581
FXUS63 KMPX 161137
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
637 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers moving through this morning, followed by a
  mostly dry day before the next round starts tonight.

- Thunderstorms expected on Wednesday with the chance for some
  strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon.

- Below normal temperatures (highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s)
  through the end of the week, with a return to more normal
  (upper 70s) this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The surface low will continue to slowly move across Minnesota
and into Wisconsin this morning. As this low moves through
additional rain showers will occur. With us near a diurnal
instability minimum and no storms having formed enough of a cold
pool for upscale growth thunderstorm chances have come to an
end. The low track will keep southern Minnesota dry with the
rain chances mainly over central Minnesota and western Wisconsin
this morning. By the afternoon this low should be mostly out
with just some low chances for some showers lingering in western
Wisconsin. This break will be brief as the next shortwave and
associated surface low will be moving in tonight. With this next
system there will more moisture transported in with a period of
southerly winds at 850 mb as it moves in. This will help to
moisten the atmosphere to give more widespread precipitation
chances. Both deterministic and ensemble solutions suggest high
rain chances broadly across the region as a deep more early
spring/winter like low moves through the Upper Midwest. What is
interesting about the setup are the severe weather chances. This
can broadly be put into two phases: before and after the low
passes. Ahead of the surface low passing over southern
Minnesota, the surface winds will be from the south and with the
strong westerly winds aloft this will produce ample shear and
hodographs favorable for supercells. However based on the
expected timing of the the low moving though this would be in
morning when instability will be low. As instability builds
though, that low will continue to move to the east. Based on
current model guidance it looks like much of the area could be
behind the low by that point. This would change the vertical
wind profile to leave us with mostly speed shear. The lack of
the two fully overlapping should keep the worst of the severe
weather off to our southeast. Since building instability will be
key here, southern Minnesota looks to be the main risk area.
This is because instability looks to build the highest there
and this area has the best chance to overlap with the better
shear profile. Due to this chance to SPC has brought a slight
risk (2/5 risk level) into southern Minnesota for the chance for
large damaging hail.

Wednesday`s low will be well to our southeast by Wednesday
night and outside of a few more isolated wrap around showers
rain chances will come to an end. Looking at the end of the week
into the weekend we will remain in a northwest flow pattern with
quite a bit of uncertainty still on how active it will be.
Looking towards the global ensembles, it varies quite a bit
between systems with European members being more active and
North American (GEFS and GEPS) staying on the dry side more
often. So the spread has not improved in the past day when it
comes to confidence in PoP. Where there has been increasing
clustering though is for a warming trend to bring us back into
normal temperatures (upper 70s) for the weekend. The GEPS even
has a few members as we get into next week run above normal and
into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The 12z TAF period opens with light rain showers and MVFR cigs
on the backside of a surface low that is moving from eastern MN
into western WI. Clouds and showers will gradually depart
eastward this morning, with western MN already reporting clear
skies. Once the skies clear it will be a relatively quiet day
with breezy northwesterly winds gusting to 20-25kts. Rain
chances return later tonight, but the presence of dry air in the
lowest 10k feet of the column makes the start time and the
precipitation rate somewhat of a lower confidence forecast. Took
the best blended solution from the hi-res models timing and
generally ran with a prevailing "6SM -SHRA"/low VFR cigs combo in
the TAFs.

KMSP...Morning batch of showers/MVFR cigs will depart to the
east of the terminal early in the period. Breezy diurnal NW
winds will be the theme for the remainder of the day. Tracking
another round of VFR/perhaps high MVFR rain showers that aims
to arrive after midnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/SHRA likely, chc -TSRA/IFR. Wind SE bcmg NW 5-15G20kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10G20kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 5-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...Strus