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000
FXUS62 KMFL 211734
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1234 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to continue for all TAF sites through the
forecast period. N winds gradually becoming NE and will veer from
E by 06-09Z and increase to 15-20knots by 14z tomorrow. Isolated
showers may develop throughout the night but overall a dry pattern
will remain.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 931 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019/

UPDATE...

The small craft advisory for the Gulf has been cancelled as winds
have come down a bit this morning. However, mariners should still
exercise caution as NE winds of 10-15 kts and 4-6ft seas will
continue through this evening. Along the coastal beaches, a high
risk of rip currents remains in effect for Collier County through
this evening. Have added a high risk of rip currents for the
Atlantic beaches tomorrow as the winds look to increase out of
the east around 15-20kts. The increase in winds tomorrow may
warrant a small craft advisory for the Atlantic.

Otherwise, cool early morning temperatures from yesterday`s
frontal passage have begun their ascent. This allowed Miami, Fort
Lauderdale, and Naples to experience the coolest temperatures
since last January. The rest of today looks to remain cool and dry
as high pressure builds over South Florida today. The rest of the
forecast looks on track and no other changes are anticipated at
this time.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (Today-Wednesday): A cold morning across South Florida
with temperatures dipping into the upper 30s and 40s across the
region. Winds have decreased enough over portions of the interior
where some patchy frost may be able to develop. Particularly over
Glades and Hendry counties this morning.

High pressure building over the eastern US behind the front will
dominate the weather pattern for the first half of the week. Winds
will veer becoming northeasterly today then easterly  the next
couple of days as the high continues to slide east into the
Atlantic. This will allow help gradually moderate afternoon highs
and morning lows as we move through mid-week.

LONG TERM (Thursday into next weekend): Models continue to agree
with the next cold front moving into the region Thursday and exiting
the region by Thursday night/early Friday morning. Similar to the
last front, an increased chance of showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms as the front progresses through.

Behind the front a pleasant beginning of weekend in store as high
pressure builds with cool temperatures returning to South Florida.
Towards the end of the weekend we will have to keep an eye on models
continue to develop a strong mid-upper level trough that will be
moving across the CONUS. This could result in our next front and
increased rain chances. Will continue to monitor the progression of
this feature as we move through the week.

MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf waters
through this morning. Winds will be northeasterly to easterly 15-20
knots. Seas in the Gulf will be 6 to 8 feet this morning
particularly the outer Gulf waters. Seas will gradually begin to
diminsh throughout the day. Seas in the Atlantic will be 4 to 6
feet. A northerly swell in the Atlantic, increasing seas and
breezy easterly winds may lead to a small craft advisory being
issued tomorrow.

BEACH FORECAST...
There is a high risk of rip currents at Collier County
Beaches today. A moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic coast
beaches today. An elevated risk for Atlantic coast beaches will
likely continue through at least mid-week.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  68  60  73  65 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  69  63  74  69 /  10  10  10  10
Miami            70  62  74  68 /  10  10  10  10
Naples           67  53  75  63 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ069.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...11/HVN
DISCUSSION...33/Kelly
MARINE...33/Kelly
AVIATION...11/HVN
BEACH FORECAST...33/Kelly