Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 211443
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1043 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow dry weather with a gradual warming
temperature this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure centered over southern Quebec will slowly start to
build south and westward through the next 24 hours. This will
result in a weak...and further weakening...pressure gradient
across the area. As a result, subsidence will lead to clear
skies, and a lack of gradient will result in fairly light winds
as well. After a chilly start, temperatures will warm into the
60s.

Clear skies will remain over the area tonight, though
temperatures will begin their moderating trend from the depths
experienced in recent nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An area of elongated high pressure stretching from the Southern
Appalachians to Quebec will slowly center over the Mid-Atlantic
and drift just off shore by Thursday morning. This will provide
for quiet conditions through the period. Temperatures will
slowly increase from day to day with south to southwest flow and
as warm air advection from the west increases.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 60s to around 70, and warm to
the upper 60s to mid 70s for Wednesday. Low temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday night will be in the mid 40s across the higher terrain to
mid 50s near the lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak cold front passing through the area Thursday afternoon will
bring chance POPs for far northern NY including parts of the North
Country.

High pressure tracking from Quebec to the Gulf of Maine will provide
mostly quiet conditions from Friday through Saturday. The southerly
flow that results from this high pressure will increase
temperatures from the mid 60s and mid 70s on Thursday to the low
70s and low 80s on Saturday.

A deepening trough will track southeast out of the Northern Plains
Saturday night into Sunday. As this trough pushes east it will
continue to strengthen and pickup moisture with origins from the
Gulf of Mexico. This will provide the first opportunity for
widespread rain across the area in some time on Sunday when POPs
will increase from west to east through the day. Temperatures on
Sunday will range from near 70 to the upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through tonight under high pressure.

Except local IFR in river valley fog across the Southern Tier early
this morning and late tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday Night...VFR, except local IFR in early
morning and late night river valley fog across the Southern Tier.
Wednesday through Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain over the Saint Lawrence Valley
through Tuesday. A southerly flow will develop, but winds will
be light and waves negligible.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...Fries/TMA
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA



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