Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 060519

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1119 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

/06Z TAFs/

Concerns and challenges: Timing wind shift and veering surface
winds to the NW and FROPA...then wind speeds after 12z Friday.

A cold front, extending from a surface low near KSPS continues to
move through KABI/KSPS/KOKC areas at this hour. This feature was
moving progressively SE just in advance of a potent mid level
impulse over NW OK toward the Red River Valley at 05z. FROPA still
appears to be around 09z at DFW Metro terminals, then 11z-12z at
Waco and across Central TX. Otherwise, the one big change was to
remove MVFR cigs, as better saturation on the frontal inversion
within the 925mb layer will likely stay across SE OK/E TX into AR
and LA. NW winds will increase to between 15-20 mph by mid morning
with gusts 25-30 knots possible through early afternoon, before
decouple later in the afternoon allows for surface winds to veer
northerly and drop to around 10 knots or below by nightfall Friday

No precipitation is expected due to very dry low-mid levels, but
there will be plentiful cirrostratus off and on throughout the day
Friday into Friday night. Some spotty altostratus or altocumulus
may occur as well, but regardless, any cigs will be VFR category.



.AVIATION... /Issued 557 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019/
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns and Challenges: FROPA timing through DFW Metro and Waco
Regional airports after midnight Friday and brief potential for
MVFR cigs 15z-19z Friday.

A strong mid level impulse will continue to move ESE across
southern KS/OK area with a resultant surface low tracking across
southern OK this evening. The surface low will track into the
AR/LA/TX region by sunrise Friday, before tracking quickly into
the Lower MS Valley by Friday evening in response to its mid
level counterpart. As we await the surface low approaching the
terminals, much of the evening should see prevailing S or SSE flow
around 10 knots.

As the surface low tracks east overnight across southern OK, a
pre-frontal wind shift to the SW or WSW at 10-12 knots is
anticipated with FROPA expected at DFW Metro airports in the 09z-
10z Friday time frame, while occurring at Waco Regional airport
around 12z. Winds will then shift NW 15-20 knots with occasional
gusts in excess of 25 knots by mid morning. Wind speeds and gusts
will come down and continue to veer northerly around 10 knots or
less by nightfall Friday evening; as the dry and cool boundary
layer rapidly cools and winds decouple from the surface.

Moisture quality looks very limited with this system with better
mid level moisture likely remaining across OK tonight. Couldn`t
rule out a few sprinkles Friday morning with any brief MVFR
stratus from mid-morning through midday Friday, but at this time
I do not anticipate any significant precipitation being mentioned
in any of the TAFs with these features. Any MVFR cigs will be
short-lived as the frontal inversion quickly deepens and slowly
dries out by/after 21z Friday.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1256 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019/

/Today through Friday/

A shortwave trough currently located near the Four Corners region
will move quickly to the southeast over the next 24 hours. An
attendant surface low will move across the Texas Panhandle today,
then along the Red River of North Texas tonight. Veering surface
winds ahead of the system and subsequent downslope flow will
enhance the temperatures this afternoon, with highs still expected
to climb into the 70s despite the high cloud cover. A few
locations across the western zones may top out at 80 by late

The front will surge southeast through the region tonight,
clearing all counties by daybreak Friday. The lack of available
moisture will keep most locations dry as the front passes, save
for a few showers across the northeast counties. Thunder has been
removed from all grids based on the most recent guidance. Strong
cold air advection and the expectation of a post-frontal deck of
stratocumulus will lead to a cold and blustery Friday, with
temperatures staying mainly in the 50s.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 228 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019/

/The Weekend through Next Week/

The upcoming weekend appears predominantly rain/storm free with
near to above normal temperatures by Sunday. Next week, we will
have some changes to contend with as there will be a potential
for rain/storms and cooler conditions. Saturday should be warmer
than Friday and with a bit more in the way of sunshine and lighter
winds, it will not feel as brisk. Highs will be near climatological
values with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Sunday will feature
even warmer conditions as southwesterly downslope flow overspreads
the area culminating in highs in the mid to upper 70s. The breezy
conditions coupled with the dry airmass may necessitate another
low end fire weather threat.

Changes are expected for parts of the day on Monday as a front
dives southward through North Texas. We`ll likely remain a good 5
to 10 degrees above normal even in the wake of the front north of
I-20, with compressional warming across Central Texas yielding
temperatures 15 to nearly 20 degrees above normal. The front will
bring some rain/storm chances, initially across East Texas Monday
afternoon, with more widespread rain and isolated storms Monday
night into Tuesday. Rain amounts are expected to be less than 1/2
inch. In addition, breezy north winds will overspread the area as
the surface pressure gradient tightens thanks to the building high
pressure upstream across the Panhandles and southwest Kansas.

Starting Tuesday, we will see temperatures well below
climatological normals as CAA commences. Temperatures are likely
to be at least 10 degrees below seasonal averages. Fortunately, it
appears that any precipitation will come to an end before a bulk
of coldest air invades North and Central Texas. The ECMWF does
remain a "wet" outlier and keeps a bit more in the way of
precipitation with temperature near "freezing." Given how largely
displaced this solution is from the model consensus, I`m a little
hesitant to side with this solution. Trends will be monitored.
Mid-week and beyond, there will be a risk for additional showers
as a modest WAA regime sets up.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  60  40  60  45 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                52  64  40  62  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               52  60  40  59  43 /  30   5   0   0   0
Denton              49  57  37  59  44 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            50  58  38  59  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              52  60  40  60  46 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             52  61  40  62  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           53  63  42  62  45 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              52  66  40  63  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       47  58  34  59  43 /   0   0   0   0   0




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