Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 081940
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
140 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 140 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021)

Tonight through Tuesday:

A spectacular early spring afternoon is underway across the
region, with afternoon temperatures ranging from the low to mid
50s to around 60 under sunny skies. Winds will remain light from
the west through the remainder of the day.

A mid and upper level cloud deck currently evident on satellite
imagery over central Iowa and Minnesota will push into the area
tonight. We could see some patchy fog development in a few
locations overnight, but south winds will begin to strengthen
toward morning, which should limit that potential. Lows will be
mild, with mid 30s expected.

Tuesday will be warm and breezy, with temperatures reaching the
low 60s. South winds will be gusty, with 20-30 MPH gusts during
the afternoon, especially across the western half of the forecast
area.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 140 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021)

Tuesday Night through Monday:

Cloud cover will increase Tuesday night as moisture advects north
into the region. Some combination of fog and/or stratus seems
probable. Increased lift and deeper moisture will arrive late
Tuesday night with a leading shortwave. Think we will likely see
some drizzle/showery precipitation develop early Wednesday
morning with that wave. We may actually then see a lull in the
rain for part of the day on Wednesday, before the cold front
arrives from the west Wednesday night. Will continue to carry
limited thunder chances, especially Wednesday evening, but there
has been a downward trend in instability over the last couple of
days, so the thunder potential does seem increasingly
questionable.

With the decrease in instability and the potential for a lull in
precip during part of the day Wednesday, QPF amounts have also
decreased to closer to a half inch. Could certainly see some
higher amounts if/where any thundestorms develop, but overall it
looks like rainfall amounts won`t be significant enough to cause
any major flood concerns.

The front will slide southeast Wednesday night, and very slowly
continue to the southeast on Thursday. We will likely see some
continued post frontal precipitation during the day on Thursday,
with showers ending very slowly from northwest to southeast.

Friday continues to look dry and fairly pleasant, with highs in
the upper 40s to around 50.

The next chances for precip look to arrive with what will likely
be a closed low moving across the central US late in the weekend
or early next week. LOTS of uncertainty with both timing and
precip intensity and type at this point, but overall the pattern
looks fairly active heading into the middle of the month.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 140 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021)

Clear skies and light west winds will continue into this evening.
Mid and high level clouds will start to move in tonight, and we
could also see some patchy ground fog develop in a few areas. This
potential doesn`t look very widespread, but any fog that does
develop will likely result in IFR visibilities.

Winds will turn southerly for Tuesday, becoming fairly gusty by
afternoon, with gusts into the 20 to 25 kt range at times. VFR is
expected through the day.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 140 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021)

Winds will turn southerly over the lake tonight, and increase
during the day on Tuesday. The stronger winds will be over the
northern half of the lake, where gusts to around 30 knots are
possible over the open waters. Waves may build enough to require a
Small Craft Advisory by tomorrow evening for portions of the
nearshore waters.

Gusty winds will continue into Wednesday, with a few gale force
gusts looking possible over the open waters, though this should
not at all be widespread. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed Wednesday and Wednesday night for winds and waves across
the nearshore waters.

In addition to the wind concerns, higher dewpoints will move over
the cold lake waters starting Tuesday night, likely resulting in
areas of fog at times. The fog threat will continue until a cold
front passes through the lake Wednesday night into Thursday.

Winds will become northwesterly behind the front for Thursday and
Friday.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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