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000
FXUS62 KMFL 281728
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
128 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.Aviation...
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some
patchy fog will once again be possible across the interior overnight
tonight into tomorrow morning, but confidence of any fog reaching
the taf sites is low.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 915 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020/

Update...
Quiet day in store with hot and dry conditions expected again this
afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to range from the mid
80s along the East Coast to the mid 90s across portions of the
interior this afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible again across
the interior overnight tonight.


Prev Discussion... /issued 301 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020/

Discussion...

Short Term (Today through Sunday Night):

Warm temperatures with generally dry conditions are the story
through the weekend across South Florida. Morning fog will
continue to be possible, particularly inland where the wind is
more likely to decouple. Surface high pressure over the Atlantic
and a mid-level high pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico and
Yucatan peninsula are the major synoptic features in play for the
weekend. Rain chances should remain minimal with any sea breeze
boundaries that form serving as potential focuses for any
convection.

The relative lack of cloud cover will allow warm temperatures this
weekend with much of the area reaching into the upper 80s and lower
90s. Portions of the interior will reach into the mid 90s with the
potential for some maximum temperature records to be threatened,
particularly at APF which has a record of 91 today and 90 on Sunday.
The easterly to southeasterly flow will allow the airmass to warm as
it travels across the peninsula towards Southwest Florida. Portions
of Southeast Florida could also see warm temperatures with those
areas away from the Atlantic, like the western suburbs, most likely
to climb into the 90s.

Long Term (Monday through Friday):

Models continue to depict a sfc ridge and high pressure aloft across
SoFlo on Tuesday. However, winds at the sfc will be veering to the
south at that time as the ridge will be migrating eastward and the
high pressure aloft will be eroding due to an approaching
trough/low complex over the E CONUS.

Latest model solutions seem in little better agreement regarding the
timing and overall impacts from the frontal boundary associated with
the aforementioned trough/low complex. Wednesday seems like the
consensus for SoFlo to experience the bulk of the rain, along with
slight chances for thunderstorms. The best upper level dynamic
support should remain well to the north of SoFlo, so the main
impacts should be limited to showers, and maybe a few storms. POPs
remain in the 30% range Wednesday afternoon through the late evening
hours, with the FROPA basically over by Thursday mid morning. This
timing could be adjusted as new model runs become available, but
attm there is no compelling reason to deviate from the ongoing
forecast philosophy.

Winds turn W/NW on Thursday and eventually N by Friday behind the
FROPA with another round of drier and stable air settling across the
area.

Temperatures will remain warm on Tuesday with afternoon highs in the
mid-upper 80s to low 90s. Then a cooling trend begins on Wednesday
behind the FROPA with afternoon highs remaining in the low-mid 80s
by the end of the long term.

Marine...
Northeasterly Atlantic swell will push into the local waters this
weekend possibly producing 4 to 6 foot seas in and around the
Gulfstream. Easterly wind surges could also bring bouts of
cautionary conditions to the Atlantic and Lake Okeechobee waters at
times. Seas should diminish heading into early next week as the
swell dissipates.

Beach Forecast...
The threat of rip currents will be high along the Atlantic beaches
today and likely remain elevated through the weekend into the early
portions of the next work week.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  70  86  69  85 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  73  85  72  84 /   0   0  10   0
Miami            72  87  72  85 /   0   0  10   0
Naples           67  88  68  87 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&



Aviation...32/MM