Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 041041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
441 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023

The axis of yesterday`s trough continues to trek east across the
Northern Plains this morning, with a final band of energy trailing
in on the western side into western WY this morning. This energy
continues to produce some light shower activity right along the
ID/WY border. Models quickly take this energy to the southeast and
out of the state by sunrise this morning, which should bring this
round of showers to an end. Northwesterly flow will continue
across the state today, which may help produce some light
orographic showers this afternoon along the Tetons, Winds, and
Wyomings, but these will be very isolated in nature. Most areas
will otherwise start to clear out this morning, with a mostly
sunny and cool autumn day in store. Overnight, slight warming
aloft will be balanced by the clear skies to allow temps to fall
near this morning`s lows, with low 30s east of the Divide and mid
to upper 30s east. Thursday will see cooler temps as cooler air
filters in from the north again. This will be accompanied by
another weak impulse wrapping around the back end of the trough
out east. Models still having a tough time with resolving the
feature and agreeing on any precip as this passes, so will
continue with chances late Thursday and Thursday night, generally
along the Bighorn Range. This system also complicates the low
temperature forecast Thursday night, as this would be the night
closest to the cold pool aloft, translating to temps near freezing
for most areas east of the Divide. The main problem is how much
cloud cover will be remaining from the impulse to insulate at the
same time. Right now, it looks that there will be a 2 to 3 hour
window of clear skies, thus lows Thursday night would reach
freezing for a large portion of central WY. Will need to keep an
eye on this area in further updates for the potential for the
first freeze east of the Divide.

The remainder of the weekend looks warmer and dry as ridging
builds across the Rockies. Temperatures will recover back into the
60s and 70s into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 439 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of the
TAF period. KJAC continues to carry low clouds and MVFR/IFR
ceilings, but should see more clearing through the first few hours
of the TAF period. Elsewhere, clouds have mostly cleared out
overnight. Winds increase slightly during the afternoon Wednesday,
with some terminals seeing gusts of 20 to 25 knots. By sunset
winds decrease across all terminals, becoming mainly light
overnight. A weak system looks to clip the northern portion of the
state Wednesday evening, bringing a small chance of VCSH to KWRL
by 03Z Thursday. Showers clear out by Thursday morning, with all
terminals seeing VFR conditions into the end of the TAF period.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.


Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Rain comes to an end today, with gradually clearing skies for most
locations. Moisture conditions remain elevated through the
upcoming weekend, with humidity holding above 25 percent. Some
gusty winds are expected today, mainly for highest elevations, and
across the wind corridor from Rock Springs to Casper. Gusts this
afternoon could reach 20 to 25 mph at times in those locations.
Lighter winds return Thursday and continue into the weekend.





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