039
FXUS63 KSGF 151140
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch is in effect through 4 PM as additional rounds
  of showers and thunderstorms move through the area. A
  localized risk for heavy rainfall and isolated strong to
  severe storms will accompany this system.

- Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs in the 50s to 60s.
  Expect gusty northerly winds up to 30-35 mph beginning
  Thursday evening and lasting through Friday evening.

- Increasing confidence in patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze,
  Saturday and Sunday mornings as lows dip into the 30s. The
  highest confidence is on Sunday morning across portions of the
  eastern Ozarks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The main feature of note in the region is a rapidly decaying
thunderstorms complex over northeast Oklahoma as evidenced by
warming cloud tops, the main line separating from the trailing
stratiform region, and an overall sloppier presentation of the
leading edge. Despite RAP analysis depicting ~1000 J.kg MUCAPE
with 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear ahead of the complex, it
appears to be straying too far from large-scale ascent
associated with the mid-and upper-level low lagging behind over
Colorado and the Rocky Mountain front range. The HRRR has really
struggled to initialize this complex each run. The 03Z RRFS, on
the other hand, handled its presentation and evolution well. It
has the complex completely dissipating by the time it reaches
southwest Missouri. Given current radar trends, this seems the
most likely scenario.

Otherwise, the mesolow associated with the complex has initiated
low-level warm air advection across the Ozarks, leading to a
northward advancement of a previously stationary boundary. This
is leading to scattered light showers across the area, which are
expected to lift north with the front through the early morning.


Flood Watch in effect through 4 PM:

Another complex of storms is currently over the Red River Valley
as another shortwave impulse interacts with the frontal boundary
over the area. This complex is expected to follow the same
progression as the first, bringing mostly remnant showers and
thunderstorms to our area late this morning.

The Flood Watch remains in effect northwest of I-44 until 4 PM
this afternoon to account for these repeated rounds of showers
and storms. However, with a trend more towards remnant
stratiform, any flooding should remain quite localized, sticking
to previously saturated areas that see some of the heavier rain
today. If trends continue to depict lighter rainfall, the Flood
Watch may be canceled early. That said, much of the area should
see at least some light rain today (70-99% chance). The only
areas that may remain dry is confined to Oregon and surrounding
counties (50-80% chance to remain dry).


Low (<5% chance) for a stray strong to severe storm today:

With either of the two complexes this morning, there is still a
low-end chance for a stray strong to severe thunderstorm, though
chances seem quite low given current trends and very meager
low- and mid-level lapse rates.

Despite no official SPC Outlook for us this afternoon, there is
still a low (<5% chance) for a stray strong to severe
thunderstorm, especially if the thunderstorm complexes and
associated stratiform rain/clouds sufficiently break apart this
morning. The 00Z runs of the HREF/REFS ensemble and RAP
deterministic do suggest lingering instability of around 1000
J/kg beneath 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear. The main hindrance
is synoptic support remaining to our northeast in the Ohio River
Valley, and to the southwest in the Red River Valley.
Additionally, forecast soundings show a slight capping inversion
at around 800 mb, which may limit over development and strength
of potential afternoon storms.

That said, continue to expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon (20-50% chance). Any stronger storm
that can develop would be capable of damaging wind gusts up to
50-60 mph.


Strong cold front moves through this evening:

The main cold front is forecast to quickly move through from
west to east between 5 PM and midnight this evening. With the
passage, winds will sharply shift to northwesterly, increasing
to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Additionally, due to
the remnant meager instability ahead of the front (but slight
capping aloft), a thin line of gusty low-topped showers may
be associated with the frontal passage (50-80% chance). These
could bring gusts briefly up to 30-40 mph.

The cold front will usher in much cooler air, with lows tonight
in the 40s, and highs in the lower to middle 50s Friday. Given
remnant clouds and strong cold air advection from gusty winds up
to 30-35 mph, some areas may even struggle to reach 50 F on
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, possible this weekend:

As the cold front dives through the Gulf, a rather abnormal high
pressure system (~99.5th percentile for this time of year) will
move through our region over the course of the weekend. This
will keep highs cooler (well actually quite seasonable) in the
60s Saturday and Sunday. With calmer winds and clear skies
beneath the high, though, lows will be colder, dropping into the
30s. This will bring a frost potential both Saturday and Sunday
mornings, but especially Sunday morning when winds are forecast
to be calmest, and where the eastern Ozarks are forecast to
range from 30-34 F.

Current Frost probabilities (using <35 F as a proxy) are 15-40%
along and north of I-44, and in the eastern Ozarks, on Saturday
morning. Then, a 50-95% chance east of Highway 5 on Sunday
morning.

Current Freeze probabilities (<32 F) are only pockets of 5-10%
Saturday morning (mainly in valleys). Then, a 20-50% chance in
the eastern Ozarks Sunday morning.

For some context, the average first frost date for the eastern
Ozarks ranges from Oct. 10-15, while the average first freeze
data ranges from Oct. 17-22. So while we have had quite warm
temperatures September and the first half of October, the first
frost/freeze is actually coming around right on time in terms of
climatology.


Temperatures quickly rebound to above normal into next week:

Those fall-like temperatures will not last long, though, as
global ensembles are in pretty good agreement of a ridge
amplifying over the region in response to a deep low digging
into the western CONUS. Temperatures are forecast to warm into
the 70s on Monday, reaching around 80 F by Wednesday. CPC agrees
with the current forecast, giving us a 70-80% chance of above
normal temperatures from October 20-24.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A broken band of light rain showers is currently on radar in the
vicinity of SGF and JLN. Little in the way of lightning and
thunder has been observed, so precipitation moving forward is
most likely to be light rain with only a low chance (~30%
chance) of embedded or isolated thunderstorms. Any storms that
do occur would bring lightning, brief heavy downpours, and wind
gusts up to 40-50 kts as hazards.

Otherwise, low variable low stratus is also across the region,
of which some has built down to dense fog at BBG. Low cigs are
expected for the first few hours of the TAF period before a dry
slot lifts cigs above MVFR until a cold front moves in around
22-04Z.

5-10 kt winds will be shifting from southeasterly to
southwesterly, with gusts up to 20 kts at times, until the
aforementioned cold front arrives. This cold front will bring a
sharp wind shift to northwesterly, increasing speeds to 13-18
kts with gusts up to 23-28 kts. Cigs also have a 70-90% chance
to at least briefly decline to IFR, hanging around for the rest
of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055>057-
     066>069-077>080-088-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price