722
FXUS63 KSGF 150547
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1247 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warning through 1am Saturday. Southerly non-
  thunderstorm winds of 30-40 mph and gusts up to 65 mph for
  much of the area will continue. Wind Advisory with gusts up
  to 55 mph for far south- central MO.

- Red Flag Warning remains in effect for much of the area for
  EXTREME FIRE DANGER today into tonight due to strong winds and
  relative humidity values dropping into the 15-25% range.
  Highest fire danger will be late this afternoon through
  tonight along and west of Highway 65.

- Severe Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms expected to develop over
  the area this afternoon and expand in coverage as they move
  east. Highest severe chances and coverage is east of Highway
  65. Large hail to the size of baseballs, damaging winds to
  80mph and strong tornadoes are all potential hazards mainly
  east of Highway 65.

- Additional Fire: Fire weather concerns continue for Saturday
  through next Wednesday, with confidence highest in elevated to
  significant fire danger Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Synoptic Pattern and Current Conditions: A strong shortwave was
pushing through Kansas with a 977mb surface low across the
Nebraska/Kansas border. A dryline was currently located across
northeast Oklahoma, just east of Tulsa. Temps across the area
were in the upper 70s to lower 80s with RH in the 20-30 percent
range.

We are seeing showers and storms developing along the dryline
now across southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma and this
is the initial stages of development for the afternoon. This is
due to a extremely strong 500mb jet max (110kts) nosing into
the northeast Oklahoma. This strong lift and increase in ML CAPE
(500-1000 across eastern OK) will likely continue to attempt
development across eastern Oklahoma this afternoon. Steep lapse
rates, adequate instability and strong wind shear will likely
allow for storms to become severe rapidly by mid to late
afternoon and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued west
of Highway 65 until 7pm. There has been a western shift in the
severe chances today as 12z HREF guidance develops storms along
and just west of the I-49 corridor with a gradual increase in
strength during the afternoon and evening from Highway 65 and
east. The 18z sounding from SGF did show a well mixed
environment therefore thinking the tornado threat west of
Highway 65 should remain low with large hail and damaging winds
the main threat.

Of concern for later this evening is that slightly higher
dewpoints (around 55 to perhaps 60 across the far eastern
ozarks) may indeed arrive and increase instability across areas
along and east of Highway 65. This combined with increasing
shear will allow for discrete supercell storms. Latest STP
values of 4-8 east of Highway 65 is concerning as the
environment for strong tornadoes has shifted slightly farther
west back towards highway 65 and especially towards Highway 63.
Of further concern is that some of the CAMS are showing very
strong low level and mid level updraft helicity swaths that are
long tracked east of Highway 65. These could be long track
tornadic supercells if this materializes. The limiting factor at
the moment is that the LCL`s are currently high (1500-2000m).
However lower LCLs are across southeast Oklahoma and central
Arkansas and this may move in. If the LCLs remain high this
could limit the tornado threat and will monitor this closely.

Also, steep lapse rates and strong shear will promote large
hail to the size of baseballs. The other concern will be with
damaging winds up to 80mph as that jet moves in and allows for
extremely strong winds to mix down to the surface with the most
intense storms.

Storm timeline: Could see storms across the I-49 corridor in the
2-4pm timeframe, then the highway 65 corridor in the 4-7pm
timeframe, then the Highway 63 corridor in the 7-11pm
timeframe. These are rough estimates however confidence is high
that storms will be exiting by midnight if not before. Storm
motions will be very fast off to the east/northeast at 50-60mph.

Non thunderstorm winds and fire: Currently seeing wind gusts of
40-60mph along and west of the Highway 5 corridor where winds
are mixing down. Already seen brush/wildfires as well as
powerlines down in some areas. See fire section below for
further info on the extreme to historic fire danger. Non
thunderstorm winds will also increase behind the dryline with
gusts around 50mph. The High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory
continue through 1am.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

The Weekend: A trough will be slow to move through Saturday and
Sunday which leads to lower confidence in temperatures and any
precipitation chances.  Preciptiation chances still remain low
and less than 20 percent with the higher chances east of
Highway 63. High temps should be much closer to average if the
clouds and lower 850mb temps persist. Sunday looks much cooler
with highs in the 50s. Elevated fire danger is likely both days
due to gusty northwest winds and low humidity.

Next Week: Overall the ensembles suggest a large ridge
developing which will increase the southerly winds and 850mb
temps therefore well above average highs look to return along
with steady winds which will only increase the fire danger
again. We continue to see signals for significant fire danger
by Monday and Tuesday. This will be monitored closely over the
coming days. A shortwave looks to move in by Wednesday which
will bring the next chance of precip.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Gusty winds continue to push blowing dust into the area,
resulting in MVFR visibilities. Unsure when blowing dust will
improve, but thinking a gradual improvement through the night is
realistic. Winds will deacrease through the night into Saturday.
Some showers are possible Saturday into Saturday night, but TAF
sites are not favored to be in these showers at this time. Once
dust clears, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Today:

Southerly winds of 30-40 mph gusting to 50-65 mph are
currently occuring generally along and west of Highway 5.

Humidity values will fluctuate between 15-25% at times this afternoon
until a dry line brings much drier air in from the west this
afternoon into tonight. Note that the timing of driest air will
be unusual because the air is pushing into the area rather than
resulting from afternoon mixing. RH values of 10-20% will move
in behind the dryline tonight. Moisture then improves from the
NW tonight, but RH values should remain at 20-30% all night in
areas south of I-44 and winds will be gusty all night.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening along and ahead of the dry line, but the coverage is
expected to be limited for most of the area in the Red Flag
Warning. It`s quite possible that some areas in the warning
remain dry. If thunderstorms do form, fire crews should be
prepared for lightning and severe weather including very strong
winds, large hail (potentially up to baseball size), and
tornadoes.

Saturday and beyond: Saturday will be cloudy, but winds will
remain elevated (10-20 mph gusting to 20-30 mph) out of the SW
shifting to NW with MinRH values of 30-40%.

Fire danger looks likely early next week as well, with a dry/windy
pattern continuing. Even at 5-6 days lead time, fire danger is
looking Significant Monday/Tuesday. Definitely stay tuned to this
threat and keep tabs on daily updates.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 AM CDT early this morning for KSZ073-
     097-101.
     High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT early this morning for KSZ073-
     097-101.
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 AM CDT early this morning for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.
     High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT early this morning for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>095-101>103.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for MOZ096>098-
     104>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Titus
FIRE WEATHER...Titus