Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 192304 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
604 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...Update...


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Quick update to increase probabilities of precip in north-central
Oklahoma. Storms with sustained mid-level rotation and hail up to
3 inches and diameter in Kansas will be in a thermodynamic
environment favorable for sustenance for at least a few more
hours. Effective shear is marginal but supportive. These appear
to be strongly diurnally driven with comparatively limited
moisture further north and fairly high bases. Nevertheless, RAP
soundings upstream suggest that they should continue through at
least mid- evening with an attendant hail/wind threat. 2m theta-e
slowly decreases late in the evening and this should result in
decreased intensity. Some evolution toward more of a wind threat
with time is possible as cold pool matures/grows.

Further south, confidence in storm initiation in the Tornado Watch
isn`t particularly high immediately north and west of ongoing
impressive supercells south of the Red River. Visible satellite
indicates storm-scale subsidence on the western flank having a
deleterious affect to cumulus field from between Gainesville and
Sherman northward into Marshall and portions of Bryan Counties.
One anticyclonic meso near Bonham has weakened as it moves toward
far southeast Bryan County. Persistent attempts at convection have
been noted near the Red River in Love county on visible satellite
(i.e., persistent attached small anvils/glaciation). Further west
into Clay County, cumulus is still present but even orphan anvils
have decreased over the last 30 minutes or so. Further north
toward Atoka and Tishomingo, a more stable environment is evident
by more of a billow look to cu structure in satellite, thus the
threat drops of markedly. This is coincident with the north edge
of more significant low level moisture/instability gradient. Thus,
probabilities were decreased across this area. We`ll continue to
monitor trends and consider early cancellation of the Tornado
Watch.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

DISCUSSION...

A boundary is observed on visible satellite in southern Oklahoma
and western north Texas where cumulus developing is occuring south
of the boundary. This boundary will act as a catalyst for
possible severe weather later this afternoon and evening. Forecast
soundings show ample CAPE (>3000J /kg) and sufficient deep shear
(>30kt SFC-6km) could lead to a decent chance for developing
severe storms with large hail and damaging winds. Severe potential
will diminish as this boundary shifts southeast overnight.

A low amplitude upper level ridge will set into place Thursday into
Friday which is expected to clear out the skies. Some westerly
surface flow and downsloping are expected to further increase the
surface heating Thursday and Friday prior to a switch to a southerly
wind and enhanced moisture return. While dry conditions and no
precipitation is anticipated, the increased heating and moisture
return may destabilize the surface enough that some convection and
isolated thunderstorms could happen in far western Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Confidence is low in precipitation chances
Thursday evening, while precip chances were included for Friday
evening.

On Friday, an upper level ridge and high pressure cyclone sets up
yet again over the Gulf of Mexico, enhancing the moisture transport
into the region. An approaching upper level low pressure cyclone
will produce numerous shortwaves and upper level support for
precipitation on Saturday onward. A cold front is anticipated to
enhance precipitation chances over the weekend, however the timing
and location of the precipitation is uncertain as of this forecast.
Consistent moisture advection into the region throughout next week
will present the chance for additional precipitation.

Zwink

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  66  93  73 /  10  10   0  10
Hobart OK         88  66  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  93  69 100  77 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           84  63  93  68 /  20  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     81  64  91  71 /  20  20   0  10
Durant OK         90  68  94  76 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/12


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