Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 220843
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
143 AM PDT Sun May 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warmer conditions will continue through Tuesday with north
breezes each afternoon, then temperatures peak on Wednesday with
highs at least 90 degrees for most western Nevada valleys. The
next weather system should approach the west coast Thursday
leading to gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and a few showers
toward the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through Monday Night)...

More outdoors-friendly weather is in store today and Monday with
occasional mid-high level cloud cover, as we remain in a dry
northwest flow aloft between a low pressure system moving across
the northern Rockies and a high pressure ridge off the west coast.

Temperatures will continue warming up with highs today well into
the 70s for lower elevations, and 60s to near 70 for Sierra
valleys--just a bit above average for this point in May. By
Monday, highs are poised to push above 80 degrees for some lower
elevation sites and above 70 for Sierra valleys. Breezes mainly
from the north will continue today with afternoon gusts up a bit
to the 20-30 mph range for west central NV, then becoming lighter
on Monday. MJD

.LONG-TERM (Tuesday Through Sunday)...

Not much to speak of at the start of the long-term. The warming
trend will be in progress as ridging builds over the western
CONUS. Light north to northeast winds and highs in the
lower/middle 80s across much of western Nevada and Lassen county;
70s in the Sierra valleys.

Wednesday, hot temperatures take aim over the region. Blended
model guidance`s most likely high temperature at Reno airport ties
the daily record of 92 degrees. One limiting factor to us reaching
or exceeding record highs is both high cirrus clouds coupled with
diurnally driven convective clouds over Mineral/Lyon/Churchill
which may advect northward during the warmest hours of the day.
This is simply a caveat as to why we could be closer to 88-90 in
some areas versus 90-94. It`s still going to be hot (for late May)
for many of us, so be sure to keep hydrated. Guidance shows a
very deep mixed layer through 10k feet AGL, likely causing any
lone shower development to evaporate and fall as virga over
Mineral/Lyon/Churchill counties; although this could create some
locally gusty winds if this occurs. Some very low-end PoPs
(5-15%) are in place to account for the slight possibility
something reaches the ground.

Thursday begins a breakdown of the ridge across the area (but
it`ll still be warm) and looks to be a transition day to a cooler,
breezier, and perhaps wetter pattern as we approach Memorial Day
weekend. The amplitude of the trough will play a strong role in
what we can expect to see across the region. Mean ensemble ECMWF,
GFS, and Canadian models bring precipitation into NE California
and northern portions of Washoe/Pershing counties on Friday,
increasing confidence to go above blended guidance for PoPs
(15-30%), which may be a little delayed in catching up with the
better ensemble agreement. Farther south, there is more
variability and thus lower confidence of whether this trough will
have much of an impact - but it`s not zero so sure to check the
updated forecasts occasionally this week, particularly if you have
any outdoor adventures planned for Memorial Day weekend.
Regardless of how far south the trough digs, be on the lookout for
some breezy winds on Thursday and Friday as this could lead to
boating and high profile vehicle impacts as well as aviation
turbulence. Cooler temperatures look to also arrive in time for
the extended weekend, giving us a reprieve from the 80s and 90s
during the days prior.

-Dustin

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through midweek with variable amounts
of mid-high level cloud cover. North breezes with afternoon-
evening gusts 15-20 kt are expected at the main terminals today,
followed by lighter wind speeds Monday-Tuesday. Winds increase
later in the week, especially Thursday-Friday. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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