262
FXUS64 KBMX 080834
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
334 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 8 2024

A cool start of the day for much of the area as brisk northerly
winds continue to bring in a touch of fall. A cold front currently
sits in our far southeastern counties and will stall out around this
location today. Meanwhile, a large and expansive high is in place
across the northern Plains and Ohio Valley. As the front washes out
to our south, it will meander around as an inverted trough across
the southeast. This feature will support a shower or two in the
southeast, this afternoon and Monday afternoon. Otherwise, just a
few clouds and temperatures in the 80s.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 8 2024

An area of zonal subtropical flow aloft will stretch across the
southern CONUS and Gulf Coast region at the beginning of the
forecast period (Tue). This will coincide with a split flow regime
featuring a low-level anticyclone situated across the eastern CONUS.
Relatively dry air will remain across Central AL on Tue with progged
PWs ~1.0" or less, and dewpoints in the 50s. Afternoon highs in the
80s are forecast, though we`ll see an increasing presence of mid- to
upper-level clouds throughout the day.

Medium-range guidance has become very consistent, both run-to-run
and model-to-model, with an organizing (tropical) system in the
western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. This is outlined in the latest
NHC tropical weather outlook with formation chances of 80%. This
system is progged to organize, moving toward the western and
northern Gulf Coast areas Wed into Thu. As such, an increasing
presence of tropospheric moisture is expected to begin on Wednesday
across southern portions of Central AL - areas closer in proximity
to an antecedent stationary front stalled near the I-10 corridor.
The system is then expected to move into the Lower Mississippi
Valley, likely in the Thu timeframe, bringing a large area of
tropical moisture into the Deep South. PoPs have been significantly
increased as a result, and these better match latest WPC QPF and
latest guidance. The system will continue toward the Tennessee
Valley into Friday, though appears to take on some extratropical
characteristics by then as it devolves into an open-wave trough.
However, we`ll need to watch for any overlapping instability &
kinematic parameters Thu night into Fri as most guidance suggests
a 40-50 kt low-level jet moving across our area.

There`s certainly increasing confidence for beneficial rains across
our region mid to late week, which is good news. However, interests
along the Gulf Coast and throughout Alabama should stay tuned to the
forecast over the coming days. We`ll be able to sort out any
potential weather hazards that are still unclear at this forecast
range.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT SUN SEP 8 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Winds will
range from 5 to 9 knots from the north or northeast in the
afternoon. Calm winds again after 02z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front has moved across Central Alabama and features
noticeably lower dewpoint values. This drier air will support
lower RH values this afternoon, with values as low as ~25% near
the Bankhead. Minimum Rh values in the 30-40% range are forecast
near and north of Interstate 20. Northerly to easterly 20 ft.
winds of 5-12 mph are forecast this afternoon. Drier conditions
will remain across Central Alabama for the next few days with
easterly winds. More widespread rain chances make a return
Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  57  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    84  59  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  84  62  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  84  61  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      84  62  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      83  64  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  87  65  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
Troy        85  64  83  65 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore
AVIATION...16