443
FXUS64 KLZK 260520
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1220 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Another warm and dry aftn was unfolding acrs the FA w/ area temps in
the mid 70s to low 80s acrs Cntrl to Srn AR. Incrsg mid-lvl stratus
was noted on recent vis sat imgry approaching fm the N/W, and was
contributing to cooler temps, e.g., most readings below 70F. This
cooling trend acrs the north should continue thru the remainder of
the day under N/Wrly sfc winds. For the remainder of the region, a
warm aftn to evng is on deck, w/ settled condns persisting thru
tonight.

Wed, sfc high pressure that has presided over the Cntrl Plains and
Midwest wl begin to shift Ewrd as the basal region of upper
troughing departs towards the N/E. Some smaller perturbations are
set to maneuver thru mean N/Wrly H500 flow acrs the ARKLATEX, and
should yield scattered precip activity, including some thunderstorms,
fm late Wed mrng to late Wed evng. PoPs should stay mostly confined
to S/Wrn AR thru the day.

High fire danger condns wl remain prevalent acrs the state on Wed,
w/ S/Wrly winds becoming elevated again at times Wed aftn, though
still below Red Flag criteria. Despite more optimistic rainfall
chances in the short term, widespread beneficial rainfall remains to
be seen, and area fuels are still extremely dry, contributing to
daily hazardous burning conditions. Outdoor burning is strongly
discouraged, whether your local area is under a burn ban or not.

Thurs, warming condns wl prevail again as Srly flow ensues invof
developing cyclonic sfc flow over Lee of the Rockies/Cntrl Plains.
Alongside warming temps, low-lvl moisture content wl be incrsg acrs
the state, providing some much needed relief fm critically low aftn
RH values. Some isolated showers/storms could be seen across the FA
thru the day given the strong low-lvl WAA/isentropic ascent, but
there is currently lower confidence on more widespread and higher
Chc PoPs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

A broad, but somewhat weak upper level trough will remain ensnared
in the base of a longwave ridge over the central United States on
Friday and Saturday. With the trough expected to hold west of
Arkansas on Friday, deep southerly flow will cause an influx of Gulf
moisture to spread over the state. Initially elevated, this moisture
influx is expected to manifest itself as thick cloud cover and
scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms over Arkansas on
Friday. A longwave ridge generally favors above normal temperatures,
however the increase in cloud cover is expected to offset the
tendency for above normal temperatures by limiting insolation during
the peak heating hours of the day. The net result is a forecast for
temperatures in the mid 70s and a 40 to 50 percent chance of rain
throughout the day.

As the weak upper trough moves east Friday night, it is expected to
spread weak forcing for ascent over the persistent southerly flow
that continues to bring Gulf moisture north over the state. The
combination of large scale lift over the increase in low-level
moisture is expected to result in the best rain chances across
Arkansas Friday night into Saturday morning. The continued influx of
moisture will keep overnight lows in the lower 60s across the state,
but rain chances increase to 60 to 70 percent through Saturday
morning. By Saturday afternoon, a stronger upper level trough is
expected to push into the intermountain west, replacing the longwave
riding aloft with a zonal flow (winds oriented straight west to east
aloft) regime which generally favors a progressive or faster storm
motion track. This should allow for a break in the rain shower and
thunderstorm activity across much of Arkansas Saturday afternoon and
evening aside from a few pop up showers that may develop due to high
low-level humidity and daytime heating.

Warm conditions and low, but non-zero, rain chances will remain in
the forecast Saturday night through Sunday morning. As the
intermountain west trough moves east towards Arkansas on Sunday in
the zonal flow aloft, it will spread strong large scale forcing for
ascent over the state as well as dragging a cold front southeast
across the state Sunday afternoon and evening. The timing of the
front compared to the upper level support in the form of deep lift
will play an important role in Arkansas` severe weather and
thunderstorm chances on Sunday. If the front outpaces the upper
level lift, we may not see as much rain, and our severe weather
chances will generally be reduced. If the upper level lift can
arrive with the front, we have a better chance at seeing stronger
storms out ahead of the front bringing more rainfall, but also a
better chance of severe storms across the state. While all modes of
severe weather are possible on Sunday, it is important to note that
Sunday`s severe weather set up doesn`t look nearly as vigorous as
the storm system that produced the March 14th tornadoes. That being
said, large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are still
possible on Sunday, depending on the timing of the trough and front
as discussed above.

Unsurprisingly, behind the front temperatures will be noticeably
cooler and dry air will once again push across the state. Forecast
high temperatures on Monday are only expected to climb into the
upper 60s, and despite the drier air in place, we will hold on to
some low rain chances due to the persistent zonal flow aloft. Any
rain that does fall on Monday will be very light because of the
relative dry low-level airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

VFR conditions are expected with light winds throughout the
period. Mid level clouds with rain showers will move through the
central portion of the state, but most of this precipitation will
fall as virga and not make the ground outside of some sprinkles.
Winds will shift to the SE over most the area, but remain light
this afternoon. Clouds will slowly clear out in the afternoon with
just some high clouds remaining in the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Afternoon humidity is expected to drop into the 20th percentile
once again this afternoon across all of the state. Winds will be
gusty for a few hours over the northwest but likely remain below
red flag criteria. Finer fuels remain dry and will be capable of
carrying fire, even with the overall lack of wind. Outdoor burning
remains highly discouraged as all of the state is under a high risk
of wildfire and numerous burn bans are in effect.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     77  51  82  60 /   0  10  10  10
Camden AR         72  53  81  60 /  40   0   0  20
Harrison AR       75  52  81  58 /   0  10  20  10
Hot Springs AR    75  53  80  59 /  20  10  10  20
Little Rock   AR  76  54  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
Monticello AR     73  55  82  62 /  30   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      76  53  82  57 /  30  10  10  20
Mountain Home AR  74  51  81  58 /   0  10  20  10
Newport AR        74  51  80  60 /   0  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     75  54  82  61 /  20   0  10  10
Russellville AR   79  53  84  59 /  10  10  10  10
Searcy AR         77  50  82  58 /   0  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      76  54  80  62 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....Cavanaugh
AVIATION...Barham