Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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711
FXUS64 KLZK 251925
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
225 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Latest data from KLZK radar indicate a few light returns from
convective cells across Arkansas county. Conditions are quite
unstable across the forecast area, with 100mb mixed layer CAPE
values of >3500 indicated.  Instability is maximized along and south
of a warm frontal boundary, subjectively analyzed at 19z along I-40
from MEM to LIT to OKC.

A number of different explicit CAM runs indicate strong convection
will develop across Oklahoma and Kansas, then will move to the east
and northeast.  Some of this activity may affect areas along the
Missouri border late tonight.

A more distinct signal for convection to affect the forecast area
appears for late Sunday and Sunday night, as a cold front approaches
from the northwest. This feature will initiate convection by mid
afternoon.  Forecast soundings indicate all hazards all possible,
with the greatest probabilities for these hazards to be across
northeast sections of the forecast area.

Dry conditions are expected for Monday, as a much drier air mass
moves into the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Not seeing any significant changes this afternoon versus what is in
the current forecast/grids and a lot of value added changes will not
be forthcoming. Model consensus continues to show a pattern that is
much quieter than what has been seen of late with just low end rain
chances and a blend of guidance will be used.

Period initiates with upper ridge over the Rockies and subsequently
broad downstream troughing over the Great Lakes resulting in NW flow
over the forecast area. Low pressure passing well to the north will
drag a back door cold front across the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday with a return to NE surface winds and relatively drier
air.

Upper ridge does pass to the north mid week with upper flow becoming
more quasi zonal in response. Several weak upper level impulses move
through the prevailing flow through the period for low end POPS.
Best chances of rain may be Tuesday night into early Wednesday as
models look to move a decaying MCS through the southwest half of the
state with the GFS a bit more on the aggressive side. There does
however remain differences in the guidance with these waves and will
just keep the low end POPS that are in place.

Temperatures will average a degree or two below average early in the
period before creeping up a little bit as the period progresses and
a warm front begins to advance from the south.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

MVFR ceilings will prevail through 21z. Best TSRA chances across
sites will occur after this valid TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  89  68  86 /  30  20  40   0
Camden AR         72  91  70  92 /  10  10  30  10
Harrison AR       68  88  62  82 /  40  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    72  91  68  91 /  20  10  40   0
Little Rock   AR  74  92  71  90 /  20  20  50  10
Monticello AR     75  92  73  92 /  10  10  50  10
Mount Ida AR      71  90  67  90 /  20  10  30   0
Mountain Home AR  69  89  63  83 /  40  30  10   0
Newport AR        73  90  69  86 /  30  20  50   0
Pine Bluff AR     74  92  72  90 /  10  20  50  10
Russellville AR   71  91  66  89 /  30  20  20   0
Searcy AR         71  90  68  88 /  20  20  50   0
Stuttgart AR      75  90  72  89 /  20  20  60  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...55