Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 262313
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

A sfc ridge of high pressure extends from the Great Lakes to
northeast OK with quiet and dry weather in place. The ridge will
shift east tonight with winds gradually veering to the southeast
and eventually to the south for Wednesday. Temperatures will drop
quickly right after sunset this evening with radiational cooling
and have gone below guidance somewhat in our eastern counties.
Winds will pick up in our western counties with temperatures
likely becoming steady (or bouncing up and down) late tonight.

South winds will increase Wednesday with low pressure moving into
eastern CO and western KS. There are some concerns for fire
weather Wednesday with the increased winds and retreating dry air
mass. Some limited moisture return is expected for the western
cwfa where the highest winds are expected. Drier air will hold on
in the east. Overall will continue to advertise an elevated fire
weather risk in our hazardous weather outlook. Warm afternoon
temperatures are expected with highs well up into the 60s or lower
70s. We will see an increase in high clouds and some daytime
cumulus (maybe), but we should still see the warmup despite the
clouds.

Clouds will increase Wednesday night as low level winds/jet
continue to increase. The high res NAM really increases elevated
instability with an elevated mixed layer beginning to advect in.
GFS shows considerably less instability. In either case, can`t
rule out some elevated/high based showers-isolated thunder late.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

Thursday: A sfc wave of low pressure will slowly move east into
southern KS and OK. Will continue to see increased moisture
advection and more numerous showers and isolated tstms. The
overall better chances may shift north of the area for a time with
capping/eml over the area. It will remain warm with highs in the
60s and maybe touching 70 in some area if we get some sun.

Thursday night-Friday-Friday night: Active weather will continue
with the sfc wave finally lifting northeast through our area. Will
need to monitor vertical thermodynamic profiles for Friday. While
warm sector will be capped for a time (especially indicated by
the NAM), if the cap can weaken there may be a brief window for
some stronger storms with the passage of the sfc front Fri
afternoon-evening. The GFS looks the most bullish on weakly
capped (or briefly uncapped) instability ahead of the low/sfc
front and it may be an outlier. Low confidence at this point.

Saturday: High pressure starts to build in with a colder air mass.
Looks cloudy in the wake of the exiting system.

Sunday-Tuesday: Unseasonably cool/cold temperatures are expected
to continue into early next week. A frost or light freeze will be
possible Sat night/Sunday morning and again Sunday night/Mon
morning. Temperature look to rebound nicely by the end of this
period Mon-Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

The main forecasting concern will be for gusty winds beyond 12z.
By late tomorrow morning, the surface pressure gradient will begin
to tighten ahead of an approaching storm system. The net result
will be gusty southerly surface winds with frequent gusts between
25-35 MPH (expect lighter gusts at the BBG terminal).

Skies will remain fairly clear this evening, with perhaps some
high clouds moving out of eastern Kansas late tonight.
Nonetheless, VFR ceilings are expected through the entirety of
this TAF period.

Surface winds, while light and variable in the short term, will
begin to veer southerly overnight as surface high pressure exits
the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Albano



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