Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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731
FXUS65 KREV 182224
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
224 PM PST Sat Jan 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

The weather remains quiet this weekend with considerable mid and
high clouds, generally light winds, and seasonable temperatures.
The next system arrives Tuesday and will provide modest mountain
snows, valley rain and snow showers, and gusty winds. The weather
pattern remains unsettled with additional systems possible late
next week and next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

No significant change to the forecast through Monday night.

High temperatures will increase to a few degrees above seasonal
averages with mid 40s to lower 50s expected for Sierra and western
Nevada valleys through Monday. Valley inversions will strengthen
for the next couple days before a system Tuesday scours them out.
Limited ventilation is expected in valleys Sunday and Monday with
at least some haze likely as pollutants and moisture remain trapped
below inversions.

High clouds will remain spread across the region and will increase
in coverage/density Sunday and Monday in association with a weak
upper wave. Increased moisture depth and the weak wave may combine
to bring a few light showers by Monday, mainly in the Sierra.
-Snyder

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through the end of January...

Models in good agreement on a progressive pattern across the Pacific
over the next 10-14 days. This favors a few fast moving systems to
impact the West Coast. Atmospheric river tools don`t show any big
moisture surges over the next week or so which gives some confidence
storms over the next week may not bring significant rain and snow
totals.

System for Tuesday remains on track with rain, snow, and strong ridge
winds reaching the northern Sierra early in the morning. Snow totals
don`t look overly impressive. The most likely forecast for now is
1-3 inches around the Tahoe Basin, 3-6 inches along the northern
Sierra Crest, and down to an inch or two for Mono County. High end
amounts in the ensemble guidance suggest roughly 4 inches around
the Tahoe Basin northward to western Lassen County and 8-12 inches
along the Sierra Crest north of Carson Pass. Winds are likely to
be the larger impact for western NV and the eastern Sierra; gusts
could reach 35-45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph not out of the
question in the usual wind prone areas along US-395 and I-580. A
few light rain and snow showers are possible with an outside
chance of minor accumulations in the Carson Range foothills and
Virginia City.

Ensembles show another system reaching the Pacific Northwest
Thursday-Friday, with some light rain/snow possible for Lassen-Modoc
and northern Washoe Counties. There is some agreement in a third
system arriving Sunday-Monday with the main focus for precipitation
on the northern Sierra.

Looking well ahead, ensembles maintain the progressive pattern into
the final week of January which keeps the door open for weak to
moderate storms to move through the region. Brong

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR with abundant high clouds through Monday. Winds will be mainly
light for valleys and on approach to terminals. The next disturbance
isn`t anticipated until Tuesday; the system will bring gusty winds,
mtn wave turbulence, and areas of LLWS beginning late Monday night.
Mountain snow with IFR conditions and light valley rain are possible
Tuesday and Tuesday night. -Snyder

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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