Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 181138 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
638 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

18/12Z TAFs. VFR conditions with light winds expected to prevail
most terminals into this evening, when TSRA progd to increase in
coverage from west to east. Greatest coverage expected over
northwest into north-central Oklahoma, but scattered TSRA will be
possible as far south as KSPS toward and after 00Z near quasi-
stationary frontal boundary. MVFR conditions likely in and near
TSRA, with IFR likely widespread late tonight beyond forecast
period across northern half of Oklahoma.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018/

Will still be a hot and humid day near the Red River and points
south, so that area will be monitored for another Heat Advisory
this afternoon. Possibility for more in the way of cloud cover and
also much of the region being post frontal will shave a few
degrees off highs.

MCV just west of Amarillo will likely be a factor in convective
development this morning and afternoon for southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Several of the CAMs are picking up on this
so will add/increase pops down that way for potential near and
just north of the stalled frontal boundary. More widespread
thunderstorm activity, in the form of large MCS, still expected to
move into northwest Oklahoma toward and after midnight. Models
consistent in moving MCS eastward mainly over northern Oklahoma
with trailing end across central portions of the state. While
strong to damaging winds cannot be ruled out, the potential for
localized flooding will be more of a concern late tonight and
Sunday morning. Current forecasts have the heaviest rain over far
northern Oklahoma, where well over 2 inch 3 hr/FFG values will be

Remnant MCS will likely be exiting Oklahoma Sunday morning into the
afternoon, with several hours of clearing expected across central
and southwest portions of the forecast area. This could lead to
enough recovery to allow scattered strong to severe storms to
develop Sunday night into Monday along a cold front. Deep layer
shear will be stronger during this time frame as upper trough
progresses over the region. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the severe weather threats, with the most likely areas to see this
development being near and southeast of the Interstate-44 corridor.

Outside of the possibility for lingering showers over southeast
parts of Oklahoma early Monday morning, Monday and Tuesday are
expected to be cooler and rain free. Developing northwesterly flow
could still bring brief periods of rain activity Tuesday night and
early Wednesday, along with Wednesday night and early Thursday. GFS
continues to be the most aggressive, while the ECM is stronger and
farther east with the upper ridge. The ECM has better dprog/dt
results in its favor, and is closer to previous forecast. This will
result in lower-than-initialized pops with more focus over the
northern sections of Oklahoma.


Oklahoma City OK  87  71  85  67 /  10  70  60  30
Hobart OK         88  70  90  67 /  30  70  40  20
Wichita Falls TX  94  74  94  71 /  30  50  30  40
Gage OK           84  67  85  62 /  30  80  30  10
Ponca City OK     89  70  82  65 /   0  70  80  30
Durant OK         94  75  92  73 /  20  40  30  50




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