Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 072059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
259 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday Night/

Sfc high pressure centered over the Lower MS Valley continues to
dominate our region with winds trending more SE this afternoon and
aiding in temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 60s. This
trend of warmer and increasingly above normal temperatures will
only continue as we begin the new work week after one more night
of rather chilly temperatures. Clear skies and near calm winds will
aid in good radiational cooling tonight with temperatures dropping
into the mid to upper 30s and lower 40s for overnight lows.

As the sfc high shifts farther east on Monday, look for prevailing
southerly flow and temperatures rebounding into the upper 60s to
lower 70s for afternoon highs. Sunny skies will also continue for
one more day before clouds begin to increase on Monday night with
temperatures about 10 degrees warmer by comparison tomorrow night
compared to tonight. Mid to upper 40s are expected across most of
our northern zones while lower 50s will be more common the farther
south you go.


.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday Night/

The axis of a broad upper level ridge will continue to move into the
Eastern CONUS on Tuesday while a strong upper trough digs towards to
the Northern California coast. In response, the flow aloft will
become increasingly southwesterly bringing a steady stream of
Pacific moisture and associated cloud cover into the region. The
approach of the trough will also result in the rapid development and
strengthening of a surface low over Eastern Colorado and Western
Kansas. The tightening pressure gradient will lead to strong and
gusty winds Tuesday and especially Wednesday, which may be near Lake
Wind Advisory criteria. The highest wind speeds should be over East
Texas. Low-level Gulf moisture will surge northward and increasing
warm air advection will continue a warming trend. Daytime high
temperatures on Tuesday should be in the lower to mid 70s areawide
and likely near or over 80 degrees F by Thursday and Friday. What a
difference a few weeks can make. The NBM typically underestimates
wind speeds, and by underestimating wind speeds, it will not account
for the increased warm air advection. Thus, temperatures in this
forecast package are generally several degrees above the NBM,
especially for daytime highs.

By early Thursday morning, the upper trough will be moving into the
Desert Southwest while a series of northern stream shortwaves moves
across the U.S./Canada border. This will help to bring the surface
low and an associated cold front southeast into the Plains. This
front should stall well to the north in Oklahoma, but scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms should develop in the warm air
advection regime across the forecast area on Thursday.

There is significant disagreement in the models after Thursday. The
GFS basically puts us in a setup for severe weather and bring a very
strong line of convection across the area on Saturday. In contrast,
the ECMWF and Canadian are far more conservative and slower. They
progress the front very slowly southward turning it quasi-stationary
near Interstate 20. This would set up a broad region of ascent and
overrunning precip across most of the area for the weekend. For now,
this forecast was trended more towards the ECMWF/Canadian as it
keeps consistency with previous forecast packages.

It is notable that the ECMWF/Canadian do suggest a better potential
for severe weather after next weekend, but that is beyond the time
range of this forecast.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1146 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021/


For the 07/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail this period
with just some thin cirrus traversing our eastern terminals this
afternoon. Otherwise, expect mostly SKC conditions with E/SE winds
today between 5-10 kts. Winds will decouple after 08/00Z and then
increase from the SE once again by 15Z on Monday between 5-10 kts.



SHV  40  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  37  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  37  69  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  40  69  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  36  69  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  41  70  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  39  70  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  39  72  51  74 /   0   0   0   0




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