965
FXUS61 KBUF 102331
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
731 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory issued for Jefferson County for late tonight
through Wednesday morning for freezing rain near the Saint Lawrence
River.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms Wednesday through
Wednesday evening. A brief period of freezing rain will occur near
the Saint Lawrence River late tonight through Wednesday morning.

2) Low chance of severe thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

3) Gusty winds Wednesday through early Thursday, especially close to
the lakes.

4) A progressive system Friday into Friday night will bring snow,
rain and gusty winds to western New York.

5) Active pattern continues late this weekend into early next week
as another system may bring the chance of rain, snow, strong winds,
and a return winter-like temperatures to western New York.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms
Wednesday through Wednesday evening. A brief period of freezing rain
will occur near the Saint Lawrence River late tonight through
Wednesday morning.

An east-west oriented frontal zone will gradually strengthen across
the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening as the thermal
gradient tightens across the boundary. Moisture transport and
isentropic upglide across the frontal zone will increase, resulting
in showers and a few scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. The best coverage of rain and best chance of thunder will
be across Western NY, where a few brief downpours are likely.

The showers and thunder will diminish in coverage temporarily from
late evening through the early overnight hours as the frontal zone
moves northward.

Wednesday through Wednesday evening, multiple rounds of showers and
scattered thunderstorms will cross the eastern Great Lakes as
convectively augmented shortwaves and deep moisture move across the
region. The first round will enter Western NY early in the morning,
followed by several more through the day. A few storms may produce
brief heavy downpours. The final round of rain and thunder will
cross the area from west to east Wednesday evening along a strong
cold front.

A localized area of freezing rain is likely across the Thousand
Islands region late tonight through Wednesday morning as low level
northeast flow brings surface temperatures to near or just below
freezing in the Saint Lawrence Valley. Ice accumulations of up to a
tenth of an inch or so are possible over northern Jefferson County,
where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.

Rainfall amounts of 1.0" to 1.5" are likely across much of the
region from today through Wednesday night. The combination of rain
and snowmelt will continue to increase the flood risk east of Lake
Ontario. See the Hydrology section below for more details.

A few snow showers will develop late Wednesday night through
Thursday morning in the strong cold advection regime behind the cold
front, along with some limited lake enhancement east of both lakes.
The airmass quickly dries out, so accumulations will be limited to a
dusting for lower elevations up to a few inches for higher terrain
east of the lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low chance of severe thunderstorms late Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

Strong dynamics from a sharp trough and powerful cold frontal
passage will bring at least a chance of isolated severe
thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and evening. There will be
several rounds of thunderstorms Wednesday, but the severe weather
risk will likely be limited to the last round of storms in the late
afternoon and early evening along the cold front.

a 55-65 knot low level jet in the warm sector will bring high end
shear to the setup, but extensive cloud cover and multiple rounds of
showers will likely limit destabilization. The best chance of
sufficient surface based instability to support an isolated severe
risk will be across the Southern Tier, where SPC continues with a
Marginal Risk. The primary severe weather risk would be isolated
damaging wind gusts, with the risk conditional on sufficient
destabilization.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Gusty winds Wednesday through early Thursday,
especially close to the lakes.

A strong 55-65 knot low level jet will cross the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday through Wednesday evening. The strongest winds aloft will
be confined to the warm sector of the system, with warm advection
and poor lapse rates limiting the mixing potential. Nonetheless, a
few gusts may reach or exceed 40 mph Wednesday through Wednesday
night, especially on the lake plains. Areas near the eastern shores
of Lake Ontario from Oswego up to Watertown will have the best
chance of seeing advisory criteria winds in the post-frontal cold
advection regime as the surface low continues to deepen moving
across southern Quebec. Gusts may reach 50 mph here overnight
Wednesday night.

Farther west, it will be windy in the post-frontal cold advection
Wednesday night, but gusts may generally be in the 35-45 mph range
and just shy of Wind Advisory criteria.

KEY MESSAGE 4...A progressive system Friday into Friday night will
bring snow, rain, and gusty winds to western New York.

A progressive, but deep surface low will move across the Great Lakes
region Friday with another round of precipitation across the region.
Ensemble guidance has continued to narrow down the track of this
system across northern MI into southern Ontario that will result in
a tight mslp gradient pattern over western NY. While not an ideal
track based on local wind event climatology, strong winds still
appear likely Friday into early Saturday. The median of grand
ensemble members sits above 50 kt for southwesterly 850mb winds
Friday afternoon with strong winds continuing to persist behind the
system`s cold front turning westerly. This CAA will continue to
support vertical momentum transport headed into the evening hours.

