Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 242212
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
512 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread across much of
West Central Texas this evening. Some of these storms may be
strong to severe, with damaging winds and large hail. Most of this
activity should be east of the area by 06Z. Stratus development is
expected between 09Z and 11Z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. VFR
conditions will return to all sites by late morning or early
afternoon. Gusty south winds early this evening will decrease by
mid to late evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Memorial Day)

..Severe thunderstorms possible through Memorial Day...

Thunderstorms are already beginning to develop east of the dryline
across the Trans Pecos region this afternoon. Latest CAM`s indicate
additional thunderstorm development and expansion across western
portions of the forecast area through the early evening hours, with
storms tracking east across the remainder of the forecast area
through the mid/late evening hours. Once again, we`re dealing
with a very moist and unstable airmass across the area, with
sufficient shear for thunderstorm organization. Initially, storms
will tend to be more discreet through early evening, with large hail
in excess of 2 inches possible, primarily west of a Sweetwater,
San Angelo to Sonora line. Later this evening, storms should become
more linear in time, with damaging winds the primary threat,
although large hail will still be a concern. In addition, PW
(Precipitable Water) values will range between 1.0 and 1.5 inches,
which will contribute to heavy rainfall potential and a localized
flash flooding threat.

Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to enter the Big Country
tomorrow afternoon, then continue slowly south across the remainder
of the forecast area during evening hours. The front, along with
support from an upper trough entering West Texas, will result in
additional thunderstorm development tomorrow. A very unstable
airmass will be in place south of the cold front, with large hail
and damaging winds a concern once again. In addition, cannot rule
out a tornado or two, primarily across southern sections where
backed low level flow will occur ahead of the cold front. Heavy
rainfall and the potential for flooding will also be a concern
again tomorrow. Temperatures will be cooler for Memorial day, with
highs ranging from the upper 70s across the Big Country, to
the low and mid 80s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

A stormy pattern remains in the forecast as a disturbance looks to
park across the region over the next few days. In fact, multiple
rounds of thunderstorms have been included in the forecast. This
includes the potential for heavy rainfall and a few strong storms at
times. Otherwise, look for cooler temperatures across the area. In
fact, a cold front will pass through the area on Monday night and
Tuesday. It is during this time that we will introduce the best
chance for thunderstorms. Rainfall totals appear to be in the 1 to
4 inch range through the entire forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  77  57  73 /  70  50  70  40
San Angelo  62  83  59  78 /  60  30  70  30
Junction  63  83  60  79 /  70  30  60  30
Brownwood  63  81  61  76 /  80  40  70  60
Sweetwater  62  76  57  73 /  50  50  70  30
Ozona       62  85  58  78 /  50  30  60  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels



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