Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 091900
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
200 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

Key Messages:
1. Residual flooding continues through this evening.
2. Cool, cloudy and light rain chances through mid week.
3. Temps increase, additional rain chances by the weekend.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

A cold front has cleared the area early this afternoon. Strong
low level cold air advection was occuring behind the front, along
with a thick area of stratus that extends up into Nebraska and
Iowa. Temperatures were generally in the 40s to middle 50s with
breezy north winds. Heavy rainfall that occurred across portions
of the area early this morning will lead to residual flooding
through the evening hours.

Given the low level northerly flow, it tends to be difficult to
clear out low stratus in these situations, therefore cloud cover
will likely stick around for most of the night. Therefore temps
will drop into the 40s across the area tonight, with the potential
for a few upper 30s across the northeast CWA, where there could
briefly be some partial clearing by morning.

The upper level pattern remains zonal for Monday, with a quick
moving shortwave arriving by mid morning which could provide the
area with sprinkles or a light rain shower. Not expecting much if
any rainfall amounts with this system. It will likely remain
cloudy during the day, which will tend to keep high temps in the
upper 50s to around 60 with northerly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

A slightly better chance for clearing occurs Monday night,
therefore low temps in the upper 30s to low 40s will be common
again. Can not rule out a few colder readings if we can indeed
clear out, and will need to monitor this potential as winds will
be much lighter which could lead to patchy frost in valleys and
sheltered areas.

Another shortwave moves through the area on Tuesday. A decent, phased
upper level jet structure may provide more lift for a higher
coverage of showers on Tuesday, especially across southwest
portions of the area. Instability appears lacking for any
thunderstorms. Another cool day is expected with highs around 60.

High pressure builds overhead Wednesday and Thursday which should
lead to higher chances for sunshine, however highs in the 60s will
still be common. The upper level pattern turns more northwesterly
by the weekend which may lend itself to higher precip potential
along with some moderation in temps as the low level flow turns
more southerly. Models still differ quite a bit over the weekend
therefore confidence remains low at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

IFR ceilings are likely this afternoon at the TAF sites however
ceilings should improve to MVFR this evening. MVFR ceilings will
likely persist through the overnight hours and into Monday
morning. Northerly winds will continue through the period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield


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