Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 191938
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
238 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019

Tonight...Forecast confidence is high.

Low pressure will finally pull off to the east northeast tonight,
bringing an end to any lingering showers across our far northern
areas. There is an expansive cloud shield, so no clearing
tonight...and any clear skies in the southeast will cloud over
quickly this evening. Winds will remain elevated from the west
northwest.

Monday into Monday night...Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure will keep it dry with some clearing on Monday.
A cooler airmass will be in place...so highs only in the 50s to
around 60. Look for diminishing winds. Warm air advection well
ahead of a low pressure system over the Central Plains could
result in some rain pushing into areas well southwest of Madison
toward sunrise on Monday. Otherwise, Monday night looks dry across
the area.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Forecast confidence is medium.

The low pressure system over the central plains will generally lift
north into the Dakotas and Minnesota by Wednesday morning. The
warm advection well out ahead of the low is expected to bring some
showers and possible thunderstorms to the area during this
period. The main period would likely be during the afternoon and
evening. But, the triggering mechanism (warm air advection and mid
level short wave) will be progressively drifting farther away
from the parent system, so an overall weakening trend should occur
as it pushes east with time. We`ll also have a drier east to
southeast flow that will help erode some of the advancing precip.
Those easterly winds will keep temps in the 50s.

Wednesday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is low.

By Wednesday, a large, blocking mid level high pressure system
is forecast to set up over Gulf Coastal area of the southeast
CONUS. This looks more like a summer setup and puts us in a "Ring
of Fire" pattern for the latter half of the week. This means all
the showers and thunderstorms will ride the northern periphery of
this ridge...across Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. That`s
not a good pattern for anyone hoping for a drier stretch of
weather. We`ll have to wait and see where the focus for the
repetitive rounds of showers and thunderstorms sets up later this
week. It is too early for those details, but it is an unsettled
weather pattern for sure. On the positive side, this does result
in building heat, so temps are looking more seasonable. Finally.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

A large area of MVFR CIGS will push southeast across the area
this afternoon and evening. Those MVFR CIGS will gradually lift to
VFR levels later Monday morning. Expect gusty southwest winds to
veer west tonight and diminish Monday morning. A lake breeze will
likely kick in toward mid afternoon...causing winds to turn
easterly close to the lake.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong low pressure tracking from southern Wisconsin to northern
Lower Michigan through early this evening will result in west to
northwest winds pushing across the entire lake early this evening.
Small craft advisory conditions will persist within the nearshore
waters through the evening.

Look for winds to diminish on Monday as high pressure moves into
the area.

Easterly winds develop by Tuesday as strong low pressure over the
Central Plains lifts slowly north. Those winds will become gusty
Tuesday night into Wednesday, which should bring building waves
to the western portions of the lake. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Monday Night through Sunday...Davis


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