Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 191602

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
902 AM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms are likely to develop late this
morning across southern Mohave county as a disturbance moves into
central Arizona. Elsewhere, another dry and breezy day is in store
with above normal temperatures. Dry weather area wide will resume
Thursday onward with continued warm temperatures.

No major updates to the forecast are needed this morning. The
current forecast appears to be on track. A northeast to southwest
oriented band of mid-level castellanus is dropping some virga
over southern Mohave County. The instability and moisture down in
this area is creating a threat of showers and afternoon
thunderstorms. With the current setup and based on a mesoanalysis
these showers/thunderstorms are likely to remain south of a line
from Lake Havasu to Peach Springs.

.SHORT TERM...through Friday night.

Sharp moisture gradient has begun to nose into southern Mohave
county early this morning with depends in the mid 60s near Parker
Dam, while much drier air with dewpoints in the teens and single
digits exist less than 100 miles further west.  Convective allowing
models have been insistent on initiating thunderstorm activity along
this boundary later this morning and lifting it across southern
Mohave county during through the early afternoon hours.  While
organized severe storms are not expected, a few storms capable of
producing small hail and strong wind gusts will be possible given
the modest jet forcing aloft, and 20-30 knots of effective shear.
The thunderstorm activity that does develop will lift northeast into
Yavapai and Coconino counties by late in the afternoon and evening,
though some additional storms may form along the southern edge of
Mohave county into the early overnight hours.  The inherited PoPs
were tweaked only slightly this morning and continue to suggest
a corridor of thunderstorm activity south and east of Kingman.

Elsewhere, another dry and breezy day is in store as a weak
shortwave trough traverses the region.  This shortwave will help
nudge the moisture axis eastward Thursday and Friday allowing Mohave
county to dry out, along with bringing a very slight cooling to the
rest of the region.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

The weather highlights this weekend into early next week will be dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. On Saturday, the weak
impulse which entered the region the day prior will dissipate
leaving only prevailing southwesterly flow and low to medium grade
moisture across portions of the area. Latest model runs appear to be
in better agreement in handling the trough developing over the
Pacific Northwest as it passes across the Great Basin Sunday into
Monday. Most effects from this system will remain off to the north
with the only impacts locally being breezy winds and a few extra
high clouds. Temperatures for the long term will remain consistently
above seasonal normals.


.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southwest winds remain around 10 knots
early this morning. After sunrise, winds may favor a more south
southeasterly direction at 8 knots or less until southwest winds
pick up and become gusty by mid- morning. Winds will peak during the
afternoon with speeds of 10-15 knots gusting up to 25 knots through
around 02z. Tonight winds will continue out out of the southwest
with speeds of 7-10 knots. A shift to the north to northwest will be
possible early Thursday morning as a weak frontal boundary pushes
into the area. Speeds should remain between 5-9 knots.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds through this afternoon follow a similar pattern
as the previous few days. Breezy, south to southwest winds can be
expected for most areas with speeds between 10-15 knots gusting 20-
25 knots during the afternoon. A weak cold front will enter from the
north later this afternoon pushing across northern Inyo and the
southern Great Basin through this evening. Winds will shift to the
north to northwest as result, becoming breezy in a few spots. This
front will reach the I-40 corridor early Thursday morning with winds
of 10 knots or less.




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