Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 212101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
201 PM PDT Sat May 21 2022


Chances for isolated thunderstorms and light showers to far N NV
today and Sunday. As this system departs high pressure will move
in bringing warming temperatures and Spring-like weather for most
of the week. Late week, winds pick up as a new upper trough
brings cooler weather and perhaps some needed precipitation to NV.


.SHORT TERM...This evening through Sunday night. Broad trough
energy over the inter-mountain west will gradually weaken through
Sunday night. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal
across the CWA through the short-term period. Additionally, weak
instability over NE NV both this afternoon and again on Sunday
will result in cumulus cloud build-ups and isolated showers,
mainly to areas north of I80 in Elko and eastern Humboldt
Counties. There is a little more instability today than there will
be on Sunday over NE NE, and as such isolated thunderstorms are
only progged for today with best chances for a couple strikes
being over the mountains of northern Elko County.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday:

Monday through Thursday: Broad upper level ridge of high pressure
off the Pacific coast will slowly move onshore over the west
coast. As a result the upper flow will shift from a northwest flow
Monday and Tuesday, to a more southwesterly flow aloft for
Wednesday and Thursday. This setup will allow for a return of fair
weather and more Spring-like temperatures. Temperatures for this
period will warm from the middle 60s to upper 70s Tuesday to the
upper 70s to the low 90s Thursday afternoon. Lows will also warm,
ranging from the lower 30s to low 40s Tuesday to the upper 40s to
the mid 50s Friday morning. Winds will start light out of the
Northwest direction and picking up speed to 10 to 15 MPH with
gusts up to 20 MPH Tuesday evening. As the upper ridge axis passes
overhead Wednesday winds will shift to the Southwest and pick up
Thursday in response to an approaching upper trough, models have
been split with the GFS/Euro favoring stronger winds, but the CMC
does not. Will need to continue to watch trends, as wind headlines
may be needed for Thursday afternoon and evening.

Thursday through Saturday: As the upper level ridge shifts
eastward, a long wave trough will be located just off shore of the
Canadian Maritime. This trough will slowly move onshore over the
Pacific Northwest. Models disagree as to the strength and location
of this trough. The GFS favors a weaker trough and a northern
track keeping precipitation across far N NV. The ECMWF keeps the
upper low stronger but also favors a northerly track like the GFS.
The latest CMC has a stronger upper low and digs the trough
farther South across NV, this would favor widespread precipitation
for more of our area. At this time decided to split the Euro/GFS
and CMC and keep the possibility of light showers for Humboldt and
Elko counties at this time. Temperatures for this period will
depend highly on potential cloud cover and precipitation But for
now it is expected that temperatures will cool a bit back into the
60s and 70s for highs in N NV while Central NV will see highs in
the 70s and 80s.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminals for the next
24 hours. All TAF terminals are expected to remain dry through the
weekend, however there will be some mid-level clouds over much of
northern and portions of east-central NV during afternoon and
early evening hours.


.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures will remain slightly below normal
through the remainder of the weekend, with relatively light winds
in all zones. Light shower activity lingers over portions of NE
NV both this afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon, mainly
across northern portions of zones 469 and 470. Isolated dry
thunderstorms are possible in these areas the rest of this
afternoon and into this evening.




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