339
FXUS64 KSJT 222309
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
509 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer this afternoon with highs in the 50s. Cooler on Thursday.

- Warmer conditions return for Friday and Saturday, with cooler
  conditions Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

As of 2 PM, temperatures have warmed into the lower 50s areawide
and the gusty winds have diminished, making for a pretty nice
afternoon under full sunshine. A weak cold front is located
across the Big Country near I-20. The front will continue south
across the area this afternoon and exit far southern portions of
the forecast area by early evening. Clear skies and light north
winds can be expected tonight, with most areas dropping into the
mid 20s for overnight lows, although a few readings in the lower
20s will be possible in some of the more sheltered areas. Cool
surface high pressure builds into the area tomorrow, with light
wind and afternoon highs in the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 121 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Good radiational cooling conditions are expected Friday morning,
which will lead to one more hard freeze across West Central Texas.
Dewpoints are forecast to drop into the single digits to mid teens
by morning, with light winds and clear skies. This will result in
another very cold morning, with lows in the upper teens to lower
20s. A few locations, especially low lying areas and river valleys,
may be even colder. Temperatures will steadily warm during the day
Friday, with highs in the mid 50s. Mild temperatures are forecast on
Saturday, with gusty south winds and highs mainly in the 60s.

The next upper level trough is forecast to track across the northern
Great Plains late Saturday, sending the next cold front south
through West Central Texas Saturday night into Sunday morning. This
will result in cooler temperatures on Sunday, with highs across
the Big Country mainly in the 40s, and highs elsewhere in the 50s.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 30s. Very similar
temperatures are forecast on Monday, with highs in the 40s across
the Big Country and highs in the 50s elsewhere. The GFS is most
aggressive in indicating overcast skies with light precipitation
across the region on Monday, keeping temperatures for most of the
area in the low to mid 40s, resulting in a dreary day. For now,
kept highs around the NBM numbers, but highs might need to be
trended down if models trend more toward the GFS solution.

Monday, an upper level low is forecast to dive south across Southern
California, then track east across the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, the forecast becomes more challenging as
models diverge on the eventual track of this feature. This low has
the potential to bring the next chance of precipitation to the
region. For now, kept the NBM PoPs, which trended up slightly into
the chance category for Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will continue
to remain below seasonal normals, in the 50s for most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR for the next 24 hours at all sites. Westerly winds this
afternoon will turn to the north at 5 to 15 knots tonight as a
cold front moves through. Winds will remain out of the north to
northeast through Thursday, with a few gusts of up to 20 knots
possible at KABI during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     25  47  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  24  48  20  54 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    22  51  19  56 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   23  49  19  56 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  26  45  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       25  48  20  52 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       25  49  22  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...20