305
FXUS64 KFWD 151951
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
251 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024/
/This Afternoon through Monday Night/

Mostly sunny and warm conditions will continue for the rest of the
afternoon with low chances for thunderstorms mainly south of I-20.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows some puffy cumulus
developing across our southwest counties within an axis of
increasing instability. Weak northeast flow is spreading in across
the region and this will set up an area of focused low level
convergence within this instability axis this afternoon. We should
see an uptick in scattered convection mainly across the southern
half of the CWA this afternoon where we`ll have 20-30% PoPs. This
activity will be diurnally driven and will decrease in coverage
with loss of heating. Any storms that develop could produce some
gusty winds along with frequent lightning.

It should be quiet overnight with slightly cooler air in place
across our northeast counties where lows will drop into the mid
and upper 60s. Elsewhere, it`ll be mild with lows in the 70s.

Monday should feature mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper
80s and lower 90s as we start to see a little more influence from
mid level ridging and lower PWs.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Through Next Weekend/

Summer-like weather will continue for much of the upcoming work
week as weak upper level ridging prevails aloft. High temperatures
will be roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal, topping out in the
mid 90s for most locations each day. Gulf moisture will be
especially prevalent during the mid to late week time period,
resulting in warm and muggy mornings with low temperatures only
falling into the low to mid 70s. Heat index values may surpass the
triple digit mark for many locations, particularly Wednesday
through Friday. No chances for showers and thunderstorms are
currently expected through the end of the work week.

There is a glimmer of hope that we`ll return to a more active
pattern heading into next weekend as an upper level trough works
to break down the ridge over the southern CONUS. The NBM brings
low storm chances back to the region Friday evening, with storm
chances possibly lingering through the weekend. Stay tuned (and
keep your fingers crossed) as these details come more into focus
over the next several days.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR should prevail through the period with generally easterly
flow 5 to 10 kt. Wind direction may be more east-northeast across
D10 late in the period, but speeds should generally remain 10 kt
or less. There will some low storm chances around ACT this
afternoon but coverage is expected to be a little to low for
mention in the TAF. We`ll continue to monitor this potential.

Dunn

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  91  71  90  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                70  94  69  94  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               67  86  68  87  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              67  91  67  91  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            67  90  68  90  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              71  92  70  92  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             67  89  68  90  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           70  92  70  92  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              70  94  69  95  71 /  20   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  92  68  93  71 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$