Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 190957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
157 AM PST Wed Feb 19 2020


Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures will continue for the
latter half of the week. A weak system will bring chances for
light precipitation south of US-50 Friday evening into Saturday.
Another brush by system Sunday into Monday will bring chances for
light showers along the Oregon border with below normal
temperatures and breezy winds region-wide.



Not much to discuss this morning regarding the short term
forecast. Things look to be on track with a low pressure trough,
currently in the Gulf of Alaska, splitting into two weaker waves
today: one heads into the coast of British Columbia and the
second dives southward positioning itself off the California
coast. While this process takes place, the persistent high
pressure ridge will transition directly over the west coast
extending north, well into Canada. This translates to tranquil and
dry conditions for today into Thursday with a breezy easterly
flow across our region. High and low temperatures are forecast to
be around normal during this time.

By Friday, the aforementioned second wave becomes a weak cut-off
upper level low centered a few hundred miles west of Los Angeles.
Model guidance has this low moving onshore Friday night into
Saturday bringing chances for some light rain/snow showers to
areas mainly south of US-50 and into the eastern Sierra. The
timing of showers has been pushed back with most (if any)
activity late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Up to a
tenth of an inch (and that`s generous) is expected at this time
mainly for Mono County where upsloping could be a factor.
Everywhere else... you can look forward to cloudy skies, light
northeasterly winds, and slightly above normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...Saturday onward...

We`re watching a pair of weak systems for next weekend into the
early part of the following week. The first one heads south of the
region, as mentioned in the short term, with low end chances for
light rain and snow continuing for southern portions of Mono and
Mineral Counties into early Saturday. The second brushes by the
area to the north Sunday into Monday with light precipitation
possible mainly north of I-80. This system has been trending
drier, not what we want to see after the dry spell we have been
in! Ensemble probabilities of even 0.10" of liquid are only
around 15-30%, so while there is at least something, it`s not a
major storm by any stretch of the imagination.

What this system will do is bring an increase in winds with gusty
conditions possible Sunday into Monday. Anticipate typical impacts --
difficult travel for high profile vehicles, choppy lakes, and a
bumpy ride for aviation. Atypical impact for February: Fire
concerns. We have already seen two wildfires in the region this
month, so please exercise caution. Given how dry it has been,
would not be surprised to see some areas of blowing dust as well.

There is less agreement between operational and ensemble model
suites for the early part of next week. Previously, there was
support for a cold, but dry, backdoor cold front; but now there is a
battle between ridging along the west coast and general troughiness.
Taking a look at prototype ensemble cluster analysis, there isn`t
one camp that particularly stands out. Being how dominant the ridge
has been the past 6 or so weeks, will keep the forecast dry with
temperatures near normal.

There are no signals for major storms through the end of February,
but some signs are starting to show up that March could get more
active. Time will tell, but we`ll sure take what we can get after
this long dry stretch. -Dawn



VFR conditions continue with light winds. Generally, low level
winds will be easterly, with a southeast component aloft today
becoming southwesterly on Thursday. A few very light showers are
possible over the Sierra south of Tahoe Friday into Saturday.
While some mountain obscuration is possible going into the
weekend, IFR conditions are unlikely -- less than a 20% chance.


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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