Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 200948
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
348 AM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night
Early this morning, surface high pressure was centered over
Kansas. Colder air was settling into Arkansas, with temperatures
ranging from the teens northwest to around freezing in the far
south. Pressure gradient between the high pressure and the front
that moved through yesterday was weakening but still strong enough
to produce wind chills in the single digits, teens, and 20s.

Winds will subside later this morning, as the gradient relaxes a
bit. As dry air moves in, clouds over central and eastern Arkansas
will continue to diminish, with all areas seeing sun by (if not
before) mid-day. Highs today will be cold, with most areas staying
in the 30s to mid 40s. Portions of northeast Arkansas may stay at
or below freezing.

The high will shift eastward tonight and Monday, with winds
gradually becoming more southerly. As a result, temperatures will
begin to moderate, though they should stay below seasonal averages
through Monday night.

Rain chances re-enter the forecast Monday night, as another low
pressure system moves off of the Rockies and drags a cold front
toward Arkansas.
&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday
Not too many changes to the long term portion of the forecast.
The period begins with positively tilted upper longwave trough
ejecting into the Plains. As the upper trough slides east, the
upper ridge responsible for the recent cold temperatures moves
east crossing over Appalachian Mtn range. At the surface, a warm
front lifts northward across AR as low pressure approaches from
the west. As the day progresses, the surface low is progged to
track across northern MO. This track places all of AR in the warm
sector on Tuesday into the late evening. Within the warm sector,
WAA and moisture advection will be evident as PW increase from
less than half an inch to more than one inch. Diffluence aloft and
downstream of the trough will create large scale lifting across
the entire region, which will be aided by the surface low and
attendant frontal boundary. Have put likely PoPs in the forecast
for Tuesday into early Wednesday to account for this, however did
not add thunder to the forecast as instability remains
questionable attm. With ample moisture flux into the area,
rainfall amounts are expected to range from half an inch to an
inch and a half. High temperatures will be mild with lower 50s to
lower 60s expected.

Upper level trough progresses east on Wednesday with the axis
centered north to south across the state by late evening. At the
surface, a quick moving cold front should sweep across the state by
sunrise. Some moisture may linger over AR behind the frontal
boundary. As CAA continues across the CWA, there may be a
transition to -SN on the north extent of the precipitation field
as the vertical column cools. Moisture will rapidly decrease
during this time, so not expecting any major or widespread
impacts. Temperatures will warm enough by late morning to
transition any wintry weather back over to a cold rain.
Temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in the mid 30s to
lower 40s. Temperatures should rebound slightly on Thursday with
highs topping out in the 40s to near 50 degrees.

By Friday, a large upper closed low over Canada begins diving south
towards the great lakes. Upper level troughing will occupy the
eastern two thirds of the nation through Sunday. As northwesterly
flow dominates, another strong cold front is expected to move
across AR late Thursday/early Friday. There will be a limited
moisture return ahead of the front, therefore not expecting any
PoPs attm with regards to the front. Cold Canadian air is expected
to stick around through Saturday. Upper level energy is expected
traverse this flow rounding the base of the trough as it moves
across AR, enhanced local ascent is expected, therefore introduced
slight chance of PoPs on Saturday into the evening. With cold air
already in place, -RA/-SN will be possible however moisture will
be very limited with the system. Confidence in this portion of the
period is pretty low. Lows will be in the upper teens to upper
20s with highs in the 30s and 40s. Models seem to have a good
handle on the overall flow regime with only small mesoscale
differences between them. Trended low temps up a bit as weak
southerly flow should help bring a slow return of moisture to the
region.
&&

.Fire Weather...
No significant fire weather issues are expected through the next
seven days.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     34  24  40  35 /   0   0   0  20
Camden AR         45  28  52  43 /   0   0   0  30
Harrison AR       34  22  41  35 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    42  26  48  40 /   0   0   0  30
Little Rock   AR  39  26  46  38 /   0   0   0  20
Monticello AR     40  27  49  41 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      42  27  48  42 /   0   0   0  30
Mountain Home AR  33  22  39  34 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        33  24  40  35 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     39  26  48  39 /   0   0   0  20
Russellville AR   39  25  45  37 /   0   0   0  30
Searcy AR         36  25  44  35 /   0   0   0  20
Stuttgart AR      38  27  46  38 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...Smith / Long Term...Jones


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