674
FXUS64 KSHV 150802
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
302 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday Night)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Quiet conditions remain this morning, as surface high pressure
has settled across the region. With moist soils, clear skies, and
very light winds, expect some patchy fog to develop across the
region. At this time, not expecting the fog to be dense, as the
region had some decent drying yesterday in wake of the cool
front.However, we will continue to monitor vsbys overnight.

Expect sunny skies across the Four State Region today, as surface
high pressure will remain in place along with upper ridging
building into the area. Should be a little warmer, with highs in
the mid to upper 80s, with some isolated 90 degree readings
possible. By this evening, surface high pressure will slide east
of the region. Southerly winds will return, along with some mid
and high clouds from the west ahead of our next weather maker.
Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer than the previous
night, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

On Thursday, flow aloft will become southwesterly ahead of a
closed trough shifting eastward across the SW CONUS into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. A lead potent short-wave disturbance
will move across Central Texas along the flow towards Northern
Louisiana, bringing rain back into the region during the
afternoon and evening hours Thursday. PWATs are forecast to be
over 2 inches, so rainfall could be moderate to heavy at times.
Models suggest this heavy rainfall axis will develop along and
south of the Interstate 20 corridor. Unfortunately, this is where
the heaviest rainfall fell a couple days ago. WPC has already
highlighted this potential, with a Moderate Risk for Excessive
Rainfall in the aforementioned areas. In addition to the heavy
rainfall, can`t rule out some severe weather, with damaging winds
being the greatest threat. But, a marginal tornado threat also
exists.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

The moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to continue before
sunrise Friday morning.  We may see a break in activity during the
morning hours, before more convection is expected to develop as the
trough and associated cold front move through the region. With an
unstable environment in place, severe storms could be possible, with
all modes in play.  The good news is that the region will have a
chance to dry out after this event.  Upper ridging is expected to
build into the region and remain during the upcoming weekend into
early next week. However, with the dry conditions in place,
temperatures are expected to climb well above normal.  Afternoon
highs are forecast to top out in the lower 90s by Sunday and
through the first portion of next week. Rain chances may return by
Wednesday, as weak cool front tries to move into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR Conditions are anticipated for this entire TAF period, with
winds remaining mostly variable. However, some MVFR VIS may
briefly be possible at KGGG and KMLU later this morning.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  69  87  69 /   0   0  40  80
MLU  87  64  88  66 /   0   0  10  80
DEQ  86  63  83  63 /   0   0  20  70
TXK  88  66  87  67 /   0   0  20  70
ELD  87  63  88  64 /   0   0  10  70
TYR  88  68  82  67 /   0  10  70  70
GGG  88  68  84  67 /   0   0  60  80
LFK  89  67  83  67 /   0  10  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...44