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000
FXUS64 KSJT 091154
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
654 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...Showers and thunderstorms possible this evening...

An upper level ridge will shift a bit farther east over West
Central Texas today, along with a strengthening low level thermal
ridge. This will result in hotter temperatures today, with
afternoon highs topping out in the mid and upper 90s under
mostly sunny skies.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
devlop across west Texas late this afternoon along the dryline,
as a shortwave trough lifts northeast across the area from the
Big Bend region. Some of this activity may work its way into
western portions of the forecast area this evening, but will keep
POPs on the low side given some uncertainty regarding coverage
and eastward expansion into the area. If storms survive, a few
could be marginally severe this evening, with isolated large hail
and damaging winds possible. Storms that make it into the area
are expected to weaken as they move east overnight, but may still
pose a wind threat prior to midnight. Temperatures will be a
little warmer tonight, with overnight lows in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...Rain chances dropping off with hotter temperatures and highs at
or above 100 degrees (mainly central and southern parts of the area)
for this weekend into next week...

For Saturday, an outflow boundary from Friday night convection
could end up in our eastern counties. A dryline will also mix
into our eastern and southeastern counties. May have enough
convergence to allow for isolated or widely scattered thunderstorm
development if the low-level flow is not too veered. While the
greater severe weather threat will be east and northeast of our
area, a conditional threat will exist for a few severe storms in
some of our eastern and southeastern counties with large hail and
damaging winds, given the strong instability and steep low to mid-
level lapse rates.

The overall pattern features rain chances dropping off with
hotter temperatures and highs at or above 100 degrees (mainly
central and southern parts of the area) for this weekend into next
week. Our area will be near the northern periphery of a mid/upper
level ridge which builds to some extent over Texas from Mexico.
But there are a few other considerations which add a few
complications to the forecast. Have some indications of a couple
of shortwave troughs to move across the southern Plains, around
the northern periphery of the aforementioned ridge. A couple of
weak cold fronts are progged to drop south into the Big Country
before stalling. The first front is forecast to arrive Sunday
afternoon. Another weak front may arrive in the Big Country on
Thursday. Dryline will be mixing east each day into our area, but
specifically how far east is uncertain at this time. After
Saturday, the only mentionable PoP is in the Big Country Monday
evening and early Monday night. The arrival/position of the weak
cold front should limit highs to the 90s across the Big Country
Sunday and Monday, while our area farther south has highs 100-104
degrees on those days. Going through next week, the hottest
temperatures (highs generally at or above 100) look to be in our
central and southern counties. Expect the highs to reach Heat
Advisory criteria (103 degrees) at a number of locations Tuesday
onward, and some areas could reach or exceed 105 (Excessive Heat
Warning criteria) by Thursday and Friday. This is supported by a
strong 850mb thermal ridge which expands east across the area,
along with strong insolation. Some compressional warming effects
are also possible ahead of any frontal boundaries. Toward the
end of the week, our entire area could have 100 degree
temperatures.

After the comparatively mild temperatures our area experienced in
middle and late May into the first part of June, those working or
spending time outside will want to take needed heat safety
precautions with the upcoming change to triple digit temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Predominantly a VFR forecast the next 24 hours. Convection is
expected to develop west of the area late this afternoon. Hi-res
models continue to show some of this activity moving east across
the area this evening and overnight. Still not confident enough to
include TS on station, but will include VCTS to all terminals
except KJCT this evening based on latest guidance. Some storms may
be fairly strong, with some hail and strong wind gusts possible
but convection should be weakening by late evening as they move
east. Outside of convection, winds will remain light the next 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     96  70  98  69 /   0  20  10   0
San Angelo 100  69 100  71 /  10  30  10   0
Junction    99  71 100  70 /  10  10  10  10
Brownwood   98  70 100  68 /   0  20  20  10
Sweetwater  97  70  99  68 /  10  20  10   0
Ozona       98  69  97  70 /  10  30  10   0
Brady       97  70  97  70 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24