Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 232313 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
513 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020


Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...



Low CIGs will continue through much of the period for most
terminals...with little in the way of improvements expected for
significant time. The NRN terminals will see some SN possible
tonight into Fri morning...with some light accumulations possible.
The precip will move out of the area later Fri morning...but low
CIGs will continue.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday...

Surface low will spin across Missouri tonight, while the upper low
tracks more or less eastward along the AR/MO border. Thick cloud
cover wrapping up into the low still extends across all of Arkansas,
although some breaks are starting to show up across southwest

The main issue tonight will be the potential for snowfall across
northern Arkansas, especially close to the track of the upper low.
In most areas across the northern zones it appears that rain will
mix with the snow, so accumulations should be light. For the most
part I have placed snowfall accumulations across the northwest zones
at a tenth to a quarter inch, although there could be some greater
amounts in higher terrain. This may make for some slippery roads for
several hours, although travel impacts should not be too extensive.

Aside from the snowfall, a cold front will be pushing across the
state overnight, bringing a west/northwest wind shift to the area.

Looking ahead, clouds should dissipate considerably tomorrow night
as high pressure builds in and the upper low moves up toward the
Great Lakes region. Temperatures will remain chilly tomorrow, but
will recover a bit on Saturday.

LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Wednesday...

Long term starts with surface high pressure to the southeast of
the state and a storm system building in from the west. 12z models
have come in a bit warmer with this system and as a result have
kept the bulk of the precipitation mainly liquid. Temperatures
could be cold enough across extreme northeast Arkansas to support
a rain/sleet mix...and will continue to watch this in future
forecasts. This system will push out quickly with minor ridging
building over the region. This will allow temperatures to warm to
near 60 degrees in southern Arkansas on Monday.

The next storm system moves into the state on Tuesday and will bring
rain to the state. At this point continued to leave thunder out of
the forecast. Did have to include a rain/snow mix Tuesday night into
Wednesday...but do believe the bulk of the moisture will be out of
the area before the coldest air is in place.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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