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000
FXUS65 KLKN 252315
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
315 PM PST Thu Feb 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A brief period of dry and fair weather will occur
into this evening with some light mountain showers in the north. A
weather system is set to pass through Friday into Saturday
bringing snow showers and gusty winds to the region. Forecast
uncertainty increases for next week with no current significant
weather systems expected to impact the region.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.

Today continues with a generally quite and dry afternoon as
models place us under high pressure and upper-level ridging for a
majority of the day. This, however, will be very short lived as
agreement has the ridge breaking down Thursday night before the
next system moves in. Current guidance does place some light snow
shower around the Jarbidge area overnight Thursday, but amounts
are light with less than an inch seen.

Friday morning into Saturday, the system is expected to fully
passes through the region producing more of a widespread snowfall
for northern and central Nevada. Amounts are on the light side for
the valleys where an inch or less is expected. In the higher
elevations, snowfall will be a bit better with locations looking
to get a couple of inches. In northern Elko county and the Ruby
Mountains/ Humboldt Range a Winter Weather Advisory is set to
begin Friday at 10 am and last until 4 pm Saturday. Moderate
snowfall is expected in the higher elevations with a potential for
5 to 9 inches in the mountain and a few isolated spots of closed
to a foot. At the lower elevations strong winds and wind gust
could create periods of blowing snow reducing visibility on the
roads ways.

Winds, in general, Friday will be breezy with the strongest winds
to the north. Winds Advisories are set to begin for northern
Lander and Eureka counties as well as the remainder of Elko county
and all of Humboldt county at 10 am Friday and go until 7 pm that
night. Locations in those areas could see winds of 20 to 30 mph
with gusts up to 50 mph. On Saturday afternoon, winds are expected
to pick up again with the exit of the system and a return of
northwesterly flow into the region. Conditions will be weaker than
the Friday period with only Northwestern Nye showing relatively
strong winds. Conditions and showers should die down Saturday
evening with Sunday returning to calm and dry condtions.

As for Temperatures, Friday looks to hold onto some of the warmer
conditions with afternoon temperatures in 30s to 40 and a few
southern locations in the 50s. Overnight temperatures will be mild
for tonight and Friday with locations in the 20s to teens. By
Saturday, temperatures are expected to cool into 20s to 30s for
the afternoon with Saturday night dropping temperatures back in
the single digits to teens for Sunday morning. As for Sunday,
temperatures are expected to be mild for the afternoon with most
locations in the 30s to 40s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Thursday.

Quite a bit of forecast uncertainty still exists in the longer
term forecast beginning Monday. The GEFS members in particular are
appearing to be drier than other ensemble systems and produces a
cut-off low that will linger off the CA coast Tuesday and
Wednesday. NBM continues to be influenced by the ECE components
bringing a quick moving trough through the area Monday night
through Tuesday. Even if the wetter scenario plays out, it should
not be a significant impact on northern Nevada. Excluding the late
Monday into early Tuesday precip potential, temperatures are
expected to moderate gradually for the mid part of the week as a
ridge builds over the western U.S. Highs in the lower to mid 40s
Monday will rise into the upper 40s to lower 40s by Thursday. The
coldest night should be Sunday night with lows dropping into the
teens before 20s return for mid week. Winds should be somewhat
tame as jet energy moves northward and ridging likely builds over
the region next week.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected across most of northern
and central NV through tonight. Unsettled weather returns to
northern Nevada Friday afternoon with increasing upper and mid
level cloud cover. Snow is expected to stay largely north of the
I-80 corridor. However, strong west winds are expected with gusts
of 30-40 knots Friday afternoon into early Friday evening. Light
snow is then expected Friday night into Saturday morning at KBAM,
KEKO and to a lesser extent KWMC and KELY lowering ceilings and
reducing visibility at times to MVFR.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 PM PST Saturday
for Northern Elko County-Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Friday for Humboldt County-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County-South Central
Elko County-Southeastern Elko County-Southwest Elko County.

&&

$$

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