Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221905

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
205 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Early this morning...surface high pressure was centered across the
Mississippi Valley while an upper level ridge was situated across
the Rockies. The surface high will drift slowly eastward today as
the upper ridge continues to build into the region.

With the high moving eastward...winds will veer around to the
south across the entire region by late morning. Afternoon highs
should range from the upper 50s to mid 60s across the region.
Clouds will also begin to increase in advance of an upper level
wave moving through the northwest flow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

This next system will begin to affect the area very early on
Friday morning. Rain will affect mainly Central Missouri through
Saturday morning but amounts are expected to be light. We then
get about a 24 hour break before the unsettled weather begins to
affect the region.

A longwave trough will dig southward along the west coast over
the weekend and be situated over the Rockies by Sunday evening.
This will push the upper level ridge off to the east while placing
the area into southwest flow aloft setting up lee cyclogenesis
over eastern Colorado and bringing low level Gulf moisture into
the region.

The upper trough will continue to dig into the desert southwest
through mid week keeping the area in southwest flow. Meanwhile...
as impulses move through this flow...a surface front will become
established SW-NE across the area that will bring periods of
showers and occasional thunderstorms beginning Sunday morning
through the remainder of the forecast period. The heaviest rain is
expected to occur from Monday night through Wednesday morning.
This pattern will need to be monitored closely for possible heavy
rain and potential flooding.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

South winds will be gradually increasing with deepening low
pressure over the central Plains. Have included low level wind
shear late tonight also. Should remain VFR on ceilings and
visibility but expect cloud cover increase late in the period as
moisture advection increases ahead of approaching low.




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