Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 231950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
250 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

(Issued 250 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022)

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Extensive CU field will show some dissipation trends into the
evening hours. However plenty of mid/high clouds streaming in from
Iowa. High pressure will largely remain in control through Tuesday.
This will result in a continuation of on onshore wind. Winds
likely to increase Tuesday night as pressure gradient tightens up.
best chance of rain moving into the area would be after midnight
and mainly in parts of SC WI.


(Issued 250 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022)

Wednesday through Monday:

The better forcing and deeper moisture will arrive in southern WI
as the surface low gets into southeast IA and western IL Wednesday
morning. The brunt of the precip will arrive after 12Z, but timing
is still uncertain. The low is expected to slide northward through
central WI Wed. This will push the warm front through our area
and we should see a period of showers and thunderstorms. The
elevated instability with the front will be weak so no severe
storms are anticipated. Far southeast WI could briefly get into
the warm sector Wed afternoon and evening, so we will continue to
watch for any storm potential. The blend of models suggests
around an inch of rain is possible for all of southern WI.

By Wednesday night, drier air will wrap into our area and diminish
our precip chances. We could see lingering clouds from this system
through Thursday afternoon, along with a chance for scattered
showers, due to steep low level lapse rates with the upper trough
slow to exit.

Speaking of slow to exit, the latest operational GFS now has the
upper trough morph into a closed upper low over MO on Thu and
slowly tracks it across IL and the Ohio River Valley Fri- Sun.
This is a big change from yesterday and it shares at least a third
of the ensemble member solutions, but it is still an outlier
solution. The ECMWF (and the Canadian) does the opposite and
keeps that upper trough progressive and moves it well out of our
area by Friday night. What does this mean for our weather? If
ridging moves in Fri as the ECMWF suggests, then we will be warm
Friday through the holiday weekend. We would be dry Fri and then
have a brief chance of showers Sat with a weak shortwave. If the
closed upper low sets up to our south as the GFS suggests, then we
could be cool and cloudy with rain chances Fri and Sat.

For Sunday and beyond, an upper trough will develop over the
northern Plains. The trough may sit there through the middle of
next week and keep us warm and dry, or it may make eastward
progress and bring chances for showers and storms around Tuesday.



(Issued 250 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022)

VFR CU field should show some dissipation trends as the evening
wears along. Onshore flow will continue this period. A considerable
shield of mid and high level clouds across Iowa will be working
in across the area as well. Outside of the CU field most moisture
this period will be at or above 600 millibars per Bufkit soundings.


(Issued 250 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022)

A continuation of the onshore flow is expected this period as high
pressure slowly retreats. The pressure gradient will tighten up
Tuesday night especially across the southern 1/3 of the lake or
so. This will strengthen the onshore wind. As low pressure rides
up and through the Upper Midwest Wednesday the 925 wind max prog
suggests some windier conditions will affect much of the lake. At
this point a small craft advisory looks like it may be needed for
Tuesday night into possibly Wednesday evening.




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