Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 191720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1220 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 956 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/

Expect another warm and humid day across the Mid-South. Current
temperatures are already in the low 80s at many locations with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s areawide. Most areas will
remain dry though a few storms can`t be ruled out near the
TN/KY/MO border today in response to a shortwave lifting through
the area. Trimmed back PoPs across the north based on current
trends and the latest hi- res model guidance. Otherwise the
forecast is on track.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/

Another quiet morning across the Mid South. We should remain
mostly dry across the Mid South today ans temperature climb into
the low to mid 90s. A few showers or storms could be possible
across the TN/KY border, but most of the region should be dry
today and Friday. The next chance of more widespread organized
convection looks to impact the area on Saturday afternoon through
Sunday as a cold front is expected to move through the area. This
timing would provide access to pretty decent CAPE. The SPC has
portions of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather on
Saturday. Guidance still points to a cold front passing through
the Mid South late Saturday into Sunday. Main threats with the
stronger storms will be hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain. The front
pushes south and stalls over the southeast US and will return
north as a warm front by Monday ahead of another system that will
impact the region Tuesday. This system needs to be watched as
well. The main take away is that rain chances will increase this
weekend and stay in the forecast through at least next Wednesday
as an active pattern sets up over the Mid South going into the



VFR conditions expected through the period. LLWS is likely at all
sites tonight in response to a 45-50kt LLJ. Surface wind 10-15kts
with gusts possible to 25kts this this afternoon tonight and
tomorrow. Gusts may diminish a bit overnight.




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