Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 191152
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
652 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.AVIATION...19/12Z TAF CYCLE

Ongoing convection ovr WRN AR wl cont to weaken this mrng, with
TEMPO groups included for some MVFR conds. Otherwise, VFR conds
wl prevail thru much of today. Another round of storms is fcst to
develop late today ovr W-Cntrl AR, eventually affecting Cntrl/Srn
parts of the FA tngt. Opted to go with PROB30 groups aft 20/00Z as
timing and areal coverage of convection still not certain. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

Sctd convection was noted earlier acre N AR, but has since
dissipated. Meanwhile, cont to monitor MCS apchg WRN AR early this
mrng. Convection acrs ERN OK conts to show a gradual weakening trend.
Hi-Res model data has also been consistent in showing this as well.
Otherwise, benign wx conds noted acrs the FA this mrng.

The ongoing MCS to our west is cont to weaken thru the mrng hrs as
the remnants work further into AR. However, the hi-res model data
cont to offer varying solutions regarding convective trends later
today and tngt, resulting in a less than stellar confidence lvl with
this fcst.

With the expected weakening trend of the apchg convection later this
mrng, have trended PoPs downward acrs the FA durg the late mrng into
the early aftn hours. Opted to lower high temps today a few degrees
fm current fcst, as plenty of higher lvl clouds are expected to
limit aftn heating somewhat.

Heading into late aftn, another round of storms is fcst to form,
primarily in the VCNTY of any leftover bndrys fm the mrng storms.
The south half of the FA still appears to be the focus for later
development, where greater instability wl be maximized. Damaging
wind gusts and large hail looks to the primary concerns.

Rain chances wl gradually diminish over the FA later tngt and Thu as
the aforementioned upr trof shifts E of AR, and a weak CDFNT drops
into AR fm the N.

LONG TERM....Friday Through Tuesday

Not too many changes are needed to the current long term forecast as
the models remain in decent agreement in the synoptic scale. Per
usual, the models are having some timing and intensity issues with
the smaller scale and a blend of models will continue to be used.

Pattern will definitely be turning more summer like during the first
part of the period as upper level ridging starts to build over the
southeast United States and becomes the dominant weather feature.

The ridge axis is looking to set up just to the east of the area in
the central gulf with southerly flow getting pretty much locked in.
This will keep very warm and humid conditions over the area with
afternoon heat indices very close to the century mark. Pattern is
not conducive to producing widespread precipitation but isolated to
widely scattered convection can not be discounted during peak
heating.

Rain chances ramp up Saturday night and into Sunday morning as the
models continue to hint at a complex of thunderstorms trying to get
organized. Specific details with this complex continue to change but
its evolution will be watched.

Overall pattern starts to become more active Sunday night when the
next trough moves out of the Rockies and into the central plains.
Thunderstorms return Sunday night through the remainder of the
period. Model differences preclude introducing POPS greater than the
chance category.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


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