Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 221445
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
945 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

.UPDATE...

Satellite imagery showed a broad swath of strato-cu from central
to northern WI. A shortwave moving through the region should be
able to keep these clouds around and temps on the cooler side with
highs staying the low to mid 70s. No major changes are needed at
this time.

&&

.MARINE...

North to northeast gusts to 20 knots are possible across Lake
Michigan today. This will allow some waves of 2 to 4 feet to build
along the nearshore and 3 to 5 feet over the southern half of the
open waters.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 550 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019)

UPDATE...

No changes to the forecast at this time.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

VFR will prevail today. A sct to broken stratocu deck should form
by mid to late morning, continuing into the afternoon. This will
be based between 4 and 5kft. A few sprinkles aren`t out of the
question, but generally dry conditions are expected. Winds will be
out of the northeast.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence High...

Mid and high level clouds continue to push off to the south and
southeast this morning, with cooler and drier air building into
the area from the north. Early morning temperatures have already
fallen into the upper 50s and low 60s in many spots, and will cool
another couple of degrees before sunrise.

A large area of mid level stratus has developed to our north,
ahead of another shortwave which is rotating south across
Minnesota into northern Wisconsin, around the western periphery of
the main upper level low, which is over central Quebec. This will
eventually push another cold front through the area later today,
as well result in a fairly widespread stratocu deck for much of
the day. A few sprinkles aren`t entirely out of the question,
especially over central Wisconsin, but forecast soundings show a
very dry layer both above and below the cloud deck, suggesting
that any meaningful precip will be pretty tough to come by.
Increased clouds today will keep temperatures on the cool side,
with low 70s north and mid 70s south.

Skies should mostly clear out tonight, with temperatures again
falling into the low to mid 50s. Some patchy fog will be possible,
especially in low lying and sheltered areas.

LONG TERM...

Friday through Sunday...Forecast Confidence High...

Expansive high pressure will very gradually push east across the
northern Great Lakes Friday and Saturday, with cool and dry
easterly flow across the region. Highs Friday will be in the low
70s with a mix of sun and clouds, with readings topping out in the
mid 70s on Saturday. Saturday morning may be the coolest of the
stretch, with morning lows away from Lake Michigan a degree or
two on either side of 50.

Low level flow turns progressively more southerly through the day
Sunday, with moisture gradually returning to the area ahead of a
broad area of mid level troughing to our west. The daytime hours
Sunday should be dry, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Showers
and a few thunderstorms should slowly move in from the west Sunday
evening and night, though their eastward progress will likely be
slowed by dry air.

Monday through Mid Week...Forecast Confidence Moderate.

Monday and Monday night looks to be the most active period, with a
robust shortwave and strong cold front approaching and moving
through the region. A few rounds of rain and thunderstorms will be
possible during this time, depending on exact timing of the front
and structure of the upper level wave.

Guidance is then in pretty good agreement in carving out an
expansive upper level low across the Great Lakes and southern
Ontario during the midweek timeframe--a very autumn-like pattern.
Depending on where exactly the upper low sets up, we may see a few
scattered rain showers across the region. Highs will likely be
back into the low 70s, dependent on the extent of cloud cover.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected today, with light northeast winds. A
scattered to broken stratocu deck is likely for much of the day,
based around 4-5kft. A stray sprinkle or two is possible as well,
but no meaningful precipitation is expected.

MARINE...

North to northeast winds are expected across Lake Michigan today
and tomorrow, with some periodic gustiness between 15 and 20 knots
at times. Waves will build into the 2-3 foot range across the
nearshore and 3-5 feet over the southern third to half of the open
waters. Winds will become more easterly heading into Saturday and
then gradually become more and more southerly heading into Sunday
and Monday. Thunderstorm chances will return to the area Monday
and Monday night, ahead of a strong cold front.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Stumpf
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...Boxell


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