Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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639
FXUS63 KSGF 150542
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1142 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Cloud cover has remained prevalent today in both the low levels
and upper levels of the atmosphere. While we are seeing radar
echoes develop across the region, these are mainly rooted with the
upper level cloud cover. Meanwhile, low level cold air advection
has persisted for much of the day and has resulted in steady or
slowly falling temperatures.

Heading into tonight, it is possible we see a few breaks in the
cloud cover. However, model cross sections indicate that most
areas will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy. Most of the night
should be dry, however isentropic upglide will begin to increase
late tonight as short wave energy crosses the central Plains. This
could result in a few areas of light snow developing close to dawn
across portions of southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri.
There will be low level dry air to overcome, thus it is quite
possible that light snow across that region holds off until
after sunrise.

There is a fairly large model spread in overnight lows tonight.
With plenty of clouds expected and cold air advection waning, we
decided to go pretty close to the mean of the models. This would
result in lows ranging from the middle 20s across central Missouri
to the lower 30s across far southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

An upper level trough digging across the central CONUS will be
responsible for a multi-hazard winter system Sunday into Monday.
The system will be supported by strong shortwave energy and
adequate moisture advection into the region. The system will be
responsible for two individual rounds of precipitation. The first
round will occur early Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. This
round will be followed by a second wave of energy Sunday night
into Monday. For this reason, a winter weather advisory will be in
effect for counties roughly north of Highway 60 Sunday morning
through Monday evening.

The first wave of precipitation will be characterized by strong
warm air advection ahead of the trough. This WAA will pave the way
for increased lift and moistening of the column. This will result
in the development of a band of precipitation across west central
Missouri into central Missouri Sunday morning. Initial onset of
the precipitation will begin as light snow for most of the area.
As warm air aloft pushes north along with the surface freezing
line, expect any precipitation that falls south of Highway 54 on
Sunday afternoon to become mostly rain. Confidence is increasing
that areas along and north of Highway 54 will see accumulating
snowfall on Sunday.

A dry slot then starts to overspread the region Sunday afternoon
into the evening hours over the saturated lower levels. This dry
slot will result in the loss of cloud ice and the dominant
precipitation type will be in the form of drizzle. While most of
southern Missouri will see light rain/drizzle, and the area across
central Missouri will see a transition from snow to freezing
drizzle by Sunday evening as cloud ice present is lost.

As the first wave exits east Sunday evening, another band of
precipitation will develop and spread northeast into the region
through the overnight hours Sunday into Monday. Given that the dry
slot will still be in place over the region Sunday night, it is
expected that the predominant precipitation type will be freezing
drizzle along and north of Highway 60. Given this potential, a
light glaze of ice (0.01 to 0.10 inches) is likely across portions
of the area. While elevated surfaces will be impacted first, it
is quite possible untreated roadways see impacts as overnight lows
drop towards the middle to upper 20s, and just above freezing
south of Highway 60 in south central Missouri.

As the trough sweeps through the region Monday and the system
pulls away to the east, it can be expected that light snow
continues along and north of Interstate 44 as cloud ice presence
returns and lift occurs in the deformation zone of the departing
low. Storm total snow amounts with both rounds are currently
expected to be in the 1 to 3 inch range across central Missouri,
with isolated amounts of 4 inches possible. Snow amounts elsewhere
across the Missouri Ozarks will range from a dusting to an inch,
with the higher amounts the farther north you go.

Given the combined impacts of snowfall and a glaze of ice, the
morning and evening commutes on Monday could see the greatest
impacts as the work week begins and schools are in session.
Confidence is highest in impact potential, while exact snowfall
and ice accumulations are medium confidence. There is still a bit
of uncertainty in the exact amounts as guidance continues to
struggle on cloud ice presence and the freezing line location.

As the system departs, cold air will be in place Monday and
Tuesday with highs topping out in the 30s and lows in teens to
lower 20s each night. Additional concern is for wind chills around
10 degrees.

In the extended period, temperatures will begin to warm into 40s
and 50s by the end of next week; above average for this time of
year. At this time, there is no hazardous weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Still some IFR ceilings holding on at KBBG
but overall looking at VFR ceilings to start. Lower ceilings and
light precip are expected to spread into the region during the
12z-15z time frame as a sfc wave of low pressure/inverted trough
approach and then move into sw MO/nw AR by late in the period.
Precip might start as wet snow or a wintry mix at KSGF and KJLN
before quickly transitioning to rain/drizzle. Expected lowering
ceilings after 12z with IFR common by afternoon/18z. Drizzle is
expected to persist late even after this first wave shifts east.
A transition to freezing drizzle/light freezing rain will be
posisble at KJLN and KSGF just after this period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094-098.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...DSA



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