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000
FXUS65 KSLC 141556
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
956 AM MDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft centered over the southern Great
Basin will remain in place the next couple of days. This location
of the high pressure will lead to an increase in moisture across
the forecast area through Thursday. Some drying and modest cooling
is possible as an upper level disturbance moves across the
northern portion of the area this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft currently centered over the
southern Great Basin will move little over the next couple of
days. This position of the high pressure will allow moisture to
expand north across much of the Great Basin the next couple of
days.

A couple of features will impact the distribution of convection
through tonight. One feature is the upper trough sagging
southeast through the northern Rockies today. This trough has
nudged somewhat drier and stable air into the northern third of
Utah/southwest Wyoming. Convection for the most part will be
inhibited today, though can not rule rule out a couple of weak
showers/storms at peak heating this afternoon/early evening.

Across southern/central Utah looking at another day of mostly
terrain-tied convection through this evening. The exception may
be across west-central Utah later today as the apparent vorticity
over central Nevada could drift into western Utah and spawn some
loosely organized convection through early this evening.

Moisture will return to northern Utah Wednesday with PWAT values
running between .75" to 1.00" across all but extreme northeast
Utah and southwest Wyoming. The resultant convection will again
be closely tied to the higher terrain, though any weak dynamic
support moving through the area could bring about some
organization to the showers/storms.

PWAT values will continue on an upper trend Thursday with values
generally exceeding .75" across the entire forecast area. The
increase in moisture will lead to a modest increase in mostly
diurnal, terrain-based convection, with any weak dynamic support
bringing some organization to the showers/storms.

A fairly strong trough moving east across the Pacific Northwest
and northern Rockies will bring substantially cooler temps to the
area along with scattered showers/storms by Saturday. Drier and
more stable air moving across the state Saturday night/Sunday will
end most convection and keep temps at or below mid-August norms
on Sunday.

Issued an earlier update to add showers and a few thunderstorms
to the south. Otherwise the current forecast looks to be in good
shape through the short term period.

&&

.AVIATION...A somewhat more stable air mass across northern Utah
will keep the shower and thunderstorm activity to the south of
the KSLC terminal today. Smoke from the western states wildfires
will still be present, though visibility at the terminal will
remain in the VFR category. Light southerly winds will turn to the
northwest between 17z and 18Z, then back to the southeast after
05Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will be confined mainly
to the southern two-thirds of Utah today. A weather disturbance
moving east through the northern Rockies will push a somewhat
drier and more stable air mass across the northern third of Utah
through tonight. The areal coverage of showers/storms will largely
be confined to higher terrain of southern and central Utah this
afternoon/evening. Convection will return to the northern third
Wednesday, then become more likely over all fire districts on
Thursday. A cold front is expected to cross northern Utah Friday
night/Saturday bringing a chance of precipitation and somewhat
cooler temperatures Saturday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

CONGER

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