Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 270155
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
855 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 230 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020)

Tonight and Tuesday:

Low clouds have slowly scattered out today, but much of the area
has seen high clouds continue to lift northeast. These high clouds
have limited heating somewhat, with afternoon temperatures area-
wide in the 30s. Tonight, some clearing is expected with winds
decreasing in speed. This will promote a cold night across the
area with lows in the 20s.

Tuesday, expect to see ample sunshine as drier air advects into the
region from the west. It will still be a chilly day, with highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s and breezy west winds.

Ritzman

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 230 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020)

Tuesday night through Monday:

Zonal flow looks to persist through mid-week, with split flow
upstream of the region as cutoff energy spins across the Southern
Rockies and shortwave energy digs south across the Northern Plains
and Upper Great Lakes. This pattern will keep quiet conditions
across the area as high pressure tracks east across the Mid-
Mississippi Vally through Wednesday. To our north, the shortwave
tracking east across central Canada will allow the pressure
gradient to increase late Tuesday night through Wednesday,
resulting in gusty southwest winds developing. With the system
expected to remain well north of the area, no precipitation is
expected across central and southern Wisconsin. Temperatures will
be a gradual rebound, but are expected to remain below normal for
this time of year through mid-week.

Wednesday night through Thursday night, we remain under split mid-
level flow as another shortwave digs south across the Upper Great
Lakes and the cutoff low moves east over the Lower and Mid-
Mississippi Valley, pulling in the remnants of Hurricane Zeta.
Medium range models keep the cutoff low and precipitation
associated with the system just south of our area as high pressure
tracks just north of the area. NBM PoPs and WPC QPF came in quite
a bit less aggressive, which matches well with model trends
keeping precipitation south on Thursday. As the pressure gradient
increases across the area between the surface low passing to our
south and high pressure to our north, expect a period of gusty
northeast winds Thursday, becoming north-northeast Thursday night
and weakening as high pressure moves in from the west.

Friday through the upcoming weekend, high pressure keeps the weather
quiet Friday ahead of another low pressure system expected to track
east across Ontario late in the weekend. This will promote gusty
southwest winds and warmer conditions for Saturday. A trailing
cold front looks to swing through Wisconsin Saturday night into
Sunday, but the better lift and moisture continues to stay north
of the region.

Ritzman

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 855 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020)

Mid level cloud cover will continue across the area for much of
tonight, with some lower clouds mixed in, especially further to
the north and west. VFR is expected to prevail at all sites,
however. North winds will become light and variable overnight,
before becoming more westerly to southwesterly by mid day
Tuesday.

Clouds are expected to clear Tuesday afternoon, with clear skies
going into Tuesday night.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 855 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020)

Relatively light winds are expected over the lake tonight and for
the first half of the day on Tuesday. Winds will start to increase
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, with southwest gales
developing across the northern third of the open waters Tuesday
evening, continuing into Wednesday morning. For the nearshore, a
Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning, with southwest winds gusting to around 25
knots.

Once the gales subside on Wednesday, generally quiet weather is
expected for for the remainder of Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Low pressure across the southern US may result in a period of
gusty north winds on Thursday.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...10 PM Tuesday to 10
     AM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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