117
FXUS66 KMFR 071908
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1108 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026

Updated AVIATION section

.DISCUSSION.../Issued 648 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026/ The main update
was to issue a Wind Advisory /PDXNPWMFR/ for far eastern Klamath
County and Lake County from 9 AM PST Sunday through 5 PM PST
Sunday. This hazard is for gusty south to southwest winds which
should peak at 50 to 55 mph during Sunday afternoon from Valley
Falls to Silver Lake.

First, most of our area will have thickening mid and high level
clouds with a few to several degrees of cooling today. But, rain
will spread to the coast this afternoon. It will then develop
across southwest Oregon tonight, including the Rogue Valley toward
sunrise on Sunday. Precipitation is expected across all of the
area Sunday into Sunday night with snow levels falling from around
8000 feet to around 5000 feet, locally to 4500 feet north of both
Crater Lake and Chiloquin. Precipitation amounts through Sunday
night will have a wide range across our area with around 2 to 3
inches at the coast, around an inch for most of Douglas, Josephine,
and western Siskiyou counties, and a tenth to a half inch for the
Rogue Valley, Shasta Valley, and east of the Cascades.

Seasonably colder temperatures will persist next week. Models are
trending toward better agreement that the next frontal system
will move into northern California on Tuesday into Tuesday night
with light (to possibly moderate at around a half inch)
precipitation and snow levels around 4500 to 5000 feet.

A break follows Wednesday into Thursday, then a return to active
weather begins on Friday with a broad, cold upper level trough
tracking southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska. Snow levels look
to be around 4000 to 4500 feet with a relatively weak front on
Friday. The track of the colder core of the trough has a wide
range of solutions, possibly affecting our area on Saturday,
holding off until Sunday/Day 8, or even remaining offshore far
enough such that the eventual main impacts will be south of our
area. The mean ensemble solution would indicate snow levels of
around 2000 to 3000 feet with light precipitation next Sunday.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z TAFs...The low clouds have cleared out and now
we`re watching some light showers along the coast with some of these
showers making it farther inland with Roseburg(KRBG) reporting 0.01
inches earlier. Generally, the chance of showers will increase,
although VFR conditions will likely prevail as periods of IFR
conditions occur under the heavier showers.

Wind shear also remains a concern near KOTH this afternoon as winds
around 2000 feet are around 40 knots with some weaker surface winds.
We included LLWS in the North Bend(KOTH) TAF through most of the day.

We`ll see more IFR conditions once the front and low move onshore,
which will happen later this evening into the overnight hours.

-Smith

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PST Saturday, February 7, 2026...A cold
front will produce rain with gusty south winds and steep seas
through Sunday, except very steep seas north of Cape Blanco today.
Also, rainfall will bring lower visibilities. Active weather eases
on Monday morning. But, elevated seas are likely to linger through
Tuesday. Improving conditions are likely for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 5 PM PST Sunday for ORZ030-031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-
     370.

&&

$$