Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000 FXUS63 KSGF 180450 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 ...Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 It was another hot and humid afternoon across the area with early afternoon temps in the low to mid 90s with heat index values between 100-105F. Dewpoints were running a little higher than guidance was suggesting. This is largely due to less mixing than expected along with some locations with green vegetation. Even with some weak energy across the area, the mid level capping inversion was too strong for much development with the exception of south central Missouri where a few storms could still form late this afternoon, however most locations will likely remain dry. A warm and muggy night is in store with most locations only dropping into the lower 70s for lows. This will set the area up for what will likely be the warmest day of the year so far on Friday. HREF probs show very low potential for much cloud cover and 850mb temps of 22-24C. We are going with the 50th percentile of NBM guidance which has highs in the middle to upper 90s across the area. Can not rule out a Warmest readings are expected north of Interstate 44 where ground conditions have been slightly drier. While there will be a little more low level mixing tomorrow with the southwest winds, still expecting dewpoints around 70-72F which will allow for heat index values to reach the 100-106F range. Given the heat of the past few days and the potential for more people outdoors on a Friday, decided to go with a Heat Advisory for areas north of Springfield on Friday. Those more sensitive to the heat and those outdoors will want to take the proper precautions. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 This weekend is looking hot and dry as the area remains well south of a cold front. Highs in the 90s look likely. Looks like dewpoints should mix more in the afternoon which would cut down on afternoon heat index potential, limiting values to 100 or less. The cold front and upper level energy dive into the area late Sunday night and Monday with widespread rain possible on Monday. This will also usher in much cooler air for early next week with highs in the 70s possible for Tuesday. Additional rain chances also occur mid week. This cooler and wetter pattern is also supported by the CPC extended outlooks. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 VFR conditions are expected to continue through tonight and Friday. The region will see minimal coverage of mid to high level clouds through the TAF period, with skies primarily remaining mostly clear. Meanwhile, surface winds will remain out of the south/southwest through the TAF period at 5 to 10 knots, with a few gusts up to 15 knots on Friday at KSGF and KJLN.
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&& .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-078>081-083. KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Perez

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