Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 260219
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1019 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will track across the region Wednesday with
showers and a few thunderstorms and breezy and mild conditions
ahead of the front. A few storms may become strong to severe.
High pressure will then build across our region Wednesday night
through Thursday with dry weather and seasonable temperatures.
There is a chance for more rain showers Friday with the next
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Late this evening a strong cold front is located across eastern
Michigan. A low-level jet ahead of this front is forecast to
strengthen to around 50 knots overnight, with this advecting
moisture and provide a focus for showers and a few thunderstorms
to develop. The majority of this will pass to or north of the
area, but radar shows that a significant area will move across
the Niagara Frontier late this evening. After this initial
wave, more showers and a few thunderstorms will spread further
into western New York with the advance of the cold front.

Temperatures late this evening should be near the overnight low,
with warm air advection overnight resulting in steady or slowly
rising temperatures. Due to weak surface based instability,
there is a low risk for severe weather overnight. However, with
increasing winds aloft a few strong to severe storms cannot
completely be ruled out.

The cold front will be near the Western Southern Tier around sunrise
Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered across the
forecast area with a more organized line of showers and
thunderstorms confined to the cold front. The forecast area will be
in a high shear environment Wednesday morning and although
instability will be weak due to the timing, strong forcing from the
cold front will allow some thunderstorms to become strong to severe
as they track eastward across Western NY through the morning. Clouds
will likely persist through the day on Wednesday however some
insolation will help instability increase for areas east of the
Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario. A Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms exists for the entire forecast area with the exception
of Niagara County and western Lake Ontario. The primary threat is
damaging winds.

The cold front will be through Rochester by 2 PM and the North
Country by 5 PM. Winds will become west behind the front and will
start to usher in cool, dry air. Temperatures will not follow a
diurnal trend across Western NY Wednesday. Highs in the upper
60s/ low 70s will be reached in the morning whereas highs in the
low to mid 70s will be reached east of Rochester towards the
early afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge of high pressure will expand across the northeast CONUS
Wednesday night. Clouds will continue to clear out with winds become
light providing a favorable radiating night. Looking at low
temperatures in the 40s, with some upper 30s possible in the
normally colder interior sections. River valley fog is also
likely.

High pressure will keep fair weather across the area for Thursday
and Thursday night. Temperatures look seasonable with most
daytime highs in the mid 60s and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

High pressure will slide off to the east Friday. Warm air
advection will ramp up as southwest flow increases ahead of the
approach of a weakening cold front. Forecast soundings show good
mixing so expect a breezy day, especially downwind of the
lakes. Shower chances will increase late in the day and into
Friday night, but with the weakening nature of the front
expect any shower activity to remain scattered, with best
chances from the Finger Lakes through the North Country.
Temperatures Friday should jump above normal with most highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aside from a few lake effect/enhanced rain showers Saturday morning,
and then again Saturday night into early Sunday downwind of the
lakes, expect it to be a seasonably cool, but mainly dry weekend as
high pressure builds into the region behind the passage of the cold
front. Uncertainty then begins to grow heading into early next week.
Models suggesting a frontal boundary becomes stationary somewhere
across the region as zonal flow develops with several waves working
along it, which may bring the chance for some showers Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z expect mainly a mix of VFR/MVFR flight categories
across the lake plains with a southerly flow helping to
downslope raise ceilings at BUF/IAG/ROC/ART. Meanwhile, JHW and
the rest of the Southern Tier should remain IFR or lower with
low level moisture likely to remain trapped. Otherwise, coverage
of showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread
overnight with localized lower conditions in heavy rain.

Showers and thunderstorms will track eastward across WNY
through the morning hours and across the North Country/KART
around midday. A few storms may produce strong to damaging wind
gusts. Winds become west behind the front with rapidly improving
conditions by Wednesday afternoon. Expect mainly VFR conditions
by 00Z Thursday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...Chance of showers. Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the lakes Wednesday. This front has the
potential to bring strong to severe thunderstorms with cold air
advection behind the front again kicking up the waves on the
Lakes. Winds will increase ahead and stay elevated past the
frontal passage Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
for the Lake Erie shore and Lake Ontario shore through late
Wednesday as outlined below. High pressure will then bring fair
weather through the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement from 9 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for NYZ001>007-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT
         Thursday for LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT
         Thursday for LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/HSK
NEAR TERM...Apffel/HSK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JM/TMA
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/HSK


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