Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
158 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 125 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A High Wind Warning has been issued for Cheyenne and Kit Carson
counties of Colorado. Surface observations from both Limon and
LaJunta showing prefrontal wind gusts to 50kts or so with blowing
dust on webcams. Am concerned that these winds and blowing dust
will travel east across our counties south of the interstate over
the next few hours. Additional high wind warnings may be needed.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Tonight...shower and thunderstorm chances decrease quickly this
evening as upper level wave moves east of the area. Behind the wave
mid and high level clouds increase across the area. Will be watching
for possibility of low clouds developing across much of the area as
boundary layer saturates. Low temperatures range from the low to mid
30s in far eastern Colorado to the low 40s out by Hill City.

Saturday...will see some high clouds move in from the west/southwest
during the day continuing through midnight before decreasing from
west to east toward sunrise Sunday morning. Will also have to deal
with some stratus clouds and possibly some fog. Northwest winds in
the morning become east to southeast during the afternoon with the
higher speeds along and west of the CO/KS border where gusts to 30
mph possible. Should see high temperatures range from the mid 50s to
low 60s east to the mid/upper 60s far west and south. Low
temperatures in the mid 30s.

Sunday...forecast area caught in between frontal systems during the
day which will make for a challenging temperature forecast. Right
now no changes will be made and will continue to advertise highs
ranging from the low to mid 50s east to the mid/upper 60s far west
and south. Could have some drizzle or light rain showers across the
far east in the morning. Low confidence forecast in Sunday night
precipitation chances with current low temperature forecast ranging
from the low/mid 30s west to low 40s far east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Main forecast concern will be active weather the beginning of next
week. Satellite is showing an amplified pattern from the Pacific
into the western Atlantic. Large and cold closed upper low currently
spinning off the Pacific northwest and southwest Canada.

Above mentioned low will move into the western portion of the
country beginning late this weekend. As it does will deamplify and
weakens. Then it will start reorganizing and amplifying once again
Monday and Tuesday. When it does this it will split with the
stronger and more closed off portion over the southwest portion of
the country. It is because of this complex behavior and split flow
that the models are having a hard time in agreeing with the details
despite showing the same general scenario.

The most active period looks to be Monday and Monday night. A
surface boundary will be draped over or near the forecast area
during the day before moving east. At the same a rather strong mid
level shortwave will move in from the west as strong left front
quadrant will affect the area. Also there is a decent amount of
Mucape. Lift and instability support the forecast builder pops and
have no problem with them. As a result of the above have put in
thunderstorms. Will have to watch this period for some potential

Am not optimistic about much precipitation after the above lift
moves out on Tuesday. Trend for the upper low and northern stream
energy is for them to be further south. Am thinking that the main
moisture and lift is going to be shoved further south after Tuesday.
Due to some northern stream lift moving through and a lack of time
due to ongoing weather, will leave the low pops in there for now.
Also left the temperatures alone through the period as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1000 AM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. However, could
see mvfr cigs a few hours either side of 11z. Southwest winds
gusting 25kts at taf issuance expected to increase and slowly veer
to the west then northwest through 23z with gusts to 35kts
possible. Isolated thunderstorms possible around the terminal in
the 20z-00z timeframe, right now confidence not high enough to
include in the forecast for the terminal. For tonight northwest
winds 10-12kts expected. Could see some stratus a few hours either
side of 11z. Around 17z winds veer to the northeast under 10kts.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through 11z. Winds begin the period
from the southeast near 12kts then back to the northeast then
north after 22z with gusts to 25kts possible. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms possible in the 21z-02z timeframe with
winds backing to the north around 10kts. Stratus expected with
mvfr cigs in the 09z-16z timeframe and have added to the forecast.


KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for

CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ091-092.



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