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000
FXUS62 KMFL 081844
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
244 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Latest analysis shows surface high pressure over the central
Atlantic, and a frontal boundary over the SE states with several
areas of low pressure riding along the front. At the upper levels,
there is low pressure over upper New England and a trough to our
west over the Gulf. With the surface high to our east, the low level
flow will be S/SW today, and plenty of moisture is streaming into
South FL from the SW ahead of the trough in the Gulf. PWAT values
off the 12Z MFL sounding are already 1.9 inches and should remain in
that region today. One weak disturbance is moving through the area
early this afternoon with a round of convection, and then additional
convection is expected to move mainly from west to east later this
afternoon into this evening. While storms will be efficient rain
makers today, the progressive nature of storms will limit the
flooding potential, however some isolated instances will still be
possible over the east coast metro if boundary interactions cause
training of storms over the same area. With DCAPE values once again
around 1000 J/kg today and effective shear of 30-40 kts, a few
strong to borderline severe storms can`t be ruled out, with strong
wind gusts the primary threat.

Convection wanes this evening with the loss of daytime heating,
however scattered showers and storms will remain along the coasts
and far southern peninsula. It`ll be another warm and muggy evening,
with low temps around 70 near the lake, and mid to upper 70s across
the metro.

On Friday the frontal boundary over the SE states will slowly slide
south towards northern FL and the upper level trough axis over the
Gulf will move closer to the area. A W/SW flow is expected across
the area, albeit a bit weaker than today. Convection will again
favor interior and SW FL earlier in the day and then favor the east
coast metro later in the day. With the weaker flow, an Atlantic
breeze will try to make a push in the afternoon across the metro.
Severe and flooding threat again looks limited, with the best
chances likely occurring along the sea breeze and any boundary
interactions. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to
lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023


Fairly unsettled long term period as strong mid-upper level
troughing will dominate the longwave pattern across the eastern
CONUS. A frontal boundary associated with a strong upper level
cyclone over the Northeast will be stalled across northern Florida
to open the period keeping the Southern Florida under a south-
southwesterly regime through the majority of the weekend as this
boundary lingers and fizzles to the north. With enhanced moisture
transport, PWATs will remain in the 1.6 to 2 inch range which is
above average for this time of year. This will favor scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the interior and eastern
portions of South Florida each afternoon through the weekend. By
the end of the weekend, another upper level cyclone begins to
deepen across the Great Lake States by early Monday morning. This
system will drift east-southeast and will bring another frontal
boundary towards the Florida peninsula keeping the area under
enhanced south- southwesterly flow through the beginning portion
of next week. This should keep above-average PWATs across our area
and support scattered (to perhaps numerous at times) showers and
thunderstorms favored across interior and eastern South Florida.
Towards the end of the long term period, the Bermuda high begins
to strengthen and surface flow will subsequently try to veer more
east to southeasterly by late Wednesday although depending on how
this feature evolves, we may not return to an easterly regime
until later on in the month.


High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s each
afternoon with heat indices potentially approaching 100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Scattered thunderstorms today will result in brief flight
restrictions and erratic winds. Outside of storms, SW winds 10-15
kts relaxing to 10 kts or less overnight. Additional showers and
storms are expected on Friday which may result in additional brief
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Generally benign conditions will be present into the end of the
week. However, there will continue to be daily chances of scattered
showers and thunderstorms, which could result in locally chaotic
seas and gusty winds at times. Outside of convection, seas in the
Atlantic generally 3 ft or less and 2 ft or less in the Gulf through
Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today for the Palm Beaches
due to a slight NE swell. The swell dissipates later today, and with
predominately off-shore flow through the end of the week, the rip
risk will decrease.

High tides the next two evenings will remain elevated however are
expected to crest below minor flood stage along the coasts. Tide
levels will continue to decrease this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  91  75  89 /  50  70  20  40
West Kendall     74  91  73  92 /  50  70  20  40
Opa-Locka        75  90  74  91 /  50  70  20  40
Homestead        74  89  73  89 /  60  70  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  75  89  74  89 /  50  70  20  40
N Ft Lauderdale  76  89  74  89 /  40  70  20  40
Pembroke Pines   75  90  74  91 /  40  70  20  40
West Palm Beach  73  89  73  89 /  20  70  20  50
Boca Raton       75  89  73  91 /  40  70  20  40
Naples           77  89  76  89 /  50  60  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...CMF