Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221515

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1015 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019


Skies are sunny across the forecast area with temperatures in the
50s. Another nice afternoon is in store for the region as
temperatures warm into the mid to upper 60s. Current forecast
looks good with no update needed.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019/

The omega blocking pattern that brought cool and dry conditions
to the Midsouth this past week was in the process of breaking down
Friday morning. Milder conditions are forecast for today and
Saturday, as northwest flow aloft is replaced by an upper level
ridge lifting into the MS River valley from the plains.

The western leg of the omega block, a compact closed upper low,
will lift from the central Rockies into the central plains tonight
through Saturday afternoon. Concurrently, the downstream ridge
will shift east of the Midsouth, returning southwesterly flow
aloft to our region. Rain chances will increase Saturday night,
with the ejection of a weak negatively-tilted shortwave into the
mid-MS River valley. Better rain chances arrive Sunday and Sunday
night, aided by the left front quadrant of a 100kt 250mb jet
streak. NAM and GFS prog relatively steep 850-500 mb lapse rates
of 6.8 C/km across the Midsouth Sunday afternoon and evening.
However, NAM Bufr soundings depict only modest MUCAPE, peaking at
300 J/kg Sunday evening. Net result should be numerous showers
with isolated non-severe embedded thunderstorms.

Following the system`s exit Monday, the pattern will remain
progressive. Northwest flow aloft on Monday will transition to
low amplitude upper ridging and slightly above normal temperatures
by midweek. Rain chances return late week, under strengthening
southwest flow aloft and influx of modified tropical maritime air
from the Gulf of Mexico.



12z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will persist throughout the entire period. Winds
will be from the WNW this afternoon under 10 knots, becoming light
again after sunset.




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