533
FXAK67 PAJK 061323
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
523 AM AKDT Mon May 6 2024

.SHORT TERM...
Overcast skies and unsettled rainy weather remain the story
through the short term as a weakening low within the Gulf drapes a
stationary front in tandem with broad onshore flow across the
AOR. Rainfall remains needed for southeast Alaska, but totals
remain negligible, ranging from 0.25-0.50" through Tuesday
morning. This could result in some small creek & stream rises, but
not anticipating major impacts at this time. Otherwise,
anticipating the continuation of predominate southerly winds
through the short term, up to 10 to 15 mph over land and up to
15kts for marine inner channels, with seas 3 ft or less. For the
outer waters, anticipate southeasterly winds up to 15 to 20 kts
with combined seas building to 9 ft for today, gradually subsiding
from north to south through tonight. Conditions begin to
deteriorate once more for the outer and outer coastal waters by
Tuesday afternoon ahead of an approaching low.

.LONG TERM...
An active weather pattern continues as system after system moves
into the panhandle, with each one bringing concurrent chances of
rain and wind across the area.

Aloft, a strong jet streak along the E flank of a trough over the
Bering Sea will keep the the primary area of upper level support
over the panhandle.

Closer to the surface, this will contribute to wave development,
bringing frontal bands into the panhandle. Lingering chances of
precipitation associated with onshore flow in the wake of a system
from Sunday and Monday will remain through Tuesday before
another, stronger system arrives late on Tuesday, lasting through
Wednesday. This second system will move up from the SW, moving
around the broader area of upper level troughing. Expect a surge
of more widespread precipitation to be possible with this system
alongside the potential for small craft winds for many locations
and gale force winds potentially in the gulf. Beyond this point
another system arrives late on Wednesday though this one will be
likely focused more on the northern half of the panhandle and the
gulf coast, bringing with it another round of rain and wind to SE
AK. Both of these systems will deliver fairly respectable rainfall
totals to the area, relative to the `dry season` which is
currently underway, though no major flooding concerns are
expected. A break in the weather is possible for Saturday, though
it is likely to prove short-lived as another system may arrive for
the second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Broad low in the gulf will continue to bring onshore and showers
to the panhandle on Monday. Expect MVFR conditions to improve to
low end VFR throughout the day from south to north with ceilings
of 3500 ft or more. Continued improvement but overall continued
cloud coverage heading into Tuesday. No significant wind concerns
for the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
A weakening low in the Gulf will allow for slow improvement of
conditions through today with southerly winds up to Gentle to
Moderate Breeze within inner channel waters and seas 2ft or less.
For outer waters, expect southerly to southeasterly winds up to
Strong Breeze with combined seas up to 9 ft today, gradually
subsiding to 7-8ft north to south through tonight. By Tuesday
evening into midweek, conditions begin to deteriorate once more as
a strong low moves into the Gulf of Alaska from the North
Pacific. Over the Gulf and for outer coastal waters, anticipate
building seas with wave heights up to 10 to 15ft and southeasterly
winds reaching Near Gales to Gales by Tuesday night, particularly
along the coast. Inner channel winds increase by Wednesday
morning up to Fresh to Strong Breeze from the south as the system
pushes inland, with wave heights reaching 3 to 4 ft.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...STJ

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