Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 170808
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
108 AM PDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A quiet weather pattern will be in place through the weekend as
high pressure strengthens across the region. Light winds, dry
conditions, and warming temperatures are expected. The forecast
remains dry with no signals for significant precipitation until
the middle of next week where there are some indications of a
pattern shift to a more unsettled and wetter scenario.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Light winds, dry conditions, and warming temperatures will be
in store heading into the weekend as upper level ridging
builds. The strengthening ridge across our area will allow
temperatures near season averages today to warm 5-8 degrees above
average while lows remain near normal. This means highs on Friday
afternoon will warm to the lower 70s across western Nevada while
Sierra valleys reach the mid to upper 60s. Light and generally
easterly flow will be in place through the week with weakening
valley inversions and improved mixing expected. Fuentes


.LONG TERM...Saturday onward...

The pseudo rex block pattern, with a trough over southern California
and a ridge over northern CA into the PacNW, begins to erode over
the weekend as the low begins to lift northeast with the ridge
shifting eastward as well. How this low fills and shifts eastward
could lead to various precipitation scenarios for the region Monday.
The GFS continues to be the most aggressive in bringing
precipitation from central to eastern Nevada, while the EC draws the
moisture into Utah, almost missing Nevada completely. Will
maintain slight chances for showers across southern Mono/Mineral
Counties into eastern Churchill County, but anticipate better
chances eastward.

We are still looking at a shift in the pattern across the Pacific
going into the final week of October with less amplification in the
jet stream potentially allowing for systems to reach the west coast.
The biggest question right now is how far south systems may reach
and the timing of these features as the trend has been delaying
these features. The EC has been fairly consistent moving the jet and
associated storm track into northern CA/southern Oregon and has less
ensemble spread, while the GFS has been bouncing around between this
region and farther north, well into the PacNW. For now, will
keep chances for precipitation for areas mainly north of I-80
Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures near normal. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and light easterly surface winds are expected through
the remainder of the week into the weekend. Gusty east winds,
with gusts exceeding 50 kts at times, continue over the Sierra
crest this morning. This will keep turbulence a concern from the
Sierra downwind into California. Winds should be decreasing aloft
through the day today, lessening turbulence issues. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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