Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KLZK 031138 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
640 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this evening. There
will be some low clouds/patchy fog in portions of northern
Arkansas this morning. This will create brief MVFR/IFR conditions.
Otherwise, scattered cumulus at 3500 to 4500 feet will be noted at
most locations during the day, with hit and miss showers and
thunderstorms in the northern/eastern sections of the state. Winds
today will be northwest at 6 to 12 mph. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Cold front will continue progressing south/east and out of
Arkansas by this evening. Atmosphere remains unstable in
northeast sections of the state, with CAPE values from
1000 to 1500 J/kg early this afternoon. This will likely
yield isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
in that part of the state.

Once the front exits the region, northwest flow aloft will
drive an area of high pressure toward us. This air mass
will not feel much like summer at all, with well below average
temperatures tonight/Tuesday. Dewpoints will be very tolerable,
with readings in the 50s/60s.
&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday Night
Once again, no notable changes to the forecast this period. Below
average temperatures will persist through around mid-week as large-
scale mean troughing very gradually shifts east. Later in the week,
a stout upper ridge will build deeper into TX and begin exerting
more of an influence locally, as evidenced by temps increasing back
to near average late in the period and then above average just
beyond the end of the D7 time frame. Northwest flow aloft will
persist between the synoptic troughing/ridging and, while potential
MCS activity will be most favored over the western/northern portions
of Arkansas, most areas will see only minimal thunderstorm activity.
Even then, convection will largely be modulated by the local
mesoscale environment. Stronger storms cannot be ruled out but
overall severe risk appears low. Continued model discrepancies
preclude more than chance mention of thunder for now.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  62  82  62 /  30  10   0   0
Camden AR         90  66  88  66 /  10  10   0   0
Harrison AR       80  57  79  59 /  30  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    88  64  86  65 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  87  64  85  63 /  20   0   0   0
Monticello AR     89  67  86  65 /  10  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      85  62  85  63 /  10   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  82  58  81  60 /  30  10   0   0
Newport AR        85  64  81  62 /  30  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     88  65  85  63 /  20   0   0   0
Russellville AR   86  62  85  63 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         87  63  83  62 /  20  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      86  65  83  63 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...46 / Long Term...COOPER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.