Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 100358
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1058 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
  into Saturday evening. Pockets of heavy rain possible but no severe
  weather is expected.

- Dry weather expected Sunday through Wednesday, with very low
  humidity.

- Near normal temperatures Saturday, cooler on Sunday, followed by
  above normal temperatures returning for the rest of next week.

Today through Friday...Overall no significant chances to the weather
forecast. The main item of note is the chance for rain as a weak
frontal boundary pushes through the region on Saturday. Early
afternoon satellite imagery with radar and surface obs showed
scattered thunderstorms along the front as it moved southward from
the international border. This is a nice foreshadowing of what we
can expect tomorrow, with better chances for storms in the afternoon.

However, we do not expect widespread soaking rain. The HREF local
probability matched mean does a nice job depicting the scattered
nature of the precipitation, and also highlighting the fact that if
you`re able to get stuck under a heavier storm, you could get over an
inch or two of rainfall. These amounts will be very localized. As for
the severe threat, the lack of wind shear means storms won`t be
organized. However could have some gusty winds or small hail with a
few of the stronger cores. A site in northern Minnesota gusted to 50
mph with a passing thunderstorms.

Looking ahead, this front will sag southward as Canadian high
pressure builds across the region for Sunday and Monday. This will be
a dry air mass, so there will be an elevated fire weather risk as
humidity drops into the 20s and possibly teens during the afternoon.
The dry weather will continue for much of next week as a large
cyclone develops over the Great Lakes, but leaves our area under an
upper level ridge. Temperatures will warm into next week, with highs
in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Only made minor changes from the previous TAF forecast, starting with
a mention of the showers over northwestern MN lasting over AXN just
after 06z. Best chances for scattered thunderstorms looks to be
tomorrow afternoon as the cold front sags south, especially across
southern MN. Have kept the PROB30s associated with this potential
with MVFR conditions possible due to reduced visibilities. Clouds
will build with cigs dropping to low-VFR near the front before clouds
begin to clear within hours of frontal passage. Winds will flip to
northeasterly post front, increasing to near 10 knots in the
afternoon and strengthening to near 15 knots Saturday evening. Gusts
will reach 20-25 knots during Saturday evening.

KMSP...Removed the PROB30 mention of showers for Saturday morning.
Kept PROB30 for thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon with
conditions dropping to at least MVFR if storms occur. Northeasterly
winds will get breezy Saturday evening with gusts to around 25 knots.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind NE 15G25 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...CTG


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