Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 072345
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021

.AVIATION...
An upper level system is bringing showers and thunderstorms
northwest and central Arkansas. Expect these to dissipate after
sunset. They are having trouble making it into central and south
Arkansas where a lot of dry air is in place. A cold front will
move into the north from the northeast in the morning and bring
rain chances to the north. VFR and possibly MVFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 236 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday

High pressure continues to control the weather for much of the CWA.
Scattered and isolated rain showers are possible for north and
central parts of the CWA associated with a shortwave this afternoon
into this evening. It is uncertain how much of what is seen on radar
will make it down to the ground based on RH values remaining in the
30s and 40 for much of the afternoon.

All shower activity should be out of the area around sunset tonight.
Scattered showers are possible again for the day on Saturday as an
other shortwave passes through. Current high resolution models
depict rain moving through from NW to SE and primarily confined to
the NE half of the state.

Sunday appears to be the best chance for the highest POPs across the
state with thunderstorms likely. Rainfall will likely begin towards
the end of the period Sunday lasting into the long term period.

High temperatures look to be in the upper 70s and 80s during the
period with low temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday Night

No significant changes to the extended forecast at the moment, as
things will remain generally unsettled thru the period. The forecast
starts off Sunday night with a somewhat zonal pattern across the
midsection of the country, with a cold front pushing thru the state.
Eventually a trof will begin to take shape across the Great Basin,
moving east over the Rockies by midweek. Leading up to that, it`s
likely that a few weak shortwaves will eject out across the area
ahead of the developing system.

By late in the extended term the trof will eventually push east of
the area, likely leaving the area under a quasi-zonal pattern again.
Surface temperatures will remain below average for much of the
period.

Models are showing a number of differences on the timing and
magnitude of the trof moving across the area during the period.
Overall I think it`s best to keep POPs broadbrushed at the moment,
as the specific timing of rainfall could vary quite a bit from run
to run.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51


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