Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 192038
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
338 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019

Cooler and dry conditions prevailed over our forecast area this
afternoon as high pressure continues to build into the central US
behind the cold front that moved across our area early this
morning.

To our west the next system to impact our area is making quick
progress eastward over the southwest US with precipitation
already breaking out over the western Texas Panhandle and eastern
Colorado. As the upper trough moves east into the Four Corners
region, a warm front will lift northward across the Red River
Valley Monday morning and continue northward toward the OK/KS
border during the afternoon. As moisture lifts up and over the
warm front, storms will develop and move rapidly northeast toward
southeast Kansas and western Missouri by late afternoon and early
evening. While the more intense storms are expected further
southwest in the warm sector of this system, we will need to
closely monitor storms moving our way for severe and heavy
rainfall potential.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019

As the warm front continues to lift northward across our area late
Monday night into Tuesday morning, we will be in the warm sector
of the storm system with storms developing to our west along a
dryline over central or eastern OK during the afternoon. Strong upper
level support will be available for organized convection as the
upper level trough will be negatively tilted. There will also be
an elevated risk for flooding over our western counties,
especially in those areas receiving rain on Monday. Will keep the
Flash Flood Watch going over our southeast Kansas counties for
Monday night and Tuesday.

Through the rest of the week, the subtropical high over the
southeast U.S. will build northwest into the Ozarks as the upper
trough over the western US digs further south toward the Baja.
This will keep a fairly persistent southwest flow aloft over the
region and set the stage for continued intermittent storm activity
as upper level disturbance interact with nearly stationary fronts
over the Midwest. So overall warmer and wet conditions will
continue through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019

Scattered to locally broken 025-035 clouds hanging around this
afternoon will diminish this evening. VFR conditions are then
expected, but have included a tempo group for fog at TAF sites as
some model guidance suggests shallow fog developing late tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...Flash Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
     for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Titus


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