027
FXUS66 KMFR 270308
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
808 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.DISCUSSION...Updates were made to the forecast for this evening
into Saturday. The main updates were to adjust the weather to
account for the areas impacted by the smoke, and the other was to
make adjustments to pops for later tonight and Saturday afternoon
and evening to add a slight chance of thunderstorms. A weak upper
low is moving into northern Cal and it`sd starting to take on a
negative tilt. This has raised concerns for isolated thunderstorms
later tonight. Current data suggest instability is marginal and
mid level moisture is lacking. So we`ll go with a low end chance
(10%) chance of storms in eastern Modoc and southeast Lake and
Klamath counties late tonight.

The aforementioned upper low will move towards Modoc County
Saturday morning and over Modoc County Saturday afternoon. Mid
level moisture, instability and trigger should be sufficient
enough for isolated storms to develop in eastern Modoc and
portions of Klamath and Lake County mid to late Saturday afternoon
and evening. The only thing that could keep a cap on storm
development will be the extent of the smoke from the Park Fire
southwest of our forecast area. This will be passed on to the
night shift and we`ll let them evaluate this further. -Petrucelli


&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR marine stratus/fog at North Bend
is expected to return this evening and overnight, especially to
areas north of Cape Blanco and from Brookings southward. These low
clouds will clear to VFR in the late morning and early afternoon.
Inland, expect VFR with areas of MVFR visibilities in smoke downwind
of area fires.

Areas of smoke are expected in the afternoons and evenings at Grants
Pass, Medford and Lake view.  One area where persistent smoke may be
a problem is in southeast Siskiyou and southern Modoc Counties,
where smoke models indicate visibility could remain at or below 3
miles due to smoke from the Park Fire. -CC


&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM Friday, July 26, 2024...A thermal trough
will remain in place through Saturday evening with north winds and
steep to very steep seas, highest from Gold Beach southward.  Winds
trend slightly lower tonight into Saturday, but steep seas linger,
especially south of Cape Blanco. The thermal trough will weaken with
winds and seas gradually diminishing Saturday night as a weak front
brings south winds Monday into Tuesday. Calmer conditions are
expected Sunday into early next week. -Miles/CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT
     Saturday for PZZ350-370.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-
     376.

&&

$$