Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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063
FXUS61 KAKQ 240855
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
355 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will intensify along a cold front this
morning. The cold front then crosses the area this afternoon. A
secondary cold front crosses the area Friday. High pressure
builds in for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 355 AM EST Thursday...

A baroclinic wave is approaching the Eastern Seaboard early
this morning ahead of a deep trough over the central Conus.
Cloudy with occasional showers streaming nwd across the Piedmont
and I-95 corridor is strong southerly flow aloft. Very mild
with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. This
system will track across the region throughout the morning and
into early aftn bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rain
within a region of strong vertical ascent, although detection
from a radar perspective will be limited to non-existent given
that AKQ and DOX radars are each inoperable. QPF ranges from
0.75-1.0" across the area. The associated cold front will then
sweep through the region by early aftn, with drier air
overspreading the region. High temperatures are forecast to
range from the upper 50s to mid 60s, although temperatures may
drop a few degrees by aftn behind the cold front. A strong S
wind of 15-20 mph ahead of the front will gust to 30-35 mph, and
potentially up to 40 mph along the Atlantic coast of the Ern
Shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 AM EST Thursday...

Clearing and colder by tonight as weak high pressure briefly
builds in from the NW. Forecast lows range from the mid/upper
20s NW to mid 30s SE. A trailing upper level shortwave will
cross the area on Friday, and after a sunny start will see some
clouds develop by mid-late morning/early aftn, before clearing
late. There will be decent lift due to the upper energy aloft,
but low levels look very dry so maintained a dry forecast at
this time. A secondary cold front will accompany the trough, and
bring a reinforcing push of colder air. Highs Friday will be
near seasonal averages, mainly in the 40s, and then below normal
temps Friday night (lows in the upper teens to mid 20s), and
Saturday (highs upper 30s to lower 40s) as cold high pressure
builds in and settles over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 PM EST Wednesday...

Fairly quiet conditions for much of the extended period in our area.
An upper level disturbance skirts north of the area during the day
on Sunday which may lead to some light precipitation across the far
northern portions of the area. Due to the lack of moisture, just
maintained a slight chance of PoPs across the north into Sunday
night. Warm air advection develops Monday into Tuesday as upper
heights build ahead of another Great Lakes low pressure system. The
associated cold front approaches the region late in the day on and
crosses the region early Wednesday bringing the potential for rain
or snow showers across the region. Much colder conditions work into
the region by Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 AM EST Thursday...

Low pressure and an associated cold front will push ewd across
the mountains early this morning, and then arrive into the
region later this morning, before pushing offshore this aftn. A
strong pressure gradient ahead of this system will result in a
modestly strong S wind of 12-15kt with gusts to ~25kt early,
will then increase to 15-20kt with gusts of 25-30kt (locally up
to 35kt toward the coast). The potential for LLWS of 45-60kt
~2kft will continue early this morning, mainly for
SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG. The wind will become westerly in the wake of
the cold front with gusts to ~20kt. Light rain will overspread
the region from 08-12z, with a period of moderate to heavy rain
passing across the region later this morning through early aftn.
Generally MVFR cigs are expected, with a low probability if IFR
cigs. A period of IFR vsby will likely occur with the heaviest
rain, and this will likely occur after 12z for the TAF sites.
Drier air quickly arrives behind the cold front this aftn with
rain ending from about 16-19z. Mostly clear by tonight with a NW
wind of 5-10kt.

A weak and dry cold front crosses the area Friday, with high
pressure building into the region Friday night through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EST Thursday...

Early morning surface analysis shows departing high pressure
well offshore with multiple areas of low pressure along a
lengthy cold front stretching from southern Ontario southward
into the Gulf of Mexico. This front will cross the region this
morning and early afternoon with decreasing northwesterly winds
in its wake.

Conditions across the marine area are deteriorating quickly
early this morning with southerly winds generally 15-25 with
gusts to 30 knots. Waves in the Bay are generally running 2-4
feet with seas 4-6 feet offshore. Winds will increase further
this morning with 20-25 knots in the Bay and 25-30 knots
offshore. Wind gusts in the Bay will generally be around 30
knots but a few gusts to 35 knots are possible prior to 18Z.
Wind gusts offshore will range from 30-35 knots across the
southern zones to 35-40 knots for areas north of Cape Charles
Light this morning and early afternoon. Accordingly, strongly
worded Small Craft Advisories are in effect for rivers, Bay, and
Currituck Sound as well as the southern offshore zones south of
Cape Charles Light. Offshore zones to the north have Gale
Warnings in effect from 12Z this morning until 18Z this
afternoon but Gale headlines for some or all of these zones may
need to be extended for a few hours depending on how quickly
wind speeds decrease behind the frontal passage. Regardless,
replacement SCAs will be required for these zones this afternoon
as winds turn to the northwest and begin to subside. Seas will
build 6-10 feet across the southern offshore zones into the
early afternoon. Farther north seas are forecast to increase
into the 8-12 foot range later this morning and have issued a
High Surf Advisory for northern Atlantic-facing Accomack and
Worcester counties from 12Z through 00Z this evening. Seas will
be slow to subside after the front has passed and currently have
offshore SCAs running into Friday morning to account for this
threat.

Conditions improve markedly for the weekend and into early next
week with high pressure in control.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 350 PM EST Wednesday...

Departures will continue to rise in the strong S flow through
Thu morning (especially in the mid/upper Bay) but not expecting
any sites to hit minor flood thresholds at this time.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 100 AM EST Thursday...

The KDOX radar is currently down for a faulty azimuth motor.
Parts will need to be ordered and a return to service time is
unknown.

The KAKQ radar remains down due to a pedestal slip ring
assembly failure. Due to the time to procure/ship the needed
parts, and the repair time, the radar will remain down through
at least Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Surf Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for MDZ025.
NC...None.
VA...High Surf Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for VAZ099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ650-652-654.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/MRD
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ



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