Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 210545

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1145 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Main forecast issue will be chance of precipitation from Thursday
night into Saturday. Satellite continuing to show an amplified
pattern from the Pacific into eastern North America. Mid low/system
that brought severe weather to the area yesterday is spinning near
southwest South Dakota.

Tonight...Shortwave rotating around upper low and instability will
bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to the northeast fringe of
our area through early this evening. Otherwise clearing clouds with
surface ridge and lighter winds move into the region.

Thursday/Thursday night...Dry conditions, north winds and slightly
warmer temperatures are expected. Blend temperatures look reasonable
and kept.

During the night is where things start to get interesting. Upper jet
axis/lift will be near the western and southwest portion of the area
after midnight. Also a shortwave trough will be moving up the west
side of the 700 mb ridge at the same with a nice baroclinic
zone/warm air advection pattern in advance of it. There is a decent
amount of elevated Cape with negative Theta-e lapse rates. This
should allow a good response to the lift. Models, WPC, and Sref
probabilities support having measurable and will keep the low pops
for now. Some potential here if the instability is fully realized
that not only coverage will be greater but there will be a risk of
severe storms.

Friday/Friday night...Above mention instability and lift looks to
linger into the morning hours, keeping any thunderstorms going. From
mid afternoon into the overnight hours, a rather strong shortwave
trough in west to northwest flow aloft will be moving through. At
low levels will be modest southeast winds so will definitely have
directional shear. Cape looks to be at least a 1000 and maybe up to
2000 with negative theta-e lapse rates. Models are breaking out a
large cluster of precipitation/thunderstorms and that looks good. If
this pans out, area will definitely have a chance for severe
weather. Also 1 to 1.5 precipitable water values will be in place
which is above normal for this time of year. So locally heavy
rainfall will be another threat.

Saturday...Above mentioned batch of thunderstorms looks to lingering
into the morning. Then another shortwave trough will move through in
weaker northwest flow aloft. This looks to cause some redevelopment
of thunderstorms. The lift and thunderstorms look to exit the
area late in the afternoon or very early in the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

In the extended period the models are showing an upper level low
moving into the Central High Plains from the northwest.  This upper
level low looks to be anchored over the local area by Monday then
kicked out of the area Tuesday. This system will produce rainshowers
and thunderstorms Sunday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night and Wednesday, the models are showing an upper level
ridge building over the High Plains. This will influence the region
with dry conditions and above normal highs.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at the Goodland and McCook terminals. Winds
will fluctuate back and forth from the northwest to the northeast
at around 10-15 mph.




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