Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 161125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
625 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

/12Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings this morning should improve to VFR by around 15Z or
so. Otherwise, southerly winds will increase with some gusts to
25KT possible this afternoon. By 00Z, thunderstorms will start
developing, which may impact most or all TAF sites. Rapid wind
shifts and downbursts will be possible with this activity. For
now, we have gone with just VCTS to show potential, and will
refine timing with the next TAF set.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a stationary boundary was located over northwest
Texas, while a 500mb low & likely an MCV was located over the OK and
TX Panhandles.  These ingredients were driving a severe MCS across
much of Oklahoma and north central Texas.  In addition, this
activity produced a significant outflow boundary that has parked
itself roughly along the I-20 corridor.  The dryline was located
from just south of Roswell to near Presidio. Temperatures were
generally in the 70s as of 3AM, with dewpoints in the 60s.

Patchy morning stratus should burn off by mid-morning, and southerly
winds will once again pick up across the area. 850mb temperatures
should range from 18-23 deg C, which should allow daytime highs to
reach the mid to upper 90s, depending on cloud cover.  However, the
main event appears to be another round of thunderstorms expected
later this evening.  Both the NAM and GFS show a fairly stout cap in
place across West Central Texas, and MUCAPE values should reach
around 4000-5000 J/kg by late this afternoon.  Some isolated showers
and/or t`storms will be possible in places where the cap breaks
early, but the best chance will be when a 500mb shortwave moves
through west Texas right around 00Z. At that time, activity will
likely develop along what is left of the aforementioned outflow
boundary and move southeastward. Models are also showing the dryline
nosing its way into the Concho Valley late this afternoon, which may
also help to initiate thunderstorms. The SPC Day 1 Outlook has much
of the area under a Slight Risk, favoring much of the Big Country
and Concho Valley with a wind and hail threat.  This is consistent
with several Hi-Res models, which show widespread convection
exploding after 00Z, possibly developing into an MCS over the Hill
Country later in the evening.  For this reason, PoPs were increased
to 40-50 percent in this area tonight.


(Monday through Saturday)

Unstable air mass will continue across the area for Monday and
Tuesday. Despite some ridging aloft working its way into the area,
at least a few diurnal afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
possible each day. Will continue the slight chance to chance POPS
in place across most of West Central Texas. A more summer-like
pattern then takes over for the remainder of the work week, with
drier conditions at the surface and a thermal ridge building
across the area. Afternoon highs will creep up to near or just
above the century mark for Wednesday through Friday. GFS guidance
has San Angelo at 108 on Thursday and this seems a bit high
considering the green vegetation still in place, but readings
above 100 degrees is likely. Models suggest the thermal ridge
breaks down a little for next weekend so temperatures may drop
back down into the 90s by then.


Abilene  94  70  91  70 /  30  40  20  20
San Angelo  97  70  94  71 /  20  40  20  10
Junction  96  71  94  71 /  20  40  20   5
Brownwood  93  70  90  70 /  30  50  30  20
Sweetwater  94  70  91  71 /  20  30  20  20
Ozona       93  69  91  70 /  20  30  10   5



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