652
FXUS64 KMEG 120153
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
853 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Francine made landfall along the Louisiana cost earlier this
evening and is tracking inland and weakening. No significant
changes to the forecast this evening. Francine will weaken to a
depression by the time it reaches the Mid-South Thursday
afternoon. Rain bands will start moving into north MS shortly.
Expect heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Mid-South
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 4-6 inches will be common across
areas east of the MS River, mainly across NE MS where a Flash
Flood Watch has been issued. We will see some response across the
river system but they are starting from such a low point there
seems little threat of seeing much river flooding. Wind gusts to
40 mph, perhaps even a little higher, will be common across the
area. Expect downed tree limbs and a few power outages. The
tornado threat will be mainly east of the AL line but could sneak
into NE MS if some surface based instability is realized. Right
now the CAMs are not too bullish on that happening.

SJM

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 414 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Hurricane Francine is expected to make landfall tonight across
Louisiana and move north into Mississippi later tonight into
Thursday morning. The system is expected to weaken into a post-
tropical depression by Thursday night. Heavy rainfall is expected
across the Mid-South with storm total rainfall amounts averaging
between 3-5 inches, especially east of the Mississippi River. The
greatest threat for damaging winds and perhaps short-lived
tornadoes will be over northeast Mississippi Thursday afternoon
into Thursday evening. Sustained winds 20 to 25 mph with
occasional wind gusts to 40 mph are also possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

GOES-16 satellite and radar trends show Hurricane Francine
located just south of Intercoastal City, Louisiana. Regional
WSR-88D radars show the leading edge rain showers located from
the ArkLaTex back through northern Louisiana and into southern
Mississippi. Meanwhile, rainfree conditions still persist across
the Mid-South this afternoon with a gradual increase in clouds.
Temperatures across most locations are in the 80s as of 3 PM.

Hurricane Francine is expected to make landfall this evening over
Louisiana and gradually weaken into a post-tropical Depression
over the Mid-South Thursday night into Friday morning. Latest high
resolution ensemble guidance along with operational deterministic
models show the potential for a total 3 to 5 inches of rain to
fall over the Mid-South, predominantly east of the Mississippi
River. No changes were made to the existing Flood Watch over
portions of north Mississippi as soils remain dry with the main
impacts expected to be mostly over urban areas.

The overall potential for severe thunderstorms still appears to
remain mostly to the east of the Mid-South since the best
instability axis will reside over Alabama. Nonetheless, enough
shear will be present for the potential of low-topped mini-
supercells over northeast Mississippi if any surface-based
instability can be realized. The main threats with this system
will be damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and possibly short-lived
tornadoes. HREF grand ensemble probabilities (50 percent or
greater) for wind gusts over 50 mph will be possible over this
same aforementioned area.

Long-range model trends indicate the remnants of Francine will
linger over the Southeast United States into early next week. This
will bring a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms each
day, mainly east of the Mississippi River. An upper-level ridge
over the Southern Plains will try to build back into the Lower
Mississippi Valley with rain chances remaining lower over east
Arkansas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

VFR conditions will continue through this evening. Ceilings will
lower overnight as the outer bands from Hurricane Francine move
into the region. IFR ceilings are expected across the entire Mid-
South on Thursday with visibilities lowering due to rain. Winds
will be mainly from the east tonight at around 10 knots before
shifting the northeast and increasing overnight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for ARZ009-
     018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ113-
     115.

MS...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for
     MSZ001>017-020>024.

     Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Thursday through Thursday evening for
     MSZ013>016-022>024.

TN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for TNZ001-
     002-019-020-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ARS