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000
FXUS64 KOUN 100342
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1042 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Similar to what we`ve seen this week, we`ve hit the convective
temperature in northern Texas and southern Oklahoma, with increased
cumulus development and a storm that has developed in Ponotoc County
and northern Johnston County. This pattern will likely continue
through the afternoon and the early evening, as temperatures
increase into the low to mid 90s.

The main concern continues to be the multiple possible rounds of
storms throughout tonight Friday night through Saturday morning, and
additional storms through Friday afternoon and evening. High plains
convection in southeastern Colorado will develop this afternoon,
with a weak perturbed upper level flow. The weak northwesterly flow
aloft will bring these storms into Oklahoma and northern Texas
during the late evening and overnight hours, resulting into a line
of storms/MCS moving through the region. There will be a chance
within the line of storms that some severe weather is possible, in
particular earlier in the overnight hours when shear is maximized (0-
6km shear > 30kts through 09Z). Large hail and damaging winds will
be the main concern.

The MCS/line will continue moving through central and southeastern
Oklahoma through Saturday morning and afternoon. In the wake of the
MCS, remnant outflow boundaries may cause some storms to develop,
with the best chances being located in southwestern Oklahoma and
northern Texas in areas not impacted by the initial line of storms.
Stronger shear profiles (0-6km shear > 45kts) will result in a
stronger severe thunderstorm chance, with increased potential for
larger hail and stronger damaging winds. In addition to these
remnant outflow boundary interactions, a dryline is expected to
develop across the Texas panhandle and in western north Texas, which
will be another focal point for additional storm develop. Throughout
the day on Saturday, along the Red River continues to be the area
with the highest potential for severe weather development.

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 424 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Showers and storm potential will continue throughout the weekend and
through early next week. On Sunday, an upper level cyclone will
shift southward through Canada into the Great Lakes region, which
will produce an upper level shortwave trough that will move through
the central Plains. This shortwave will generate additional storms
throughout Kansas, which will move through northern and central
Oklahoma on Sunday and into Monday, as well as bring a cold front
through the region. There`ll be a brief regionwide cooldown Monday,
before a gradual climb to above normal by midweek.

There continues to be some indications of a pattern change through
early and into the middle of next week, with the gradual removal of
the strong upper level ridge through the north central US and a more
open pattern across the southern United States. Currently
model/ensemble spread is wide with the possible evolution of the
upper level pattern. One prevailing solution continues to be the
development of a strong upper level cyclone moving into the
southwestern US and between this cyclone with the closed low cyclone
over the Great Lakes, eventually eroding the upper level ridge and
opening up the flow through the central United States. Uncertainty
continues to be high with next week`s pattern, however shower and
storm potential is expected to continue.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are still expected to move into
northwestern OK within the next couple of hours, and then east
southeastward into north central OK. Additional thunderstorm
development is then expected around 09-10Z near central OK.
Several outflow boundaries will result in wind shifts from the
north and perhaps northeast overnight. In addition, strong gusts
are expected with the thunderstorms. Mid to high clouds will
continue to increase overnight, but MVFR cigs likely won`t
develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  90  66  89 /  60  60  20  10
Hobart OK         67  94  65  92 /  50  20  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  99  67  98 /  10  30  10   0
Gage OK           62  89  62  85 /  30  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     67  86  65  84 /  60  30  40  10
Durant OK         72  94  68  95 /   0  60  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...03