Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 020448
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1048 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Very little to talk about in the short term. High pressure overhead
today will slide southeast and allow winds to turn southerly late
this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will reach their lows
shortly after sunset, then rise overnight to the upper teens in
western WI to around 30 near the Buffalo Ridge as winds increase.
Gusty south southwesterly flow will continue through Tuesday. Similar
to Friday, the amount of mixing is in question due to the snow pack
and strong WAA aloft. There should be gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range
as temperatures rise into the 40s. Some 50s are possible over west
central MN with winds turning more west in the afternoon and tapping
into the warmer air over largely snowless northern SD.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

A very quiet pattern will prevail throughout the long term period
with a gradually amplifying pattern consisting of a longwave trough
over the northeast and the Mid Atlantic and a ridge over the Rockies
and Plains. Highly anomalous 500 mb heights will build through the
week across most of Canada, but centered over south central Canada,
and then spreading south into the southern Plains. The pattern looks
to become a little more progressive this weekend and early next week
with the northeast trough weakening and allowing the ridge to shift
east to the Great Lakes.

At the surface, high pressure will remain mostly centered over the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with low pressure developing over the
northern Rockies this weekend. Daily surface temperatures will
largely be dictated by the influence of the high to the east, surface
winds, temperatures aloft, and decaying snow cover. Ensemble spread
is satisfactorily low on the GEFS and EPS, not too surprising given
the stagnant pattern. This forecast follows the ensemble means
closely and temperatures will likely increase bit by bit each day
until this weekend when the surface high pushes farther southeast and
southwest flow strengthens ahead of the approaching low from the
Rockies. Temperatures Sunday and Monday could really soar if we put a
sizable dent in the snowpack this week. 925 and 850 mb temps would
suggest highs well into the 60s both days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Solid VFR conditions throughout this TAF period with clear skies.
Southerly winds to prevail, becoming breezy/gusty overnight through
much of Tuesday. A potent warm front will cross the area around
daybreak. bringing with it strong low level jetting across the
region. High confidence this will create LLWS conditions overnight
through the first half of Tuesday until boundary layer conditions mix
out. Winds at around 2 kft will range 40-50kt with a 30-50 degree
directional difference with surface winds.

KMSP...Strong low level jetting expected throughout the Tuesday
morning push. Strongest surface gusts look to hit around 25kt,
potentially close to 30kt. Winds will subside going into the evening
push time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind VRB 5 kts.
Thu-Fri...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...JPC


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