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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KSGF 081209
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
709 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Main concern will be severe weather chances with a strong cold
front that will move quickly through the area late this afternoon
and early this evening.

A strong cold front over MN and the Dakotas will move very quickly
south into central MO/the I-70 corridor by late this afternoon/5pm
then through our forecast area in a time frame roughly 6 pm to 11
pm. Winds will veer to the southwest ahead of the front today and
with some dry air mixing down sfc temperatures should again reach
up to around record levels for the date (mid/upper 80s).

High res models vary on the western extent of tstm development
today along the front, mainly due to how they are handling deep
moisture availability. In general, the front will be meeting
increasing moisture as it moves sse through the area. Progged
soundings vary on moisture depth, but in general with PWATs
increasing to over an inch and sfc dew pts into the low 60s (on
average---they will mix lower), strong low level frontal forcing
should be able to fire up at least scattered convection, again,
mostly tied to the frontal zone. Our highest storm chances will be
over the eastern cwfa, esp east of Hwy 5, but a look at ensembles
indicates that we will have at least have some chances for storms
as far west as Highway 13 before chances really drop off to the
west. Strong low/mid level lapse rates and high cape values
through the hail growth zone would support large hail and SPC`s
outlook highlights that potential. Damaging winds will also be a
concern. The tornado risk looks low with a prefrontal trough and
veered sfc winds, and esp if a drier scenario with higher lcl
heights wins out.

After the front sweeps through we will see gusty nnw winds and
much cooler/colder temperatures. There could be a brief fire
danger in our northwest counties as the winds pick up late today
into the early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Thursday-Friday: Gusty northwest winds with cooler than normal
temperatures can be expected. We will see an elevated fire danger
for woodland fuels. Grass fuels have greened up quite a bit. Not
planning on any fire weather headlines other than a mention in the
hwo.

A 1025 mb sfc high moves south and becomes centered over
northeast KS by daybreak Fri. A dry air mass and light winds
should lead to some frost/light freeze potential Thursday
night/Friday morning for all but far southern MO.

Weekend: A cutoff low now off the southern CA coast will
eventually get picked up and shift east into the Plains over the
weekend. Guidance varies on the track and timing, but increasing
rain chances/some thunder looks good as a potentially strong storm
organizes/develops over the region.

Monday-Tuesday: Looks cold. Even with model guidance differences,
it looks like an unseasonably cold air mass will move in with
some frost/freeze potential. The model blend has some rain
chances, but at this point that may be an artifact from previous
runs. Will leave the extended blend alone, but if the forecast
trends hold, this should be a drier period than indicated by the
current forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

VFR will be the dominant flight category during this TAF period as
a strong but fairly dry cold front passes through the region.
Scattered strong storms will be possible near or after 00z this
evening, mainly east of the SGF/BBG/JLN terminals. Coverage will
be scattered and confidence is not high enough to add mention to
it in the TAFs, but any pilot flying across eastern Missouri,
southern Illinois, and western Kentucky this evening could
encounter some scattered strong storms.

Surface winds will be light and from the south this afternoon at
around 5 kts. Beyond 00z, winds will shift to the north and gust
between 20-25 kts as the cold front makes its passage.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for the date:

Location     Temperature deg F/Year(s)

Springfield         88/1890
Joplin              86/2011/2001
Rolla/Vichy         84/1965
West Plains         85/2011

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Albano