Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 161627

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1127 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Key Messages:

1. Pleasant conditions today.

2. Additional thunderstorm chances late Tuesday into Wednesday.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible.

3. Cooler upcoming weekend with additional thunderstorm chances.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Surface high pressure slides into the region today. Expect
pleasant weather with dry conditions, lower humidity, and plenty
of sunshine. Afternoon highs will reach into the middle to upper
70s. Clouds slowly build into the region overnight, with lows in
the 50s areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Tuesday-Thursday: Upper level zonal flow will support a quick
moving shortwave late Tuesday into Wednesday. A return of
southerly winds on Tuesday will allow a return of a warmer and moist
airmass. Most of Tuesday will be dry with highs in the lower 80s
and breezy south winds. By late Tuesday, model guidance is in
fairly good agreement that scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop along the nose of a strong low-level jet. Modest
instability and shear may be enough to support a few strong to
severe thunderstorms. The highest chances for this activity
appears to setup to the northwest of our area. However, we will
continue to monitor hi-res guidance for additional details. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards in the
strongest thunderstorms overnight Tuesday. This is highlighted by
the SPC Marginal Severe Weather Outlooks Tuesday and Wednesday.
Localized pockets of heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out, but the
flooding threat remains low.

Lingerings showers and thunderstorms should dissipate late Wednesday
morning. Another couple of warm days are expected on Wednesday
and Thursday with highs in the middle 80s. Most locations remain
dry through Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday night, a weak
shortwave may provide enough forcing for some additional showers
and a few thunderstorms. Overall, rain chances may remain sparse
for most areas Wednesday into Thursday as a result of mid-level
height rises and lack of adequate forcing. Gusty southerly winds
will accompany the warm weather on Thursday into Friday.

Friday-Sunday: As the weekend approaches, a broad upper level
trough approaches from the west. Model solutions vary on potential
weekend rain chances. Nonetheless, ensemble guidance does suggest
at least some rain chances exist across the region through the
weekend. This is further supported by the WPC Clusters QPF
analysis. Further attention in future forecasts will be needed to
analyze a severe potential Friday into Saturday. While it appears
strong shear and some forcing will be present, adequate
instability remains a question mark at this time.

Cooler temperatures will filter in behind the frontal passage
Friday into Saturday. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be below
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Uncertainty remains on
if and where the frontal passage stalls out. This could result in
additional rain chances through the end of the weekend if the
frontal passage stalls over the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

VFR conditions will persist through at least tonight. There is
potential for a decaying cluster of thunderstorms to move in from
the west Tuesday morning. Considerable uncertainty exists with
this potential, so kept any mentions of showers and thunderstorms
to prob30 groups at this time.




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