329
FXUS64 KMEG 252012
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
212 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 212 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Dry weather today with scattered rain showers expected to begin
tonight with the arrival of a new frontal system. Rain will last
through Sunday, ending by sunrise Monday morning as a cold front
moves through the region. Temperatures will remain mild through
the entire forecast with highs in the 40s and 50s, and possibly
60s on Wednesday. More rain is possible Thursday through next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

More mild weather today as a surface high slides to our east,
allowing warmer Gulf air to slowly nudge northward. Temperatures
have already climbed into the 50s across much of the region with
forecast highs expected to rise a few more degrees this afternoon.
All of this is happening under a strong zonal jet streak
stretching from the central Plains into the Atlantic Ocean. This
feature will be the primary driver for our weather this weekend as
it translates eastward, bringing right entrance region jet
dynamics over the Midsouth tomorrow. Rain is expected to accompany
this feature, especially given the passage of a cold front Sunday
night into Monday morning. Forecast soundings display relatively
modest PWATs (.7") with remnant dry air near the surface from
last week`s cold spell. Therefore, showers are expected to be
scattered with no concerns for widespread rainfall accumulations
greater than .5". The most rain will fall in the southern portions
of the region where surface moisture has more time to advect
northward. Rain will end by 12z Monday as the upper jet dynamics
pivot east.

A cold front, associated with a northern stream trough, is
expected to move through Monday morning. However, this front is
more tame in comparison to last week`s cold with lows only
reaching into the upper 20s and low 30s. Upper level subsidence
will exist for a few days, keeping things dry and in a warming
trend until Thursday. Highs could reach to around 60 Wednesday
afternoon.

Throughout the week another cutoff low will form along the west
coast and form a rex block over western North America. By
Wednesday, enough subtropical enhancement of this trough begins
to kick it east towards the Midsouth. This solution is widely
supported amongst LREF members. Downstream southerly warm
advection is then expected to form rain showers starting Thursday.
The upper low will be slow to move east, only making it to the
Midsouth Saturday where heavier rains are possible along a cold
front. However, the evolution of this feature becomes less
reliably resolved into next weekend. So, although rain is likely,
the magnitude of any rainfall through the end of the forecast is
still uncertain and will be determined by the location and
amplitude of this system through last few days of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

VFR conditions will continue today and tonight. Rain appears
to remain south and west of MEM, JBR and MKL through at least mid
morning tomorrow with a better chance of light rain at all sites
after 18z.  Ceilings will gradually lower to MVFR levels during
the day tomorrow and may reach IFR levels as steadier on station
rain begins tomorrow afternoon. South winds 10-12 kts this
afternoon then diminishing to near calm overnight and most of
Sunday.

30/Sirmon

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS