998
FXUS64 KOUN 151723
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1123 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

- Expecting dry and warm conditions on Thursday and Friday.

- Much colder temperatures from the weekend through early next
  week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Guidance is a little split on the effect that the cold airmass that
has leaked south from Kansas will have on today`s high temperatures.
Predictably, the NAM is showing a colder outcome with highs in the
40s while the HRRR is showing a warmer outcome with highs in the
50s. Generally speaking, the warmer outcome has been right the last
few days, and with a surface high nearby there will be light
westerly winds. However, given the postfrontal nature of the
airmass, NBM temperatures for today (right in the middle of the
two solutions) were left intact.

Quiet weather will continue tonight with a shortwave ridge axis
approaching. Clear skies should drop temperatures close to freezing.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 222 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

We`ll get back to warmer-than-average conditions beginning tomorrow.
The shortwave ridging/weak surface flow pattern will gradually be
replaced by southerly winds as a northern-stream jet streak
approaches the Northern Plains. With dry return flow and sunny skies
expected, highs should rise 5-10 degrees compared to today.

That northern-stream trough will move east of our latitude Thursday
night, though the effects won`t be immediately felt due to an
approaching southern-stream jet streak. With that occurring,
continued pressure falls and eventually cyclogenesis is expected
across the Southern Plains on Friday. However, the primary pressure
features across North America will be an occluding Hudson Bay Low
and the massive Alberta high that replaces it. Those two features
mean one thing for our area: a strong cold front that comes sweeping
down the Plains.

There are some timing differences regarding the front, with most
global models suggesting it begins to impinge on northern Oklahoma
Friday evening, and the NAM suggesting that this occurs closer to
midday Friday. In these shallow cold airmass scenarios, the NAM
almost always emerges victorious. Thus, high temperatures have been
shaded downwards in northern Oklahoma during the day. To the south
of the front, temperatures should soar into the 60s. The front will
roar through the area by daybreak Saturday morning.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

The period between Saturday and Tuesday has a good chance to be our
coldest of this winter. With that said, the potential for impactful
winter weather with this Arctic blast looks pretty low. Details:

As is typical with strong frontal airmasses on the High Plains,
there will likely be a tendency for winds to shift from
northwesterly to northeasterly during the day on Saturday. This
explains the shield of postfrontal upslope snow showing up on
models. Given our distance from the Rocky Mountain Front, this snow
shield doesn`t pose a potential for accumulating snow here. However,
the potential for saturation of the postfrontal airmass suggests
that we could see flurries across our area Saturday, as we often do
in these environments.

Cold advection continues on Sunday, with temperatures never making
it back above freezing in our area and wind chills getting to the
single digits or colder well into our area. On Monday we will likely
see temperatures drop further, with air temperatures in the morning
near 10 and wind chills potentially getting into the negatives north
of I-40.

The pattern appears to be quite complex, but right now global models
are both depicting the potential for another storm system across the
Southern Plains sometime on Monday or Tuesday. With that said,
ensemble probabilities of snow across our area are quite low.
However, this will be something to monitor as we get closer to early
next week.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. A few
passing mid/high-clouds and westerly winds are expected through
sunset across the region. Patchy radiational fog is possible
during the predawn hours on Thursday, though signal remains too
diffuse to include lowered vis mentions at this update.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  31  57  37  61 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         27  60  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  29  61  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           26  56  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     26  53  33  57 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         31  59  37  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...09