Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 220954 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
253 AM PDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SYNOPSIS...As our active pattern continues this week, winds will
decrease for most locations today compared to yesterday with cooler
temperatures. Warm up still expected for Friday through the weekend,
but gusty southwest winds return both Saturday and Sunday.
Confidence is increasing for the potential of widespread
precipitation for the region as a large Pacific System brings
welcome moisture into the entire region by early next week.

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday.
With winds subsided across the region for the most part, the focus
of the short term is on the exit of yesterday`s closed low and the
evolution and eventual passage of a building low off the coast of
California. This low has continued to trend towards swinging quite
wide and not coming on shore until south of the CA/Mexico border
now. This path does not lend itself to much in the way of impact for
us here in the Great Basin other than some very slight potential for
weak thunderstorms over northern Arizona this afternoon. This area
does see a notable uptick in surface dewpoints, enough to turn LIs
slightly negative after 20Z this afternoon and possible tap into
some marginal instability. These will likely be more virga bomb
creators than actual precip makers. In fact, the HRRR has been
indicating isolated cells producing outflows from KEED to the Mt.
Trumbull area.

Also this afternoon, hi-res models continue to keep winds gusty for
the southern Owens Valley south of Olancha and across the western
Mojave desert where gusts of 35-40 may still occur. Otherwise, no
other impacts expected today.

The quietest day of the next several will likely be Friday as
ridging sets in temporarily over the western CONUS. This will allow
for a day of warmer temperatures and comparatively light winds across
the region.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.

A large eastern Pacific low pressure system is forecast to move to
the west coast on Sunday and then inland across the western states
on Monday before exiting to the east on Tuesday with ridging
building in over the area on Wednesday.

Sunday is expected to be dry and windy area wide with headlines
potentially being needed to address strong winds and increasing fire

Ensembles continue to forecast a large trough moving into the
western states on Monday bringing a widespread chance of showers to
our area. The system is forecast to remain progressive according to
the GEFS and is east of the area on Tuesday followed by ridging on
Wednesday. The EC ENS is less progressive and lingers the low over
the area into Tuesday before moving it east late Tuesday. It also
has ridging returning on Wednesday. Clusters appear to be evenly
split on the two solutions. The extended pattern will begin with
near seasonal temperatures on Sunday dropping to well below normal
Monday and Tuesday before returning to near normal by midweek.


.FIRE WEATHER...No significant winds are expected Thursday or
Friday but gusty southwest winds return on Saturday and Sunday
leading to elevated fire concerns for both days.


.AVIATION...For McCarran... Winds may vary through the day,
bouncing around from north to east at times, but speeds should
remain at 8KT or less through the time period. Mostly clear skies
this morning, but we will see FEW-SCT120-140 by this afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds will favor typical diurnal wind trends, though
isolated gusts to around 20KT are possible down the Colorado River
Valley. Occasional SCT-BKN CIGs around 10kft are possible at times.
There is a possibility of a shower or possible thunderstorm across
portions of southern Mohave County and far eastern San Bernardino
County this afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to
report any significant weather or impacts according to standard
operating procedures.



LONG TERM/Fire...Salmen

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