Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191756

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1156 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

Post frontal stratus (MVFR ceilings) will translate slowly
eastward through the afternoon, clearing all TAF sites before 20Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through Sunday morning
with only a few high clouds.

A strong and gusty northwest wind will continue through the
afternoon between 20 and 30 mph, gusting to around 40 mph. The
pressure gradient will gradually relax through the afternoon with
wind speed slowly decreasing. Wind speed should remain above 15
knots for most of the evening, but will decrease overnight and
likely fall below 12 knots by sunrise Sunday. The wind will turn
back to the south Sunday afternoon, but remain below 12 knots.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 322 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019/
/Through Tonight/

Water vapor imagery reveals an impressive mid/upper shortwave
trough across the southern Plains early this morning. With an
approximately 100-kt 500-mb jet evolving east across Texas this
morning, the associated trough will continue developing towards
the Mississippi Delta today.

With heights rapidly rising over the southern High Plains,
strong subsidence is pushing a vigorous cold front southeast
across our region at present. The GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics
channel shows this evolution quite nicely via the rapid southeast
progression of a stratus deck closely tied to the front.

The evolution of the mid/upper trough is also yielding a narrow
band of rain/snow/sleet from Graham to Muenster, as of 300am,
possibly in association with a thin corridor of weak
frontogenesis, isentropic upglide, and favorable RH within the
approximate 700-550mb layer. This band should drift farther
east/southeast, reaching the I-35 corridor by 5-6am. Forecast
thermal profiles suggest a continued mixture of rain, snow, and
some sleet, owing to more rapid cooling of the boundary layer.
Regardless, temperatures in the mid/upper 30s (at the time of
arrival) and brief, transient nature of this precipitation should
preclude any notable road impacts.

All of this precipitation will weaken further and lift northeast
through daybreak, in conjunction with the northeastward departure
of saturation near the dendritic growth zone. We will be left
with cold temperatures and very windy conditions today. Near-term
guidance shows around 40 kt of flow near the center of a well-
mixed boundary-layer profile today. As such, bumped up gusts
across much of the area today. Isolated gusts up to 45-50 mph are
certainly within reason, once deeper mixing ensues. No changes
planned for the wind advisory, which continues til 00Z.

Skies will be clear tonight and winds should slacken some,
improving radiational cooling conditions. Expect a freeze area-
wide, with temperatures in the low 20s near the Red River.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019/
/Sunday through next Weekend/

An upper ridge will build eastward from the Rockies to the Plains
on Sunday as the upper low currently affecting the region heads
for the East Coast. After a bitterly cold start to the day, Sunday
temperatures will begin to moderate due to subsidence aloft an
plentiful sunshine. Temperatures should be mainly in the 20s at
sunrise, but will warm into the 40s and 50s Sunday afternoon. The
warming trend will continue on Monday as return flow increases
ahead of a deepening shortwave trough along the West Coast. Good
warm air advection should allow afternoon temperatures to climb
into the mid and upper 60s across the western half of the region,
and primarily in the 55 to 60 degree range across the east, with
overnight lows hanging around 50 degrees area-wide.

The West Coast trough will split into two separate pieces of
energy as it heads for the Rockies Monday night and Tuesday; the
first being an upper low which continues eastward across the
Plains, and the second being a trough which continues to deepen
and dig south-southeastward across Mexico. The northern system
will be accompanied by a strong surface low and attendant cold
front trailing to its southwest. The front will push southeast
into North Texas Tuesday as the surface low and its upper level
counterpart accelerate northeastward into the Midwest. This will
bring an abrupt end to the warm-up, with falling temperatures
Tuesday afternoon and evening expected behind the front.

Meanwhile, the southern trough will continue southeast across
Mexico Tuesday night before swinging eastward towards South Texas
and the Northwest Gulf on Wednesday. A few showers will be
possible along the front as it pushes through the region, but
better chances for precipitation will occur as a zone of
isentropic upglide develops north of he boundary. The position of
the upper low will place the strongest lift and best chances of
precipitation across South-Central and Southeast Texas, so rain
chances will be primarily limited to the southeast half of the
forecast area. Precipitation will exit to the east on Wednesday
and Wednesday night as the upper trough continues east across the
northern Gulf.

Deep troughing across the eastern CONUS still appears to be the
general upper level pattern Thursday through the weekend. Multiple
disturbances dropping southeast through the Plains will send
additional shots of modified arctic air southward into the area.
At this time, it looks like moisture will be lacking, so cold and
dry conditions will continue to be advertised in the day 4
through 8 portion of the forecast.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    40  25  49  38  61 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                45  26  51  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               38  22  44  32  55 /  40   0   0   0   0
Denton              40  22  49  37  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
McKinney            39  23  46  36  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dallas              40  27  48  38  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             41  25  47  35  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           42  27  47  35  59 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              48  28  52  36  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       42  23  53  39  63 /   0   0   0   0   0


Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-



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