853
FXUS63 KMPX 252007
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
207 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures are expected through much of the
  week with little to no chances for precip through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Its a blustery Saturday as a cold front sweeps across the
region. As of 1pm, the front is sitting just west of the Twin
Cities with a nearly 15 degree temperature spread from
Alexandria to Albert Lea. Westerly to northwesterly winds are
generally gusting 30-35 MPH, but gusts over 40 to near 50 MPH
are not uncommon. Winds are expected to diminish overnight and
into Sunday, but breezy southwest winds are likely as we find
ourselves between a deepening surface low well to our north over
the Hudson Bay and a surface high overspreading the Great
Plains.

By Monday and Tuesday, we see an appreciable jump in
temperatures despite continued northwest flow. Most should be
above freezing for Monday with southern and western Minnesota
approaching 40, with mid 30s to mid 40s possible area wide by
Tuesday. A clipper will track across northeastern Minnesota, but
only our far northeastern Wisconsin counties may see a few
light snow showers/flurries. Highs Wednesday will temporarily
dip back into the 20s and 30s following the cold front
associated with the clipper, but they rebound back to well above
average to finish out the month of January.

As we head into the final days of January and look towards
February, ensembles continue to highlight an increase in precip
chances as we finally see a pattern change that would bring the
overall storm track back to the north. There also appears to be
a signal for colder temperatures to return by the first week of
February with the 850mb temps taking a dive across much of the
central and western CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Low VFR to high MVFR ceilings this afternoon. Some period of
snow could provide periods of mid to low MVFR ceilings and
visibility. Best chance for this will be farther north, mainly
AXN. As the front has now passed winds are gusty from the
northwest. Most gusts are in the 20 to 30 knot range, but a few
higher gusts into the 30s have been seen. These higher gusts
will remain rare and isolated and therefore have been left out
of the TAFs. Snow chances come to an end this evening and winds
calm tonight. Winds will pick up again tomorrow from a more
southwesterly direction.

KMSP...Snow chances are low and unlikely to have much of an
impact at the terminal today. What will be more impactful are
the winds. There was a 38 knot gust earlier as the front came
through, but now that it has passed gusts should be up to
around 30 knots. These northwest winds will continue through the
day, but will calm and start shifting overnight. By tomorrow
afternoon the winds will have shifted to a southwest crosswind.
Have kept this shift out of the TAF for now until certainty on
the how high the winds will be increases.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON-TUE...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...NDC