782
FXUS64 KSHV 231123
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
623 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Synoptic northwest flow aloft remains in place once again for this
afternoon as surface southerlies will help afternoon maxT`s climb
into the low and mid 90`s. A stalled surface boundary currently sits
along the I-20 corridor this morning, and theta-e analysis suggests
this boundary may drift just south of I-20 later this afternoon
before returning north as a warm front during the late afternoon and
early evening hours. It is during the evening, closer to midnight
that guidance suggests the boundary stalls NW to SE within the
vicinity of the I-30 corridor. At the same time, a maturing 850mb
LLJ will help advect deep layer moisture and 70 deg F dewpoints
towards the stalled boundary. It is around this time that morning hi-
res and CAMs suggest that there is potential that multiple
thunderstorm complexes (or MCS) will develop across Kansas and
Oklahoma, supported by mid-level shortwave energy, and follow the
boundary south.

Given the consistency in the CAM output to this point, there is
potential what does develop overnight ends up across SE Oklahoma and
SW Arkansas come early Saturday morning. As is tradition around
here, NW flow is very unpredictable and can lead to some forecasting
challenges locally, especially within 24 hours. As a result, there
is some caution attached to the hi-res guidance, even with some run
to run consistency. For the time being, it is worth mentioning that
the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the I-30 corridor in a
Marginal Risk, with the extreme northern tier of McCurtain County,
OK in a Slight Risk. Though wind will be the primary hazard
associated with the possible thunderstorm cluster, hail could be
possible as well.

During Saturday afternoon, the upper ridge responsible the for the
aforementioned NW flow overhead will slide east, with the axis of
the upper ridge now overhead. Saturday afternoon PoPs will be
primarily confined to the extreme northern zones to start, as
afternoon maxT`s will again be borderline hot for many, with highs
in the low and mid 90`s. The Storm Prediction Center does have a
Marginal Risk highlighted across the northern zones once again for
Saturday, but the majority of this outlook takes into account
what is left of any convection from Saturday AM, and any severe
potential rounding the upper ridge during the afternoon. This
upper ridge will continue to influence the region into Sunday.

KNAPP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

As upper ridging becomes replaced with SW mid-level flow,
disturbances within the flow will help support the chance for
showers and thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon, with increasing
convection into early Monday AM, and through Monday afternoon as
the ridge breaks down. A rather disturbed mid-level synoptic flow
will continue to support daily showers and thunderstorm complexes
through the extended long term as multiple disturbances embedded
within the W/SW flow will work across the region. As a result, the
long term 7 day QPF forecast is calling for storm total QPF as
high as 5" by the end of the period for some, with many falling
between 3-5" at this time. Though probabilities are too low this
far out to nail down severe specifics, this pattern does promote
the chance for daily wind and hail potential.

As a result of the daily PoP chances, afternoon temperatures will
respond accordingly with warm afternoon maxT`s cut short by daily
showers and thunderstorms. Nonetheless, thinking is that afternoon
highs will still find themselves in the low and mid 80`s through the
end of the extended period, which will ultimately support local
instability parameters.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

VFR conditions at all TAF sites, except KLFK, where low cigs and
patchy fog have moved in. This fog and low cigs should lift over
the next couple hours, with VFR conditions prevailing areawide
today. Models continue to hint at some thunderstorms moving in
from the north by the end of the period at KTXK/KELD, so decided
to add VCTS at those locations. In addition to that, reduced
flight categories will return at the remaining sites, as morning
low stratus moves into the region from the south. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but may be needed
late tonight as thunderstorm complexes across the Plains approach
the Four State Region. Given uncertainty, holding off on any
further activation messaging at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  75  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  92  73  92  74 /   0  10  20   0
DEQ  85  67  86  69 /  10  30  20  10
TXK  90  72  92  74 /   0  20  10  10
ELD  89  69  89  70 /   0  20  20  10
TYR  93  74  93  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  92  72  93  73 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  74  94  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...20