801
FXUS65 KVEF 162010
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1210 PM PST Thu Jan 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A very slight chance of weak showers and sprinkles
exists this afternoon and evening across far southern Mohave
County, but otherwise, dry conditions will continue for the
foreseeable future for the region. Breezy north winds will take a
pause today but will return region wide early next week as
additional storm systems drop in from the north, with cooler
temperatures overspreading the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday...

The area remains sandwiched between high pressure to the north and
low pressure to the southwest. There is still enough of a surface
gradient over the far southern portions of the forecast area to keep
localized gusty north winds down the Colorado River Valley. The
Bullhead City Airport has consistently been gusting between 30 and
35 mph this morning, but with gradients slowly weakening expect to
see wind gusts slowly diminish this afternoon. The low that has been
parked off the southern CA coast will finally start to push inland
this afternoon. We are already starting to see a few high clouds
spreading into far southern San Bernardino County and we can expect
to see additional mid level moisture spreading into southern San
Bernardino and southern Mohave counties early this evening. There
isn`t a lot of moisture associated with the low, but the latest EC
is showing PWs about 120-130 percent of normal. Over the past 24
hours the models have been slowly ramping up PoPs to around 20-30%
for areas generally south of Needles where forcing ahead of the low
combined with the higher moisture content could bring a few light
showers this evening. Any amounts will generally remain light and
only total a few hundredths or less. Elsewhere, conditions with
remain dry with clear skies.

As the low shifts east, we will return to a northwesterly flow over
the weekend with temperatures near to slightly below normal and
winds generally less than 10 mph, except down the Colorado River
Valley where daily breezes 20 to 30 mph will persist.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...

The flow pattern will amplify Monday as a ridge builds off the West
Coast and a deep polar trough sags into the northern US.
Majority of the deep cold air associated with this trough will
remain shielded to our east by the Rocky Mountains, but the
western edge of the trough is still projected to clip the eastern
Great Basin and Four Corners area, and will allow for a strong and
cold surface high to build into the Great Basin. Exactly how
strong and cold remains uncertain, with GEFS guidance notably
warmer than the EC/Canadian counterparts. The milder solutions
would favor overnight temperatures comparable to the last couple
cool mornings this week, while the cooler solutions would bring
most areas outside of the very lowest elevations to freezing
overnight by Tuesday morning. NBM seems to be latching on to these
cooler solutions and now suggests a low near 30F in LAS on Tuesday
morning. In addition to the cooler temperatures, a renewed blast
of north winds can be expected down the Colorado River Valley,
with additional wind headlines possible.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds remaining less than 8 knots
are forecast through Friday.  Wind directions will favor the normal
diurnal direction patterns, with northeast winds during the day and
southwest-to-west winds at night. No significant cloud cover is
expected through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...The Las Vegas area TAFs will be similar to what is
discussed for Harry Reid above.  TAF sites in the lower Colorado
River Valley will continue to see north winds with gusts to 30 knots
through mid-afternoon, followed by decreasing winds by evening.
Winds should remain less than 12 knots on Friday. At KBIH, light
winds of less than 10 knots will continue through Friday. Winds at
KDAG will remain less than 10 knots into tonight, followed by
increasing westerly winds on Friday.  No significant cloud cover is
forecast across the entire region through Friday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Planz

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