586
FXUS65 KLKN 022051
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
151 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 148 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

* A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected each afternoon and
  evening today through Friday with lighting and gusty winds
  possible.

* There is a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon for
  portions of eastern NV.

* High temperatures through the weekend will be in the 80s and 90s
  while overnight lows will dip into the 50s and 60s.

* Friday afternoon and evening, there is a potential for critical
  fire weather conditions for central and eastern sections of the
  forecast area.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 148 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Upper level ridge over the southwestern high plains is continuing
to interact with a weakening upper level trough over central
California for the next few days. Monsoonal mid level moisture has
been transported northward into Nevada thanks to the broad
southerly flow created by the two weather features. For Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons there will be a 10% to 30% of a mix of wet
and dry isolated to scattered thunderstorms for central and
northern Nevada. After Friday the upper low will collapse as it
shift east, allowing a more northern stream trough to replace it.
This will primarily shift the focus for a 15%to 25% chance for
storms across northern Nevada for the 4th of July. From Saturday
onward the pattern looks to dry back out as high pressure builds
across northern Mexico into the Arizonian and New Mexico. This
will change the upper flow to a drier SW flow, with any monsoonal
moisture shifted well into New Mexico which is more of a typical
early July pattern for the Great Basin. Temperatures for the
period will continue to cool a bit for Wednesday and Thursday with
highs ranging in the mid 80s to mid 90s with lows in the mid 50s
to mid 60s. Independence day will be our coolest day of the
stretch as high will be in the low 80s to low 90s with lows in the
low 50s to low 60s. Saturday as high pressure returns
temperatures will climb again back into the low 90s to low 100s by
early next week. Winds through the holiday will remain breezy
during the afternoons out of the S to SW with speeds of 10 to 20
mph with gusts up to 30mph possible. During the evenings and
overnights winds drop to become light and variable. After
Saturday, with the upper ridge building in winds will shift out of
the WSW at 5 to 15mph with gusts up to 25 MPH possible.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence in the possibility for the development
of isolated to scattered coverage of a 10% to 30% chance of a mix
of wet and dry thunderstorms this afternoon and Thursday. There is
moderate to high confidence a 15% to 25% chance for a mix of
isolated dry and wet thunderstorms for northern Nevada on Friday.

There is moderate confidence for near critical fire weather
conditions over central Nevada with a low confidence of near
critical fire weather conditions over portions of Humboldt, and
western Elko Counties.

The main deviation from the previous forecast was to increase
POPs over northern and north central Nevada to better capture the
current thunderstorm development trends over the region and to
increase POPs for Thursday and Friday as model trend are
reflective of higher storm chances.

&&


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions expected to be the dominant category at all
terminals, however blowing dust from thunderstorm downdrafts may
bring reduced visibility. Breezy southerly/southwesterly winds
this afternoon at 10-15 kts, gusts up to 20-25 kts at all
terminals, expected to last into the evening. High based
thunderstorms over KEKO, KBAM, KELY, KENV, and KTPH continue this
afternoon, dissipating during the evening. VCTS expected at KEKO
and KELY.

AMD NOT SKED for KELY due to visibility sensor.


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions continue this afternoon as
monsoonal moisture enhances isolated dry thunderstorm conditions
across central and northern Nevada along with high daytime winds
and low RH values. Tomorrow, conditions look to be the same with
isolated dry thunderstorms starting from northern Nevada, elevated
winds and low RH. Next weather system Friday bring critical
chances of fire weather with high winds and low RH for zones
NV425, NV426, and NV427 for the afternoon.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None. &&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97