Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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277
FXUS62 KMFL 170027 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
827 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021

.UPDATE...
High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the Southeastern
United States tonight with a dissipating frontal boundary over the
Florida Keys. This will keep the tight pressure gradient in place
over South Florida with moderate to breezy easterly winds.
The weather will remain mostly dry over South Florida tonight, but
there could still be a few showers affecting the southeastern
areas of South Florida this evening. Therefore, the slight chance
of POPs will remain in place for the evening hours before going
dry for the overnight hours.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time an no other changes
are planned at this time.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...
The winds will remain easterly through Monday with speeds around
around 10 knots tonight increasing to around 15G25KTS on Monday.
The ceiling and vis will remain in VFR conditions along with
mostly dry weather. There could be a isolated shower or two over
the east coast TAF sites, but not enough to put in the TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 319 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021)

SHORT TERM (Rest of Today and Sunday)...

High pressure across the eastern CONUS. An enhanced pressure
gradient will lead to a breezy and at times gusty northeasterly
wind. A few showers have been developing over the Atlantic waters
and Gulf stream and moving over the east coast along the breeze.
Overall most showers are fairly light with little accumulation.
While the mid-levels are dry there is enough low-level moisture to
allow for these scattered showers over the east coast the rest of
the afternoon. Overall coverage should be fairly limited.

As we move into Monday the pressure gradient should begin to weaken
some with wind speeds gradually subsiding. A mostly dry Monday
outside of a few isolated showers possible. High temperatures in the
low to mid 80s, while the interior and west coast should reach the
upper 80s to low 90s

LONG TERM...

Monday Night through Friday...

An amplified flow pattern will evolve aloft featuring eastern
ridging with deepening troughing throughout the Great Basin and
Intermountain West. While an area of deeper moisture and lower
pressures is still expected across the Caribbean Sea, forecast
models are in better agreement in keeping this moisture feed
confined to our southwest as stronger ridging builds into our area.
So while daily shower/storm chances will exist coverage and overall
amounts shouldn`t be overly impressive with ridging in place and
only shallow lower tropospheric moisture to work with. The strong
pressure gradient will maintain a breezy easterly wind component
with gusts of 25+ mph possible with wind surges at times. Given
the strength of onshore flow high temperatures should remain
warmest across the wester half of the area (upper 80s-lower 90s),
while eastern locations should remain a touch cooler (low to mid
80s).

Next Weekend...

The upper ridge should retrograde towards the Gulf Coast region as
troughing locates offshore from the Eastern Seaboard. This should
maintain or even strengthen surface high pressure across our area
and push any lingering moisture away as precipitable water values
fall below 1 inch. As a result only low end shower chances are
anticipated with no widespread or meaningful rainfall. Near
normal temps are expected, although highs may be a touch below
average along the east coast with a continued onshore wind
component.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. Breezy
and at times gusty northeast to easterly winds. A few showers
along the breeze are possible, with some possibly moving over the
east coast terminals. However,coverage and impacts should be
limited. Breezy easterly winds continue tomorrow.

MARINE...

High pressure slowly strengthen through the week over the
Southeastern United States. This will keep the the pressure
gradient tight over South Florida allowing for breezy to windy
easterly wind flow across South Florida waters especially over the
Atlantic waters.

Hi-res models are also depicting an easterly wind surge in the Gulf
waters late this evening into the early morning hours. Therefore, a
short-fuse Small Craft Advisory has been issued beginning at 8PM
EDT.

The weather should remain mostly dry through the week over most of
South Florida waters, except for a few showers from time to time in
the Atlantic waters.

BEACHES...

High Risk of Rip Currents have been extended until at least end of
this week due to the breezy to windy easterly wind flow through the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  84  73  85 /  10  10  20  30
West Kendall     72  85  71  86 /  20  10  20  30
Opa-Locka        72  84  71  85 /  10  10  10  30
Homestead        72  83  72  84 /  20  20  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  74  83  74  84 /  10  10  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  72  83  73  84 /  10  10  10  20
Pembroke Pines   72  84  72  85 /  10  10  10  30
West Palm Beach  70  84  71  84 /   0  10  20  30
Boca Raton       72  83  73  84 /  10  10  10  30
Naples           68  89  68  91 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

Update/Aviation...BNB
Tonight/Monday...Kelly
Marine...Kelly/BNB
Monday Night through Sunday...SPM

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