Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 312047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
247 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A series of weather disturbances will graze far
northern Utah through tonight. A cold front will cross northern
and central Utah late Wednesday through Thursday.


Now through Friday evening

Partly cloudy skies continue over northern Utah this Tuesday
afternoon. The southern half of the state remains mostly clear.
Radar and surface observations continue to indicate shower
activity to the north of the I-80 corridor associated with a fast
moving stream of Pacific air aloft. This jet will remain close
enough through the evening to allow for a few isolated showers in
the north. This activity will likely become confined to the
upslope favored areas of the northern Wasatch as slightly drier
air moves in by midnight tonight and valley locations dry out. A
temporal minimum in precipitation chances will occur during the
sunrise hours of Wednesday morning. Then by Wednesday afternoon,
our next weathermaker arrives in the form of a cold front. This
frontal boundary will pass from the northwest to the southeast
through Utah during the day and evening on Wednesday. Far northern
Utah will see this front and associated shower activity by 3-5
pm. It will pass through the Salt Lake City metro area around 6-7
pm, arrive along the I-70 corridor by midnight, and finally wash
out near Cedar City/St. George around sunrise Thursday. Along and
behind the front, a band of light to moderate shower activity is
expected with snow in the mountains above 8000 feet. Some minor
accumulations are possible as low as 7000 feet especially in the
north as cold air filters in. The central Wasatch should do the
best as far as snow totals go with some higher res models
indicating as much as 6" of snow on Wednesday night into Thursday

Precipitation from this system will not make it into the far
southern mountains and here the forecast remains dry for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Temperatures will be the main story
on Thursday, with afternoon highs running about 15-20 degrees
colder than they were this afternoon. Lingering moisture in
northwest flow will keep some isolated snow shower activity going
in the northern mountains through the afternoon and evening hours,
however much of this is likely to end by 6pm Friday evening.

Friday evening onward

By Friday evening, any precipitation over the Uintas will be
diminishing. On Saturday, flow aloft turns to the southwest ahead
of a relatively small trough pinwheeling around the southern
periphery of the large, stationary cutoff low over central Canada.
This will increase precipitation chances Saturday afternoon
favoring central and northern portions of the forecast area. Some
disagreement remains amongst the latest models runs timing and
strength, but it looks like the trough axis will cross the
forecast area sometime Saturday evening/night. Thus, aided by
daytime heating, the best precipitation rates are currently
anticipated to occur Saturday afternoon/evening. This wave quickly
pushes off to the northeast bringing precipitation chances to a
minimum Sunday morning.

A large cutoff low then approaches the western CONUS coast Sunday
morning and begins to move inland during the day.  Precipitation
chances again increase as we move through the day (again aided by
daytime surface heating thanks to the WAA) then decreasing slightly
Sunday night.  By Monday, the deep trough axis moves ashore leaving
the CWA under continuous thick cloud cover with precipitation
chances spread across much of the state.  As the trough axis finally
crosses over the region on Tuesday, precipitation
continues...especially favoring the Uinta Mountains before the
system shifts over the Rockies by Tuesday night.

Lower elevation daytime temperatures remain fairly consistent, near
to just above normal through the long term periods.  Lows are
forecast to remain 5-10 degrees above normal through this time frame
as well.


Gusty west winds will remain through the afternoon hours at most
northern sites including SLC. Cigs will remain at or slightly
below 10K ft AGL through the afternoon hours before lowering
slightly this evening. Central and southern Utah will remain south
of the showers and clouds leading to VFR through the forecast





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