Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
213 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021/
/Today and Tonight/

The warming trend we`ve experienced the last few days will
continue into today as highs climb into the mid to upper 80s
across the region. For reference, the expected highs today are
5-10 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

The warm temperatures can be attributed to a gradual veering of
the winds later today, leading to compressional warming ahead of
an incoming weak front. Winds will remain out of the
south/southwest today, at times becoming breezy. As we approach
sunset, a slow moving front will be sagging southward from
northwestern North Texas. Given a lack of strong forcing for
ascent, this front should remain mostly precipitation free.

A corridor of slightly higher moisture content will precede the
front across North Texas early Thursday morning. Therefore, an
isolated shower cannot completely be discounted but coverage is
expected to remain below 15%. Locations that experience FROPA
prior to sunrise Thursday will see lows in the mid to upper 50s,
while those ahead of the front will be in the lower 60s.



/Thursday through Tuesday/

Warm and generally quiet weather is expected across North and
Central Texas late in the week through the weekend with only some
low rain chances Thursday night/Friday morning. The weather will
become more unsettled Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

A weak cold front will stall across North Texas Thursday,
resulting in slightly cooler temperatures generally north of the
I-20 corridor with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The rest
of the region will see highs mainly in the mid 80s. The cold front
should enter the region dry, however, a passing shortwave
Thursday night may provide just enough lift and moisture for a few
showers and storms. The shortwave will translate eastward Friday
morning, taking the low rain chances with it. Once the trough axis
passes to the east the cold front will lift north of the Red
River in response to a developing low pressure system in the west.
Plenty of sun Friday afternoon and the return of southerly winds
to the entire region will result in a warm afternoon with highs in
the lower and middle 80s.

Subtle ridging aloft and increasing southerly flow Friday night
and Saturday will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lows
in the 60s and highs Saturday in the middle and upper 80s.

Increasing low level warm/moist advection Sunday and Monday will
result in warm, humid and breezy conditions with morning low
clouds. Temperatures both mornings will be in the middle and
upper 60s with afternoon highs in the middle and upper 80s. A few
warm air advection showers are also not out of the question,
especially east of the I-35 corridor.

Some changes will begin to occur late Tuesday when a strong low
pressure system emerges out of the Rockies. Energy from this
system, coupled with abundant moisture, will yield increasing
shower/thunderstorm chances, especially Tuesday night and
Wednesday when a cold front moves across the region. The system
should remain progressive so the rain/storm chances will be brief
with drier and cooler air likely the latter half of next week.



.AVIATION... /Issued 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021/
/06Z TAFs/

Concerns...Low clouds developing early this morning. Wind shift
tonight ahead of an incoming weak cold front.

A weak shortwave is now moving across the eastern portions of
North and Central Texas, evident by the high clouds currently in
place. With a continued eastward movement, low clouds have begun
to develop across the Hill Country and will likely invade the
region in the coming hours.

MVFR can be expected initially in Waco, with a few hours of
BKN025 around sunrise. The forecast is a bit more difficult in the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex as guidance splits the region
regarding the presence of low clouds. With a veering flow
developing through the morning, it is most likely the
southern/easternmost terminals experience MVFR for a few hours. As
we continue through the early morning hours, trends will be
monitored closely in case there is a northwestward shift in the
trajectory/development of the MVFR.

Low-level mixing should help increasing ceiling heights late this
morning, but given continued moisture around 4 kft AGL, a few
afternoon cumulus clouds will be likely.

A weak front will gradually sag southward tonight, reaching the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex shortly after midnight Thursday
morning. Winds will likely remain light behind the front, but a
northwestward wind shift is is expected. Overall precipitation
chances will remain low along the front.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    85  63  83  62  84 /   0  10   5  20  20
Waco                84  63  84  62  85 /   0   5   5  10  10
Paris               82  59  80  56  79 /   0  10   5  20  20
Denton              85  57  82  56  84 /   0  10   5  20  20
McKinney            85  60  82  57  83 /   0  10   5  20  20
Dallas              86  64  84  62  84 /   0  10   5  20  20
Terrell             85  61  83  59  84 /   0   5   5  10  20
Corsicana           86  63  84  62  85 /   0   5   5  10  20
Temple              84  62  85  60  86 /   0   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       85  58  82  58  84 /   0  10   5  10  10



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