Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 251142
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
642 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.AVIATION...25/12Z TAF CYCLE

CDFNT will cont making its way SWD acrs the S half of AR this
mrng. Some lingering MVFR/IFR CIGS ovr portions of SE AR wl
scatter out later this mrng. Otherwise, post-frontal low cloud
deck wl work SWD in the AR as the day progresses, with MVFR CIGS
expected ovr N AR, and low end VFR CIGS over central sections. Low
clouds wl prevail thru most of the PD in the N, with clearing
skies elsewhere by tngt. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 410 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

Remaining convection was confined to the Srn part of the FA early
this mrng. While the threat of svr storms has diminished, the
potential for additional flash flooding wl cont for a few more hrs
as the complex of storms shifts further to the SE. Elsewhere, clouds
have decreased with some patchy BR noted. The CDFNT depicting the
leading edge of the cooler/drier air was situated ovr NW AR early
this mrng.

Wl cont to monitor radar trends this mrng, but it still looks like
the bulk of the convection shld push S of the FA by daybreak. Plan
to fine tune PoPs accordingly. Meanwhile, low clouds are expected to
work into mainly the N half of AR as the day progresses, assocd with
moisture rotating arnd the departing storm system. Cannot rule out a
few light SHRA/sprinkles later today ovr N AR as a weak upr impulse
drops SEWD into the area, thanks to the resulting NW flow aloft.
However, plan to keep PoPs below threshold values today.

High pres ridge wl gradually build into the FA heading into Tue,
along with drier wx. With the upper flow still fm the NW, expect a
mix of sun and clouds on Tue as another weak upr impulse drops acrs
the region.

LONG TERM....Wednesday through Sunday

SFC high pressure will be over the region at the start of the long
term period...with an upper level shortwave departing to the SE and
an upper level ridge building across the central CONUS. This will
keep dry conditions in place during the middle of the week...with
near normal temps expected. The SFC high pressure will begin moving
east Thu...with SRLY SFC flow developing across the state.
However...mainly dry conditions will continue through Thu.

By Thu night into Fri...SFC flow will increase from the
south...resulting in increasing moisture levels for AR. This will
bring some increased POPs to the forecast...mainly across NRN and
NWRN sections of the state Thu night and Fri as some isolated to
scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible.

A strong cold front will drop SE into the state by Fri
night...moving SE through the state by Sat afternoon. Have likely
POPs mentioned with this FROPA Fri night and Sat as some organized
and widespread convection will be fairly likely. There may also be a
few strong to possibly SVR storms with this front...but it is a bit
too early to discuss details regarding the severe weather threat at
this time given some uncertainty regarding exact timing of the FROPA.

Expect POPs to decrease by Sun as the front moves SE of the state.
High pressure will move into the state for the end of the long term
period...and much colder air expected to settle into the region by
late this weekend.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


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