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000
FXUS62 KMFL 160727
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
327 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Latest surface and upper level analysis shows strong ridge of high
pressure across the region from surface to mid levels with GOES16
water vapor loops/channels showing upper level low just north of
Hispaniola and a tropical wave around the lesser antilles and
another stronger tropical wave approaching 50W or so. In association
with the ridge across the region, blended gpsmet/ssmi/amsu total
precipitable water (TPW) satellite product shows values running 20%
below normal to the southeast and east of the region which is headed
our way over next couple of days.

.TODAY AND FRIDAY...North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
as well as GFE Ensembles (GEFS) derived standard anomalies for low
and mid level heights in association with the aforementioned ridge
are running in excess of 2.0 through the period while TPW values
hover from around normal to as low as 20-30% below at times. With
ridge axis remaining to our north and no other notable features,
expect afternoon and evening convection favoring interior and west
coast, and overnight along east coast, with rain chances around or
below normal. The strength of the ridge should limit potential
for strong storms while at the same time resulting in temperatures
running above normal with widespread heat indices of 100-105 and
few areas (particularly out west) exceeding 105 not out of the
question.

.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Consensus of the guidance continues
to indicate low to mid level ridge will continue in control of the
weather across the region but with low level ridge moving back out
east farther into the Atlantic to what is more typical this time of
the year temperatures should be closer to normal. Precipitable water
values should hover around normal with with weaker ridge resulting
also in weaker steering flow even though axis remains slightly north
of the region. This all favors best rain chances across interior and
west coast but still better along east coast than today and
tomorrow. None of the aforementioned tropical waves in the analysis
at the top seem to have much of an influence in the local weather
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...East to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots across
Atlantic and Gulf waters should prevail through next two days and
then weaken to 5 to 10 kts over the weekend and into the early
part of next week as low level ridge weakens. Seas should be
around 2 ft next couple of days and less than that as the weekend
progresses and as we move into early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...There might be periods when rip current risk is
moderate along east coast today and tomorrow around sunrise and
sunset (low tide) but outside of that it should remain low. Then
as we move into the weekend and next week lighter wind regime
should keep area under a low risk of rip currents across the
board.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  92  80  92  80 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  91  81  91  81 /  20  20  20  20
Miami            92  81  92  80 /  20  20  20  20
Naples           94  75  93  76 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...52/PS