Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 241138 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
638 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.AVIATION...
IFR/low MVFR cigs have developed and spread NE across much of the
region this morning, with only slow improvement expected through
the remainder of the morning before VFR conditions return by late
morning/midday. Afterwards, the cu field should scatter out for
the afternoon. Isolated to widely sct convection associated with a
weak seabreeze will develop by mid to late morning across SE
TX/SW and SCntrl LA, spreading N into portions of Deep E TX/NCntrl
LA by mid and late afternoon. Low confidence precludes mention of
VCTS at the LFK/MLU terminals this afternoon, with this
convection diminishing by sunset. While a few cu may linger across
portions of the region this evening, SKC will prevail across most
locales, before areas of low MVFR/possibly IFR cigs develop
across E TX/N LA after 06Z and affect much of the region by or
prior to daybreak Friday. S winds 6-12kts today will diminish
slightly to 3-8kts after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday/

Warmer and muggier conditions have returned to the region this
morning, a far cry from what was observed just 24hrs ago N of a
stationary frontal bndry that provided a brief respite to the heat
and humidity. In fact, a 20-25kt Srly low level flow over the Wrn
half of the region this morning has been sufficient enough for
extensive bands of stratus to develop and quickly spread N across
much of E TX/portions of Wrn LA, with this trend expected to
continue through the morning as it spreads into SE OK/SW AR. With
these low clouds seemingly locked in place, little additional fall
in temps is expected through daybreak, which will set the stage
for even hotter conditions this afternoon as the center of the
upper ridge currently over Middle Red River Valley builds E into
the region by afternoon. The NBM has again initialized warmer than
MOS with max temps in the mid 90s areawide today, which seems
reasonable especially as 08Z temps remain in the mid to upper 70s.
Thus, only minor tweaks were made, with very limited mixing of
dewpoints expected today resulting in heat indices ranging from
102-105 degrees over much of the area. With the upper ridge center
building over the region this afternoon, the Nwd extent of the
weak seabreeze will again be limited today, with the progs in good
agreement with very little building very far N into the CWA. Have
toned down the NBM`s mid chance pops to low chance this afternoon
over the far SE sections of the area given the good compromise
amongst the progs that little will reach these areas today, with
slight chance pops maintained for portions of Deep E TX and the
Srn/Ern sections of NCntrl LA where a weakness aloft will linger
along the Ern periphery of the ridge which may allow the isolated
convection to build a little farther N. Any convection that is
able to move into these areas later this afternoon should diminish
by sunset, setting the stage for another warm and muggy night as
a 20-25kt Srly low level flow should again yield another round of
low clouds that will develop/spread N across much of the region.
This in turn should keep temps from falling much below 80 degrees
Friday morning, as has been the case this morning.

Persistence will be the best forecast tool for Friday, as the
center of the upper ridge remains locked in across the area, even
as it expands NE into the Mid-South region. A shortwave trough
progressing E atop the ridge into the Mid-MS Valley this
afternoon/evening will enter the OH valley tonight, with the
GFS/NAM suggesting that a piece of this energy may round the ridge
SW into the Lower MS Valley late tonight and Friday, which could
possibly enhance convection development over Cntrl/Srn MS and
SE/SCntrl LA along the weak seabreeze. Good agreement again exists
amongst the short term progs/CAMs suggesting that the bulk of this
convection will remain SSE of the region, although some isolated
to widely sct convection may still yet build N into portions of
Deep E TX/Srn and Ern sections of NCntrl LA. Did again tone down
the higher mid/high chance NBM pops to low chance over the far Srn
sections of the area, maintaining a buffer area of slight chance
pops a bit farther N. Any convection that is able to build into
the area should again diminish by sunset Friday evening. Did keep
the warmer NBM max temps Friday (in the mid 90s) over the cooler
MOS given the very warm start to the morning and the presence of
the ridge axis overhead, with limited mixing of dewpoints again
resulting in heat indices of 102-105 degrees over much of the
area.

15

&&

LONG TERM.../Friday Night through Wednesday Night/

Another day, another forecast with little to no changes in the
overall thinking regarding this long-term. By Saturday morning, the
trough and cold front will begin moving their way SE through the
Plains, not yet having an effect on our area. However, it`s also
on Saturday that some of our southern zones may see an afternoon
shower and thunderstorms. In fact, some of this activity may even
make it to just north of I-20, so the PoPs of Saturday have been
drawn to account for this activity. It`s Sunday morning when the
trough and cold front make it far enough south that our northern
zones begin to see their increased chances for rain. Just like in
previous forecasts, this system will come to a screeching halt,
planted firmly in place by a vigorous omega blocking high
pressure.

It`s this stalled front that will allow for continued rounds for
showers and thunderstorms all the way through the remaining long-
term forecast. Interestingly enough, the rain chances during this
time appear to be two-fold. In our northern zones, the rain will be
influenced by the stalled frontal boundary. However, in our southern
zones, they will continue to see an influence from the seabreeze and
S/SW flow. With all this being said, it still appears as if QPF
amounts won`t be all that high in general. This is because showers
and thunderstorms will still be scattered in nature, as opposed to
widespread and stratiform. This may only bring day seven total QPF
amounts to 1-2 inches north, with lesser amounts elsewhere. As
for temperatures over the course of this long-term, due to the
increased rain and cloud cover, afternoon highs should only get
into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows on the other
hand will only fall into the low 70s. Unfortunately, this will
also mean another extended period of rather muggy afternoons and
evenings, as plenty of moisture hangs around from the anticipated
rain and Gulf moisture.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  77  95  76 /   5   0  10   0
MLU  94  74  93  74 /  20  10  20   0
DEQ  94  74  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  76  94  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  74  94  74 /   5   5  10   0
TYR  95  77  95  76 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  76  95  75 /   0   0   5   0
LFK  96  77  95  75 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15


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