Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 031036
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
536 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures will continue across the region
through the weekend and into early next week.

2. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon
and evening, mainly along and west of I-49. No severe weather is
expected, but some localized heavy rainfall will be possible with
the stronger storms.

3. A cooler and drier airmass may move into the region during the
middle of next week.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

The showers and thunderstorms that were over our far SE Kansas
counties have since pushed out of our area, leaving a quiet, dry
CWA during the early morning hours. Some scattered high level
clouds can be seen on Infrared satellite imagery, and temperatures
are expected to remain in the low to mid 60s across the area
through the remainder of the overnight hours.

A continuation of the summertime pattern can be expected today, as
an upper level high will once again allow for afternoon
temperatures to climb into the upper 80s, and even reaching the
low 90s in some areas.

A shortwave pushing through southeast KS will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon. The better chances
(30-50%) will occur mainly along and west of I-49, bringing up to
0.5-0.6 inches of rainfall in some areas. A few strong storms
will be possible, leading to the potential for localized heavier
rainfall amounts, however no severe weather is expected at this
time.

Otherwise, expect a similar set-up for tonight, with overnight
lows in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Models show an Omega-like pattern persisting through the
beginning of next week, allowing for above normal temperatures in
the upper 80s and low 90s on a daily basis through Tuesday. Can`t
rule out daily afternoon showers/storms (typical in these
summertime patterns) as daytime heating destabilizes the
atmosphere. However daily chances remain around or below 20%,
leading to lower confidence.

By midweek, this pattern looks to break down as a backdoor cold
front pushes through the region. This will bring drier and cooler
weather, bringing afternoon temperatures back down to near normal
(lower 80s).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
There is a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening, however the better chances remain west of
the TAF sites. Decided against mentioning in the TAFs due to the
lower confidence. Otherwise, expect light east-southeast winds,
remaining below 10 knots through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto


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