Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
345 FXUS63 KMKX 172107 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 307 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Gale Warning is in effect for the open waters of Lake Michigan into early evening for wind gusts to 40 knots. - An Arctic cold front will cross southern Wisconsin this evening, allowing a frigid air mass to begin working into the region. - The arctic air remains entrenched over southern Wisconsin from this weekend into early next week. Cold weather headlines will likely be needed, particularly during the Sunday through Tuesday night time frame. - Temperatures climb back toward normal later next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 307 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Tonight through Saturday night: A cold front is expected to sweep through the forecast area this evening. Models soundings show increased saturation along and just behind the cold front, but there is still a signal of a lot of dry air below 10 kft. Kept a mention of flurries going in case some snow survives the dry later. Temperatures will drop behind the front tonight under breezy northwest winds, with temps not warming much Saturday as cold advection aloft persists. With highs only in the teens tomorrow, wind chills are not expected to rise much above 5 degrees. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 307 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Saturday night through Friday: Temperatures aloft will continue to crash Saturday night into early next week as a reinforcing shot of cold air moves through. Subzero wind chills are expected from Saturday evening through Wednesday morning. The coldest period will be Sunday through Tuesday, when wind chills may struggle to get above -15 to -20 during the day, and will drop to -20 to -30 at night. Cold weather headlines will likely be needed for this coldest period. Temperatures will begin to recover on Wednesday, approaching normal values by the end of the week. Dry weather is expected through the middle of next week, with models hinting at a chance for light snow by Thursday as a shortwave moves through. Kept the forecast dry for now given a continued low level of confidence this far out in the forecast. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 307 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Gusty southwest winds will continue through late this afternoon, before easing a bit early this evening. A cold front will move through this evening, bringing a shift in the winds from southwest to northwest. There could be flurries along/behind the front, but most places will likely remain dry. Winds will pick up a bit behind the front overnight into at least early Saturday, with gusts to at least 25 knots likely. There may be a period of MVFR ceilings behind the front tonight into early Saturday, with clearing skies then expected for the remainder of Saturday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 307 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Gale force winds will continue into early evening across the open waters, as high pressure centered over North Carolina departs east and low pressure moves east through southwest Ontario. The low to the north will drag a cold front through this evening, with winds becoming northwest behind the front while dropping below gale force by mid-evening. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Saturday afternoon. Breezy northwest to west winds will then continue through the first part of next week and will combine with a much colder airmass for a period of freezing spray. Heavy freezing spray is mostly likely across the eastern two-thirds of the lake Sunday into early Wednesday. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 9 PM Friday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 5 PM Saturday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee