114
FXUS62 KMFL 121137
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
637 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

   - Dense fog will continue through daybreak this morning and be
     possible once again tonight into early Friday morning.

   - A weak front approaches today, with a slight uptick in rain
     chances for areas near Lake Okeechobee.

   - The warming trend continues, with highs each afternoon
     approaching the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 232 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

A slight pattern change approaches today as a disturbance over the
Mississippi Valley slowly pushes a front south along the Florida
peninsula today. This will help push the surface high currently in
place over the western Atlantic further eastward, and surface winds
will shift from the northwest as a prefrontal boundary moves across
the area. The front is forecast to stall out somewhere over central
Florida later today, and eventually wash-out as we head into the
weekend. The front`s presence will support a slight uptick in
rain chances across northernmost portions of CWA near Lake
Okeechobee late this evening, but chances remain in in the 20-30%
at best given fairly meager moisture near the surface and dry air
still occupying the upper levels. Chances quickly petter out as
the front washes out on Friday, with only low-end chances for a
few isolated showers over the local Atlantic waters.

Guidance continues to show a medium chance of patchy fog developing
across the interior of the CWA early this morning. This, in
combination with any lingering smoke from fires, could result in
reduced visibilities; commuters are advised to exercise caution
and keep additional distance between vehicles during the morning
commute.

Temperatures through the period will continue to warm up, with highs
each afternoon in the high 70s and lower 80s, while overnight lows
could dip into the mid 50s across the interior and lower 60s along
the East Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

As we approach the weekend, a much deeper synoptic scale trough is
anticipated to develop and strengthen in the lee of the Rockies
before it sweeps into the Eastern Seaboard. This complex will drag
another front across out region late weekend into early next week.
This will provide more of a large scale forcing mechanism that may
be enough to promote rainfall across much of the region. Some of the
model guidance remains in disagreement regarding the timing of this
solution, with the ENS (ensemble ECMWF) presenting a more
progressive approach, while the GEFS (ensemble GFS) maintains a
slower evolution. The forecast reflects a middle ground of both,
with the front reaching our area late Sunday into Monday. It`s worth
noting that the PoPs have gradually trended upward with each
forecast cycle over the last couple of nights, which is helping
increase our confidence regarding this scenario.

Behind the front, surface high will build over the Eastern Seaboard
and the Florida peninsula, maintaining benign conditions through the
rest of the week.

Daily high temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s to low
80s across the region each day. Similarly, overnight lows each night
will stabilize to being in the 50s across SW Florida and low 60s for
the east coast metro.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Dense FG across inland areas of South Florida this morning with
VFR and light and variable winds prevailing at most coastal
terminals. A late afternoon sea-breeze will push inland at east
coast terminals by 20-22z, veering winds to the southeast while
KAPF remains westerly. Dense fog will be possible once again
across inland areas tonight as winds remain light and variable
after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

A weak frontal boundary will approach the Florida peninsula today,
and stall out as it weakens further on Friday. Winds will shift out
of the northwest as a result, then out of the northeast on Friday. A
few isolated showers could pop up with the frontal approach. Seas
will range from 2-4 ft across the local Atlantic waters, and 2 ft or
less across the Gulf.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 232 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will persist along Palm Beach
county beaches today as swell gradually lessens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  61  79  65 /   0  10  10  10
West Kendall     81  56  80  60 /   0   0  10  10
Opa-Locka        80  60  79  63 /   0  10  10  10
Homestead        80  59  79  63 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  78  61  77  65 /   0  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  79  62  77  65 /   0  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   80  60  79  63 /   0  10  10  10
West Palm Beach  79  60  77  64 /  10  20  10  10
Boca Raton       80  60  78  64 /   0  20  20  10
Naples           75  58  76  59 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-066-
     067-070-071-073.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Hadi