Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 250524
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
124 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach the area from the southwest tonight
and Friday, while a trough approaches the mid-Atlantic region from
the west. Trough will track across the region Saturday before a
ridge builds over the region on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1255 AM EDT Friday...

Off and on light rain will remain possible overnight. The best
chance will be over S/SW VA as moisture moves NE and into the local
area (especially towards sunrise). Cloudy skies will keep
lows in the upper 50s to around 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

An upper-level trough, that is located over the Midwest, will
merge with the remnants of T.S. Beta, that is currently centered
over central Mississippi Friday. There will be a threat for
heavy rainfall Friday morning, mainly along and south of the
VA/NC state-line. The axis of heaviest rain will be located
along a surface warm front. Models have not been in good
agreement of the placement of the warm front. The most likely
position will be across the I-40 corridor in NC and extending
east towards the northern Outer Banks. However, there are some
models that show the warm front and the heavy rain slightly
farther north, closer to the Albemarle Sound. Rainfall amounts
are expected to be 1-1.25" along and south of the VA/NC state-
line, 0.50-1" across central/eastern VA, and less than 0.50"
across MD Eastern Shore. High temperatures will be below average
because of the cloud cover and rain. Highs will range from the
mid-60s for central VA, and around 70 elsewhere.

The upper-trough will remain west of the area, over the
Appalachian Mountains, Friday night as the warm front lifts
north of the area. There will continue to be a chance of
showers into Friday night (60-70%), Temperatures will likely
reach their minimum Friday evening in the low to mid 60s and
increase as we approach sunrise. Dew points will also be
increasing Friday and remain high for the weekend (upper 60s-
low 70s).

The shortwave trough aloft will move off our coast late Saturday
morning-early Saturday afternoon. This will take most of the
chance for showers with it. Rain chance on Saturday morning will
be 50-60% and decrease from SW to NE. Rain is not expected to
be heavy, but there could be brief periods of heavy rain. High
temperatures will be in the upper 70s to near 80 with less
cloud cover in the afternoon. Overnight temperatures will
remain warm. Lows Sunday morning will be in the low to mid 60s.

Mostly dry conditions on Sunday as high pressure at the surface
and aloft is expected to be centered over the Mid-Atlantic
region. 850mb temperatures of 14-15C with decent mixing should
support high temperatures Sunday in the low/mid 80s for much of
the area. It will be quite humid too Sunday with dew points in
the upper 60s and low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

A potent upper trough is progged to dig into the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday pushing a cold front
toward the area. Still mild ahead of the front with forecast
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Monday, after morning lows in
the mid/upper 60s. The ECMWF and GFS have come into a better
agreement on timing of the rain. Most likely timing will be
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. There will be showers
ahead of the cold front Tuesday morning, and high temperatures
Tuesday will be slighter lowers (mid 70s). Temperatures behind
the cold front will cool. High temperatures will be 70-75 and
lows temperatures will be in 50s for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions to start the 06Z TAF period. Ceilings fall to
MVFR and shower coverage increases on Friday as low pressure
slowly drifts closer to the area. Only exception is SBY where
rain chances are the lowest during the period, and ceilings are
expected to remain VFR. Guidance suggests that IFR ceilings may
try to creep in after 00Z, but for this TAF issuance will hold
ceilings at MVFR. Winds are light and variable this morning,
becoming E/SE by Friday afternoon at PHF/ORF/ECG, and S/SW at
RIC/SBY. After 00Z winds at all locations should be E/SE. Wind
speeds during the period generally 10 kts or less.

Sub-VFR ceilings likely to remain through Saturday until the
shortwave moves through the area, and then improving conditions
expected for Sunday with high pressure building into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Latest analysis shows weak high pressure over the Carolinas sliding
and off the SE coast. The remnant low of Beta was tracking across AL
and MS with moisture streaming well out ahead of the system. Winds
have remained generally S to SW 10 kt today and these conditions
will persist through tonight and Friday. Wind direction may become a
little variable Friday afternoon with periods of showers. Some high
res guidance suggests winds become NE from Cape Charles south
reacting to a potential in-site wedge, but remain 10 kt or less.
This would be a short term wind shift across a portions of the
southern VA waters if it were of occur. Seas have decreased to 2 ft
this afternoon and will persist through Friday.

Winds will be southeast come Saturday and have increased forest
winds to 15 kt over the lower Bay and coastal waters from
Parramore Island South. The increase in southeast winds Saturday
is in response to approaching broad low pressure moving across
the Carolinas and some weak low level jetting ahead of the low.
Waves in the Bay increase to 2 ft and seas of 2 to 3 ft are
expected over the coastal waters Saturday. Winds decrease Sunday
to a south wind around 10 kt as the pres gradient relaxes. Seas
will drop to 1 ft with waves 1 ft or less on the Bay.

Southerly winds increase some again Monday late ahead of the next
system and SCA conditions are possible come Tue into Wed over the
lower Bay as winds continues to increase ahead of the next low
pressure systems.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...AJZ/CP
AVIATION...CMF
MARINE...JAO


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