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000
FXUS65 KLKN 251751
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1051 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will continue to move southward through
Nevada this morning, bringing isolated showers to eastern Nevada.
Much colder temperatures are expected today and gusty north winds
added in will make for a very chilly day. Record low temperatures
are expected tonight as lows drop into the single digits, with
some below zero temperatures expected in the very coldest
valleys.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...Model guidance continues to show gusty
winds and marginal RH values for much of central Nevada on
Sunday. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain across central
Nevada to include some valley areas of 426 and the southern
portions of 425 for today. However, high resolution model guidance
shows increasing concerns that critical thresholds for gusty winds
and low single digit RHs will be exceeded across eastern and
southern portions of 425 and much of 426 on Monday. But elevated
conditions will likely continue to be seen across most southern
areas of 427. Therefore have issued a red flag warning for 425
and 426 on Monday. No other changes are planned at this time, and
text products have been sent.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 347 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A cold front will continue to move southward through
Nevada this morning, bringing isolated showers to eastern Nevada.
Much colder temperatures are expected today and gusty north winds
added in will make for a very chilly day. Record low temperatures
are expected tonight as lows drop into the single digits, with
some below zero temperatures expected in the very coldest
valleys.

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday

Cold front continues to move southward through northern Nevada
early this morning. As expected, there is not much moisture
associated with the front, though it has been able to squeeze out
a couple of isolated showers. Wells had a little shower earlier
this morning, some snow flakes could be seen on the Pequops NDOT
Cam and then a few minutes ago Wendover ASOS reported a light rain
shower which left a trace of precipitation. This kind of activity
is what will be expected in eastern Nevada through this morning
as the front continues to makes it track southward. By afternoon
the front will be south of White Pine county and any shower
activity will end. The real story continues to be the very cold
air that will be filtering down south into Nevada today. Many
valleys will likely not rise above the 30`s today for high
temperatures and some may creep into the lower 40`s at best. The
exception will be in portions of northern Nye County, where it
could reach into the 50`s there before the cold front makes its
way through. Overall, this is a good 20 to 25 degrees colder then
Saturday`s highs. Add in some gusty winds out of the north and its
going to make for quite a chilly day. Strongest winds will be in
northwestern Nye county and a Wind Advisory is in effect there for
winds of 25 to 35 mph with some gusts up to 45 mph.

Skies clear, winds become calmer, & dewpoints plunge tonight as
the very cold air continues to filter into Nevada from the north.
Low temperatures are expected to bottom out in the valleys, with
widespread record lows still expected in the lower to middle
single digits, with below zero temps in coldest areas such as
Wildhorse and Mountain City. One exception will be in some parts
of northern Nye County, where some continued overnight breezes
will "only" allow lows to drop into the mid teens. Monday will be
mostly sunny with lighter winds in northern Nevada and another
day of gusty winds expected in central Nevada, though the winds
are expected to not reach advisory levels. High temperatures will
be about 5 degrees warmer then Sunday, but still below normal in
the 30`s and 40`s.

LONG TERM...Monday night through next Sunday.

A ridge is looking to set up across the west on Monday bringing a
long stint of dry and fair weather. Initially this ridge should
keep a northerly fetch across the silver state that should last
through early morning Tuesday. This in turn will continue the very
cold overnight temperatures Monday night through Tuesday morning.
The ridge should then continue a slow drift eastward all the way
to next Sunday. This is looking to bring a return to warm
conditions. As early as Tuesday afternoon, temperatures look to
rebound back into high 50s and then to proceed to continue to warm
back above the normal for October. By the end of the week,
afternoon temperatures look to return into the high 60s to low 70s
with a decent looking Halloween day.

AVIATION...A strong cold front will pass through the region
this morning while accompanied by a deck of BKN-OVC 030-050 CIGs
and a few VCSH, light snow showers or flurries mainly around KELY.
Northwest to north winds this afternoon will gust up to 45 kts at
KTPH, 35 kts at KWMC & KELY, and 25 to near 30 kts at KEKO &
KBAM. Clear skies and a very cold/dry airmass will allow
temperatures to plummet to record lows in the single digits early
Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER...Gusty northerly afternoon and evening winds are
expected in both northern and central Nevada today, strongest in
FW Zones 426 and 427. However, RH behind a cold front will remain
elevated enough today to mitigate critical Fire Weather concerns.

Much drier and colder air will filter into the area tonight
however, dropping RH values quickly back to critical levels in
both northern and Central Nevada. Winds will be concentrated in
central Nevada, strongest in FW Zones 426 and the southern half of
425, where 15 to 20 mph winds will gust to 25 to 30 mph. This
creates elevated to marginally critical fire weather conditions
and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for FW Zone 426.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 5 PM PDT Monday for Northern Nye
County-Mojave-White Pine and Northeast Nye Counties.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Northwestern Nye
County.

&&

$$

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