Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 071023
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
523 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021

...New AVIATION, UPPER AIR...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021

An area of warm advection showers and isolated storms will be
possible later this morning from portions of central Kansas south
across portions of north central into northeastern Oklahoma. This
activity is expected to shift east of the area by late this morning
into the early afternoon. Otherwise, south winds will increase today
with warm temperatures. This will result in elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon across portions of western Oklahoma.

Later today, convection is expected to develop to our west across
the high plains. This activity will move eastward toward northwest
Oklahoma by late in the day. Although instability will be somewhat
limited, a few high-based storms capable of some strong wind gusts
may impact this area. This activity is expected to weaken as it
moves farther east into the area Friday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021

A shortwave trough will approach the area Saturday with intensifying
surface low across southwest Kansas. This will result in strong,
gusty south winds across the area for Saturday. By afternoon, a
dryline will be located from an elongated area of surface low
pressure in central/southwest Kansas south across western Oklahoma.
Sufficient instability will be present across the warm sector for
strong to severe storms by late Saturday afternoon and evening,
however a strong cap will also be in place. This cap will preclude
convective development through the day and possibly into the
evening across Oklahoma, with a better chance to our north. Behind
the dryline, very warm, dry and windy conditions will result in
elevated fire weather concerns there.

As the system moves through the plains a cold front will surge south
across Oklahoma, will maintain some low pops along advancing cold
front Saturday evening. Better rain chances will likely occur by
Sunday afternoon along the nearly stalled cold front across parts of
southeast Oklahoma. Again, a few strong to possibly severe storms
may occur as instability will remain in place to the south of the
front.

After temps in the 80s and 90s Saturday, much cooler temps expected
in the wake of the cold front for Sunday, with most areas in the
70s. A few 80s will remain possible across the south.

By Tuesday, another shortwave trough will be moving through the
Rockies with some moisture trying to return north above the cooler
boundary layer. This will result in a chance of rain with little
instability for thunder and very cool temperatures for early May.
Temperatures on Tuesday will only climb into upper 50s and lower to
middle 60s across the area. This wave will move by on Wednesday with
a warming trend and dry weather into the end of the week. Next
chance of rain and storms will come by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Some
lingering showers could impact north-central OK, but should be out
of the area by late morning. Otherwise, winds out of the south
will start to gust around mid morning. LLWS should begin to impact
all sites later Friday evening and will continue until the end of
the period. Some showers and thunderstorms could impact northwest
OK Friday evening, but confidence in timing and location is low
at this time.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 517 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021

No Upper Air flight are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  64  85  61 /  10  20   0  20
Hobart OK         85  63  91  58 /  10  30   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  85  63  90  66 /  10  10   0  10
Gage OK           88  60  94  52 /  30  50   0  10
Ponca City OK     76  62  85  57 /  30  20  10  40
Durant OK         79  60  83  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...13


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