Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 230808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
308 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023


(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2023

With a tropical system to our east and a cold front well to our
west, high pressure will remain in control through the weekend.
Northerly flow will continue to keep dry conditions over the region.
Limited clouds and plenty of sun will allow the area to heat into
the mid 80s to a few low 90s in the south each day. Fair skies at
night with lows in the 60s.



(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2023

Starting off the period, Ophelia will be weakening as a post-
tropical system over the Mid-Atlantic, while a weak mid-level low
that develops at the southern end of Ophelia`s associated trough
will be spinning near the Yucatan. Upstream, an upper low over the
Red River (of the North) Valley will become stationary as an
anticyclone strengthens near James Bay, while the associated
surface low weakens/occludes. A southern stream shortwave is
expected to cause convection along a trailing cold front over
OK/AR to potentially grow upscale into an MCS Sunday afternoon and
evening. Latest model consensus keeps this activity well west of
the area during the overnight hours Sunday night and will remove
PoPs from that period. Weak return flow in our southwest counties
will result in milder overnight lows there, while good
radiational cooling conditions continue in the northeast counties.

This MCS will probably weaken and/or dissipate across the Lower
Mississippi Valley Monday morning but may leave behind an MCV.
Mid-level moisture will be increasing from the west during the
day, but low-level moisture return will be lacking in the wake of
dry air pulled down by Ophelia, and easterly winds over the
northern Gulf will keep the better moisture shunted southward.
Moisture advecting from the west will still result in
precipitation chances Monday, mainly in the form of light rain,
but have slowed down the arrival of rain chances. With the slower
rain chances, high temperatures have been raised for Monday. The
shortwave/MCV and a weak boundary stalled in the vicinity of the
area will lead to continued rain chances Monday night into
Tuesday, but will keep them on the lower end given the lack of
better moisture/instability and uncertainty over how quickly the
shortwave moves to the east.

The upper low over the Upper Midwest will eventually begin to move
to the southeast and begin to shear apart by Wednesday in response
to a strong Pacific system upstream, with associated broad
troughing developing over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the
south of the mid-level anticyclone over James Bay. Meanwhile a
1032mb high over Quebec will result in a strengthening CAD wedge
down the East Coast. Some rain chances continue Wednesday into
Thursday, potentially due to shortwave activity around the trough
and the wedge front/potential isentropic lift over the wedge. But
coverage and placement of the rain chances remains uncertain, some
of which is due to whether the early week shortwave scours out the
moisture as in the quicker solutions, or begins to draw Gulf
moisture northward as in the slower solutions. Right now will keep
the highest rain chances in the 30 to 35 percent range focused on
Wednesday. Eventually dry easterly flow with the wedge should win
out and bring dry conditions Friday into the weekend.



(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2023

VFR conditions with light northerly winds for the period. A few
fair weather cumulus this afternoon, otherwise some passing




A dry air mass will be in place across West Alabama through Sunday
and across East Alabama through Monday. Minimum RH values today
through Monday will be 30 to 40 percent each afternoon, except in
West Alabama Monday afternoon where moisture and light rain
chances will begin to increase. 20ft winds will be northerly
Saturday, at 5-7 mph, decreasing slightly and becoming more
variable in direction on Sunday.


Gadsden     87  54  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    87  56  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  87  61  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  89  61  90  66 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      88  60  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      86  59  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  88  61  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        88  61  90  65 /   0   0   0   0




LONG TERM....32/Davis
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