521
FXUS62 KMFL 151721
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
121 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

As we head into the middle of the week, the low off the Atlantic
coast will traverse the south-central Florida Peninsula through the
day today and advect into the Gulf for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
The National Hurricane Center currently has this disturbance with a
medium chance (40%) of developing into a tropical cyclone in the
next 48 hours and also a medium chance (40%) in the next 7 days.
However, regardless of development this system looks to move further
away from the area towards the western Gulf in the next several days
and not threaten South Florida, but it will still cause a couple
more rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms both
today and tomorrow.

As far as the specific details on today`s forecast, the center of
the low looks to cross through just north of the Lake O area,
resulting in a primarily S/SSE flow across South Florida. This will
focus or steer most of the convection today across northern portions
of the CWA and around Lake O, along with low level convergence being
maximized in that area. Nevertheless, plenty of positive vorticity
advection will stream across SE Florida with the low advecting
across the Peninsula and will provide enough forcing for some
scattered showers and storms across the rest of South Florida as
well. This scenario will likely play itself out again on Wednesday,
as the abundantly moist air mass (PWATs over 2.0" for most of the
area) lingers and the disturbance will still be close enough to help
provide some forcing for ascent. It is worth noting that the
atmospheric column will be highly saturated and overall warmer given
the southerly flow the next couple of days (500mb temps around -6C),
so instability while still adequate will be lower and likely lead to
convection stabilizing after an initial growth period. As a result,
the potential for a widespread flooding risk looks low as stronger
showers/storms fade out quicker or there would just be some light
stratiform rain for a lengthy period. Can`t completely rule out the
chance that an isolated location or two could receive enough
rainfall in a short time to observe flooding on roadways or in poor
drainage areas, but that is likely to be a reasonable worst case
scenario. Given the isolated risk, the Weather Prediction Center
still maintains South Florida in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall, but this was downgraded from a slight risk. Similarly,
severe thunderstorm potential is also low, but an isolated storm or
two can still reach severe criteria particularly via wind gusts from
downbursts if the right setup materializes.

In terms of total rainfall potential for today and tomorrow, most
areas are expected to see rainfall of under 1 inch both days, with a
general high-end potential of 1-2", further hinting at very low
potential for flooding across the region and any instance of
flooding would most likely be in an isolated location or two.

High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s due to
abundant cloud cover and rain, with perhaps a slight uptick to the
upper 80s and near 90 across the region on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Thursday will be the transition day to a more typical easterly flow
regime that will persist into the weekend. Some influence from the
passing upper wave and a TUTT off the Atlantic coast shifting
northwards across the northern Florida Peninsula late this week may
continue to result in pockets of heavier rain across the west coast
on Thursday. Otherwise, the subtropical surface high pressure in the
western Atlantic will expand and lead to a more typical summertime
flow pattern for South Florida, resulting in higher PoPs each day
for the Gulf coast and interior sections when compared to the east
coast metro late in the week and through the weekend. Some guidance
is hinting at another mid to upper level low approaching from the
Atlantic side late in the weekend and into early next week, but with
this being at the tail end of the forecast period, there is a large
spread in long range model and ensemble guidance with the low`s
movement and evolution. Therefore, this will just be something we
keep an eye on in the coming days with uncertainty being very high.

Heat will return to being the main threat by the end of the week and
into the weekend, with high temperatures in the low to middle 90s
and heat indices climbing well into the 100s. With easterly low
level setting up flowing around the subtropical high, this will
favor hotter temps on the Gulf side.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible as scattered showers and
thunderstorms begin to return to the TAF sites. These showers and
storms can also bring gusty and erratic winds. Overnight, winds
will become light and variable along with mostly VFR conditions
and a break from the active weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Light winds and low seas will prevail through mid-week. Winds will
then turn solidly southeasterly on Wednesday and may increase to
cautionary levels as the western edge of high pressure becomes
established across the western Atlantic. Showers and storms will be
numerous through mid-week before returning to typical summertime
coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  88  79  89 /  50  70  40  70
West Kendall     74  88  76  89 /  50  70  30  70
Opa-Locka        77  90  79  91 /  50  70  30  70
Homestead        77  88  79  89 /  50  70  40  70
Fort Lauderdale  77  88  79  89 /  50  70  40  70
N Ft Lauderdale  78  88  80  89 /  50  70  30  60
Pembroke Pines   79  91  81  92 /  50  70  30  70
West Palm Beach  77  89  79  89 /  50  70  20  60
Boca Raton       77  90  79  91 /  50  70  30  60
Naples           76  89  77  91 /  60  80  30  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...JS