Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 140029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
829 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region into Sunday morning.
A disturbance moves in from the west Sunday night, and will be
slow to cross the area Monday with widespread showers lasting
into Tuesday. Warmer and drier conditions return late this
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

The latest WX analysis indicates ~1022mb sfc high pressure
centered from the eastern Great Lakes into the local area, with
low pressure over the upper MS Valley. Aloft, a strong upper
low is centered over New England. The flow aloft is from the NW
around the upper low to our NE and a strong upper ridge extending
from the southern Plains to the Rockies. Very pleasant by
August standards across the region with mostly sunny skies,
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and dew pts
generally 50-55F inland and in the upper 50s to around 60F at
the coast. PWAT value off this morning`s 12Z WAL sounding is
0.61" (or below the 10th percentile for the time of year).
Cool and dry this evening/tonight with mostly clear skies
(though highs clouds will begin to thicken a bit over the region
later tonight). Guidance has trended a few degrees warmer in
response to the clouds but have generally kept lows on the cool
side of MOS/NBM given the low dew pts and uncertainty as to how
thick the clouds will get overnight. Overnight lows in the mid
50s for much of the area with low-mid 60s for areas near the
immediate coast.

Mean upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS on Sunday and
begins to amplify through the day as shortwave energy dives SE
towards the local area from the western Great Lakes/upper
midwest. This will allow a weak surface low to develop and move
toward the area Sunday evening. Will maintain slight chance
PoPs across the far NW during the late afternoon. Afternoon
high temperatures remain pleasant, ranging from around 80F NW
where clouds thicken/become mostly cloudy earliest, to the low
to mid 80s elsewhere under partly cloudy skies on avg.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

PoPs spread slowly east Sunday night into early Monday. QPF is
expected to be very light with this initial activity. With more
clouds, overnight low temps Sun night will be in the 60s, or about 5-
10 degrees warmer than Saturday night as deep layer moisture slowly
increases.

Monday will feature chance to likely PoPs (highest W and lowest SE)
as weak low pressure moves over the region. Latest model guidance
continues to depict the inland low weakening underneath the upper
low with a secondary, stronger area of low pressure developing
offshore. This disconnect will limit the amount of instability that
can be realized on Monday afternoon. Will have a small area with chc
tstms in south central VA and interior NE NC, where models show the
highest instability, with only a slight chance of thunder elsewhere.
The support aloft remains decent given the upper dynamics but the
threat for any strong to severe storms will likely be well south of
the local area. Clouds and showers will limit afternoon heating over
much of the area with highs in the low to mid 70s NW 1/2 of the area
with highs into the lower 80s SE. Showers continue into the
overnight period with diminishing chances for thunder by mid
evening. Low temps fall into the mid to upper 60s. The upper level
trough will slowly shift to the NE on Tue but the trends are slower
so have raised PoPs to high chc to likely across the region.
Remaining well below avg for highs: lower-mid 70s for most except
around 80F NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Models indicate that the trough will become a closed upper- level
low over New England by mid-week, then slowly washing out over
northern New England or eastern Canada late in the week.  This will
lead to a drier end to the week, but keeping a slight chance for
afternoon convection Wed, mainly dry Thu. By Fri-Sat, models are
showing the chc for moisture to get pulled back N into the region as
the next upper trough develops over the south-central CONUS. Will
have at least 20-30% chc PoPs Fri-Sat aftn. Temperatures will remain
below average initially, then trend closer to avg Fri-Sat. High
temperatures on Wednesday will likely remain in the upper 70s to low
80s with at least a low chc for showers and aftn cloud cover. High
temperatures will slowly climb by the end of the week to the low to
mid 80s, possibly upper 80s Fri- Sat. Low temperatures will
generally be in the upper 50s to mid 60s inland and mid 60s to low
70s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 830 PM EDT Saturday...

High pressure is centered over the region as of 00z. VFR under a
clear sky with a light NE wind. Mostly clear and VFR tonight
into early Sunday morning with a calm to very light ENE wind.
High clouds increase Sunday as low pressure approaches from the
NW. The wind will shift to E or SE 5-10kt as high pressure
slides offshore.

There is an increasing chance of showers later Sunday night into
Monday, primarily from W to E, with a few tstms possible Monday
afternoon/evening. Unsettled conditions and flight restrictions
are likely Monday night into Tuesday. Gradually improving
conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday as low pressure
slowly departs to the NE.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

High pressure is centered over the region through Sunday night
with light NE to E winds of 5-10 kt. High pressure will slide out
over the Atlantic Ocean early Monday as a storm system approaches
the coast from the west. ENE winds will increase slightly on Monday
as a low pressure forms over interior NC. The low pressure is
expected to move off the NC coast then track NE over the Atlantic.
Winds will become NE and increase on Tuesday as the low tracks east
of the VA and MD coasts. Winds on Tuesday are expected to be ~15 kt
with gusts ~20 kt. Seas will increase from 2-3 ft Sunday and Monday,
to 3-4 ft on Tuesday. The low pressure may strengthen further as it
moves towards southern New England, but may send a swell SW towards
our local coast waters Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Therefore,
seas may increase to 4-5 ft, and possibly up to 6 ft off the MD
coast Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Winds on Wednesday are
expected to be 10-15 kt.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/RHR
LONG TERM...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...CP/TMG


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