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000
FXUS64 KFWD 060921
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
321 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1130 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023/
/Through Thursday/

Despite a shortwave ridge aloft today, temperatures will be offset
by an increasing cirrus canopy through the afternoon hours with a
shortwave disturbance transiting over the top of the ridge. This
will hold high temperatures primarily in the 60s after a chilly
start in the 30s and lower 40s this morning. Surface high pressure
across the region will exit toward the Mississippi River Valley by
afternoon with southerly winds returning upwards to 10 mph, except
lighter across East Texas in closer proximity to the exiting high.

Occasionally gusty southerly winds 10 to 15 mph tonight combined
with the periodic cirrostratus will result in low temperatures
some 5 to 15 degrees warmer than previous mornings. Warmest
readings well into the 40s will occur along and west of I-35 where
the stronger southerly winds will prevail through daybreak
Thursday. A couple of lead disturbances will continue breaking
down the ridge with prevailing, more progressive zonal flow
expected through Thursday afternoon. This will result in continued
periods of clouds within the mid to upper levels of the
atmosphere. However, some periodic periods of partial sunshine and
increasing low level warm advection will parlay into afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s in the west, to the
lower to mid 60s in the east. No precipitation is expected as the
low levels will continue to remain fairly dry, though surface
humidity will be on the gradual increase.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Through the Middle of Next Week/

Our next rainmaker will emerge from the Intermountain West on
Friday, intensifying the warm/moist advection into the Lone Star
State. An insulating blanket of low clouds will begin the day,
with temperatures in the 50s, well above normal for early
December. Breezy south winds will continue on Friday with
afternoon temperatures reaching the 70s regionwide for the first
time this month. Highs will range from around 10 degrees above
normal in the Brazos Valley to more than 20 degrees above normal
across the Big Country. The clouds will be slow to erode in areas
east of I-35 where dew points will reach the 60s during the
afternoon hours.

As large-scale lift associated with the approaching system spreads
into the region, showers may begin to develop within Northeast
Texas as early as Friday evening. More widespread showers and
storms will accompany the system`s cold front, which will arrive
Saturday morning. Despite decent moisture for this time of year,
the diurnal minimum of boundary layer warmth should mitigate the
potential for strong updrafts. However, considerable shear could
allow yield a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds.
With the front arriving early in the day, gusty northwest winds
will resulting in falling temperatures. Some locations will see
afternoon temperatures more than 20 degrees cooler than the
previous day.

The brisk winds will continue Saturday night with wind chill
values falling into the 20s Sunday morning. A light freeze will be
possible in northern and western zones. Sunshine will help
temperatures recover into the 50s Sunday afternoon. The sun will
combine with the return of south winds on Monday to push the
mercury back up above 60F. Tuesday`s high temperatures will match
Monday`s as an increase in cloud cover arrests the warming trend.
The next rain chances will arrive midweek, currently just beyond
the scope of the 7-day forecast.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1130 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023/
/06z TAFs/

VFR with increasing cirrus/cirrostratus expected through the day
and especially by 00z Thursday and beyond. Light and variable
surface winds can be expected to become SE 5-8 kts by 18z, then S
10 kts tonight with an occasional gust > 15 kts possible.

05/Marty

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  47  69  57  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                63  43  67  57  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               58  39  63  52  70 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              62  44  68  55  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            62  41  66  55  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              62  46  68  57  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             62  40  66  55  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           64  43  68  57  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              64  43  68  56  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       67  43  72  55  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$