Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 192358 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
758 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.AVIATION...Next area of moderate RA currently affecting Gulf
coast and will move into east coast sites 01Z-02Z. Expect
prevailing IFR conditions to continue at KAPF with RA, with
conditions improving after 05Z. For east coast sites, likely
prevailing MVFR in cigs & vsby with RA 02Z to 08Z or so, with
tempo IFR at times in heavier rain. Cigs becoming MVFR as rain
tapers to SHRA and winds become NNW. May see periods of BR late as
rain ends. Cigs linger through around 15Z, with VFR conditions
for tomorrow.

&&

.UPDATE...
The stationary front remains over the Florida Keys this evening,
as a weak cold front has moved down into the Lake Okeechobee
region. The weak cold front will continue to move southward this
evening and should be over the Florida Keys by late tonight. Ahead
of the front, showers have developed over the western areas of
South Florida early this evening. These showers will continue to
move east southeast this evening through rest of the mainland
areas of South Florida before moving into the Atlantic waters
after midnight. Therefore, the pops will remain in the scattered
to numerous range over south Florida this evening before tapering
down from west to east after midnight.

The northeast winds over the Atlantic waters will slowly decrease
from 20 to 25 knots early this evening down to 10 to 15 knots by
Wednesday morning. The northeast winds over the Gulf waters will
also slowly decrease this evening and should be 10 to 15 knots in
the near-shore and 15 to 20 knots in the offshore waters by
Wednesday morning. The winds over the Lake Okeechobee and Biscayne
Bay waters will also decrease down to 10 to 15 knots by Wednesday
morning. The Atlantic seas however will take some time to
decrease tonight into Wednesday and should be below 7 feet by
Wednesday evening. Therefore, the SCA will remain in effect for
the Atlantic waters through Wednesday evening, and for the Gulf
waters through this evening before dropping down to an SCEC
conditions. Rest of the local waters waters will see the SCEC
continue for this evening.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019/

..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

..DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...The showers that been
occurring over South Florida this morning into the early afternoon
over South Florida have moved east into the Atlantic waters, as
low pressure has moved east into the Southern Bahamas along the
stationary front that is located over the Florida Straits.

The drier weather will not last long over South Florida, as a
weak cold front over Northern Florida will be moving southward
and through South Florida late this evening into the overnight
hours tonight. This will allow for another round of scattered to
numerous showers to develop over South Florida late this evening
into the overnight hours. Rainfall amounts from these showers
should be less than half an inch, but could see some isolated
areas getting up to around one inch especially over the east coast
metro areas.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...The latest short range models show weak
low pressure moving through the Tennessee Valley into the Great
Lakes. This will allow for another cold front to move through
South Florida on Thursday bringing drier and cooler weather to the
area for late this week. However, there could still be a few
showers around on Wednesday into early Thursday over South Florida
before the front moves through the area.

EXTENDED FORECAST...The cooler and drier air will remain over
South Florida this weekend over South Florida, as high pressure
builds into the Florida Peninsula from the north. Highs this
weekend will be in the 70s to lower 80s, as lows in the 50s to
lower 60s, except 40s west of Lake Okeechobee especially Thursday
night and Friday night.

MARINE...The northeast winds will slowly decrease from windy
conditions this afternoon to less than 10 knots Wednesday night.
The winds will then back to more of a northerly direction late
this week with speeds increasing to breezy conditions.

The Atlantic Seas will slowly decrease from 8 to 10 feet this
afternoon to 4 to 6 feet by late Wednesday. The Atlantic seas will
then remain at 4 to 6 feet late this week. The Gulf seas will
remain below 6 feet through late this week. Therefore, an SCA
will remain in effect for the Atlantic waters through Wednesday
afternoon with an SCA conditions for the Gulf waters through this
evening.

BEACH FORECAST...The High Risk of Rip Currents will remain in
place for the east coast beaches through Wednesday afternoon, due
to the northeast wind flow. The threat of rip current will then
slowly decrease through late this week as the wind flow back to
more of a northerly direction. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  63  77  62  77 /  80  40  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  65  76  64  78 /  80  40  30  20
Miami            66  78  65  79 /  80  30  30  10
Naples           60  78  59  78 /  90  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

UPDATE...54/BNB


AVIATION...88/ALM







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