Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 161358
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
958 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the local area this morning, then stalls
over the Carolinas this afternoon. An area of low pressure
moves along the front tonight, with high pressure building back
in from the north later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 955 AM EDT Tuesday...

A cold front has moved S of the Albemarle sound this morning,
with the wind now NNE for much of the area, with gusts to 15-20
mph closer to the coast. Temperatures have dropped into the
upper 50s to mid 60s under a mostly cloudy to overcast sky.
Light showers continue to pass over the region, mainly over
central/srn VA and NE NC. Most showers move offshore by aftn,
with only a lingering 20% chc over srn VA/NE NC. A weak wave of
low pressure will begin developing on the front invof GA/SC
this afternoon, and -RA may begin to arrive over srn/SW areas in
FA toward evening. Highs today tricky...but should occur around
this morning for most places (in the 60s/u50s N), then hold
steady or fall the rest of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

In nearly zonal flow aloft...weak lo pres will track by S of the
FA tonight...spreadings -RA across srn/SE VA-NE NC. Will have
PoPs to 50% as far N as about WAL-FVX...w/ 60-80% along-S of a
MFV-AKQ-LVL line. Otherwise...mostly cloudy tonight w/ lows from
the m-u40s N to the m50s over NE NC.

Clouds/-RA likely hang on over far srn/SE VA and NE NC Wed
morning. Otherwise...drying/clearing begins from the NW w/
Canadian hi pres centered invof central/nrn Plains.
Initially...low level CAA will be weak (on Wed) allowing for
highs to range from the 60s to low 70s. Canadian high pressure
to the NW will push the stalled front off the coast by Wednesday
afternoon and ending the chance for PoPs across the region.
Wednesday night will likely be the coolest night of the season
thus far with cool hi pres building over the region and a clear
sky. Lows will likely drop into the m-u30s to l40s for the
Piedmont into portions of the interior coastal plain and m40s-
l50s at the coast in SE VA- NE NC.

Sunny and cool Thursday with high pressure over the region.
Highs in the u50s-around 60F, w/ dew points in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday...

This period starts off with a 1030+ mb high pressure system
over the area Friday morning. Combo of clr skies along with
nearly calm winds allows for max radiational cooling. MEX
numbers suggest widespread mid-upr 30s for lows except in the
40s along the coast. Thus, the confidence for patchy frost
across the Piedmont is increasing.

The high quickly moves offshore Fri with mid-high level
moisture quickly spreading east from the system to the west. Day
starts off with sun, then increasing clouds. Dry with highs in
the 60s.

The next cold front is forecast into the area Fri night then
moves south into the Carolinas Sat. Data suggests southern
stream energy getting tapped and ejecting NE along the front.
Thus, moisture returns rather quickly and will increase PoPs to
40-70% Fri night. Best moisture flux / lift Sat morning...esp E
and S...then gets pushed SE Sat aftn. PoPs 30-50% N...60-80% S
and E thru 18Z/20 (Sat)...then start tapering pops off NW-SE
after 18Z/20. Lows Fri night mainly 50-55F. Highs Sat in the
60s.

The front and pcpn push offshore Sat night so will hold onto
20-30% PoPs Sat evening. Becoming mostly clear Sat night. Lows
in the 40s to low- mid 50s along the se coast.

Another high pressure system builds into the area early next week.
Strong CAA Sun will diminish late. Highs mid 50s nw to mid 60s se.

The high builds over the area by 12Z Mon. Clear skies / diminishing
winds results in another cold night with widespread lows in the mid-
upr 30s except the low-mid 40s along the sern coastal areas. Mstly
sunny and cool Mon. Highs 55-60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 710 AM EDT Tuesday...

Cold front will be pushing S through NE NC in the next couple of
hours. Generally VFR conditions expected today...BKN-OVC CIGS
generally aoa 3kft. Lo CIGS along w/ -RA and flight
restrictions this evening/tonight into Wed morning...mainly
across srn/SE VA and NE NC as low pressure tracks along the
stalled front. Conditions improve Wed (afternoon) through Fri as
cool dry hi pres builds into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 425 AM EDT Tuesday...

Early this morning, a cold front was pushing into the nrn
waters. The front will drop thru the remainder of the waters
thru this morning, with SW or W winds 10-15 kt, shifting to the
NW then N 10-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt. Will maintain
SCA`s for the entire Ches Bay, the Lower James, and all coastal
zns except the NC waters until 11 am this morning,

NNE winds will diminish to 5-15 kt by late this aftn, as the
frontal boundary drops farther S into NC. A weak wave of low
pressure moves east along the boundary and off the coast tonight
thru Wed morning. Late Wed thru Fri, the center of cool high
pressure will build fm the Plains eastward into and over the Mid
Atlc region. This will result in strong NW or N winds for Wed
night thru much of Thu. So, SCA`s will need to be re-issued for
most of the waters for this time period later today or tonight.
Quiet marine conditions are then forecast for Thu night and Fri.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1000 PM Monday...

Numerous river flood warnings continue on the Nottoway,
Meherrin, Appomattox basins. Also, have re-issued the areal
flood warning for locations along the Mattaponi River where the
level is still steady or slowly rising at Beulahville and a new
warning for Bryants Corner SE of KEMV. See FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ for
site-specific details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652-654-656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...AKQ


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