Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 270106 CCA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
806 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.UPDATE...
Just needing to swing the slight chance wording Northward a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/

Showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze which continue to
lift well North of I-20 at this time. We expect much of this to
disappear with the sunset, but we did need to extend pops and wx
a row or two of counties or parishes Northward from the previous
expectations. The gust front is departing the convection now and
coverage may be peaked for this evening. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 720 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019/

AVIATION...

For the ArkLaTex, sea breeze convection extends along I-20 from
KTYR to KSHV with gusty winds to 30KT and downpours restricting
vsby. Movement is N at 20KT. Fair skies will unfold overnight with
mainly our TX sites seeing some MVFR stratus early on Thursday.
Once again favorable conditions for such will occur again 21-01Z.
/24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday Night/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were beginning to spread
nwd across East TX lakes but should diminish by later this eve.
High pressure will keep any convection very isold Thursday aftn
and eve and most likely limited to limited sea breeze in lgt
southerly flow. Aftn highs will rise to either side of 90 degrees
but mostly lower 90s on Thursday and fall to around 70 just above
dewpoints on Thursday night in lgt winds./07/.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/

Not much change from previous forecast in the extended.  An upper
ridge will continued to be centered over Eastern New Mexico and West
Texas by Friday and will gradually migrate northeastward into Kansas
and Nebraska during the weekend and through the early part of next
week. During the same period, a weak upper trough will slowly
retrograde westward across Arkansas and into Oklahoma, while a
stronger trough will move west along the Gulf coast and into South
Texas by Sunday morning. Diurnally-driven scattered showers and
thunderstorms will become fixture in the forecast during this
period. The highest chances for rain during any given day will
generally be south of Interstate 20 where deep layer moisture and
the influence of the sea breeze will be the greatest.

By next Tuesday, the trough over Texas will merge with a broader
trough axis in the westerlies that will be moving across the Plains.
This trough axis may act to further enhance our chances for
thunderstorms Tuesday and into Wednesday. Overall, the chance for
any organized severe weather appear low. However, downbursts will be
possible, especially from collapsing storms, which may produce
marginally severe wind gusts.

Moisture levels will remain relatively high. With the persistent
rain chances and associated cloud cover, daytime high temperatures
will generally hold steady in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

/20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 105 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019/

AVIATION...
Mid and upper lvl cloud decks mainly along and south of I-20.
Vfr conditions expected thru 27/18z fcst cycle aside from a few
possible late night low clouds at klfk, or patchy late night fog
at mainly keld terminal. Widely scattered convection possible
later in period, but too uncertain to mention attm as 12z area
soundings indicating dry lower lvls. Southerly winds mostly 5 to
10 kts this aftn, becmg lgt by 27/00z./07/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  92 /  30  20  20  20
MLU  71  93  71  92 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  70  90  70  90 /  10  10  10  20
TXK  71  91  71  90 /  20  10  10  20
ELD  70  93  70  92 /  10  20  20  20
TYR  71  90  72  91 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  70  92  71  91 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  72  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/07/20


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