While snowfall should be the dominant precipitation type for this
event with temperatures aloft mostly below freezing, marginal 850mb
temperatures and mid-30s surface temperature sliding into lower
lying areas will likely result in some rain mixing in. This is
especially true across areas north of I-90 to the southern Lake
Ontario shoreline during the afternoon hours Friday. Higher
elevations of the Allegany`s and Tug Hill region will remain all
snow. Deeper synoptic moisture with this system will be pulled away
early Saturday morning as this system departs into the Canadian
Maritimes. Latest NBM probabilities of exceeding 4" of snowfall are
low (20-30%) across the Boston Hills and medium (40-65%) over the
North Country, including the Tug Hill plateau.

KEY MESSAGE 5...Active pattern continues late this weekend into
early next week as another system may bring the chance of rain,
snow, strong winds, and a return winter-like temperatures to western
New York.

As the active wave train continues across the northern CONUS, a
stronger push of colder air will dig a deeper, larger scale trough
across the eastern half of the US late this weekend into early next
week. This larger scale system looks to have an expansive warm
sector with warm southerly flow driving temperatures back above
normal briefly Sunday as the warm front lifts north with
precipitation traversing the region. Additional precipitation will
accompany the system`s cold front early Monday while also leading to
areas of lake effect snow showers under northwest flow in the
system`s wake. Latest guidance from the grand ensemble places
probabilities of 850mb winds >50 kt at 60-80% with a deepening
surface low moving northeast from eastern MI across southern Ontario
into Quebec that may need future monitoring for strong wind
potential. Plenty of uncertainty still needs to be resolved with the
track of this system based on ensemble guidance, which will have
ramification to ptype and strength of winds across western NY for
Sunday afternoon through Monday. The majority of this uncertainty
surrounds the timing for this system based on latest cluster
analysis. The interquartile range for 850mb temps is quite wide
between 2 to -12 degC early Monday morning, but most members are in
agreement with eventually dropping around -15 to -20 degC, below the
climatological 2nd percentile for mid-March.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS, a few showers with embedded MVFR flight conditions
are found across the region. Farther to the west a southwest flow
over Lake Erie is bringing a marine layer inland, with low ceiling
heights near KIAG/KBUF. As winds become more northeasterly through
the night, flow from Lake Ontario may linger these low ceiling
heights.

There will be a relative lull in showers after 03Z, with just a
chance of a few scattered showers across Western NY and the North
Country.

Tomorrow, low pressure over southern Michigan in the morning will
deepen as it moves northeast across Ontario and into Quebec by
Wednesday night. Numerous rounds of showers and scattered
thunderstorms will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through
Wednesday evening, with local MVFR/IFR in the heavier downpours.
There will also be a period of localized freezing rain late tonight
through Wednesday morning right along the Saint Lawrence River north
of KART where surface temperatures will hover near or just below
freezing.

A strong low level jet will propagate across the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday. This may initially produce some low level wind shear
Wednesday morning before surface gusts increase. Gusts may reach or
exceed 30 knots Wednesday afternoon, especially across far Western
NY.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Rain and scattered thunderstorms early, then some
light snow showers overnight. MVFR/IFR conditions. Windy.

Thursday...Areas of MVFR/IFR with a few light snow showers likely
early, improving to mainly VFR. Windy.

Friday...Areas of MVFR/IFR with rain/snow showers likely. Windy.

Saturday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of a snow shower. Windy.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR with rain and snow likely. Windy.

&&

.MARINE...
A frontal zone will sag south across Lake Ontario this evening, with
northeast winds increasing and producing Small Craft Advisory
conditions along the south shore of the lake. Winds will diminish
late tonight as the frontal zone begins to move back north across
the lake.

Low pressure will then move from southern lower Michigan Wednesday
morning to southern Quebec by Wednesday night, with a strong cold
front crossing the lake Wednesday evening. West winds will rapidly
increase following the cold frontal passage, with a period of gales
likely on Lake Ontario Wednesday night through early Thursday
morning. Winds will gradually diminish later Thursday.

A series of low pressure systems will cross the Great Lakes Friday
through early next week, with multiple rounds of gale force winds
likely.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ongoing well above average temperatures will continue to support
rapid snowmelt across the North Country through Wednesday.
Significant snowpack and SWE remains across the higher terrain
of the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks. Rain will bring
another 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rain Wednesday through Wednesday
night over much of the region, including the North Country.

Rivers will continue to rise east of Lake Ontario from ongoing
snowmelt and rainfall. The Black River will likely flood
starting late Wednesday night or early Thursday, with flooding
continuing through the weekend on this slow responding river.
The latest forecast shows the Black River at Watertown reaching
the high end of Minor Flood Stage, but moderate stage is
possible by the weekend, which would result in more significant
impacts.

Flooding is also possible on many other rivers that drain the
Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks Wednesday night through
the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for
     NYZ007.
     Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon
     for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042-043.
         Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
         for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers/Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock/Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock