Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 082033
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
333 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

No real forecasting concerns this evening with a decent enough cap
in place and plenty of dry air distributed within the troposphere.
The once exception could be across the eastern Ozarks, namely east
of Highway 63, where the cap is less prevalent and mid-level
moisture is a hint better. There also appears to be a lingering
lobe of vorticity at 500 mb near St. Louis, perhaps coinciding
with a remnant MCV that moved through the region earlier this
morning. Some convective-allowing models (CAMs) suggest a period
of heavy rainfall overnight along the Mississippi River where the
RAP indicates a decent axis of moisture convergence below
relatively weak upper-level flow. As the low-level jet noses
across central Missouri into the mid-Mississippi Valley tonight,
heavy rainfall may be of concern just east of our CWA. Overnight
temperatures will only cool into the low-to-mid 70s.

For Sunday, the main forecasting concern will be heat. With 850-mb
temperatures around 22-24 C mixing down to the surface,
low-to-mid 90s seems like a safe bet for the region, and with dew
points in the 70s across far western Missouri and eastern Kansas,
heat index values will push into the triple digits. No
thunderstorm activity is anticipated Sunday afternoon with short-
term guidance maintaining a stout cap.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Next week continues to look like a wet and unsettled period.
Showers and thunderstorms may return to the region by Monday
afternoon as a shortwave digs toward the western Great Lakes and
drags a weak cold front along the I-70 corridor. This front could
be the focus for some scattered thunderstorm activity from Ft.
Scott, Kansas to Salem, Missouri. South of this front,
temperatures will again be hot with highs in the mid 90s and heat
index values nearing triple digits.

Tuesday through Saturday may feature numerous chances for
widespread rainfall across southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri as the surface front remains draped across our CWA
beneath weak upper-level flow. With several shortwaves progged to
eject out of the Central Plains, and the low-level jet coming and
going throughout the week, confidence is increasing that the
region will see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Flooding concerns may begin to ramp up by mid-week wherever
multiple rounds of rain occur; and there may be some flash
flooding concerns as well given the weak flow aloft and humid air
mass in place.

Temperatures next week will feature daily highs near 90 and
overnight lows near 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Skies will quickly clear from west to east this afternoon and into
the evening as drier air begins to work into the region. All
regional terminals are expected to return to VFR conditions by
this evening, which will continue through Sunday afternoon.

Surface winds will be from the south between 10-15 kts this
afternoon. Occasional gusts to 20-25 kts will be possible at the
JLN and SGF terminals before winds diminish tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albano
LONG TERM...Albano
AVIATION...Albano


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