491
FXUS64 KBMX 241847
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1247 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025

GOES-East water vapor imagery and mesoanalysis are depicting a
shortwave trough moving across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
currently, with clouds now developing along the southern
Appalachians. A few cumulus clouds will persist through the
afternoon generally east of I-65 as the trough axis is now moving
into Central Alabama from the west. As such, we`ve had a quick
warm-up into the mid 40s late this morning with southwesterly
winds. However, it looks like winds will become more westerly, if
not northwesterly, soon. If so, some cold air advection noted on
mesoanalysis suggests temps may have already neared their
respective highs for the day. I was hesitant to bump them up much
more than a degree or two from previous.

Otherwise, we`ll have to get through another cold night tonight
as high pressure moves into the area with very dry air remaining
in the region. Lows will be in the upper 10s to the low 20s into
tomorrow morning thanks to efficient radiational cooling. The
high pressure center will shift to our east by tomorrow afternoon
allowing for a more evident warm-up thanks to a light southerly
breeze. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s are forecast with a
few upper-level clouds.

It`s been a pleasure, Central Alabama.

40/Sizemore

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1231 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025

Very little change with this long term forecast update. We open up
the forecast with moisture steadily increasing as a warm front lifts
across the southern part of the state. A weak H5 shortwave will help
aid in lifting, providing a moderate to high (30-70%) chance of rain
Sunday night into Monday morning. With instability lacking,
expecting mostly showers with this activity. Forecast soundings
reveal a fully saturated profile so we could see some brief periods
of heavy rainfall. QPF amounts look to remain generally less than an
inch. Shower activity will gradually wane through the day Monday as
the shortwave departs the region and drier air works into the
region behind a weak boundary.

The remainder of the long term appears to be a bit more active but
there is also a fair amount of uncertainty. The aforementioned
boundary looks to stall and wash out across the southeast as an
upper level closed low parks itself over the Baja coast. Bouts of
H5 vorticity will spread through the area ahead of this feature
which may spark some precip by the middle of the week as moisture
begins to return. By the end of the work week, the upper low
begins to lift across the Southern Plains as another, potentially
stronger, front pushes south across the state.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Winds this
afternoon should favor a westerly direction at 8-12 kts with a few
higher gusts. Winds calm this evening/overnight, becoming
southerly tomorrow afternoon at 5-7 kts.

40/Sizemore

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A shortwave moves through today, albeit dry. With the relative
increase in moisture today, although not that much, RH values will
be slightly higher, but will still be in the 30s to low 40s.
Although a few upper 20s may be possible in the southwest. Saturday
will be another dry day with RH values back into the low to mid 20s
to 30s. Moisture returns Sunday with a wetting rain possible for the
area Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. After a brief lull,
rain chances return by the middle of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     18  50  24  48 /   0   0   0  20
Anniston    21  51  28  52 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  22  50  30  48 /   0   0   0  20
Tuscaloosa  21  51  31  50 /   0   0   0  30
Calera      22  50  30  51 /   0   0   0  20
Auburn      23  49  30  53 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  22  52  30  55 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        20  51  29  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...40
LONG TERM....95/Castillo
AVIATION...40