586
FXUS65 KREV 192150
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
250 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Several areas of low pressure will affect the region this week,
bringing cooler temperatures, afternoon breezes, and a 10-20% chance
of afternoon showers and storms through the upcoming work week.
We`ll see a gradual warming trend with chances for showers into
Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Light showers are currently ongoing along a slowly moving stationary
front draped across north-central Nevada. These showers are
currently affecting areas along and north of I-80 from east of
Susanville to Lovelock. Most of the region will remain dry this
afternoon and evening outside of these showers.

Heading into Monday, a shortwave trough positioned off the southwest
coast of California will merge with the longwave trough over the
Great Basin, which will cool temperatures and bring chances for
showers (15-20%) over the Eastern Sierra crest. High temperatures on
Monday will be in the upper 60s across western Nevada and northeast
California, with 60s in the Sierra. Brief height rises will lead to
dry and mild conditions on Tuesday, with near-average temperatures
likely across the region.

Behind this shortwave ridge, another trough will push south along
the west coast Wednesday, increasing chances for showers along the
Oregon border (15-30% chance) and enhanced breezes across western
Nevada, with gusts approaching 30 mph. As the trough axis swings
across the Great Basin late Wednesday, we`ll see cooler temperatures
and mainly dry conditions Thursday, with highs in the upper-60s to
low-70s across western Nevada and northeast California, and 60s in
the Sierra. The only exception to these dry conditions will be a 10-
15% chance of showers across the Eastern Sierra.

Into Memorial Day weekend, ensembles continue to show the
aforementioned trough deepening over central-southern
California/Nevada. How deep this trough becomes will direct how far
south precipitation chances come. Blended model guidance over the
last few runs has moved these chances around, from as far south as
the Eastern Sierra, to as far north as the Oregon border. As of now,
NBM guidance has most of the shower/thunderstorm chances (10-25%)
remaining closer to the Oregon border.

-Johnston

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions are expected through the evening, except for
  some showers north of I-80 between Susanville and Lovelock.
  Winds will remain 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts through the
  evening.

* Several troughs will bring periods of cooler conditions and
  chances for showers throughout the week. Expect VFR conditions
  outside of possible showers along the Eastern Sierra on Monday
  afternoon and evening.

-Johnston

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$