Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 101744
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1244 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Early this morning, low level stratus was spreading westward across
the area resulting in mostly cloudy skies. The cold front that
moved through the area yesterday was more or less stalled out
over our far southern counties. This surface boundary will serve
as the focus for possible shower and thunderstorm development
today. Most of this morning`s model guidance keeps the bulk of
the thunderstorms later this afternoon to the south of the CWA
(closer to the international border) where instability will be
higher in the warm sector. However, the last several runs of the
HRRR do show storms developing north of the above mentioned
boundary across Sutton and Kimble counties. If any storms do
develop they would have the potential to be severe given progged
MU CAPE values near 2000 J/KG and 0-6 km shear values of 50
knots. SPC`s Day 1 Convective Outlook has the area generally along
and south of a Mason to Eldorado to Ozona line highlighted in a
slight risk. The primary hazard would be very large hail given
steep lapse rates aloft in the hail growth zone.

Otherwise, we`ll see much cooler temperatures today with low level
east-northeast flow prevailing. Highs will only be in the 60s and
70s. Cannot rule some light rain or patchy drizzle across our
northern and eastern counties this morning but not expecting much.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase area wide overnight
as the stationary boundary begins to lift northward as a warm
front and a shortwave trough moves across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

By early Tuesday morning, a shortwave is expected to be moving
across Texas. This shortwave, combined with ample low level
moisture, and a warm front advancing to the north across our area
is expected to result in widespread showers and thunderstorms from
early Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours. Several CAMs show
a cluster of precipitation over our southwestern counties around
sunrise, then moving east throughout the day, eventually impacting
most of our area with rain. While most areas should see rainfall
at some point Tuesday, parts of western Crockett County could be
left out of the bulk of the precipitation. And although we will
have thunderstorms with this activity, most are not expected to be
severe, but we could see some strong thunderstorms, especially
later in the day as heating helps destabilize the atmosphere. We
could see some breaks in the clouds across our western areas
during the afternoon allowing some areas to see temperatures
warming back into the 70s in our southwestern counties.

While this precipitation is occurring on Tuesday, another
shortwave will be moving east through the central plains, sending
another cold into our area Tuesday night. This front will bring
cooler air back into the region, along with creating weak
isentropic lift. This will keep temperatures cool Wednesday with
highs mainly in the 60s area- wide, and keep a 30 to 40 percent
chance of continued light precipitation through Wednesday morning.
Expect precipitation to diminish in coverage during the day
Wednesday.

From Thursday into the weekend, we are still expecting
temperatures to slowly warm, with a dry forecast for the most
part. A weak upper level low may move into the area over the
weekend, so we will see another chance of precipitation by late in
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Isolated thunderstorms possible near KSOA and KJCT mid afternoon
and evening. Otherwise MVFR stratus decreases to IFR this evening
and overnight. Thunderstorms possible near KSOA and KJCT mid
afternoon into late evening. Widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be developing after midnight and continue to
increasing through daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  54  67  52 /  10  60  80  50
San Angelo  68  56  74  54 /  10  50  70  50
Junction  76  59  76  57 /  40  50  80  50
Brownwood  65  56  69  54 /  20  60  90  50
Sweetwater  61  54  67  51 /  10  60  70  50
Ozona       77  59  78  57 /  20  50  70  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04


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