Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 191856
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
156 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Very hot temperatures are the rule across the area this afternoon,
with highs once again reaching into the low to mid 100s across our
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas counties and 90s
elsewhere. For the first night in a while we do not expect high
plains convection to move into our area overnight, with dry
conditions across the region. A cold front will move into
northwest Oklahoma tomorrow morning, reaching the I-44 corridor by
late morning or early afternoon before stalling. A dryline will
extend southward into south-central Oklahoma and western north
Texas and will be the focus for potential convective development
by mid to late afternoon. Models are split on whether the dryline
circulation will be able to overcome the cap, but at least a
conditional risk for severe thunderstorms will exist as strong
instability will be in place along with adequate shear for storm
organization. If storms do develop, they will pose a risk for
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Additional storms will be
possible behind the cold front, especially across northeastern
portions of the area, with these storms mainly posing a risk for
hail due to their expected elevated nature.

Fire weather concerns will continue today and tomorrow for our
western north Texas counties behind the dryline and ahead of the
cold front tomorrow.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

On Friday, unseasonably warm temperatures will continue across
the area, where most places will get into the 90s and into the
100s in western north Texas. Southerly winds will drive mid 60s
dewpoints into central Oklahoma Friday afternoon ahead of an
advancing cold front. Convergence along this boundary could foster
scattered strong to marginally severe thunderstorms along and
east of I-44 Friday afternoon and evening. Sufficient instability
and effective shear could help storms organize some, with the main
hazards being large hail and damaging winds. The aforementioned
cold front will cool temperatures this weekend and early next week
down significantly from what we have had the last several weeks.
Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 70s on Saturday and
into the upper 60s on Sunday and Monday, before gradually warming
back up into the 80s by the end of the week.

Medium range models are in good agreement with a mid-level trough
across the Western CONUS early next week. This trough will bring
widespread precipitation chances starting Monday early morning and
going into Wednesday morning. As of right now, thunderstorms
could be strong and are not expected to be severe. Flooding is
expected to be the main hazard. Subsequent forecasts will continue
to monitor these trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the period with little to no
precipitation chance through tomorrow morning. Low-level wind
shear will be present at most sites overnight before subsiding
near or shortly after sunrise. A cold front will bring a shift to
northwest winds behind it tomorrow morning to our
northwestern/western OK sites, with south to south-southwest winds
ahead of the front elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  94  61  75 /   0  20  20  10
Hobart OK         74  96  58  77 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  75 103  67  90 /   0  30  20   0
Gage OK           61  81  49  66 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     73  86  56  69 /   0  10  40  20
Durant OK         71  93  71  88 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...08


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