Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 282339
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
739 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

SHRA/TSRA currently in the vicinity of KOPF and KMIA with
improving conditions at terminals north of departing thunderstorm
and shower activity. SHRA/TSRA will gradually wane this evening
with light southeasterly to southerly winds ongoing overnight.
Another round of afternoon SHRA/TSRA possible once again tomorrow
afternoon with short fused amendments and TEMPOs possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 358 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022)

SHORT TERM (This Afternoon through Sunday)...

An active afternoon and evening potentially lies ahead as the
convective focus shifts eastward. The region sits on the edge of
tropical moisture ahead of a frontal boundary with a mid-level
trough pushing over the eastern seaboard of the United States.
The drier air on the backside of the front could attempt to slide
in behind the Gulf sea breeze helping to lower convective chances
over the Gulf and coastal Southwest Florida as the afternoon/evening
continues. Meanwhile with the convective focus shifting east,
eventually it will meet with the pinned Atlantic sea breeze later
this afternoon where strong storms could see some enhancement
thanks to drier air aloft and the boundary interactions. Strong
wind gusts in excess of 45 mph, frequent lightning, and localized
flooding from excessive rainfall.

Convective focus should push into the Atlantic overnight with a
convective lull over the peninsula. There could be some moisture
recovery west and north as the frontal boundary continues to
linger over south central Florida. As the sun rises on Sunday,
diurnal heating will again to lead to the development of showers
and thunderstorms with a peak of activity in the afternoon and
evening, potentially focusing inland and across Southwest
Florida. Temperatures will warm up into the lower 90s across much
of the area with highest heat index values well in the 90s and
approaching 100F over interior areas.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...

As we go through the remainder of the Memorial Day holiday weekend
and into early next week, the mid/upper low pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico is expected to interact and eventually transition
into an elongated E/W trough extending from the central Atlantic
to the Florida peninsula, resembling a Tropical Upper Atmospheric
Trough (TUTT) we typically see in the summer over the subtropical
Atlantic. Models are in fairly good agreement with a closed
mid/upper low forming east of the peninsula on Tuesday, somewhere
around or just north of the northern Bahamas, and lingering
through about Thursday before possibly moving east of the area by
the end of this forecast period. At the surface and low levels,
high pressure over the western Atlantic will bring an increasing
SE wind flow into the area for Memorial Day and Tuesday, acting to
advect in higher moisture into South Florida and leading to a
general increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
While it probably won`t be all-day rain events, there should be
more periods of rainfall each day with daytime PoPs around 80% and
overnight PoPs staying in the 30-40% range. Some of the rainfall
will be heavy with localized flooding being the main potential
hazard. The threat of heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding could
increase Monday and Tuesday if a low level trough or weak surface
low pressure develops near the east coast as per the ECMWF
solution.

Some drier air on the west side of the mid/upper low will try to
filter into Florida Wednesday and Thursday, and the amount of
drying will likely depend on the location of the weak surface
low pressure to the east. Closer solutions such as the ECMWF would
keep higher moisture and rain chances over all of South Florida,
while the farther east GFS would keep the deeper moisture just
offshore. For now we have PoPs trending back down to near climo
(40-50%) for Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, consensus of the
global models show the mid/upper low moving well east of Florida
which gradually opens the door for an influx of deep tropical
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. This trend has
been fairly consistent over the past couple of days, so if this
continues then the heavy rain/flood threat could be something to
keep a close eye on as the week progresses.

Temperatures for most of the long term period will be near normal,
with highs in the 80s to around 90 and lows in the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Some bouts of sub-VFR are possible through the period due to showers
and storms. Highest storm chances are this afternoon and evening
inland of the terminals but some activity may approach the terminals
which could lead to brief bouts of IFR/LIFR. Short-fused AMDs
likely. Convection will diminish around the terminals overnight
before returning on Sunday.

MARINE...

Southerly winds will generally prevail from through the weekend
before turning easterly through next week. Winds and seas will
remain relatively low over the coming days. Showers and
thunderstorms will become more numerous by the end of the weekend
through early next week, especially across the Atlantic waters.

BEACHES...

The high risk for rip currents continues along the Atlantic coast
through the remainder of today as surf continues to subside and a
moderate longshore current is possible. By Sunday, winds and surf
will have subsided enough to lower the threat to a moderate risk
through the remainder of the holiday weekend. The Atlantic rip
current risk may build again as the week continues, especially for
the northern Palm Beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  89  76  86 /  40  60  50  80
West Kendall     73  89  72  87 /  40  70  50  80
Opa-Locka        74  89  74  86 /  40  60  50  80
Homestead        74  88  73  86 /  30  60  50  80
Fort Lauderdale  75  88  75  86 /  40  60  50  80
N Ft Lauderdale  74  88  75  86 /  50  60  50  80
Pembroke Pines   74  89  74  87 /  40  60  50  80
West Palm Beach  72  88  73  87 /  50  50  40  80
Boca Raton       74  89  74  86 /  50  60  50  80
Naples           75  89  74  89 /  20  50  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Update/Aviation...Hadi
Tonight/Sunday and Marine...RAG
Sunday Night through Saturday...Molleda

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