Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 160332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
932 PM MDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain centered over the southern
Rockies through Friday night. An upper level weather disturbance
moving east across the northern Rockies will bring cooler and
drier air to area this weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Fairly widespread convection developed this
afternoon and evening across portions of southern Utah. Locally
heavy rainfall occurred with these thunderstorms. A remnant area
of rainfall with embedded thunderstorms will continue to impact
Washington County to western Kane County through late this

A remnant MCV is currently located across western Utah. This
combined with a shortwave lifting northeast has aided in the
development of light showers and occasional thunderstorms across
portions of central and northeastern Utah. This area of showers
will continue to move northeast and eventually diminish later

Another round of convection is expected Thursday afternoon and
evening. With limited deep layer shear and marginal instability,
the biggest threat with any thunderstorms will likely again be
localized flash flooding as low level moisture continues to
increase...particularly across southern Utah.

Updated the forecast to better match PoPs with current trends and
expected nocturnal evolution. Will continue to monitor trends
this evening as an additional update may be necessary if the
current forecast progresses precipitation too fast to the


.AVIATION...Light and variable winds will become southerly at the
SLC terminal between 0330Z and 0430Z.


.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture which has been on the increase from the
south now covers Utah this afternoon. This moisture will fuel
scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening. For
tonight a combination wetting rains and gusty/erratic winds will
exist out of the showers/storms. wetting rains will concentrate
across southern, central and northeast Utah through this evening
with somewhat drier storms working north across northern Utah.

For Friday the areal coverage of showers/storms should be similar
to today, with most of the activity remain over/near the higher
terrain. The air mass will remain quite moist, so wetting rains
will accompany some of the showers/storms during the afternoon
and early evening hours.

Changes will shows up late Friday night/Saturday as the upper
level trough moving east from the Pacific Northwest tracks
across the northern Rockies and northern Utah. Significantly
drier air will following this passing trough on Saturday as will
modestly cooler temperatures for Sunday.





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