Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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486
FXUS64 KLZK 230552
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1252 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

.AVIATION...23/06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR conds wl again cont thru the fcst PD. Some high level clouds
wl stream acrs NRN AR today. Look for mid and high lvl cloud cover
to incrs tngt as a new CDFNT apchs AR fm the NW. Light winds this
mrng, wl incrs fm the S/SW at 5 to 10 mph, with gusts of 15 to 20
mph possible. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 244 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019)
Short Term...Tonight thru Thursday...

Rather benign weather across the region today, as surface high
pressure remains in control, as an upper level trof exists the
area.

Things will begin to change a bit during the day tomorrow, as the
high slides to the east, and a southerly flow returns to the area.
This will allow temps to rebound a bit tomorrow, but surface
moisture levels will remain fairly low, as deeper moisture remains
well to the south.

Yet another cold front will begin pushing down into the area late
Wednesday into Thursday, as another trof starts to drop down across
the Great Plains. Showers are likely to develop along and ahead of
the front across the northwestern part of the state, but with a lack
of deeper moisture, thunderstorm activity is expected to be somewhat
isolated.

Extended Term...Thursday Night thru Tuesday Night...
Models are in agreement that a cold front will enter northwest
Arkansas Thursday, bringing colder, drier air and rain chances to
the state. Highs Friday after the cold front will be in the mid 50s
to lower 60s.

There is still some disagreement between the models about
whether a low will form over west Texas and bring more rain through
the weekend. Several models do agree this low will form, with the
exception of the GFS, which has the cold front quickly moving
through the state with much drier air through the weekend.

There is still reason for uncertainty, with differing solutions and
a few days until this event, so PoPs will remain lower in the
forecast. Will lean toward the wetter solution, with low pressure
forming to our west, pumping warmer moist air (resulting in near
normal temperatures) into the state from the south and rain chances
through Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s
across the state, cooling slightly (upper 50s to upper 60s) into
early next week with light northerly winds.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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