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000
FXUS63 KMKX 232040
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
340 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 339 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023)

Tonight through Sunday night:

A slow moving low pressure system well to the west will gradually
move towards the area through early this week. Deeper moisture has
pulled away to the west today, but will move back into the area
tonight into Sunday. Precipitable water values of 1-1.25 inches
will then hang around through mid-week. The system to the west
will provide enough lift for rounds later tonight into mid-week.
Went highest precip chances in the west tonight into Sunday given
the combination of the deeper moisture and better lift from warm
air and moisture advection. Could be a few rumbles of thunder
tomorrow as well given some weak instability. High temps tomorrow
will be back down near normal values given clouds and shower
chances.

Looks like a solid moderate swim risk tonight into Sunday, which
may get bumped up to a high risk for a period of time if
winds/waves end up a touch higher than expected.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 339 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023)

Monday through Saturday:

After lower precip chances Sunday night into early Monday,
stronger forcing should bring higher chances for showers later
Monday through Tuesday, as the low draws closer. The low will
weaken as it gradually pulls away to the east Wednesday into
Thursday, with some shower chances hanging around through at least
Wednesday. Temps are expected to remain within a few degrees of
normal through mid-week.

Dry weather is expected late week into the weekend under the
influence of high pressure parked over the northeast U.S. Temps
should gradually warm through this period with an upper ridge
building into the area as well.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 339 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023)

Dry weather will persist into this evening, with shower chances
gradually returning west to east later tonight into Sunday. Could
be a few rumbles of thunder on Sunday as well. VFR conditions are
expected tonight into Sunday, outside of lower visibilities in
more moderate showers.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 339 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023)

Low pressure well to the west will lift northward into southeast
North Dakota by Sunday morning. The low will then gradually weaken
and drop southeast to around the Minnesota/Iowa border by Tuesday
morning. This pattern will result in persistent moderate
southeast to east winds Sunday through mid-week. The winds and
waves look high enough for a Small Craft Advisory late this
evening into early Sunday afternoon.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 PM
     Saturday to 1 PM Sunday.

&&

$$

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