Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
477 FXUS65 KSLC 121002 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 402 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild conditions develop and are maintained into the weekend. These values look to peak around Sunday, with forecast highs generally around 10 to 20 degrees above climatological normal. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)... Early this morning a weak frontal boundary has stalled near Juab County in the wake of yesterday shortwave trough that moved through Idaho. The main result is a modest increase in low-level moisture across northern Utah, demarcated by dew points in the 40s north of this boundary and in the 20s/30s south of this boundary. While forcing will be more subtle today, a weak shortwave embedded in the southwesterly flow may help to initiate convection off the Uintas and into Uinta Co WY, as well as isolated convection moving out of northeastern Nevada into northern Utah. Given the marginal thermodynamic profile, expect it will be difficult for any storms to grow upscale and sustain away from topography across northern Utah, however any storms that do will be capable of strong gusty winds mainly in the 45-55 mph range. Otherwise, dry and sunny conditions are expected south of ths boundary through central and southern Utah with seasonably warm temperatures (5-10 degrees above average) in place across the state today. Otherwise, even more drying occurs into Friday as dry southwest flow helps sweep linger moisture across northern Utah today out of the state, entrenching the forecast area in a very dry airmass as we head into the weekend, starting a prolonged dry spell across the state (but more on that below). Otherwise, temperatures will change little into Friday, continuing 5-10 degrees above average. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)... The likelihood for an extended period of hot, dry, and windy conditions continues to trend upward within the extended forecast. Strong ridging will build over the four corners providing strong subsidence leading to minimal rain chances into next week. Anomalously hot temperatures also increase in likelihood across UT and southwest WY with temperatures around 10 degrees above normal to kick off the extended forecast, gradually increasing to 15 degrees above normal by this weekend into next week for the entire forecast area. With hot and dry conditions expected, fire weather concerns increase areawide (see fire section for more details). The concern for fire weather continues as enhanced dry southwesterlies aloft are expected to persist for the majority of the extended forecast. With favorable boundary layer mixing, these winds will make it down to the surface with east resulting in gusty afternoons across the forecast area into next week. To sum it all up, dry, hot, and windy conditions are expected through the entirety of the extended forecast. Be sure to dress appropriately if recreating outside, drink plenty of water, and limit time in the sun! .AVIATION... KSLC...Winds will persist out of the northwest this morning with occasional shifts to northwesterly. By 15z, winds will clock to due southerly and increase to around 10kts. Following this, around 20-21z, winds will become northwesterly around 13-15kts with gusts to 20kts possible. around 03-05z, drainage winds will once again take hold out of the south. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Gusty conditions will occur across all sites this afternoon. Winds will generally be out of the south-southwest across all sites with gusts up to 20kts possible for all sites except KLGU. Additionally, there is a chance KBCE and KCDC reach 30kts in the afternoon as well. Winds will die down and become predominately terrain driven by 03z. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will build over the area through the beginning of next week bringing increasingly hot and dry conditions across the region. A low pressure system will move in along the west coast by early next week brining increasing southwesterly flow by Sunday into Monday, which when combined with the very dry conditions will result in some marginal fire weather conditions depending on fuels which largely remain near-critical for some portions of the state per coordination with the GACC. Also of note, by Friday night through the weekend, overnight recoveries will be increasingly poor. Prolonged period of dry conditions expected through late next week along with above normal temperatures. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Church LONG TERM...Worster AVIATION...Worster FIRE WEATHER...Church For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity