338
FXUS64 KSHV 170555
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1255 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A mid-level impulse sweeping across southeast Texas into
Louisiana brought gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall to
portions of Deep East Texas and north Louisiana earlier this
evening. The stronger convection remained just south of the CWA
and remains ongoing at this time. Across the ArkLaTex, could see
a break in significant convection through midnight. However, an
upper-trough to the west will support decent rain chances through
the pre-dawn hours. With saturated soils across the ongoing Flood
Watch area and the potential for additional rainfall overnight,
many swollen lakes and bayous may be slow to recede should
upstream convection across central Texas hold together and bring
additional heavy rainfall across the Flood Watch area. At this
time, no updates expected with ongoing package. /05/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

An upper-level trough continues to pivot eastward from southern
NM into western TX with increasing SW flow aloft and large scale
ascent farther east across the Ark-La-Tex. As a result, fairly
robust convection continues to expand deeper into our region with
the strongest thunderstorms confined to parts of Deep East TX. In
fact, one of these prompted a severe thunderstorm warning within
the past hour. This low-end severe potential will persist through
the remainder of this afternoon across Deep East TX and adjacent
parts of western LA but should begin to wane shortly thereafter as
the higher instability axis shifts farther south.

Looking farther north, convection has generally remained rather
tame with widespread showers and embedded storms containing some
pockets of heavy rainfall. Based on these current trends, very
little has changed in terms of the flooding potential with the
Flood Watch remaining intact for the same areas invof and south of
the I-20 corridor. The only change was to move up the expiration
time to 7 AM on Friday since the bulk of heavy rain should exit
the region by that time. In the watch area, additional 1-3 inch
amounts will be possible through Friday morning with only light
rain expected thereafter as the primary trough axis shifts east
into the Southern Plains. Even with cloud cover persisting into
Friday afternoon, high temperatures will generally top out in the
the lower 80s while overnight lows will range through the 60s both
tonight and Friday night with lingering convection still possible.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Beyond Friday night, the chance of at least isolated convection
will persist across our eastern zones through Saturday with the
passage of the main trough axis. Along with lingering clouds, this
will maintain high temperatures in the 80s on Saturday afternoon
before a warming trend commences during the latter half of the
weekend with an upper-level ridge gradually building into the
region on Sunday. This ridge will serve as the dominant weather
feature through early next week as temperatures push higher into
the upper 80s and lower 90s for much of the remaining forecast
period.

By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the next major trough and cold
front will shift into the mid-section of the country and slowly
chip away at the ridge, helping usher it farther eastward across
the SE CONUS. As a result, expect at least some lower end rain
chances to return by Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday along with
slightly milder temperatures by the middle of next week and likely
beyond that with the potential of the front stalling out somewhere
across our region by late Wednesday into the late week timeframe.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Terminal impacting SHRA/TSRA has departed east, with a mix of low
mid and high clouds present to start the TAF package. Upper
trough will continue to enter the airspace overnight and swing
through during the afternoon and evening. This should help to
break up some of the low clouds expected to remain in place
through the mid to late morning and early afternoon hours. Given
the influence of the upper trough, a return to near BKN, maybe
some SCT by the evening, is expected. CAM`s still advertise
SHRA/TSRA development near KTXK late this afternoon. How this
evolves will dictate what terminals see downstream impacts. There
remains some uncertainty regarding any FG development through the
morning. Low clouds may support some BR however, which could
reduce VSBY temporarily before and shortly after sunrise.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  68  87  68 /  30  30  20   0
MLU  82  66  84  66 /  40  40  30   0
DEQ  81  62  84  62 /  70  30  10   0
TXK  82  65  86  65 /  50  40  10   0
ELD  82  64  83  63 /  50  40  20   0
TYR  81  66  87  67 /  20  20  10   0
GGG  82  66  86  66 /  30  20  10   0
LFK  82  66  88  67 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ136-149>153-
     165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...53