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000
FXUS62 KMFL 071950
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
250 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

...Wind Advisory Atlantic Coast Tonight...

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Monday...

A mid to upper level trough over the Eastern United States will
continue to move eastward into the Atlantic Waters, as high pressure
builds into the Southeastern United States. This will allow keep the
pressure gradient tight over South Florida, as the breezy to windy
northerly flow becomes more northeasterly. The weather will also
remain dry through Monday.

Lows tonight will be in the 50s over most areas, except around 60
east coast metro areas and mid to upper 40s west of Lake
Okeechobee. Highs on Monday will be in the 70s over most areas
except around 70 east coast metro areas.

.LONG TERM...

Monday Night through Sunday

High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain the primary
weather influencer through the long term period, outside of a weak
shortwave trough pushing through the region during the early portion
of the week with little fanfare. Surface high pressure initially
centered over the Southeast States will shift east to locate over
the central North Atlantic Ocean late in the period while gradually
weakening. Until that time our position along the southern periphery
of the low-level ridge will keep the pressure gradient robust
resulting in breezy winds and hazardous beach and marine conditions.
While generally dry weather is anticipated with high pressure in
control enough low-level moisture persists for periodic low-end
shower chances at times for the Atlantic waters and east coast.
However predictability is low at this juncture so left rain
chances below mentionable levels as suggested by the blended model
guidance. Temperatures should remain seasonal with a gradual
warming trend towards late week. Highs should be in the 70s
through Wednesday with 80s spreading from west to east across the
area towards the weekend. Lows should be mostly in the 60s to
around 70, with some upper 50s possible for the Northern
Everglades/Lake Okeechobee region through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Winds are the primary story out there. Waiting for FLL and MIA to
transition to NNE from NNW this morning...seems to be a bit slower
than forecast guidance suggested earlier, but it appears the
transition is in progress. Gusts up to 20-25knots will be possible
through the afternoon and into the evening. Although the stronger
gusts will subside a bit overnight, gusty conditions may continue
and perhaps increase again by mid-morning on Monday. Otherwise, VFR
expected through the cycle.

&&

.MARINE...

Hazardous marine conditions will continue as high pressure continues
to build into the region. As the high moves in, the pressure
gradient will continue to tighten and remain tight through early
week. A SCA is in effect for all coastal waters, but the worst
conditions will reside over the Atlantic ocean and gulf stream
where swell and wind wave heights build to near 10 feet at times.
Some slow improvement is expected, first with the Gulf, Biscayne
Bay, and Lake Okeechobee waters by Tuesday with perhaps gradual
improvement by midweek for the Atlantic.

&&

.BEACHES...

With a strong northeasterly flow and increasing northeast swell, a
high risk of rip currents can be expected to continue into the
early part of this workweek along the Atlantic coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            60  72  64  75 /  10  10  10  10
West Kendall     58  72  62  77 /  10  10  10  10
Opa-Locka        58  72  62  75 /  10  10  10  10
Homestead        58  71  63  75 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  61  72  64  75 /  10  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  61  71  64  73 /   0  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   58  71  63  75 /  10  10  10  10
West Palm Beach  59  71  63  73 /   0  10  10  10
Boca Raton       61  72  64  74 /   0  10  10   0
Naples           52  73  57  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...BNB/Frye
Monday Night through Sunday...SPM

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