000
FXUS65 KREV 291014
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
314 AM PDT Sun Mar 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

Light rain and snow showers are expected today with a slight
chance for thunder this afternoon. For the last few days of
March, a warming trend is expected mainly from I-80 southward, but
weak weather systems will bring a few showers and limit the
warming for northeast California and northwest Nevada. Mild
temperatures and mainly dry conditions continue into the first few
days of April.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Currently an area of light rain is moving across west central NV
while a broken area of light snow moves into the northern
Sierra/northeast CA. A bit of snow accumulation is noted on web
cameras from Kingvale to Donner Summit, otherwise, roads are wet
around the Tahoe basin, Truckee, and northeast CA. These
conditions are likely to continue through this morning, producing
a bit of slick or slushy conditions over the main Sierra passes
but no major travel issues otherwise.

By this afternoon as the trough axis moves across Nevada,
scattered rain and pellet showers are likely to develop, with snow
showers above 5500-6000 feet possibly producing a quick inch or
two mainly on unpaved surfaces near the Sierra crest, and less
than one half inch for the Tahoe basin and along higher portions
of US-395 in Mono County. Instability still looks to be just
sufficient to produce brief isolated lightning across west central
NV southward to Mineral County between 1-6 PM. Overall precip
totals will be modest, generally ranging from a trace to localized
amounts around 0.10".

After the shower activity winds down this evening, a zonal flow
aloft sets up across CA-NV from Monday through Tuesday night. The
main storm track is expected to keep most precip in the Pacific
Northwest, but bands of moisture will keep the potential for light
rain at times for the Surprise Valley and far northwest NV for the
final two days of March. In these locations, temperatures will
remain cool, with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees. Farther
south, some moderation from the long stretch of below average
temperatures is finally on the way. Highs will climb into the
50s-lower 60s for most lower elevations (40s near the Sierra)
Monday, and mainly 60s (50s near the Sierra) for Tuesday. Breezy
conditions are expected both days, with peak gusts of 30-35 mph
mainly from US-50 northward, with locally higher gusts near 40 mph
possible on Monday north of Gerlach. MJD

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next weekend...

The extended forecast has become really frustrating, due to the
harsh flip-flopping in the placement of the ridge over the West
Coast. This is really disappointing for the ensembles, as the
models had been settling in on good agreement for the warmer
solution just 24 hours ago. The GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles have
now completely flipped to a cooler solution for next week, keeping
a trough over the interior West and pushing the ridge axis just
off the Pacific Coast. We have lowered temperatures for the Wed-
Sat timeframe, but keeping it in the middle ground for now--not
as cold as the colder members.

Either way, the forecast looks to be mostly dry overall, with the
blocking ridge off the Pacific Coast keeping any major storm
systems from moving into the Sierra and western Nevada. It`s
possible that if the models keep trending with deeper troughing
over the Pacific Northwest, we will see some period of light
showers as weak disturbances/cold fronts move through the Pacific
Northwest. Expect to see high temperatures next week in the 60s
across the western NV valleys with 50s in the Sierra and northeast
California. But, with the recent model trends we might have to
lower temperatures even more. -Hoon

&&

.AVIATION...

Low pressure will continue to bring scattered showers across the
Sierra and western Nevada today, with light slushy snow early this
morning at KTRK, KTVL, and KMMH. MVFR CIG/VIS will continue
through the morning hours with icing.

By this afternoon expect to see increasing scattered snow pellet
showers across western Nevada and the Sierra. We will even have a
slight chance of thunder this afternoon and evening in west
central Nevada with the heaviest showers. Light snow accumulations
will be possible above 6000 ft in the Sierra (KTRK, KTVL, KMMH),
but generally less than one inch.

For the next few days, weak weather disturbances moving through
the Pacific Northwest will bring light rain/snow well to the
north and east of Reno. -Hoon

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno