Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250430
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1030 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Tonight-Saturday night...an upper level high pressure center
currently located over southwest California will remain nearly
stationary through Saturday before getting shunted to the west along
the west coast due to the arrival of a long wave upper trough
Saturday night and Sunday.

Low temperatures tonight are expected to fall into the upper 40s to
mid 50s. High temperatures Friday are expected to range from the
upper 80s to low 90s along the NE/KS border to the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees from Hill City to Tribune and points south. Lows
Friday night in the low to upper 50s. High temperatures Saturday
look to reach the low to upper 90s. Record/near record high
temperatures are expected, see CLIMATE section below.

Sunday...much cooler temperatures return behind Saturday nights cold
front. 850mb temperatures drop about 22F to 27F supporting a host of
better performing bias corrected grids in yielding high temperatures
in the upper 60s to mid 70s. It will be breezy to windy with winds
from the north.

The 12Z NAM and to a slightly lesser extent the 12Z GFS are
suggesting an organized threat for blowing dust generally in the mid
to late afternoon hours along and south of Interstate 70. Will
refrain from mentioning blowing dust in the forecast at this time
given its 3 days out but if the guidance continues to suggest the
threat tomorrow I`ll add some blowing dust to the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2020

The main focus for the extended period will be multiple disturbances
moving through the area bringing cooler temperatures.

Sunday night northwesterly flow present over the the Tri-State area
with a strong low pressure system over the Great Lakes will provide
CAA into the area. An upper level wave will be moving to the SE
across southern Nebraska/ northern Kansas which may allow an
isolated shower or storm to develop across the eastern portion of
the CWA; my confidence in this occurring is low as the surface
moisture levels remain low. I am however leaving low end
shower/storm pops in to account for the ECMWF beginning to show a
hint of some rain developing during the evening. The main area of
NW flow will move off to the east of the area, leaving the CWA
under a short lived ridging scenario on Monday which will have
slightly warmer temperatures. Another cold front moves through in
during the day on Tuesday bringing an area of stronger winds,
however my thinking is that this front will yet pass through
without any measurable precipitation. Wednesday and Thursday, CAA
continues to move into the area behind the front with an area of
possibly windy conditions as pressure gradients tighten over the
Tri-State area. No measurable precipitation is anticipated both
days.

Temperatures for the extended period will be on the cooler side
behind the front with highs in the 70`s on Monday and Tuesday. Highs
on Wednesday and Thursday are currently forecasted to be even cooler
than that with the passage of the Tuesday cold front; highs those
days will be in the 60`s. Lows on Monday morning could get down into
the upper 30`s across eastern Colorado, while other areas of the CWA
remain in the 40`s. More widespread areas of lows in the 30`s are
possible both Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. Wednesday and
Thursday mornings may need to be watched for a potential frost as
there is a low chance for cloud cover at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Excellent aviation weather. VFR conditions will rule through the
TAF period. Light/variable or light southerly winds will prevail
through sunrise Friday morning. Winds will shift to the NW-NNW and
increase to 10-17 knots a few hours after sunrise (~15Z) --
veering to the N-NE and weakening to 5-10 knots during the
afternoon (18-21Z), further veering to the SE-SSE by the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Record and near record high temperatures are expected for the
following locations Friday and Saturday:

----------------------------------
Friday September 25
----------------------------------
Burlington..........95 set in 1998
Colby...............96 set in 1966
Tribune.............96 set in 2005

----------------------------------
Saturday September 26
----------------------------------
Goodland............90 set in 2008 and previous years
McCook..............96 set in 1919
Burlington..........91 set in 2008
Hill City...........96 set in 2013
Tribune.............99 set in 1998
Yuma................91 set in 1999

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TT
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...99


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