Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 052028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
128 PM PDT Mon Jun 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms (20-50%) this afternoon and
evening with the highest chance of showers and storms extending
across portions of Lander, Eureka, and Elko counties this evening.
Isolated storms may linger across central Nevada through
midnight. Another low pressure system is set to move onto the
California coast that will bring more unsettled weather to
central and northern Nevada through the remainder of the week.
Highs Tuesday will range from low 70s to low 80s.


.SHORT TERM...A weak ridge of high pressure over the area today
will result in less intense and slightly fewer storms across the
area this afternoon and evening (20-50%) chances.

Tuesday, a fairly active subtropical jet between 20 to 30 degrees
north is forecast to bring another low pressure system up along
the southern CA coast. For northeast and central Nevada the
forecast shows weak shear and weak upper level diffluence to
enhance thunderstorm structure and development over portions of
Elko, Northern Lander and Eureka, and Humboldt counties for
Tuesday with a (40-80%) chance of precipitation. There is a severe
storm threat (wind & hail) and a heavy rain threat on Tuesday as
well with less than 10 percent probability of potentially severe
storms with localized flash flooding in the afternoon and evening.
Dry air is forecast to wrap north possibly as far as northern
Nye, southern White Pine, and southern Lander, and Eureka
counties, limiting any storms in those areas (10-30%) chance.

Wednesday, the ensemble system is suggestive that the upper level low
pressure system located over Southern California shifts a bit
northeastward into southern Cal and Nevada with drier air perhaps
as far north as extreme southern Elko county, White Pine,
southern Lander and Eureka, and northern Nye counties. Thus,
really limiting precip chance over these areas (0-20%). For Elko,
Humboldt, and northern Lander and Eureka precipitation chances
will be slightly lower over this area, ranging from (30-60%)
Temperatures will remain warm in the 70s and 80s through

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Sunday. The long term is
expected to remain active with afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms each day. Winds speeds will be a bit breezy each
afternoon, though strong and erratic convective gusts will be
possible with any storm.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue
mainly across northern Nevada Thursday and Friday as temperatures
fall a couple degrees each day with troughing in place across the
region. A moderate confidence of a potent low pressure system
moving into the region over the weekend exists as indicated by
cluster analysis. This could bring more significant wetting rains
across a wider area of the state. However, timing details and
areas of heavier rainfall placement could change in the coming

Winds will be higher across central Nevada Wednesday with the trough
moving trough southern Nevada with up to 20-30 mph from the south
on a few higher elevation ranges. Lighter winds are expected
Thursday before breezy conditions return ahead of a potentially
stronger and wetter low pressure system Friday into the weekend.

Temperatures will cool slightly as broad troughing remains over
the western U.S. Highs Wednesday in the mid-70s to low-80s will
fall back into the upper 60s to lower 70s by Sunday. Lows will
fall into the 40s and 50s with some 30s possible early next week.


.AVIATION...ISOLD to SCT -SHRA/-TSRA will continue through the
early evening hours. Convective outflows to 35kt are possible with
any storm. VFR conditions will be prevalent during the overnight.
By tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms will redevelop, with all
sites seeing VCTS. Again, convective outflows to 45kt are possible
with any storm.


.HYDROLOGY...River and stream flows remain high and swift as
snowpack continues to melt from central and northern Nevada
mountains. The active weather pattern persists, with afternoon
and evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Probabilities remain
low that any given thunderstorm will cause increased hydrologic
impacts. Smaller creeks like Lamoille will see diurnal
fluctuations, but larger rivers that are slower responding will
continue to run high.


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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