Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 211116

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
516 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020

.UPDATE...For 12Z Aviation discussion below


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 409 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020

High pressure is well southeast of the area today, allowing for
increasing low level southwest flow. Temperatures will respond by
warming into the low/mid 30s, although given the brisk winds, it
won`t feel "warm." Given winds in the 20-25 mph range with gusts
into the lower 30s from west into south central MN, patchy
blowing snow will be possible as well.

Hi-res models are hinting at fog/stratus development tonight,
although are likely overdoing boundary layer moisture (and
snowmelt), so have kept only a scattered cloud mention in
anticipation of increasing cirrus.

Another mild day is expected on Saturday, with lighter southwest
winds. Highs should sneak into the mid/upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 409 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020

Confidence is increasing the long term period will be pretty quiet
with little chance for accumulating snow. A split flow pattern
will be in place through about Monday. During this time, the
southern jet will be most active and thus the storm track will
remain well to the south. Mild temperatures will continue with the
northern jet remaining across southern Canada. A dry cold front
will be passing through Sunday, but not before temps warm into the
mid 30s to low 40s with the warmer temps in the lower albedo areas
of EC MN and WC WI.

The pattern will shift a bit later Monday and persist through the
rest of the week. A storm system associated with the southern jet
will track into the Ohio Valley Monday night. Meanwhile, the
northern jet is expected to dive south across the Rockies during
this time as well. The two jets will phase by Tuesday carving out
a large trough across the eastern two-thirds of the country and
spawning a very large system along the east coast. Several weak
short waves will be descending southeast with the upper jet into
the Upper Midwest. Increased cloudiness, colder temperatures, and
perhaps some disorganized snow showers will be the result for
much of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020

Mostly clear skies are expected through the period. Low level
winds increase today from the southwest, with some low level wind
shear this morning followed by surface gusts as mixing occurs. By
late afternoon, wind gusts subside and the directional component
becomes closer to westerly at MN sites. Continued to lean toward
a more optimistic scenario for cloud cover tonight, discounting
the fog/stratus deck development given the amount of low level
moisture/snowmelt seems overdone.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

Sun...VFR. Wind W 5 kts bcmg NW 10-15 kts.
Mon...MVFR cigs likely. Wind NE 10-15 kts.
Tue...MVFR with Chc -SN. Wind N 10-15 kts.




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