Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 241548

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
848 AM PDT Sat Mar 24 2018


As advertised...isolated snow showers have made their way into
portions of western Nevada...mainly north of I-80. These showers
are dissipating as the forcing that drove them is weakening and
lifting to the east-northeast. A few showers remain in the
northern Sierra as well...mainly due to orographic forcing.

The first wave is moving east and weakening...but the main upper
low is getting closer. Snow showers associated with it should
begin to develop in northeast California this afternoon and work
their way south and east into the evening.

As late March it is difficult to accumulate snow in
the daytime hours much below 5500 feet due to warming of road and
ground surfaces. It is not impossible...just difficult. For areas
with plentiful sun this morning...high temperatures will rise into
the 40s in the lower valleys and 30s in the higher valleys. This
will warm road surfaces as well. Any additional accumulations in
the lower valleys of northeast California and western Nevada will
have to wait until this evening when that heating is lost.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 AM PDT Sat Mar 24 2018/


Snow showers, mainly across northeast California and in the Sierra,
could bring light snowfall accumulations along with periodic
travel concerns for the Tahoe Basin and northeast California into
Sunday morning. Drier weather returns next week, with much warmer
temperatures by mid to late next week.


An upper disturbance is moving into southern Oregon this morning,
with the entrance region of a 100+ kt jet streak moving over
northern California. This is providing lift for light snow/snow
showers with a frontal boundary over northeast California, far
northwest Nevada, and the northern Sierra. There are currently
some chain or snow tire restrictions in Plumas and Lassen Counties
due to snow on roads, and this could spread south to I-80 and
Highway 50 over the Tahoe crest this morning as the front sags

Deep forcing is expected to wane this morning as the disturbance
moves away from the region so precipitation will have to
increasingly rely on orographic enhancement. This is likely to
result in a drop off in snowfall totals east of the immediate
Sierra crest in the Tahoe Basin today. In any case, the main
threat for travel restrictions due to snow will be this morning
as the late March sun heats roads efficiently.

For western Nevada, the snow is expected to remain very light
this morning, with areas south of about I-80 possibly missing out
on snow altogether as weakening forcing allows the precipitation
band to fall apart. It will be breezy today, with rough boating
conditions on Pyramid Lake expected, especially by mid to late
afternoon as thermal gradients intensify.

Tonight, one last upper wave brings the threat for more travel
issues in the northern/central Sierra and northeast California.
While the main threat for snow showers will be in these areas,
a brief band of spillover into western Nevada will be possible
this evening wherever today`s frontal boundary lays up. NAM and
GFS simulations show this to be near Highway 50 but confidence in
this is only medium. In any case, the main upper forcing moves by
quickly to the north so spillover should still remain light.

Sunday, the main upper trough moves overhead, bringing the threat
for a few showers, especially with afternoon heating. Minimal
accumulations are expected, although areas that get heavier and
persistent (10-15 minutes or more) snow pellet showers could see
brief slushy accumulations. -Snyder

LONG TERM...Monday through the end of March...

The final week of March will have much quieter weather compared to
what we`ve seen so far this month. For Monday, a few very light snow
showers may occur near the Oregon border but the potential for any
snow showers south of US-50 into Mono County has decreased due to
a drier air mass spreading across the region and reduced upslope
flow. Temperatures will remain below average with highs in the
mid-upper 40s for lower elevations and 30s near the Sierra.

From Tuesday into next weekend, high pressure near the CA coast will
slowly move inland, then become flatter as the main storm track sets
up near the US-Canada border. The main change will be a return to
spring-like weather with highs warming from the 50s for valleys (40s
near the Sierra) on Tuesday to the upper 60s-lower 70s for valleys
(around 60 near the Sierra) for Thursday-Saturday. No precipitation
is expected with generally light winds from the north through midweek,
becoming west by Friday-Saturday. MJD


Breezy winds will continue through this evening with gusts to 30 kt
at the main terminals, while lighter winds are expected for Sunday.
A short period of snow could produce MVFR-IFR conditions and up to
an inch of accumulation at KTRK-KTVL this morning thru 16Z, with
similar conditions from another round of -SHSN later today mainly
from 21Z-04z. Lighter snow showers are possible at similar times
for KRNO-KCXP, and this evening for KMMH, but chances for anything
more than a dusting of short-lived accumulations are low. The
potential for mostly non-accumulating snow or pellet showers with
brief MVFR conditions continues overnight into Sunday, with this
activity winding down during the evening. MJD


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday CAZ071.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday CAZ070.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday CAZ072.



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