Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 061952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
252 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021


Convection is beginning to make its way towards the Mississippi
River. At this time cells seems to be sub-severe with reports of
small hail. Current mesoanalysis has minimal instability around
the area with robust lapse rates and some shear. As this system
progresses the threat for hail will decrease and the threat for
damaging winds will increase. There is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
out for northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and parts of
west Tennessee. As the system moves eastward the rest of west
Tennessee will likely be added to the watch. Thunderstorms will
push towards the Tennessee River and eventually move our of the
area by 8 PM. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 40s
across the area.

A surface high will build into the area Friday. This will allow
for clear skies, low humidity and high temperatures in the low
70s. Unfortunately, this wont last for long as a trough begins to
dig across the Cascades by Friday night. The trough and
associated low pressure will move eastward towards the Rockies by
Saturday morning. A warm front associated with a the low will
bring showers to the area early Saturday into Saturday night. On
Sunday the warm front will be north of the area but a cold front
will begin to move its way eastward towards the Mid-South. Showers
and thunderstorms will accompany this front. So far, areas
instability looks modest with 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, however,
low level shear will be on the order of 250 to 350 m2/s2 of storm
relative helicity. This environment will be capable of supporting
all modes of severe weather including damaging winds, large hail,
and a few tornadoes. All of this depends on how much
destabilization happens after the warm front lifts north. The best
chance for severe weather looks to be along and west of the
Mississippi River.

Temperatures through the weekend will be in the 70s, with highs on
Sunday in the 80s. Lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

After the front pushes eastward temperatures will drop 7 to 10
degrees below normal and keep those temperatures through the
beginning of next week. By midweek showers will yet again move
through the area. Will continue to monitor.



/18z TAFs/

Winds will shift from the northwest this afternoon and evening as
cold front moves across the area. Winds will be gusty for an hour
or two following the frontal passage but will diminish quickly
overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along
and ahead of this front, likely affecting the northern 3 forecast
terminals, and perhaps TUP as well. VFR conditions will prevail
outside of convection, but tempo restrictions to vis/ceilings are
possible within these thunderstorms.




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