Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200423

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1123 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

/Overnight through Saturday night/

Subsidence under a ridge of high pressure will keep seasonably hot
and rain-free weather in place across North and Central Texas
overnight through Saturday. A weak easterly wave over the Gulf
will drift westward through the day Saturday, bringing scattered
high clouds to the region. These clouds will have little to no
influence on temperatures with overnight lows cooling into the
middle and upper 70s. Highs Saturday will be similar to the past
several days with middle and upper 90s region wide. The breezy
southerly winds will continue through Saturday which will keep the
boundary layer well mixed and afternoon heat index values below

No major changes are expected Saturday night, but wind speeds may
be a bit lighter ahead of a cold front that will be moving
through the Central Plains. The lighter wind should result in
slightly cooler overnight lows (1 or 2 degrees), but it will
hardly be noticeable.



/06Z TAFs/

No changes from the 00Z TAF package with only scattered high
clouds overnight and a breezy south/southeast wind. Stratus
is still expected to develop across Central Texas overnight, with
temporary MVFR ceilings at Waco for a few hours around sunrise
Saturday. Otherwise, VFR is expected across the entire region
from mid morning Saturday through the evening. A south wind will
prevail between 12 and 18 knots along with a few higher gusts.



.DISCUSSION... /Issued 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019/
We have a couple more hot days to get through over the weekend
before a pattern shift delivers a cold front, thunderstorm
chances, and relatively pleasant temperatures early next week.

An elongated Bermuda high extends across much of the southeastern
US, keeping much of the Southern Plains subsident and seasonably
hot. This trend will continue over the weekend, with hot
conditions and little/no chance for rainfall within the forecast
area. An easterly wave feature does exist on the southern fringes
of the ridge axis that will drift towards the area late Saturday.
However, any convective potential is expected to remain in East
Texas or farther southeast along the Gulf coast. While high
temperatures will be in the mid and upper 90s, heat index values
will largely be below 105 due to dewpoints mixing into the 60s
each afternoon. Therefore, no formal heat headlines are planned
at this time. In addition, a persistent southerly breeze of 10-20
mph should prevent the heat from feeling terribly oppressive.

Some large-scale changes will begin to take shape late Sunday as
the upper ridge translates westward while becoming strongly
amplified. Meridional flow will essentially extend from northern
Canada all the way southward into the Central Plains along the
eastern periphery of the ridge. This fetch of northerly flow will
send a summertime cold front southward, which should encroach on
our forecast area sometime on Monday. Timing of this feature
remains a bit uncertain as its speed will likely be dependent on
the amount of convection associated with it, as consolidating
outflows could force the effective frontal zone to accelerate

Convective chances will increase along the front as it enters
North Texas on Monday while encountering moderate instability
amidst modest deep-layer shear. Some multicellular clusters or
line segments may exist along the front while additional elevated
convection remains possible following its initial passage. At
least some low-end potential for a strong/severe storm will exist
(mostly for wind), simply given the instability present coupled
with deep inverted-V profiles within the boundary layer. This risk
is expected to be rather isolated at this time with storms
likely struggling to become organized. Storms will continue
southward with the front headed into Tuesday, where some upglide
above the frontal surface may continued support showers or storms
behind the initial boundary.

Behind the cold front, noticeably cooler and drier air will slowly
filter in through the midweek time period. With the previously
mentioned northerly fetch, the source region of this airmass will
essentially have been Canada. However, it will have undergone
substantial modification prior to reaching this far south. Still,
we should see temperatures as much as 5-10 degrees below normal
(aided by some lingering cloud cover), along with much lower
(possibly upper 50s) dewpoints. With the drier air in place,
lows should be capable of falling into the 60s for a couple of
mornings. By late July standards, next week is shaping up to
rather pleasant as we continue to keep the triple-digit heat at



Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  97  78  98  78 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                77  97  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               76  93  75  93  75 /   0   0   0   5  10
Denton              77  97  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            78  96  76  97  77 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              80  98  79  98  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             77  95  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   5   5
Corsicana           77  94  75  94  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
Temple              75  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       75  97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   5




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