Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 182332
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
632 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/
Weather conditions throughout the TAF period should remain rather
quiet as an impressive 597 dam upper-level ridge remains anchored
over the Southwest and Southern Plains for the next several days.
Some stratus could sneak in close to KACT Thursday morning as
moisture surges north through southeast Texas...but any MVFR cigs
should remain confined to south of a KGYB to KCLL line. Winds have
fluctuated from south-southwesterly during the morning hours to
southeasterly during the afternoon hours. The TAFs split this
difference by showing winds from 170-180 through the period. TAFs
for all our sites are one-liner, south-flow, and VFR.

Godwin

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 353 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018/
/Tonight/
North Central Texas will remain under the steely grip of the
sprawling upper level high pressure ridge that extends from the
Great Basin southeastward to the NW Gulf of Mexico. The few ragged
cumulus clouds that struggled to life across the area this
afternoon will quickly dissipate early this evening, with just a
few high clouds persisting overnight. The only opportunity for
precipitation - albeit a slim one - will be in Lamar and Fannin
Counties over the next few hours, where a few scattered showers or
isolated storms may slip in from Southeast Oklahoma. This
activity should also come to an end during the mid evening.

Temperatures and heat indices will remain extremely warm well into
the evening hours, with HIs exceeding 100 until around 9 pm.
Overnight lows will remain in the lower 80s throughout the
Metroplex, while managing to slip into the middle and upper 70s in
the outlying areas of North Texas.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 353 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018/
/Thursday through Tuesday/

Temperatures will continue to warm as we move into Thursday, with
highs approaching, if not exceeding daily record highs. A vast
majority of the region will experience temperatures above 105
degrees, leading to the issuance of an Excessive Heat Warning.
Temperatures this hot are not typical North and Central Texas
summer temperatures, but rather only occur once every few years.
It will be dangerous for anyone spending an extended amount of
time outdoors. Proper precautions should be taken to prevent heat
related illnesses.

The upper level ridge centered across New Mexico will remain
nearly stationary through the weekend, with dangerously hot
temperatures continuing for the region. It is likely that the
Excessive Heat Warnings will need to be extended to account for
the very hot temperatures this weekend.

There will be no rain chances through the first half of next week,
leading to an increased threat for wildfires for most of the
region. The dry conditions and hot temperatures will help continue
to add stress to vegetation, increasing the fuels for fire starts.

An upper level trough is expected to dig into the Eastern United
States by midweek, helping to nudge the ridge westward. This
gradual westward shift will be a welcomed relief to North and
Central Texas as cooler temperatures (94-100 instead of 100-108)
and low rain chances are introduced for portions of the area
beginning a week from today.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82 107  83 108  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                78 106  79 107  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               79 104  79 106  78 /   0   0   5   0   5
Denton              79 108  81 108  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            79 105  81 107  79 /   0   0   5   0   0
Dallas              84 107  85 108  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             80 105  80 107  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           80 104  78 105  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              76 104  76 105  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       75 107  79 108  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM CDT Friday for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-156>161.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>093-100>104-
115>120-129>134-141>145-156>160.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ147-
148-162-174-175.

&&

$$

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