Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 150844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
344 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Sunday/
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

All the precip has ended across the area with a cloud shield still
in place currently as the sfc low is situated across southern
Ontario and the upper low spinning over central MN. Some clear
patches developing in the stratus, with drier air moving in eroding
the clouds from the backside across NW IA and NE Nebraska currently.
This drier air should continue to erode the clouds and expect mainly
clear skies across much of the forecast area by sunrise to mid
morning. Only exception likely to be in the far north/northeast
where some clouds may linger longer into the morning/early afternoon
as the upper low translates eastward and the clouds skirt through
northern/northeastern Iowa. Otherwise with the cold air in place
today temperatures to be cool, only warming into the low to mid 40s
across the state. SFC pressure gradient still a bit tight, so could
have some breezy conditions. High pressure will build into the state
briefly late today and then shove south as another weak upper wave
drops through Ontario sending a reinforcing short of cold air into
the state Tuesday into Tuesday night. Some cloud cover is expected
with this frontal passage, however moisture is limited so
precipitation is not expected. High pressure will be in place for
Wednesday with westerly to northwesterly upper level flow pattern
setting up into the latter portion of the week and next weekend.
Thermal ridge will build into the state with a warming trend likely
by late week as H85 temps push back up to around +8-10C by Friday
which will be the warmest day of the period. However slightly colder
temperatures then expected into the weekend with the passage of
another dry cold front Friday night. A large area of Canadian high
pressure to build across the state for the weekend which should
result in another period of cooler, dry conditions. Only chance for
precipitation is late Thursday night with waa setting up for Friday
which may squeeze a shower out across the northeast, however
moisture still looking limited so likely expect dry conditions
through the entire forecast period.

As for the freeze warning across the area, the lingering cloud cover
has kept temps up across much of the area so far. However patches of
clearing have developed in the last hour or so allowing some sites
to fall to around 32, with the eroding back edge as well. Therefore
still expect many sites in the west/central/south to have a hard
freeze this AM. Some sites where clouds may linger longer in the
east/southeast may need another freeze warning tonight to hit below
32, however will not issue right now as will wait and see where
temps fall this AM to see which counties will need one for the cold
tonight. Therefore will either adjust the issuance toward sunrise
when have a better handle on which areas have been cold enough, or
let the dayshift issue for the remaining counties to match up with
offices to the east/south that have already issued for tonight.


.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night/
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Low VFR stratus to remain in place through much of the night, with
clearing expected toward sunrise across the northwest and then
through the morning hours in the south/southeast. Far north will
be under the impact the upper low and will likely see some stratus
in place through much of Monday before clearing out. Northwest to
westerly winds expected through the period. Some lingering light
snow at KOTM initially, then should be dry for the remainder of
the forecast period.


Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for IAZ023>028-



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