Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 181049
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
549 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

.Aviation...
Generally VFR but gusty easterly flow will persist with a tendency
more north of east this morning that will become south of east to
southeasterly by tonight. With the front being south of the
region, rain shower chances should be minimal on Saturday.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 320 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020/

..Hazardous Marine and Beach Conditions This Weekend...
..Early week cold front before chilly mid-week mornings...

Short Term (Today through Sunday)...
Easterly flow from surface high pressure centered over the Mid-
Atlantic states will remain gusty today. Moisture is fairly limited
and the threat of even sprinkles should diminish after sunrise this
morning. Aloft, a ridge of high pressure sitting over the Greater
Antilles will help keep a lid on any potential convective activity.
Temperatures along the Atlantic coast will feel a bit cooler thanks
to the gusty easterly flow while the Gulf coast could again push
into the lower 80s. Tonight should be comfortable with temperatures
a few degrees above climatological norms ranging from mid to upper
60s along the Atlantic to upper 50s over inland portions of
Southwest Florida.

The pattern begins to shift on Sunday as the surface high pressure
slides eastward into the Atlantic giving way to the approaching
Great Lakes low pressure system. A cold front associated with this
system will stretch into the Gulf of Mexico and will move
southeastward entering northern Florida late Saturday and knocking
on Central Florida`s door early on Sunday. The wind will go from
easterly to southeasterly today and become more southwesterly by
Sunday afternoon. Accordingly, additional moisture and a warming
trend will be the story on Sunday. Rain chances will still be
minimal as the front will still be distant enough on Sunday where
the influence of the ridge aloft will remain.

Sunday night is a different story as a pre-frontal trough could
bring some rain chances to the area ahead of the main front.
Thunderstorm chances are non-zero but lack of much mid to upper
level support for convection with just the trough moving through
increase confidence in leaving mention of thunderstorms out of the
forecast for now.

Long Term (Monday through Friday)...
A pre-frontal trough should be south of South Florida on Monday
leading to a northerly wind flow. However, there could still be a few
showers over South Florida on Monday ahead of a strong cold front
that should move through the region Monday night, as some low level
moisture remain in place over South Florida.

The strong cold front should move through South Florida Monday night
bringing in dry air along with much colder conditions for Tuesday
into Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will struggle to
get into the 60s. Lows Tuesday morning will be 40s over the
interior and west coast metro areas with 50s over the east coast
metro areas. However, the wind chill readings on Tuesday morning
will be around 40 west of Lake Okeechobee due to the northerly
winds around 5 mph. Lows on Wednesday morning will be even colder
with 40s over the eastern areas of South Florida to the mid to
upper 30s over the western areas except around 40 west coast metro
areas.

The air mass over South Florida will then warm up to near normal
conditions late this week, as the high will be moving into the
Atlantic waters from the Southeastern United States. This will allow
for the winds swing to an easterly direction late this week allowing
for the highs to get back into the 70s with lows getting back into
the 50s, except in the lower to mid 60s over the east coast metro
areas which is a little bit above the normal temperatures for this
time of year.

Marine...
Two rounds of hazardous conditions with the first this weekend as
gusty easterly winds due to the gradient between building high
pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and the backdoor cold front to our
south and swell. Conditions will briefly improve ahead of the next
front on Monday with deteriorating conditions forecast behind the
front heading into mid-week. Small Craft Advisories may be
necessary, particularly for the Atlantic waters, through the end
of the week.

Beach Forecast...
Gusty easterly flow and swell in the Atlantic will create a high
risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches today which will
likely persist into Sunday. Accordingly, the Rip Current Statement
has been extended through 00z Monday for the Atlantic beaches of
South Florida. Rip Current potential remains highest along the
Palm Beaches through a good portion of the week, though the rest
of the Atlantic beaches remain elevated as well.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  76  65  81  64 /  10   0  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  76  68  80  67 /  10  10  10  20
Miami            77  66  81  66 /   0  10  10  20
Naples           81  63  80  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ651-671.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for AMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ630.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

Aviation...02/RAG


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