National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KSGF 180450
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

It was another hot and humid afternoon across the area with early
afternoon temps in the low to mid 90s with heat index values
between 100-105F. Dewpoints were running a little higher than
guidance was suggesting. This is largely due to less mixing than
expected along with some locations with green vegetation. Even
with some weak energy across the area, the mid level capping
inversion was too strong for much development with the exception
of south central Missouri where a few storms could still form late
this afternoon, however most locations will likely remain dry.

A warm and muggy night is in store with most locations only
dropping into the lower 70s for lows. This will set the area up
for what will likely be the warmest day of the year so far on
Friday. HREF probs show very low potential for much cloud cover
and 850mb temps of 22-24C. We are going with the 50th percentile
of NBM guidance which has highs in the middle to upper 90s across
the area. Can not rule out a Warmest readings are expected north
of Interstate 44 where ground conditions have been slightly drier.
While there will be a little more low level mixing tomorrow with
the southwest winds, still expecting dewpoints around 70-72F which
will allow for heat index values to reach the 100-106F range.
Given the heat of the past few days and the potential for more
people outdoors on a Friday, decided to go with a Heat Advisory
for areas north of Springfield on Friday. Those more sensitive to
the heat and those outdoors will want to take the proper
precautions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

This weekend is looking hot and dry as the area remains well south
of a cold front. Highs in the 90s look likely. Looks like
dewpoints should mix more in the afternoon which would cut down on
afternoon heat index potential, limiting values to 100 or less.

The cold front and upper level energy dive into the area late
Sunday night and Monday with widespread rain possible on Monday.
This will also usher in much cooler air for early next week with
highs in the 70s possible for Tuesday. Additional rain chances
also occur mid week. This cooler and wetter pattern is also
supported by the CPC extended outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

VFR conditions are expected to continue through tonight and
Friday. The region will see minimal coverage of mid to high level
clouds through the TAF period, with skies primarily remaining
mostly clear. Meanwhile, surface winds will remain out of the
south/southwest through the TAF period at 5 to 10 knots, with a
few gusts up to 15 knots on Friday at KSGF and KJLN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-078>081-083.

KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Perez