Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261622 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1222 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Light rain chances will be maintained through Tuesday, with plenty of dry breaks, and cool temperature. Widespread rain is likely Thursday with low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An active polar jet pattern with ties to frontogenesis near the surface, and an embedded shortwave trough approaching in the mid- levels will provide the chance for precipitation on and off through tonight. Forcing for ascent is mainly confined to the lower levels, so despite plenty of moisture, precipitation will still remain generally light. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The chance for light rain remains as the subtropical jet stream merges with its northern counterpart, keeping the Ohio Valley in a favorable region for broad ascent. A return to zonal flow should keep the region dry on Wednesday with some moderation in temperature. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A robust low pressure system with origins as a deep plains trough, in combination with a strengthening polar jet stream with coincident frontogenesis in the low levels, and possibly a tropical moisture influence has the potential to arrive Thursday and bring widespread rain chance. There still lies plenty of uncertainty in the positioning of this system and its expected forecast impacts. High pressure is expected for the majority of Halloween weekend, with a substantial drop in temperature. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... North to northwest flow over the area coupled with a weak trough over the area will continue to allow for IFR and below cigs across the area. Some light rain will mix in at times through the TAF period as well. High pressure to the west and to the northeast will dictate a more stagnant pattern in place. Thus, expect the low decks to persist likely beyond the TAF period. Winds will be relatively light through the period as well. .Outlook... Restriction chances continue through Tue, and again Thu/Fri, with the next low pressure systems. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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