Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 010008 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
708 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

A blustery Halloween evening is on the way as a strong surface trough
pushes across the area. Wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range will
continue to develop from west to east late this afternoon, and become
common through the overnight hours. There could even be gusts
slightly higher than that after dark, when the better pressure
rise/fall couplet passes over central Minnesota. Have issued a Wind
Advisory for most of the MN portion of the forecast area. This may
eventually need to be expanded eastward into southeast MN and western
WI this evening.

In the wake of the surface trough, temperatures will gradually fall
throughout the evening hours. A broken deck of low clouds will also
foster the potential for scattered sprinkles, and possibly even
flurries in the Wisconsin portion of the forecast area.

Brisk northwest winds persist through most of Sunday, although speeds
will slacken a bit given the gradually relaxing pressure gradient.
Temperatures will top out in the lower 30s to lower 40s, about 10
degrees below climatological normals for the first of November.

Sunday night winds will rather abruptly switch back to a
southwesterly direction, and set the stage for moderating
temperatures for the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

The long term will be characterized by above normal temperatures and
dry conditions up until the very end of the period.

Normal highs for the beginning of November are typically in the mid
to upper 40s, but most areas are looking to be 10 to nearly 20
degrees above normal. With ridging and largely zonal flow aloft
through the majority of the period, this first week of November will
help to make up for the uncharacteristically snowy week in mid
October. 850mb temperatures will be in the 15-18C range by mid week,
which is about 2 standard deviations above normal. While these temps
are a welcome treat to start the first full week of November, as of
now we are likely going to come up short of record territory. Record
highs for the three MPX climate sites are in the 70s each day. In
addition to these warm November days, there will be plenty of
sunshine to go around. Moisture really looks to be lacking not only
in terms of precip, but widespread cloud cover as well.

Some big changes may be on the horizon come next weekend, but model
agreement on the placement of large scale features and run to run
consistency is very poor at this moment in time. However, the
general consensus is that a deep trough will move onshore of the
west coast Saturday, which would likely lead to a big pattern shift
towards cooler, wetter, and windier conditions as it approaches the
area. Given that this is a week out, will refrain from thinking
about changes to the forecast for next weekend and beyond and
instead focus on enjoying the sunshine and warmth.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 709 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Gusty WNW winds will prevail through the overnight, then wane
gradually throughout Sunday. A few sporadic gusts of 45 kts
possible. VFR conditions expected. A few flurries are also possible
this evening.

KMSP...Frequent gusts of 35-42 kts are expected through tonight. It
is clear at TAF issuance time, but mid level clouds will return after
01-02Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Wind W at 10G20 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-
     Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-
     Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-
     Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-
     Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-
     Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.

WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...Dye
AVIATION...Borghoff



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