Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251626
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1126 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday Night)

The main focus this forecast regards the active weather expected
from Monday morning through Tuesday night. We carefully examined
the risk for any wintry precipitation accumulation for areas of
the Osage Plains. Ultimately our conclusion is that there are too
many negatives in place for anything too impactful across extreme
southeast Kansas and far western Missouri. Areas further west
into Kansas and out of Springfield`s forecast area will have much
better chances for receiving impacts regarding snow or ice
accumulations.

Today will be relatively quiet across the region as low cloud
cover persist. Temperatures will slowly warm into the upper 40s to
middle 50s in most locations. A light northeast breeze will
continue as a massive surface high sprawls out across the
northern Plains and upper Midwest.

For tonight, mostly dry weather is expected through at least
midnight as a large positively tilted upper level trough
approaches from the northwest. Areas of precipitation will
develop across the southern and central Plains, and potentially
move into southeast Kansas and portions of western Missouri well
after midnight.

A layer of warm air between 725 and 800mb is currently in place
across the southern Plains and into the Ozarks. It appears as
though this warm layer above freezing should persist across the
region through Tuesday night, limiting the risk for wintry
precipitation impacts. Near surface air due to daytime
precipitation and a relatively high sun angle will also mitigate
impacts from any mixed wintry precipitation that might develop
over the Osage Plains.

Further east, all rain is expected from Monday morning through
Tuesday night, and could really help reduce impacts from the
ongoing drought.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)

Rain and possibly some thunder will spread back into the area on
Wednesday and Thursday as a large upper level cutoff low pressure
system tracks somewhere near the Ozarks Region. This features will
have quite a bit of Gulf moisture available to produce widespread
rainfall. This will also help the ongoing drought conditions.

This feature will exit the region by Thursday evening allowing a
shot of cool air to replace it. Temperatures Thursday night into
Friday morning could reach the lower 30s and possibly the upper
20s if clouds can dissipate.

The upper levels remain active heading into the end of next week
as zonal to southwest flow quickly spreads back in helping to
moderate temperatures. It does appear as though the Gulf could be
shut down for a few days, allowing for a dry end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

MVFR ceilings will prevail across the area as light north to
northeasterly winds occur through into evening. Winds will begin
to increase out of the north to north east this evening into
Monday morning a head of an approaching upper level trough.
Precipitation will begin to develop and start to push into extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri late tonight then
across the rest of the area Monday morning. Most of the area will
see a cold rain, with IFR conditions expected. A winter mix will
be possible across portions of southeastern Kansas and west
central Missouri Monday morning, but this mix is expected to
remain north of the TAF sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise



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