Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 161147 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
647 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

A weak cold frontal boundary in our central counties has moved just
south of San Angelo and Mertzon, and extended to just north of
Coleman. This front will likely stall just south of its present
position by early morning. The front will begin lifting back north
as a warm fron this afternoon. Aloft, a shortwave ridge will be over
Texas today. Temperatures north of the front across the Big Country
will not be as hot as yesterday, where highs will be in the mid to
upper 90s. For our central and southern counties, triple digit heat
is expected again today with full sunshine. Highs will be 100-104
degrees. At San Angelo, the record high of 103 degrees today (set in
1978) could be in jeopardy.

With the spotty nature of temperatures reaching Heat Advisory
criteria, decided to hold off with a Heat Advisory for today. Those
working or spending time outdoors will want to take heat-related
precautions.

The aforementioned frontal boundary should lift north across the Big
Country this evening and early tonight. A weak shortwave trough will
move around the northern periphery of this ridge and into Oklahoma
tonight. Some of the convection-allowing models indicate that
showers and thunderstorms associated with this shortwave could move
across parts of northwest Texas into the Red River Valley tonight.
This convection is expected to stay north of our area, so keeping
PoPs below anything mentionable in our northern counties at this
time. Overnight lows will be 70-73 degrees across our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

At this point, it`s no secret that the workweek will be very hot,
as well as dry, with record or near-record temperatures across
the area. By Tuesday, a low level thermal ridge will intensify
across the southern plains, peaking on Thursday. Expected highs
and associated records are again listed below. In addition to the
heat, winds will increase on Tuesday resulting in near critical to
critical fire weather conditions for areas as far east as a
Coleman to Sonora line. There will be some weak shortwave energy
moving through the area late in the week, that may result in some
isolated thunderstorm activity for areas east of a Brownwood to
Junction line on Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening.

As was mentioned in the previous AFD, both the GFS and ECMWF now
have come into good agreement on the arrival of a cold front this
weekend. The EC has actually come in slightly faster as far as the
timing of an upper level trough, and subsequent cold front moving
south through our area. Both models push a strong cold front
through our forecast area by early Saturday morning, resulting in
much cooler temperatures Saturday and Sunday. Along with the
cooler temperatures, precipitation chances will re-enter the
forecast. Will keep precipitation chances to Slight Chance or less
for now with still quite a bit of uncertainty related to any
showers or thunderstorms.

Climate...

Abilene      Predicted       Record
Tuesday      104             101 (1978)
Wednesday    105             99  (1927)
Thursday     107             105 (1927)
Friday       100             103 (1939)

San Angelo   Predicted       Record
Tuesday      102             106 (2013)
Wednesday    104             102 (2003)
Thursday     105             105 (2003)
Friday       102             104 (1927)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

A weak cold frontal boundary has stalled from near Mertzon to
just south of San Angelo to north of Coleman early this morning.
The front will begin lifting back north as a warm front today, and
should lift north across the Big Country this evening and early
tonight. At KABI, north to northeast winds will become east by
late this afternoon. Patchy low cloud development over the Big
Country early this morning may briefly affect KABI with MVFR
ceilings, prior to 15Z. For our TAF sites south of KABI, generally
clear skies and VFR conditions are expected today and tonight. At
KSJT, winds will become southeast early this afternoon. Our
southern terminals will have generally light winds early this
morning, with south winds 9-12 knots this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

For Tuesday into Friday of this week, a combination of well above
normal (and near record at times) temperatures, very dry air, and
occasionally gusty winds is expected.  As a result, elevated to
critical fire weather conditions will be a concern, primarily during
the afternoon and early evening hours.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected on Tuesday
afternoon, when hot afternoon temperatures (upper 90s to 104
degrees) will be combined with increased and gusty south-southwest
winds and relative humidity dropping to 10-15 percent. We plan to
issue a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday afternoon and evening (Noon
to 8 PM) for the Big Country and Concho Valley, along with Crockett
and Schleicher Counties.

For Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, elevated to near critical
fire weather conditions are anticipated with a combination of hot
temperatures (record or near-record highs), breezy south-southwest
winds and relative humidity values in the single digits to 20
percent.

On Friday, elevated fire weather conditions are probable, with a
combination of hot and dry conditions and breezy south to southwest
winds ahead of a cold front. The cold front is forecast to move
south into the area by the beginning of the weekend, and gusty north
winds will be possible following its passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     98  72 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 104  72 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
Junction   104  70 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   99  70 103  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  99  73 103  72 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona      101  71  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
Brady      104  71 102  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for Callahan-Coke-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-
Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...19
FIRE WEATHER...19


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