Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 282325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
325 PM PST Tue Jan 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will move through the state this evening
with valley rain showers changing over to snow showers. Drier
conditions are expected on Wednesday, with gusty northerly winds,
mainly in central Nevada. Isolated to scattered showers are
possible in northern Nevada Wednesday night through Thursday
morning. A warming and drying trend with begin on Thursday
afternoon and continue through the first half of the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday afternoon

A cold front will be moving into northern Elko County late this
afternoon and then make its way southeastward through the state
through the evening. There have been a few thunderstorms in southern
Idaho this afternoon and models indicate a bit of instability
present early this evening which could possibly generate a few
isolated thundershowers mainly in Elko County, so these were
added to the afternoon package for this evening just before and
along the front. Afternoon temperatures have been around 40 to 50
degrees, though they will be dropping behind the cold front.
Therefore showers ahead of the front will bring valleys showers in
the form of rain before transitioning to snow behind the front.
As this system will have less moisture associated with it then the
past couple of systems, the further it makes its way into central
Nevada the less moisture it will have to work with. Therefore
impacts will be limited with lower valleys generally seeing less
then an inch, elevations above 6000 feet in northern Elko County
could see an inch or 2, and the Jarbidge and Ruby mountains 3 to 4
inches. Low temperatures will cool behind the cold front Wednesday
morning, dropping into the upper teens to the middle 20`s. Shower
coverage will decrease after midnight with only an isolated shower
leftover by early Wednesday morning.

Northerly flow will bring a little cooler highs on Wednesday,
with highs in the mid 30`s to the lower 40`s, though there will
be more sun then clouds. There will also be gusty northerly winds
in central Nevada, with gusts to around 35 mph in valleys that
are windprone to northerly winds, such as Tonopah. Higher
elevations will see higher gusts, though the situation will stay
below advisory criteria.

Upper ridging builds into the Southwest U.S. on Thursday.
Moisture riding over the ridge will bring isolated to scattered
showers to mainly northern Nevada late Wednesday night and
Thursday. These will begin in northern Humboldt County Wednesday
night and spread eastward during the morning on Thursday. Again,
not much moisture to work with, and any snow shower would bring a
trace to less then a half inch of snow. A warming trend begins
Thursday afternoon behind the showers, as dry conditions are
expected Thursday afternoon through Friday. Expect highs by Friday
to be in the 40`s to the mid 50`s.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night through next Tuesday. Models are
continuing to show an upper level ridge over the forecast area
remaining through the weekend. This will result in warm afternoon
highs, especially Saturday, with some locations possibly reaching
record levels for the first day of February. Winds will be breezy
in the north but should remain below advisory criteria. There
will be plenty of sunshine. Highs will be in the 50s to low 60s
for Saturday. Expecting a mild night for Saturday night with
overnight lows mainly in the 30s, though some locations could
clock in the 20s.

For Sunday, models continue to depict a pattern change though the
timing of the system is changing slightly from run to run. Right
now, Sunday appears to be a warm day with readings in the 50s for
the most part, but upper level low pressure is beginning to take
shape out in the eastern Pacific. Out ahead of the system, strong
winds are possible across the area and wind headlines are
possible. Right now there appears to be a strong cold front
passage through the overnight hours will bring rain to start but
will quickly switch over to snow. In addition, surface low
pressure is expected to develop and rapidly deepen, and there is a
fairly anomalous 1.5 PV anomaly and good interaction with the
surface low. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with the
placement and timing and this will need to be watched. What is
apparent is the increasing probability of colder temperatures for
next week. Overnight lows on Sunday will be in the 20s.

It is going to be a fairly blustery day on Monday with highs
reaching the 30s to possibly only 40 degrees in some spots. North
to northwest winds will be 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, and
the normally windy locations may continue to see wind advisory
criteria. There will be some snow showers out and about as well.


.AVIATION...Scattered showers will continue through the evening
hours mainly over KEKO, with VCSH possible at KWMC and KBAM. CIGS
less than 2k ft are possible in KEKO in the heavier showers. An
isolated -TSRA/-TSSN cannot be ruled out especially in northern
Elko county before 05Z this evening. Some breezy conditions will
develop tomorrow after 18Z at the central TAF sites KELY and KTPH
with NW15-20G25-30KT.




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