Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 070917
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
417 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Currently...Quiet night across the region as an upper ridge
prevails. Skies are clear with some patchy fog and temps are
quite warm, in the 70s. Some high clouds from Cristobal sit just
south of the region.

Today...Strong upper level high pressure will continue today with
sunny skies this morning and some higher clouds working into
southern sections this afternoon. Expect another hot day with
highs in the lower to mid 90s. The higher temps will be along and
north of I-40 where more sun is expected. Easterly flow will
result in dewpoints falling into the the upper 60s this afternoon
which, like yesterday, will keep heat index values below 100F.

Tonight...Cristobal will be moving inland this evening and
beginning to weaken. Clouds and rain will be moving north
overnight. The rain shield will be on the doorstep of the Mid-
South by sunrise. Another mild night on tap with lows in the 70s.

Monday through Tuesday...The remnants of Cristobal will track
through Arkansas on Monday and quickly lift into the middle MS
Valley by noon Tuesday. Models continue to accelerate this system
which is a bit of good news for rainfall amounts which have been
trimmed a bit this forecast cycle. Heaviest amounts of 2-3 inches
are forecast across eastern AR/NW MS. Nevertheless, with PWs
around 2.5 inches and the decent possibility of convective bands
with locally higher amounts than the general QPF forecast, have
decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch across eastern AR and parts
of NW MS for Monday and Monday night. Eastern parts of the Mid-
South along the TN River and AL line may not see an inch from the
system. Expect gusty winds across mainly western sections of the
Mid-South, closer to the circulation. Should see frequent gusts
over 30 mph Monday afternoon into Monday night with gusty
conditions continuing into Tuesday. Landfalling tropical system
often spawn isolated tornadoes on their eastern flank due to
large amounts of low level shear. Convective bands rotating
through the area could produce a few weak tornadoes Monday into
Monday night. The tornado threat may continue into Tuesday morning
but will end by noon as the mid level trough swings through.
Things will quiet down by Tuesday afternoon as the system races
north.

Tuesday night...A cold front will sweep through overnight. There
is some concern storms could develop as the front plows into a
fairly unstable airmass accompanied by a decent amount of vertical
wind shear. Some models are developing convection while other are
less aggressive. If storms do develop a few strong to severe
storms are possible.

Wednesday through Saturday...Rain chances will quickly diminish
Wednesday morning. spectacular stretch of weather on tap for this
period as dry and mild high pressure builds over the area along
with NW flow aloft. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the
60s along with a few 50s in the cooler spots. Dewpoints will be
in the 50s which, in early June, is cause enough for a celebration.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFs

Status quo through the night with VFR and light winds favoring the
east. Pressure gradient increases by midmorning Sunday. Despite
favorable thermal and moisture profiles for SCT/BKN cumulus,
subsident ring around the far periphery of TS Cristobal should
partially limit cumulus development.

Pressure gradient tightens a bit Sunday night, though -SRHA/TSRA
will hold off until after 12Z Monday.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning
     for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning
     for Coahoma-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tunica.

TN...None.
&&

$$



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