Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 260443

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1043 PM MDT Wed May 25 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1224 PM MDT Wed May 25 2022

Water vapor shows upper trof axis shifting east from the Plains
with upper ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, lee trof
is deepening to our west. Lots of sunshine with temps mainly in
the 60s early this afternoon with relatively light winds.

Western CONUS ridge will continue to build east, peaking over the
Northern Plains by Frridgeiday. Expect temps to warm into the
70s/lower 80s for Thursday and 80s/mid 90s on Friday. A few
locations could be near record highs on Friday. Did adjust temps
up a few degrees for Friday given expected deep mixing, but
greenness could hold readings from reaching their full potential.
There could be a few storms late Friday as upper ridge axis
shifts east and surface trof crosses the western Dakotas, but
overall coverage and severe threat should be limited given lack of
moisture, instability, and deep layer shear.

Wide range in high temps expected Saturday as trof slowly works
across the area, with highs from around 70 in northeast WY to near
90 in south central SD. Could be a better chance for some
strong/severe storms along and east of the surface trof given
there should be better moisture, instability, and shear available.

Strong upper trof will work slowly east across the western CONUS
early next week and into the plains mid week. Looks to be quite
wet across our region, especially in the Sunday night to Tuesday
time frame, as series of upper waves rotating through the trof
overrun the baroclinic zone set up across the area. Some heavy
rains possible given amount of deep layer moisture, with best
severe threat likely to our south and east. Temps will likely
remain below average early to mid week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 1042 PM MDT Wed May 25 2022

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.




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