Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 221140
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
640 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper-level trough and its associated surface cold front will
bring southerly winds and scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms ahead of it through the day today. As the front
advances southeast across Oklahoma during the day today, winds
will shift more to the west and northwest (then north), and little
or no rain is expected behind the front. Tonight, the front is
forecast to stall near the Red River, and with the dissipating
front and scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity, expect
wind directions in that area to be highly variable.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Combination of approaching upper wave, slow-moving surface front
and very moist airmass will lead to an area of potentially heavy
rainfall across parts of the area today. Although it appears that
the models may have overdone it a bit with forecast QPF the last
couple of runs, will make some adjustments but maintain flood
watch for portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas through the
day today. By afternoon, sufficient instability is expected to
develop along and ahead of the cold front, which is expected to be
just north of the I-44 corridor, for a few strong to severe storms
to be possible.

Upper wave moves by tonight and surface front stalls near Red
River valley before lifting back north Monday night into Tuesday.
As this occurs it will continue to be a focus for showers and
thunderstorms across the area. A few strong/severe storms may
occur ahead of next front across northern Oklahoma Tuesday
afternoon as modest instability develops during the afternoon.

Another weak boundary will slip south into Oklahoma Wednesday,
providing a focus for showers and thunderstorms, especially across
northern and eastern parts of the state through the day Thursday.
Again, it appears a severe storm or two not out of the question
across northern Oklahoma Wednesday and perhaps again Thursday.

Meanwhile, a closed upper low across the southwest part of the
country will open up and eject northeast into the Plains by the
end of the week. This will result in a continuation of precip
chances into Friday.

Things may begin to dry out by next weekend as models are
depicting the development of a large upper high building across
the southeast U.S. which then expands west and northwest
dominating much of the eastern half of the country.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  64  83  68 /  80  20  20  40
Hobart OK         85  64  86  69 /  40  10  20  40
Wichita Falls TX  88  68  87  70 /  40  30  30  40
Gage OK           81  56  87  66 /  10   0  10  40
Ponca City OK     79  58  82  66 /  80  10   0  20
Durant OK         90  71  89  71 /  30  60  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ008-012-013-017>020-
     023>025-027-038.

TX...None.
&&

$$

23/30/23


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