Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 150542
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1242 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0644 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/

A surface cold front has just moved south of the I-20 area at this
writing. The front was slowly catching up to the pre-frontal
trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing along
the pre-frontal trough and along several outflows from convection
this afternoon. SBCAPE values still remain around 2500 with Bulk
Shear values around 20. Precipitable Water values were around 1.7
south. Low level lapse rates were still high in the southern
areas. The instability, some shear, DCAPE values around 1000 will
lead to strong to severe storms for the next few hours south. The
strongest storms will have the capability of producing small hail
and wind gusts to around 60 mph. The storms will wind down with
the loss of isolation and drier air moving in from the north. No
significant changes have been made to the ongoing forecast at this
time.

75

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/

Wednesday through Friday.

No significant changes to forecast. Rain free conditions with
lower humidity values Wednesday and Thursday. Humidity will begin
to increase on Friday due to northward intrusion of moisture in
advance of Gulf of Mexico tropical system. Isolated showers or
storms possible Friday across the far southern counties, with
increasing rain chances will occur over the weekend as deeper
moisture works into area.

58/rose

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 0300 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/

Wednesday through Friday.

Deep-layer northerly flow will stretch across the Mississippi
River Valley on Wednesday and will extend into the Deep South.
This is a result of an amplified upper-level pattern featuring a
broad and prominent ridge near the Four Corners and a longwave
trough across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a broad
footprint of high pressure and relatively dry air will remain in
place along and east of the Mississippi River for Wednesday and
Thursday before the pattern begins to transition on Friday. By
then a transient and south shortwave is progged to eject across
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region with a flattening of
the pattern aloft. Regardless, drier tropospheric air will remain
across Central AL through at least Friday with medium-range
progged PWs ~1.0" or less. Dewpoints should remain in the 50s and
60s. There are no mentionable PoPs mainly for these reasons.
Afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s are forecast through
this time.

Saturday and Sunday.

While weather remains quiet for the majority of the upcoming week,
unsettled weather is forecast across portions of the southwest
Gulf of Mexico. The NHC continues to monitor this area. Their
latest Tropical Weather Outlook forecasts a 50% chance of
tropical cyclone development near the Bay of Campeche within the
next 5 days. Regardless of organized tropical cyclone development,
medium-range guidance brings this system northward by the end of
the week. Its surrounding field of tropical moisture is expected
to spread northward across the Gulf Coast into the Deep South.
With resultant moisture advection via southerly low-level flow
across Central AL, PoPs were increased for Saturday (30-40%) and
Sunday (40-50%).

40/Sizemore


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals for this TAF period.
Drier air continues to slowly move into Central AL from the north
with mainly calm winds. Northern terminals will experience SKC or
perhaps a few high cirrus clouds, and only scattered mid-level
clouds are present near MGM and TOI at this time. Will monitor
obs at TCL overnight as patchy fog is showing on satellite imagery
nearby the airfield. Not included in TAF at this time. VFR
conditions prevail with northwest to northerly winds at 7-10 kts
tomorrow afternoon.

Note: AMD NOT SKED until further notice at KASN due to ongoing
equipment issues. AMD NOT SKED also used for KTOI due to issues
with observation equipment.

40/Sizemore

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered storms expected through the early evening across areas
along and south of I-20. Drier air low level air will work into
Alabama from TN tonight and into Wednesday. This will result in
rain free conditions Tuesday through Thursday with minimum RH
values of 35-40% each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  61  86  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Anniston    90  62  86  63  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  91  64  87  64  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  93  65  88  66  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      91  65  87  66  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      91  65  87  65  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  95  66  91  66  92 /  10  10   0   0   0
Troy        95  67  90  65  92 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


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