Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 221931
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
231 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

Following an active wx day on Sat, a brief PD of settled wx will
resume this afternoon thru Mon, w/ Chc PoPs returning to the FA, and
the potential for more excessive rainfall increasing Tues and into
the long term.

Broken to overcast cloud cover was noted over the Natural State on
recent sat imgry, w/ last night`s cold frnt thru the S/Ern corner of
the state, and modest Nrly winds ushering in cooler and drier air.
Prominent cloud cover and Nrly winds have kept most locations in the
50s and 60s thru this afternoon.

Sfc high pressure wl cont to drift S/wrd thru Sun evening, w/ our
coolest expected morning on Mon, as most locations are expected to
dip into the upper 50s, and even some upper 40s over the far N/W.
Mon wl yield a dry and pleasant day as sfc Td`s wl lkly have fallen
into the low 50s/upper 40s, so if you have to mow your lawn, Monday
is your day...more rain is on the way, whether you really need it or
(more likely) not.

Tues, a prominent upper trof looks to be moving over the Cont
Divide, w/ a broad swath of H500 S/Wrly flow and upper diffluence
overspreading the FA. In addition to upper forcing increasing, low-
lvl winds wl become Srly once more and plentiful low-lvl moisture wl
begin to filter back into the region. Chc PoPs and the potential for
more widespread heavy rainfall wl be focused over the Wrn half of
the state on Tues as developing sfc low pressure in TX begins to
advance N/Ewrd across the quad-state vcty. This wl be the first wave
of multiple rounds of widespread heavy rain heading into the long
term PD.

&&


.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

Upper low pressure will be located in Kansas to begin the period
with areas of high pressure over the west and east coasts. This
upper low will slowly move east Tuesday night and Wednesday and will
finally be east of Arkansas Thursday. The western upper ridge will
move into the Rockies Thursday and the mid south Saturday, then
weakens Sunday.

Abundant moisture will stream into the area ahead of the approaching
upper low pressure system. Heavy rain will continue into Tuesday
night through Wednesday before tapering off Wednesday night. Rain
amounts expected during this timeframe will be 1.25 to 2.5 inches.
The cold front moves through the area Wednesday and Wednesday night
and the surface high builds in behind the front Thursday and Friday.
With the high east of Arkansas Saturday and Sunday, moisture will be
able to move back into the area. Below normal temperatures are
expected through Thursday, then above normal temperatures return
Friday and through the weekend.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     54  70  58  75 /   0  10  20  80
Camden AR         57  78  63  79 /  10  10  40  90
Harrison AR       49  66  56  68 /   0  10  40  90
Hot Springs AR    56  75  61  76 /   0  10  40  90
Little Rock   AR  58  74  63  78 /   0  10  30  90
Monticello AR     59  78  64  80 /  10  10  30  90
Mount Ida AR      54  74  61  75 /   0  10  50 100
Mountain Home AR  51  67  56  70 /   0  10  30  90
Newport AR        56  70  61  77 /   0  10  20  80
Pine Bluff AR     59  75  64  79 /  10  10  30  90
Russellville AR   55  73  61  75 /   0  10  40  90
Searcy AR         55  72  60  77 /   0  10  20  80
Stuttgart AR      59  73  63  79 /  10   0  20  80
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...232 / Long Term...51


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