Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 050349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1049 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...New AVIATION...

(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Still expect storms to move off the high plains late tonight
initially into western northwestern OK, and then spread/develop
southeastward into central OK. The most likely time will be from
05-12Z, although storms will likely persist after sunrise over east
central and SE OK. Damaging winds will be the main threat from this
activity with bowing segments possible, although some hail can`t be
ruled out. Precip chances and skies should clear out fairly quickly
by tomorrow afternoon behind the wave. Temps will, again, remain
well on the cool side for early Aug tomorrow afternoon along and
east of I-35.


(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

A stalled surface boundary is expected to begin lifting as a warm
front on Thursday as low level moisture/sfc dewpoints will begin to
increase. With a strengthening nighttime 925 mb low level jet and
strong veering 850 mb flow, expecting fairly strong warm air
advection in the boundary layer could initiate some convection
during the morning hours.  Although the atmosphere is expected to be
moderately unstable but strongly capped as per latest NAM forecast
soundings, cannot completely rule out other thermodynamic and
dynamic mechanisms enhancing vertical ascent to break the cap.  In
addition to the strong WAA, the NAM also showing strong isentropic
upglide through the boundary layer on the 310 K surface as well as
on the 315 K surface into the mid-level ridging.  For now have low
POPs overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning for -TSRA.  By
sunrise Thursday, expecting the low level jet to have shifted more
eastward along with the POPs and completely out of our forecast area
by noon.  Although not expecting severe storms at this time, the
amount of instability and DCAPE values could produce a few strong
storms and wind gusts at the surface.  Northcentral Oklahoma could
see some convection Thursday night with storms most likely across
northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas.  The forecast stays fairly
dry through the weekend, although a passing shortwave could fire up
a few storms Saturday night across far northwest Oklahoma.

Afternoon temperatures expected to stay seasonably average for the
long term of the forecast, although the increasing south winds could
produce lower triple digit highs across the far western edges of our
forecast area.  With the pressure gradient tightening a little bit
by Thursday afternoon, the windspeeds were rather unrepresentative
and weaker with the NBM, so repopulated the wind grids with the
slighlty stronger Superblend model to be more representative through
the long term forecast.


(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Scattered to numerous TSRA still likely over mainly central and
northern Oklahoma terminals and mainly from 08Z to 13Z. This will
be attributed to elevated warm advection regime, with model
trends shifting initation and progression farther east with time.
Will leave mention of TSRA in KWWR/KPNC along with KOKC/KOUN with
MVFR restrictions main impact. Most if not all of rain should
shift south and east of terminals by 15Z. VFR expected
thereafter with mainly light southeast to east wind.


Oklahoma City OK  64  84  69  92 /  80  40  30  20
Hobart OK         66  91  71  98 /  40  20  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  69  94  74  99 /  20  10  20  10
Gage OK           62  89  66  96 /  50  10  30  10
Ponca City OK     63  81  66  88 /  50  60  30  20
Durant OK         67  89  71  96 /  40  50  30  20




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