995
FXUS62 KMFL 170700
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
300 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Overall, hazardous heat will continue to be the main weather headline across
South Florida over the next few days with afternoon heat index
values well into the triple digits. Today, a mid-level ridge over
the southeastern Gulf will start to build over the Florida
Peninsula, which will help stabilize the environment and keep
conditions generally drier, but there will remain chances for a
few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon along sea breeze
boundaries. While conditions will be less favorable for strong to
severe storms than they have been in recent days, there could
still be a storm capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
small hail along the sea breeze.

On Saturday, the mid-level ridge will remain over South Florida, while
a trough pushes into the northern Gulf states and Southeast US.
This setup will allow the airmass over the area to warm a bit more
under south-southwest flow, and support isolated afternoon
showers and thunderstorms along sea breeze boundaries.

High temperatures today will peak in the low to mid 90s for most locations,
with heat index values ranging from 103 to 107. A Heat Advisory
has been issued for Miami-Dade County for heat index values above
105. On Saturday, high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer,
reaching the mid to upper 90s across South Florida, with heat
index values up to 110 possible. Additional heat advisories or
warnings may be needed for several counties on Saturday afternoon.
Overall, whether advisories or warnings are issued or not, anyone
sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside or
take cooling breaks and stay hydrated if required to be outside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

The long term period will start off with one more day of hazardous heat as
the hot and humid airmass remains over most of South FL on Sunday
with south-southwest flow. Throughout the day, a frontal boundary
associated with a mid-level trough over the Southeast US will
gradually push across Central FL and into our area. Along and
ahead of this frontal boundary there will be scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. With the front not
reaching our area until later in the day, high temperatures will
be able to reach the low to mid 90s, with heat index values in the
triple digits and potentially reaching advisory levels.

As the front continues to slowly pass through the region on Monday, there
will be chances for showers and thunderstorms, with some strong
storms possible to start the new week. With a cooler airmass and
more cloud coverage, high temperatures will be lower than on
Sunday, generally in the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat index
values near 100. After the front clears the area Monday night, a
slightly cooler airmass will settle in through at least mid-week,
providing relief from the recent stretch of heat with high
temperatures likely in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area,
and low temperatures in the 70s. With a drier airmass in place,
shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the low side, but we
could still see a few each afternoon along sea breeze boundaries.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period, although
some reduced flight categories in stratus will be possible this
morning at all terminals. Additionally isolated-scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible at the east coast terminals
from 18 to 00Z but low confidence in storm overage only warrants
a VCSH with this package. Light and variable winds will trend W-SW
at most sites, with the east coast sites seeing a shift to the SE
in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Mainly benign conditions today and over the weekend with light to
moderate southwesterly to southerly flow. There will be some
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Atlantic
waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally chaotic seas
at times and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Light winds will lead to a low rip current risk along both the Atlantic and
Gulf coasts today and over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            94  81  94  80 /  20   0  20  10
West Kendall     96  77  96  78 /  10   0  20  10
Opa-Locka        95  79  95  80 /  30   0  20  10
Homestead        95  79  94  80 /  10   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  92  80  93  80 /  30  10  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  93  80  94  80 /  30  10  30  20
Pembroke Pines   96  80  96  80 /  30  10  20  10
West Palm Beach  93  76  94  77 /  20  10  30  20
Boca Raton       93  79  94  78 /  30  10  30  20
Naples           91  79  93  79 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ073-074-173-174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Carr