698
FXUS64 KSHV 110607
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
107 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- The first round of showers and thunderstorms will remain mostly
  along and north I-30 overnight.

- A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms (some
  severe with large hail and damaging winds) will arrive across
  the Four State Region through the day on

- Near-normal conditions return through the weekend into next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Active weather conditions will continue with severe thunderstorms
likely through the next 24-36 hours. Aloft, the main driver of
convection is closed troughing across West Texas, projected to
shift eastward and gradually close off as it swiftly shifts
eastward across the Four State Region later today. As it does so,
short-range computer model guidance suggests a trajectory of the
center of circulation at or just south of the I-20 corridor,
promoting higher amounts of wind shear and enhancing updraft
separation. Storm modes are most likely to hold multi With a
favorable environment for updraft development and separation,
more severe weather threats are on the table, including but not
limited to the following: large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes.

Post-frontal conditions will return temperatures back to near-
normal by the end of this week (lower 70s/upper 40s) after a week
of warmer temperatures. This reprieve continues into next week as
a fairly uneventful frontal passage on Sunday delivers a
reinforcing shot of colder air (Monday night temperatures likely
near freezing north of I-30). Long-range guidance suggests that
the rollercoaster ride will continue with another warming trend
(temperature maximums approaching the lower 80s again) by the
middle of next week. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Very busy Aviation TAF period as a longwave trough will eject out
into Southern Plains and Lower Miss Valley bringing with it
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with some of these
storms likely severe. Currently watching a broken line of
convection across N TX/S OK that will be moving into our northwest
airspace over the next 3-4 hours or so. Have accounted for this at
the TYR/TYR/GGG/SHV and ELD airports through sunrise this morning.
As we transition into the late morning and afternoon hours, a new
line of convection is forecast to develop across the I-20 Corridor
of NE TX and rapidly expand east and northeast, encompassing the
eastern half and southern half of our airspace through the late
evening hours before all convection moves east of our airspace.
Have accounted for this for all terminals. Prefrontal pressure
gradient is very strong this morning through the afternoon outside
of convection of course and post frontal pressure gradient is very
strong as well with winds quickly shifting around to the north
with sustained wind speeds near 15kts with gusts upwards of 30kts
this evening across our entire airspace.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through
Wednesday. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  45  64  43 /  90  50   0   0
MLU  82  45  62  40 /  90  80   0   0
DEQ  76  35  64  37 /  80  10   0   0
TXK  77  41  65  43 /  90  30   0   0
ELD  74  40  62  39 /  90  50   0   0
TYR  77  43  66  45 /  80  30   0   0
GGG  76  42  65  42 /  90  50   0   0
LFK  77  45  66  43 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...13