Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 092037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
237 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2022

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 105 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2022/
/Through Sunday Morning/

The weak stationary front is currently draped across southern
North Texas/northern Central Texas. Though clouds and lingering
morning fog/mist are continuing to dissipate in spots across
North and Central Texas, conditions will stay pretty gloomy for
those near the boundary thanks to southerly surface flow
overrunning the stalled front. Cloudy skies near and behind the
front will observe afternoon highs in the 60s, while south of the
boundary will observe temps in the low-mid 70s as clouds continue
to dissipate and promote warming. Low chances for rain are
expected to persist near the front this afternoon, as seen by
light reflectivity returns intermittently moving across the KFWS
radar imagery.

The front will finally meander back north in the form of a warm
front overnight and should put most of the region back into the
warm, moist sector. Some low chances for showers will be possible
near and south of this boundary as returning southerly flow will
promote increased warm air advection over North and Central Texas.
Saturday morning low temperatures will remain warm in the mid
50s-mid 60s as increased WAA, moisture, and cloud cover keep the
region insulated.

Another cold front will move into North and Central Texas during the
day on Saturday as a mid-level shortwave trough translates
eastward, bringing increased rain chances along with it. Some
storms will be possible alongside the showers, but severe weather
is not anticipated with this round of precip. Most of the region
will observe temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Saturday
as the front will not knock on our door until the afternoon.
However, behind the FROPA highs in the low- mid 60s are expected.

The front will continue its trek southward late Saturday into Sunday
morning, shifting winds to the north behind the front and shunting
rain chances southward. A large temperature change is not
anticipated behind FROPA, as greater cold air is confined to the
north of the region. Nonetheless, a steep temperature gradient
will be present Sunday morning, with lows in the upper 40s in the
northwest, to the low 60s in the south/southeast.



/Sunday Onward/

There have not been any significant changes to the long term
period. The main weather story is the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms as an upper level trough translates across
the Plains and interacts with rich low level moisture early next
week. At this time, the best potential for severe weather would
be across the eastern half of the region on Tuesday. Given the
presence of strong shear, instability, and high moisture content,
there will be a threat for hail and damaging wind gusts, and the
tornado threat cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, expect much cooler
temperatures Wednesday through the weekend in wake of this system.
Highs will range from the upper 40s and 50s and lows in the upper
20s and 30s.


Previous Discussion:
/This Weekend Through Next Week/

Our extended period of unsettled weather will culminate with a
rainy frontal passage on Saturday. A surge of low-level warm/moist
advection will overwhelm our aging stationary front, deepening the
subtropical air mass the more well-defined cold front will
encounter. In addition to showers and storms along the slowly
advancing surface boundary, intensifying upglide above the
postfrontal air mass will maintain the rainy weather throughout
the day. Precipitable water values will soar above 1.50" along the
Red River, near record values for December, and these areas may
see 24-hour rainfall tallies exceeding an inch. While not drought-
busting amounts elsewhere, it should still be a wetting rain for
the entire region. The passage of a shortwave on Sunday will
finally allow the front to clear the region, ending the rain

For much of the region, Sunday will be the coolest day since the
previous Sunday, but high temperatures will still be above normal
across all of North and Central Texas. As a deep trough swings
through the Intermountain West on Monday, south winds will quickly
return, with steadily rising temperatures. As the cyclone enters
the Central Plains on Tuesday, it will force a Pacific front
through the Lone Star State. The is always going to be timing
differences at this time scale, but it`s looking more likely that
the north-south boundary will reach the I-35 corridor around
midday, with its main impacts in East Texas during the
afternoon/evening. An unseasonably warm and moist air mass will
greet the front with strong shear (850mb winds potentially
topping 50kts). The ingredients will be in place for severe
storms beginning Monday night and continuing through the frontal
passage on Tuesday. We will continue to assess this potential and
address the specific severe threats as the event approaches.

After Tuesday`s event, cooler and drier air will filter into the
region. The coolest weather so far this month will prevail during
the latter half of the upcoming week. By Thursday and Friday, lows
will be in the 20s and 30s, with highs only in the 40s and 50s.



.AVIATION... /Issued 1209 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2022/
/18Z TAFs/

MVFR to IFR will continue at all D10 sites. Northeasterly winds
and less than 10 kts will continue through this evening, but
become southerly with the passage of a warm front overnight. VCSH
will be possible through the morning and early afternoon hours on
Saturday. A cold front will make its way through D10 late in the
afternoon, with better chances for rain and storms as the front
passes. Winds will turn northerly around 10 kts behind the front.

ACT will continue to observe VFR, before decreasing back to MVFR
late this evening. IFR will overspread ACT after midnight as VCSH
are possible near the airport. Late Saturday morning, MVFR will
return ahead of an incoming cold front.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  71  53  63  53 /  30  90  80   5   0
Waco                63  76  55  67  52 /  10  40  80  10   0
Paris               61  67  53  61  52 /  60  90  80  10   5
Denton              60  67  48  61  49 /  30  90  70   5   0
McKinney            61  69  50  61  51 /  40  90  80   5   5
Dallas              63  72  53  63  54 /  30  90  80   5   0
Terrell             63  73  54  63  53 /  30  80  80  10   5
Corsicana           64  75  58  66  57 /  20  50  80  10   0
Temple              63  75  57  69  54 /  20  30  70  10   0
Mineral Wells       59  67  49  64  50 /  20  90  70   0   0



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