Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 090841
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
241 AM CST Tue Mar 9 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Mar 9 2021

Much like yesterday, today will be warm and breezy with a layer of
cirrus moving in overhead. The dryline is forecast to approach
northwest Oklahoma, possibly just nudging into our forecast area.
This could result in elevated to near critical conditions over far
northwest Oklahoma this afternoon. Additionally, this forecast
will include a wind advisory for this afternoon and evening.

With warm moist southerly flow and continued cloud cover, overnight
lows will be mainly in the upper 50s. A roaring low level jet will
keep winds quite gusty overnight (nudged grids toward a MOS blend).

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Mar 9 2021

The main impacts for the extended period will be fire weather on
Wednesday and gradually increasing chances for showers and storms
(including some severe) Wednesday night through the weekend.

A progressive dryline will set us up for warm, breezy weather and
fire weather conditions on Wednesday. Deterministic guidance
suggests the dryline making it 1-3 counties into western Oklahoma
and western north Texas (with the farthest push being into
northwest Oklahoma). This will result in deeper mixing, drier air,
and warmer temperatures behind the dryline. Nudged toward NBM
10th percentile for dewpoints and toward MOS guidance for MaxT.
With a weaker low level jet during the day, did not see much
reason to deviate on winds (NBM seems to capture the breezy winds
fairly well). A fire weather watch remains in effect for much of
western Oklahoma as fire weather conditions are expected to reach
near elevated levels.

Southerly winds will remain gusty overnight as the low level jet
ramps up again.

With an approaching upper low and leading shortwave combined with
strong warm moist advection, low chances for showers and storms
(including some strong to severe storms) will begin late Wednesday
and gradually increase into the weekend as the upper low
approaches.

Wednesday night appears conditional, but any storms that do form
will have the support of the low level jet. A front arriving early
Thursday morning and stalling across Oklahoma Thursday afternoon
will provide stronger forcing and focus for storms into the weekend.
This prolonged period of rain with high PWATs will pose a flood
risk.

Conditions finally dry out early next week as the upper low exits.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

Moderate-strong southerly winds will continue through the forecast
period. Will keep mention of TEMPO for MVFR stratus for a few
hours after sunrise, otherwise VFR expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  60  75  60 /   0  10  10  30
Hobart OK         73  58  81  53 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  75  60  81  60 /   0   0   0  20
Gage OK           76  53  84  41 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     73  61  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
Durant OK         70  58  72  63 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for
     OKZ004>025-034-035.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022-033-034.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11



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