Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 251731

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1131 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020

.UPDATE... /issued 1012 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/

Another cold front is moving through the Mid-South this morning
and will shift winds from the northwest for the remainder of the
day. Mostly dry weather is anticipated through this afternoon,
although some weak overrunning above the shallow, encroaching air
mass may result in some fog or patchy drizzle. Recent surface
observations near the KY border show visibility less than 3 miles
with ceilings down to 500 ft. Thus, patchy drizzle was added in
the north through 6 PM. Temperatures will generally top out in the
50s today wit ha few areas in the Tupelo vicinity around 60F.



.DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/

Showers have thankfully moved out of the region with dry weather
anticipated for the rest of the day. Southwest flow aloft and at
the surface ahead of the next trough currently over the Plains
will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 50s today with mostly
cloudy skies. Unfortunately, this dry weather won`t last as rain
chances increase this evening as the aforementioned upper level
trough and an associated cold front pushes through the region.
Showers will likely persist through Wednesday night but with
colder temperatures as well as moisture in place, there is a small
potential for a few snowflakes in our northwestern zones
Wednesday morning. Precipitation will likely be rain but, if areas
do see snow, no accumulations are expected.

In addition to the precipitation chances Wednesday, winds will be
quite gusty due to strong high pressure approaching from the
northwest tightening the pressure gradient. Some areas could see
gusts of 25 MPH at times. With cold advection in full effect,
highs Wednesday will generally be in the lower 40s.

On Thursday, we`ll see some dry weather as northwesterly flow
dominates. Lows will be the 20s, with high temperatures in the
lower 40s. By Thursday night into Friday morning, models are in
fair agreement about a fast moving clipper pushing eastward,
bringing light snow to the northwestern part of our forecast
area. The system still looks moisture starved but have the mention
of flurries Friday morning. Confidence is low that this will
happen so will likely not mention it in this mornings HWO. High
temperatures Friday will be in the 50s.

Saturday looks to be relatively dry as a ridge settles over the
area. Unfortunately, rain chances are quick to return Sunday night
as a cold front pushes through the area. Models start to diverge
Monday but solutions show showers persisting into midweek.




18Z TAF Set

MVFR CIGS will linger through most of the period as an upper level
trof moves through the region. Some patchy showers or drizzle will
be possible during the overnight hours. Winds will remain light
from the NW until around sunrise. Thereafter, expect speeds of
8-15 KTS with higher gusts.





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