Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 212058
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
258 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

Despite the abundance of low clouds this morning, temperatures
are running nearly identical to this time yesterday as increasing
S/SW winds have propelled the strong warm air advection behind a
warm front now well to our north. Meanwhile, low pressure to our
NW across the CO front range eastward into the Southern Plains
has resulted in a tight pressure gradient across our region today.
This has yielded increasingly gusty winds this afternoon with at
least another 24 hours of these elevated wind speeds and higher
gusts in the 20-30 mph range. Sustained will likely remain just
below advisory criteria so despite the higher gusts, don`t think
we will meet the threshold to warrant an advisory overnight into
much of Thursday. Just be advised that some outdoor activities may
need to be curtailed due to potential impacts from these higher
wind speeds/gusts through Thursday.

Aside from the gusty S/SW winds, the other big weather headline
continues to be the unseasonably warm temperatures for February.
As we anticipate the arrival of a weak cold front during the day
on Thursday, expect one more day very similar to the last few as
continued warm air advection will push high temperatures back
toward the mid and upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday afternoon
before fropa occurs. In wake of the cold front, look for just a
gradual drop off in wind speeds overnight as the pressure relaxes
ever so slightly as winds veer to the W/NW. Low temperatures will
generally range from the mid and upper 40s north to the lower and
mid 50s south following fropa on Thursday night.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

A brief period of NW flow aloft and light northerly sfc winds
will carry into Friday with slightly milder high temperatures in
the upper 60s to lower 70s followed by overnight lows in the 40s
on Friday night. Light NW flow at the sfc will persist through
much of Saturday with high temperatures ranging from the lower to
mid 70s. Beyond that, a gradual warming trend will continue into
the remainder of the weekend as sfc high pressure gradually shifts
east of the region and provides for return southerly flow by late
Saturday across our western zones and eventually areawide through
Saturday night.

The resulting warm air advection will push high temperatures back
into the 70s and lower 80s from Sunday on through Tuesday as flat
ridging aloft builds back across the region. We should remain dry
through the day on Tuesday ahead of the next major trough emerging
from the Four-Corners region into the Rockies with some early signs
of possible severe weather in the middle of the country just beyond
this forecast period by the middle of next week. We will continue
to closely monitor this potential over the coming days as guidance
comes into better alignment.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, MVFR cigs are evaporating away except
for KLFK/KSHV/KMLU for a couple or few hrs longer, lifting as
they scatter. SW winds 10-20KT today and WS020/21050KT this
evening as the MVFR cigs redevelop. SFC winds will start to veer
a bit by daybreak, but a wind shift will accompany a fropa mid to
late afternoon. Speeds will keep 10-20KT with some higher gusts
on Thursday. Clouds will remain, but very little if any rainfall.
The wknd will be a bit cooler with winds backing down to W/SW Sat.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  81  54  72 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  59  76  53  71 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  78  46  69 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  60  79  49  69 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  56  76  50  70 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  61  81  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  61  81  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  61  80  54  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24


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