Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 101206
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
506 AM PDT Sat Apr 10 2021

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

.DISCUSSION...10/00Z NAM/GFS/EC in.

A weak front is now moving onshore. So far, it is a dry one, even
on the coast. Any precipitation with the front will be very
light...0.10 inches or less, and limited to the coast, Coast
Range, and the Umpqua Basin up to the Cascade crest. The upper
trough supporting this front is also moving onshore at this time,
with most of the energy well north of the Medford forecast area.

Behind the front, gusty north winds will develop along the coast
this afternoon and evening with gusty northwest winds inland,
especially from the Cascades east. Any lingering precipitation
will end Saturday afternoon. It will be cooler, and afternoon
highs today will be around 5 to 10 degrees below normal,
especially west of the Cascades.

Flow aloft will turn northwesterly later tonight as a long wave
ridge moves into place offshore. A thermal trough will develop
near the coast and low level northeast to east flow will develop.
Areas that don`t already have clear skies will get them Saturday
night, and winds will become gusty over the ridges. Sunday morning
will be quite cold in the valleys with low temperatures 5 to 10
degrees below normal. Frost/freeze conditions are expected for
many west side valleys. A Freeze Warning is now in effect for
west side valleys where agricultural interests are now sensitive
to freezing temperatures. A Frost Advisory is in effect for
coastal areas. See NPWMFR for details.

Humidity recoveries will be moderate over the west side ridges
beginning Sunday night, and will remain that way for the next
several nights. Minimum humidities will also be quite low,
approaching typical mid-summer values from Sunday on, although
with more spring like temperatures.

A dry "inside slider" short wave will dig into the area Monday
night into Tuesday. This low is not expected to bring any
precipitation to the area, but it will bring strong north winds,
particularly to areas east of the Cascades. This, combined with
very low humidities, will create fire weather concerns for the
area.

The inside slider will stall south of the area and weaken
Wednesday, but it looks like there will be a weaker trough over
the Pacific Northwest through the remainder of the week. After
another round of winds Wednesday, the area will settle into a mild
and breezy pattern with continuing low humidities during the day
and moderate recoveries at night over most of the inland areas.

The 8 to 14 day outlook for April 17-23 calls for greater chances
of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 10/12Z TAF Cycle...The latest satellite imagery
that allows us to depict low clouds shows just that in portions of
the Coquille and Umpqua Basin and in the last hour have developed in
portions of the Illinois Valley, and south and east end of the Rogue
Valley. This is due to a weak front that is bringing increased
onshore flow. MVFR ceilings are expected along the coast from Cape
Blanco north and Umpqua Divide north this morning. At Roseburg,
ceilings are not expected to lower until around 15z, but there`s a
chance it could lower an hour earlier than whats indicated in the
TAF. We`ll continue to monitor.

Meanwhile the lower cloud deck will result in the higher terrain
becoming partly obscured, especially in the south and east end of
the Rogue Valley, but Medford should remain VFR.

Conditions will improve to VFR in the above mentioned areas this
afternoon with gusty winds along the coast, including North Bend. It
will be windy at Roseburg and Medford this afternoon, but winds are
not expected to be strong.


East of the Cascades, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF
period with gusty winds in the afternoon and early evening,
including Klamath Falls. -Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Saturday, 10 Apr 2021...A weak cold
front will move the waters this morning. In it`s wake will be
increasing north winds as a thermal trough redevelops in northern
California.

Winds will strengthen and seas will increase for all areas on
Saturday with Small Craft conditions starting late Saturday for most
areas. Gale force north winds are likely to develop south of Port
Orford on Sunday, and continue into Monday evening and a Gale Watch
has been upgraded to a Gale warning for this area. Elsewhere winds
won`t be as strong, but seas will be very steep and wind driven and
a Hazardous Seas warning has been issues, the exception is within 5
nm from shore between Denmark and Coos Bay where small craft
conditions will persist.

Winds are expected to gradually diminish Monday night into Tuesday,
but small craft conditions are likely once the gales and hazardous
seas conditions end. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Freeze Warning from 2 AM PDT until 9 AM PDT Sunday for
        ORZ023-024-026.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM PDT until 9 AM PDT Sunday for
        ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this
        morning to 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Gale Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for
        PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday
        for PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/10


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