Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 150843
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
343 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

.Short Term (Today through Monday Night)...
A frontal boundary crossed SoFlo yesterday, with a drier and
cooler air mass filtering into the area in its wake. Meanwhile, a
deep high pressure ridge is expanding across the SE states, with
its southern periphery bringing veering winds to the NE and E
through the short term.

A short-lived cold air advection event will usher cooler low temps
this morning with lower 50s over northern interior areas to lower
60s along the coast. But by this afternoon, the air mass will begin
modifying rather quickly, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Weather conditions should be great for today and tomorrow, with a
relatively stable air mass establishing across SoFlo and zonal flow
establishing aloft as the aforementioned high pressure expands over
the region in the wake of the FROPA. Temperatures bounce back on
Monday with afternoon highs climbing into the low to mid 80s.

.Long Term (Tuesday through Saturday Night)...
Southeasterly to southerly winds and increasing rain chances are
expected on Tuesday as a cold front pushes southeastward into the
state. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on
Tuesday afternoon, with deeper moisture returning to the area.
Additional showers will be possible along the actual cold front
when it finally pushes through the area late Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning, with breezy north to northeasterly flow
expected in the wake of the front Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Cooler and drier conditions are expected in the wake of the front,
with high temperatures on Wednesday forecast in the upper 60s
west of the Lake to the upper 70s across far South Florida. Since
this depends on the front clearing the area Wednesday morning, any
slowing of the front could have significant impacts to the high
temperature forecast on Wednesday. Low temperatures Wednesday
night are forecast to be the coldest of the period and range from
the mid/upper 40s west of the Lake to near 60 right along the
East Coast.

Northeasterly to easterly flow returns on Thursday into Thursday
night as surface high pressure over the southeastern CONUS pushes
eastward, kicking off another gradual moisture return over the
area. Forecast gets quite interesting towards the end of the
period as another cold front is expected to push across the area.
GFS solution now has a less amplified trough pushing southeastward
with the surface low developing off the Georgia coast and dragging
a cold front across the area Friday night into Saturday. At the
same time, it shows another low developing near Cuba and pushing
quickly northeastward across the Keys and over the Bahamas before
having the two lows do some sort of Fujiwara dance as they push
northeastward over the Atlantic. The ECMWF is somewhat similar in
that it shows a less amplified trough with the main surface low
developing and deepening off the Georgia coast and dragging a cold
front across the area on Saturday. It also has another surface
low developing over the Bahamas and pushing northeastward with the
other, stronger low. Right now it`s far too soon to tell what
kind of impacts, if any, South Florida would see from this system
next weekend. Plus, given the ...odd solutions in these latest
runs I would expect things to change at least a decent bit as we
get closer.

&&

.Marine...
Conditions in the Atlantic waters are subsiding as high pressure
builds closer to the area. Persistent moderate easterly flow will
return later today, keeping seas under highlight criteria. A mid-
week cold front could bring periods of hazardous conditions over the
area waters through the end of the work week.

&&

.Aviation...
Light to moderate NW winds will veer to the NE and E
later today, except APF where an onshore component will bring SW
flow this afternoon. VFR will prevail during the next 24 hours at
all TAF sites with high pressure well in control of the area
weather.

&&



.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  78  67  81  70 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  79  70  81  73 /   0   0  10  20
Miami            81  70  83  72 /   0   0  10  20
Naples           80  63  83  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


Marine...17/AR
Aviation...17/AR
Short Term...17/AR
Long Term...32/MM


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