Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 211157
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
557 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019



.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Windy today with south winds gusting to 35 KTS at KABI and 30 KTS
at KSJT from mid morning into the afternoon. Breezy conditions
will persist overnight, and may increase towards midnight as a
45-50 KT 850 MB low level develops. MVFR stratus may affect KSOA
and KBBD and KSJT after midnight as moisture move up from South
Texas.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A Wind Advisory will be in effect for the Big Country today, as a
tight pressure gradient develops between a lee trough to the west
and surface high pressure to the east. South winds will be mainly
in the 25 to 30 mph range, with gusts to around 40 mph. The winds
will decrease below wind advisory toward sunset, but remain
breezy overnight. It will otherwise be warmer and mostly sunny
today with highs in the mid and upper 60s. Tonight, the warmer
trend continues with lows in the 40s to lower 50s, due to the
stronger winds and stratus (low clouds) developing after midnight.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Weekend)

No significant changes to the long term forecast thinking this
morning. An active pattern with several upper level lows moving
through the central CONUS is expected to bring a series of dry
cold frontal passages causing periodic swings in temperatures.

The first cold front will move through the area Tuesday as an
upper level low and associated trough move east across the CONUS.
At this point, the front is expected to move into the northern Big
Country by midday on Tuesday, which would allow for some warming
ahead of the front. Temperatures should be able to warm into the
50s north of I-10, to mid 60s for southern areas before the front
moves through and cools temperatures down. May see some isolated
light sprinkles ahead of the front across the southern 1/3 of the
area, but coverage is not expected to be enough to warrant a
mention of PoPs during the day. Tuesday night, an area of showers
with some isolated or scattered thunderstorms should develop along
the front near or just east of our CWA, and have kept a slight
chance of showers in for areas east of a Brownwood to Junction
line. Wednesday will be cooler area-wide, with highs in the upper
40s to lower 50s, followed by warmer temperatures Thursday.

The next cold front will move into the area Thursday night into
Friday. This front will be a glancing blow of arctic air, and
could carry colder air with it. Highs Friday right now are in the
50s, but these may be cooled somewhat as models get a better
handle on the front.

Winds quickly turn back around to the south by Saturday morning,
ahead of the next cold front, which looks like it will be a
Pacific cold front, moving through Saturday afternoon, followed
by one more passage early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  50  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  68  47  64  30 /   0   0   0   5
Junction  66  49  68  32 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood  65  49  65  31 /   0   5   0  10
Sweetwater  69  48  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       62  44  63  31 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for Callahan-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor-
Throckmorton.

&&

$$

99/04/99


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