Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
550 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Water vapor imagery shows a deep trough that has pushed inland
from the west coast and moving into the Rockies. Remnants from
tropcial system Imelda were in the ARLATX region. Temperatures
across the area were in the lower to middle 70s as of 07z with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.

Main focus in the short term will be with showers and potential
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Longer term will be
focused on several additional shower and thunderstorm chances
during the upcoming weekend into next week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

For today, will see the tropical moisture increase from the south
today and will have more of the area with the potential for some
showers and thunderstorms as energy moves into the area from the
southwest ahead of the main trough in the Rockies. The best chance
of rainfall will be in the southwest portion of the CWA today
where the better synoptic scale lift will reside. Have capped the
thunder chances at 50 percent as more tropical like air mass moves
in, the instability will be more limited. However, there will be a
heavy rain risk with the showers that move in. The cloud cover and
better rain chances will keep temperatures cooler today than we`ve
had all week, with upper 70s possible in the southwest corner of
MO to the mid 80s in the northeast CWA.

Rain chances will lessen this evening and tonight, but with the
tropical air mass in place, lows will still be fairly warm in the
mid 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Heading into the weekend, the main upper level trough will affect
the northern plains into the upper Mississippi valley region, with
a surface front approaching from the northwest. The front and some
upper energy from the southern portion of the trough will interact
with high PWAT values from around 1.7in to over 2.0 in. to provide
the area with heavy rain chances. The higher PWAT values will be
over the northwest CWA and this area could see several inches of
rain. The front should push through the area Sunday night with a
much drier air mass moving back into the area behind the front.
Monday into Monday night look to be dry, but the moisture will
return on the back side of the high pressure by Tuesday, along
with additional shortwave energy to bring showers and
thunderstorms back to the area over the remainder of the long term

The rain chances and cloud cover over the weekend will keep
temperatures down in the low 80s Saturday and in the mid 70s to
low 80s Sunday. High pressure and cooler/drier air mass on Monday
will keep the lower temperatures in place. With additional rain
chances Tuesday-Thursday, temperatures will remain in the 70s and
80s for highs each day.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

For the 12z TAFS...Showers/storms with the tropical remnants now
shifting north into central AR and should be affecting the TAF
sites by late morning or towards midday. Expecting more numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms during the afternoon hours with
diminishing echoes by the evening. Expecting mostly VFR and MVFR
conditions through the period. Winds will be gusty during the late
morning through the afternoon.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.