Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 312256
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
556 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Lower level cloud cover expected to dissipate toward and drying
the evening hours with cirrus increasing overnight and tomorrow.
Southerly flow will commence and become gusty across northern and
western portions of Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow as lee trough
becomes established. Question tonight will be development of fog
with mostly clear skies, light wind, and moist ground over much of
the region. We will include mention of fog across central and
southern Oklahoma, and western north Texas, where wind increase
will be delayed. Do not expect widespread dense fog at this
time, but some localized/low-lying areas could see some brief
dense fog toward daybreak.

Southerly winds will become fairly gusty tomorrow and persist into
Thursday. With the developing long-fetch southerly flow and
increasing evapotranspiration, increasing dewpoints will be seen
(well into the 50s) ahead of southern stream s/wv trough to start
the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

As we enter southwest flow, a series of shortwaves with associated
rain chances will begin impacting the area Thursday through early
next week.

Thursday afternoon will be warm (especially in western parts of the
forecast area; cloud cover will mitigate temperatures across the
rest of the area) and breezy (across the whole CWA). The eastern
half of Oklahoma will see low rain chances as a shortwave moves over.

Late Thursday night, a cold front will start to push into Oklahoma,
bringing some breezy north winds and cooler temperatures behind it.
Precipitation is expected to ramp up near the front as it surges
southeastward Friday. Right now this looks like our best chance for
rain and thunderstorms.

Temperatures on Friday are a bit tricky with the timing of the
front, some decent warm air advection out ahead of the front, and
the complicating factors of cloud cover and rain. For much of the
area, went below guidance trending toward a blend of raw models.

Most of the rain should move out by early Saturday. Additional
rain chances will return Sunday and Monday as southwest flow
continues and the southerly moisture fetch resumes. Temperatures
should quickly rebound over the weekend / early next week.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Light south winds will increase Wednesday morning and will become
quite strong acros western parts of the area. Gusts to near or
above 30kts will be possible by mid/late morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions to continue with increase in high clouds tonight with
some mid clouds moving in by Wednesday afternoon.

Some patchy fog possible across southern half of area late tonight
for a few hours, but chances remain too low to mention in forecast
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  46  69  54  72 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         46  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  47  71  55  76 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           47  74  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     45  71  54  72 /   0   0  10  20
Durant OK         45  69  53  71 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30


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