Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 032108

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
208 PM PDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the southwest United States provides
dry and warm conditions today before breaking down this week as a
low pressure slowly encroaches upon Nevada. Temperatures return
to normal with a risk for thunderstorms each afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday.

Upper ridge from...heck...has moved east a bit and our upper flow
is returning to dry southwesterly. A deep closed low over the
northeast Pacific is depressing the ridge`s west side and opening
up the Pacific moisture pool. Two thin bands of middle to high
level water vapor are moving into the Great Basin. This will open
the door for some dry thunderstorms Tuesday over extreme northeast
Nevada, and Wednesday afternoon and evening across mostly Humboldt
and Elko Counties. Chances for precip are virtually nil.

Temps will also cool off to more normal values, which is still

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Monday.

Models agree on the initial movement of weak trough energy
Wednesday from Northern California into Nevada, as another trough
in the Pacific Northwest settles further south for the remainder
of the period. However, agreement starts to break down when
handling the embedded short-waves, with the ECMWF being more
progressive than the GFS. A weak cold front is expected to move
into the state Friday before stalling out for the rest of the
weekend. Instability is present throughout the extend period
bringing the possibility of thunderstorm activity each day, with
best chances focused in northern Nevada on Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures are expected to trend lower, which allows locations
to get closer to their normal temperatures of low to mid-90s.


.AVIATION...VFR next 24hrs. Slightly cooler afternoon
temperatures lead to lower density alittiudes. Surface and flight
visibilty slightly reduced to haze or smoke from fires, especially
during the early morning hours.


.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry across central, northern, and eastern
Nevada through the period. Dry thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
over extreme northeast Elko County. Best chance, albeit still very
low, over far northern zone 470. Areal coverage of isolated dry
storms increases Wednesday across northern Nevada zones 437...
438...469...470...and possibly far northern zone 424.

Winds gusty from heat in the afternoons, mostly upslope/down
valley regimes. They will tend to turn more westerly on Wednesday.

Better RH recoveries in the north than central areas, and better
than recently but still not impressive.

Note to fire weather pilots: still extremely high density
altitudes despite slightly cooler temperatures.




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