional expansion or upgrading of this risk area may be warranted depending on future trends. Model spread increases by Friday and beyond, limiting forecast confidence in the precise evolution of the pattern. However, ensemble guidance suggests that anomalously high PWATs (above the 90th percentile for the entire CWA) will persist through the end of the week and into the weekend, increasing the likelihood of multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. As such, further ERO outlooks, potentially of higher magnitude, may be needed in subsequent forecast cycles. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Scattered convection has developed primarily across the eastern half of the forecast area this afternoon, with additional activity expected to fill in westward as a disturbance migrates from central Texas. Brief periods of gusty winds, heavy rainfall reducing VIS, and frequent lightning will be possible at affected terminals. Thunderstorm activity should gradually diminish during the late evening hours. Patchy fog may develop overnight, though confidence in extent and intensity remains low. Any fog that does form will dissipate quickly after sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 High pressure extending across the northern Gulf will maintain light onshore winds and low seas through late next week. Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the coastal waters through Monday with lower rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level ridging builds across the northern gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s through next week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 50 - 70%. Daily thunderstorms will develop from late morning through early evening through Monday. An upper level ridge building into the region will lower daily rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 94 73 96 / 10 30 0 20 LCH 77 91 76 93 / 10 60 10 30 LFT 76 90 75 92 / 10 60 0 40 BPT 76 91 75 93 / 10 50 10 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...87