Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 061122
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
622 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

.UPDATE...

As expected southern WI remained dry this morning as any showers
associated with the shortwave trough stayed to west-southwest of
our area. Otherwise, the current forecast remains on track with
quiet and dry conditions expected through Friday as the surface
high slowly shifts east and mid-level ridging builds into the
Upper Midwest through this afternoon/evening. A gradual warming
trend with higher humidity is expected for this weekend as
southerly flow persists.


&&

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

The few high and mid-level clouds from earlier this morning are
gradually clearing out. Still seeing a brief period of patchy
ground fog around some of the southeastern WI terminals, but it
will diminish over the next hour or so with daybreak. Otherwise,
high pressure will continue to slowly push east and upper level
ridging is progged to build into the region later today,
resulting in continued VFR conditions with light southerly winds
through the end of the period. Also expecting another southeast
lake breeze to develop and push inland through the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 307 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020)

SHORT TERM...

Today through Friday...Forecast Confidence is High...

Just another cool start to today, but closer to normal with temps in
the upper 50s to low 60s. A shortwave trough is dipping across MN/IA
this morning and bringing some mid-level clouds to southwestern
portions of WI. However, not much in the way of impacts are expected
to southern WI from this weakening wave as it pushes east over
WI/IL. Could maybe see a brief light shower or sprinkle clip our
southwestern areas, but given a very shallow layer of moisture, will
more than likely remain dry across the CWA this morning.

Otherwise, quiet and dry conditions are expected today and Friday as
a surface high slowly slides east into the eastern Great Lakes and
mid-level ridging begins to build into the Upper Midwest this
afternoon. Looking at a gradual warm up over the next few days as
southerly flow increases. Today`s high temps are progged to climb
into the upper 70s, while highs on Friday look to creep into the low
80s. Additionally, a lake breeze is expected to develop each
afternoon and push inland shifting winds and cooling areas closer to
lake a bit.

LONG TERM...

Friday Night through Sunday...Forecast Confidence Medium...

Warm and moist flow will overspread the area Friday night into
Saturday, as the surface ridge shifts east into the Mid Atlantic.
Temperatures and dewpoints will be noticeably higher for Saturday
and Sunday, with low to mid 80s expected for highs Saturday, and
mid to upper 80s on Sunday. Dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and
low 70s, making for muggy conditions.

Despite what will be a relatively unstable airmass, thunderstorm
chances remain uncertain during this time. Forcing is rather
nebulous through the weekend, and forecast soundings suggest a
ratter stout cap in place across the region. Given those factors,
it appears that any rain chances will be largely dependent on MCS
activity to our northwest--either in the form of decaying
convection, or a MCV moving into the region. For now have slight
chance to chance PoPs Saturday and Sunday, but that could end up
on the high side. Even if showers/storms are around, it seems
pretty safe to say that the weekend will not be a washout by any
means.

Sunday Night through Wednesday...Forecast Confidence Medium...

A more organized upper level wave and surface front will arrive in
the area from the northwest sometime between Sunday night and
Monday afternoon. The more organized forcing will bring better
chances for rain during this time.

The combination of rain chances and the passage of the front
should knock temps back a few degrees for the early to middle
portion of next workweek, with highs around 80 looking most likely
at this time.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

A few high and mid-level clouds are working their way across
southern WI this morning with calm to light winds. May see a brief
period of patchy ground fog across portions of southeastern
WI, but should not impact terminals a great deal this morning.
Otherwise, high pressure slowly pushes east and upper level
ridging builds into the region today, resulting in VFR conditions
with light southerly winds through the end of the period. Also
expecting another southeast lake breeze to develop again and push
inland through the afternoon.

MARINE...

High pressure continues to slowly progress across the southern
portion of Lake Michigan today and will eventually move east into
Lake Erie Friday into Saturday. Light south to southwest winds
are expected across the Lake today and tonight before increasing
through the day on Friday. The persistent southerly winds will
become more breezy over the weekend as the pressure gradient
increases and warmer and more humid air moves into the region.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Wagner
Today/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Wagner
Friday Night THROUGH Wednesday...Boxell


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