Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000 FXUS63 KSGF 081209 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 709 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020 Main concern will be severe weather chances with a strong cold front that will move quickly through the area late this afternoon and early this evening. A strong cold front over MN and the Dakotas will move very quickly south into central MO/the I-70 corridor by late this afternoon/5pm then through our forecast area in a time frame roughly 6 pm to 11 pm. Winds will veer to the southwest ahead of the front today and with some dry air mixing down sfc temperatures should again reach up to around record levels for the date (mid/upper 80s). High res models vary on the western extent of tstm development today along the front, mainly due to how they are handling deep moisture availability. In general, the front will be meeting increasing moisture as it moves sse through the area. Progged soundings vary on moisture depth, but in general with PWATs increasing to over an inch and sfc dew pts into the low 60s (on average---they will mix lower), strong low level frontal forcing should be able to fire up at least scattered convection, again, mostly tied to the frontal zone. Our highest storm chances will be over the eastern cwfa, esp east of Hwy 5, but a look at ensembles indicates that we will have at least have some chances for storms as far west as Highway 13 before chances really drop off to the west. Strong low/mid level lapse rates and high cape values through the hail growth zone would support large hail and SPC`s outlook highlights that potential. Damaging winds will also be a concern. The tornado risk looks low with a prefrontal trough and veered sfc winds, and esp if a drier scenario with higher lcl heights wins out. After the front sweeps through we will see gusty nnw winds and much cooler/colder temperatures. There could be a brief fire danger in our northwest counties as the winds pick up late today into the early evening. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020 Thursday-Friday: Gusty northwest winds with cooler than normal temperatures can be expected. We will see an elevated fire danger for woodland fuels. Grass fuels have greened up quite a bit. Not planning on any fire weather headlines other than a mention in the hwo. A 1025 mb sfc high moves south and becomes centered over northeast KS by daybreak Fri. A dry air mass and light winds should lead to some frost/light freeze potential Thursday night/Friday morning for all but far southern MO. Weekend: A cutoff low now off the southern CA coast will eventually get picked up and shift east into the Plains over the weekend. Guidance varies on the track and timing, but increasing rain chances/some thunder looks good as a potentially strong storm organizes/develops over the region. Monday-Tuesday: Looks cold. Even with model guidance differences, it looks like an unseasonably cold air mass will move in with some frost/freeze potential. The model blend has some rain chances, but at this point that may be an artifact from previous runs. Will leave the extended blend alone, but if the forecast trends hold, this should be a drier period than indicated by the current forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 658 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020 VFR will be the dominant flight category during this TAF period as a strong but fairly dry cold front passes through the region. Scattered strong storms will be possible near or after 00z this evening, mainly east of the SGF/BBG/JLN terminals. Coverage will be scattered and confidence is not high enough to add mention to it in the TAFs, but any pilot flying across eastern Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky this evening could encounter some scattered strong storms. Surface winds will be light and from the south this afternoon at around 5 kts. Beyond 00z, winds will shift to the north and gust between 20-25 kts as the cold front makes its passage. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for the date: Location Temperature deg F/Year(s) Springfield 88/1890 Joplin 86/2011/2001 Rolla/Vichy 84/1965 West Plains 85/2011 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Albano

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