Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 242012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
312 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019


Rest of this Afternoon through Monday Afternoon...Forecast
Confidence High...

Scattered showers continue across the southern third or so of the
forecast area this afternoon. An upper level low over extreme
northern Missouri will push into south-central Illinois tonight.
Showers ahead of this feature have been rotating into the area
from the southwest through the day today, but have largely been
eroded by dry air over the region.

At the same time, a strong cold front is making quick progress
south along Lake Michigan, having nosed inland from Port
Washington north to Sheboygan over the last hour. This front will
continue to move south (effectively southwest given acceleration
associated with the colder lake water) this afternoon and evening,
bringing much colder air and gusty northeast winds to the forecast

Showers may briefly increase in coverage as the front moves
through, especially closer to the Illinois state line, where
moisture is somewhat better. Most areas will likely just see a few
brief light rain showers or sprinkles this evening.

Temperatures will quickly fall this evening from northeast to
southwest, with readings quickly falling into the 30s behind the
front. Expect gusty winds for much of the night, with 20-25 MPH
gusts common away from Lake Michigan, and 25-30 MPH closer to the
lake. Skies will eventually clear late tonight, with morning lows
on Monday ranging from the low 20s north to mid to upper 20s

Winds will slowly diminish through the day on Monday as high
pressure builds into the area. Despite sunny skies, highs will
only range from the upper 30s east to mid 40s west.


Monday Night through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is High.

Monday night will be a cold night due to clear skies and calm winds
allowing for efficient radiational cooling. High pressure centered
overhead will inch eastward on Tuesday. A weak shortwave trough
crossing the Upper Midwest could bring us a few mid and high clouds
by late Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will range from the
lower 40s near the lake due to continued onshore flow to the upper
40s to perhaps 50 well inland.

Expect increasing southerly winds Tuesday night with not-so-cold
minimum temps in the 20s. This is due to high pressure departing and
low pressure approaching from the Northern Plains.

Wednesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

Breezy southerly winds will boost temperatures into the upper 50s
inland and lower 50s toward Lake Michigan on Wednesday. Expect
increasing mid level clouds through the afternoon. By Wednesday
evening, warm air advection extending from the Plains into a surface
low crossing southern Ontario will bring a small chance for showers
to southern WI. This weak forcing and instability would give us a
slight chance for thunderstorms as well. The chance is lower than
previous forecasts since the better forcing is over northern WI now.

The associated cold front will slide south through WI on Thursday.
The baroclinic zone interacting with weak shortwave energy and upper
divergence from a departing jet streak will allow for a better
chance of showers across southern WI. Can`t rule out thunderstorms,
but left the chance out for now.

Friday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is Low.

The baroclinic zone is expected to stall over southern WI Thursday
night and remain a focus for additional showers and perhaps
thunderstorms across southern WI on Friday and Saturday. An upper
trough swinging from the Rockies to the Midwest will be the main
forcing for precip. There are large discrepancies between the models
regarding the amplitude and movement of the upper low for next
weekend. Colder air sliding in behind the front Saturday could give
us a chance for snow. It looks like Sunday will be dry but cool.


.AVIATION(21Z TAF Update)...

Conditions will generally be VFR through the next 24 hours, though
a brief period of MVFR will be possible at the terminals later
this afternoon and evening as a strong front moves through the
area. This will be most likely at Milwaukee and Kenosha, with
lower chances at Waukesha and Madison. A few light rain showers or
sprinkles will also be possible, but no visibility restrictions
are anticipated.

Winds will become very gusty from the northeast as that cold front
passes through, with 20-25 knot gusts for much of the night. Skies
will eventually clear from the north tonight, with mostly clear
skies expected through the day on Monday. Winds on Monday will
gradually diminish as the day goes on.



North winds will increase late this afternoon into this evening,
with north to northeast gales to 35 knots expected over the
nearshore and across the southern half to two thirds of the open
waters, especially on the west side of the lake. A Gale Warning is
in effect until late tonight. Waves will increase considerably as

Winds will gradually diminish on Monday as high pressure builds
into the area. Quiet conditions are then expected through Tuesday,
before that high moves east of the region. As it moves east,
expect south to southwest flow to increase, with gusty winds
expected for Wednesday and Thursday.


LM...Gale Warning until 4 AM CDT Monday for LMZ080-567-643>646-669-



Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell/RAR
Monday Night through Sunday...Cronce is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.