-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
751
FXUS63 KSGF 141855
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
155 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Active summertime pattern continues this week with daily
  afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances.

- Fog possible again tonight east of Highway 65.

- Temperatures climb back to around 90 by midweek, continuing to
  gradually increase through next weekend.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Keeping with what seems to be the new status quo around here
lately, more summertime pulse/pop-up showers and a few rumbles
of thunder this afternoon. Best (20-45%) chances along and
south of I-44, where the stationary front still lingers.
Generally, most areas are expected to stay dry.

Gusty sub-severe downburst winds, brief gusts 20-30 mph from
outflow boundaries of collapsed storms, and lightning will be
the main hazards to look out for this afternoon with these
storms. The only other potential hazard would be brief heavy
downpours. HREF PMMs and HRRR hourly output suggest localized
rainfall rates up to 1-1.5"/hour will be possible, which could
cause ponding in vulnerable low-lying and urban areas that are
susceptible to rate-driven flooding.

Light to calm winds with high temps in the mid 80s today under
partly cloudy skies, with temperatures creeping into the upper
80s further west where there are more breaks in cloud cover.

Patchy fog again tonight with calm winds and saturated
conditions at the surface. The most likely areas to see fog are
valleys, places that see rainfall this afternoon, and east of
Highway 65. NBM favors more north towards central Missouri for
visibility reductions, while the 12Z HREF favors eastern
Missouri. HREF is much more bullish, giving a 30-60% chance of
visibility dropping below 1/2 mi right before sunrise. However,
the spread between members is very large, with 25th percentile
values of 0-1 mi and 75th percentile values of 8-10 mi,
indicating that while there is a signal for fog, confidence in
widespread very dense fog isn`t very high at this time. Whether
an additional headline will be needed tonight will be monitored
as evening model runs come in.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Chances for pulse showers and storms continue each day this
week, between 20-40% each afternoon. Our consistent placement
within an upper-level deformation zone gives us numerous
opportunities for energy aloft to provide forcing for showers
and storms. Showers may have more widespread coverage on
Wednesday with a low-level jet strengthening to 20-30 kts (not
much, but better than we`ve had) and providing a more organized
focal point for convection.

The low-level jet on Wednesday will usher in stronger warm air
advection, raising our temperatures into the 90s. This is where
they`ll stay through the end of the week, gradually rising a
few degrees from Wednesday through the weekend.

Thursday and Friday are a little bit of a switch up, with a
stronger shortwave pushing through the northern Plains and
sending a cold front south, but still largely the same story as
far as rainfall goes (daily chances continue). Global models
are in agreement that the upper wave controlling the front will
remain too far north (around Lake Superior) to break through
the persistent zonal flow over the Corn Belt region. This means
the front will stall north of our area, maybe reaching central
Missouri by Friday before a warm front sweeps through the
Midwest from southwest to northeast. Early next week, large-
scale southwesterly flow looks to increase, continuing to raise
our temperatures a couple degrees each day.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Mostly VFR conditions across the area under a scattered low
(3-5kft base) cu field this afternoon, with isolated showers
popping up across southern Missouri. Showers may increase in
coverage between 20Z Mon and 00Z Tues, with best chances for
brief showers/thunderstorms in far southern Missouri. BBG and
SGF terminals reach 30% chances, so prob30, while JLN remains
sub-30% chances. Gusty downburst winds and visibility
reductions from heavy rain within any showers, with the
resulting outflow from storms lingering and potentially
reaching areas not directly impacted by storms, which would
briefly change wind directions. Otherwise, light to calm
southerly winds through the period.

Chance for some patchy mist/fog development again tonight
between 09-12Z, reducing ceilings and/or visibilities.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden