Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 251817 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
117 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

By this morning, a remnant MCV will lift northeast into the area
with the potential for another Monday night. Showers will
accompany the MCV, moving across eastern Minnesota and west-
central Wisconsin leaving behind another day of overcast skies.
Temperatures will rebound into the upper 70s/low 80s despite the
cloud cover. CAMs try to develop another round of showers and
thunderstorms from a potential MCV Monday evening. Forecast
soundings show MLCAPE values between 500 to 1000J/kg with poor
lapse rates and weak vertical wind shear, limiting the severe
threat. However, if storms develop there will still be the
potential for gusty winds and small hail. Monday evening
convection will be dependent on the convective trends across the
southern Plains.

The final system from the southern Plains trough will lift north
across the region Tuesday. After this time, the trough will cut off
over Texas and end the train MCVs. For Tuesday, expect high
temperatures in the upper 70s with mostly cloudy conditions. Tuesday
afternoon/evening presents another chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Potential thunderstorm development will be favored
across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin ahead of the surface
front where atmospheric instability will be the greatest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

Zonal flow north of the cutoff system midweek will give way to
troughing across the north central and northeastern U.S. late week
and next weekend. A brief shot of cooler and drier air will
accompany the trough and surface high pressure on Friday. The
airmass behind the trough will be relatively dry, keeping the
rain chances out of the area for the rest of the forecast period.

High temperatures will remain in the low/mid 70s into next
weekend. Expect the cool down to be brief as both EPS/GEFS
ensembles continue to build the ridge back northeast from the
Rockies late weekend and the following week as the trough lifts
away. Looking ahead into the first week of June, the CPC outlooks
favor above normal temperature probabilities.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

VFR conditions through the rest of the day and into this evening.
Aside from a stray shower this afternoon, precipitation will hold
off until later in the evening as a complex of showers and a few
thunderstorms lifts north from Iowa. 04-07Z appears to be the most
likely time MSP, RNH, and EAU will be impacted. Additional showers
will develop across western MN overnight. Cigs will likely
deteriorate to IFR across western MN late tonight and persist into

KMSP...No significant concerns until later this evening. Included
a PROB30 to highlight the low potential of thunder with the
cluster of showers. A nearly stationary front will be nearby
Tuesday. This provides low confidence in wind direction.

Tue...VFR/MVFR with -TSRA possible. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind W/NW at 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind NW at 10-15 kts.




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