Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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850
FXUS63 KMKX 160147
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
847 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

.UPDATE...
(Issued 846 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021)

Scattered thunder over eastern IA and southeast MN continues to
weaken as it pushes into much more stable air mass across
southwest WI. Removed thunder for the night. Bulk of showers
pushing off to the east, but can`t rule out a few more showers
redeveloping as last vestiges of mid-level short wave rotate
through. Introduced fog for overnight as low levels remain very
moist and expect boundary layer winds to diminish to less than 5
kts later tonight into Sunday morning. Overnight temperatures may
need to be tweaked lower in spots.

Kavinsky

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 227 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021)

Tonight and Sunday:

More light and scattered rain showers are expected this afternoon
and evening. These showers are expected to diminish as the
shortwave exits to the east of Wisconsin this later this evening.
Drier air and quiet weather is expected on Sunday as a ridge
builds into the area. Winds will shift to easterly under the more
anticyclonic regime Sunday. Warmer temperatures are expected on
Sunday with highs in the low 70s expected across much of southern
Wisconsin. Areas near the lakeshore will be slightly cooler with
the onshore flow.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 227 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021)

Sunday night through Saturday:

The ridge and drier easterly flow is expected to continue through
Monday night. A frontal boundary across the Ohio River Valley will
bring some showers to areas south of Wisconsin. Due to the drier
air over southern Wisconsin, showers should remain well to the
south of the state. This frontal boundary will gradually move
north on Tuesday as an upper level low moves across the western
CONUS. This will set up southerly flow and increased warm
air/moisture advection from the gulf. This will bring a chance for
some scattered showers through the end of the week. Under this
warmer regime with more moisture there will be a chance for a few
rumbles of thunder throughout this period as well.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 846 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021)

Bulk of the showers should continue to move off to the east late
this morning, but can`t rule out a few showers redeveloping
through 06Z or so as lingering weak mid-level short wave moves
through. Widespread MVFR and lower ceilings may begin to break up
a bit, especially in the western areas as slightly drier air in
the low levels pushes in from the west. However, very moist low
level air already in place so any clearing may result in fog or
development, again especially in the west. With the diminishing
winds, wl remain more pessimistic with lower ceilings at most TAF
sites into Sunday morning.

Kavinsky

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 227 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021)

Southerly winds of less than 20 knots are expected to continue
through Sunday before becoming more easterly across the southern
half of the lake Sunday night. High pressure will move back in
across the lake and remain the dominate feature into early next
week.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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