Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 271006
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
305 AM PDT Fri May 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure digging over the western states
will bring gusty winds during the holiday weekend along with high
fire danger. Temperatures will decrease each day and bottom out
about 10 degrees below seasonal averages by Memorial Day. A warming
trend will then return by the middle of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.

Well above normal temperatures and breezy to windy conditions can be
expected again today before temperatures drop 5-7 degrees each day
Saturday and Sunday as a broad trough digs from the Pacific
Northwest into the Desert Southwest. We will also see considerable
high clouds spreading over our region today ahead of the trough
which will produce filtered sunshine and temperatures lowering a
couple degrees from Thursday`s readings.

South-southwest winds can be expected again today with widespread
sustained speeds 15 to 25 mph and gusts around 35 mph this afternoon
leading to high fire danger across much of southern Nevada and
northwest Arizona where a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon
until 8 pm each day through Saturday.  A belt of southwest or west
winds will become more concentrated on Saturday and again Sunday
across the southern Sierra/Owens Valley and western Mojave Desert
around Barstow-Daggett and Fort Irwin then extending across southern
Clark and central/northern Mohave counties. The latest high res wind
model ensembles support gusts over 40 mph over the western Mojave
Desert but keep speeds below advisory levels for the rest of the
region.

Winds of 15 to 20 will be common across Lake Mead and Lake Havasu
today and Saturday, and 20 to 25 mph across Lake Mohave, but it is a
stretch to find any model support for a Lake Wind Advisory with
extensive sustained winds over 25 mph. However, boating conditions
will be less than ideal due to the persistent south or southwest
breezes through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

Memorial Day will end up being the coolest day of the period with
low pressure dropping into the Southern Great Basin. High temps that
day are expected to be around 10 degrees below normal. However,
winds are expected to be lighter although still breezy. Mainly dry
conditions are forecast along with mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies. Tuesday begins a warming trend that is forecast to return
temperatures back to normal on Wednesday and around 5 degrees above
normal on Thursday. The pattern transitions from weak troughing on
Tuesday to southwest flow Wednesday and Thursday.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Strong afternoon winds and low relative humidity will
produce critical fire weather conditions each day through at least
Saturday for most of southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Red
Flag Warnings are now in effect from noon to 8 pm each day today and
Saturday. Higher humidity will move into the Spring Mountains and
Sheep Range Saturday keeping values between 20 and 30 percent, but
critical conditions will remain over the rest of the region.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...South to southwest winds will continue
through most of the TAF period with a few gusts approaching 30kts
possible this afternoon.  This evening, a modest decrease in winds
is expected, but southwesterly gusts around 20kts are still likely
into Saturday morning.  FEW to SCT clouds AOA 20kft will move across
the terminal today and tonight, but operational impacts are
expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy conditions are expected at all sites today.
Winds at KBIH will likely turn southerly for a few hours late this
morning and early afternoon before turning westerly by mid-afternoon
and then to the north tonight.  Winds at KDAG will remain westerly
through the period and gusts over 30kts are likely through most of
the TAF period.  Breezy south to southwest conditions are likely
into this evening before decreasing overnight at the lower Colorado
River valley sites.  SCT to BKN clouds AOA 15kft will move across
the region today and tonight, but no operational impacts are
expected.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Adair
LONG TERM...Salmen
AVIATION...Planz

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