Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
554 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 318 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

The primary forecast concerns are low temperatures overnight
tonight along with the dry conditions expected Thursday

The initial short wave trough lifts out of the main upper trough
over the high plains today with the secondary short wave rotating
through the base of the trough over the southern plains on
Thursday. This will produce a shift in the overall pattern from a
northwest flow regime with cooler temperatures in place across
the central high plains to a more zonal westerly flow pattern that
will keep cooler temperatures further to the north.

Lingering light rain showers associated with the initial short
wave trough rotating through the main upper trough will move out
of the eastern sections of the forecast area first thing this
morning with patchy fog possible where showers have contributed to
low level moisture overnight. any fog that develops should clear
by mid morning as skies clear and the low level inversion begins
to break down.

Cool temperatures in the 60s today to will begin to warm through
Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the upper 70s by Thursday.
The coldest overnight lows of the season so far are expected
tonight. The Nebraska and Kansas border region could see lows
dipping into the upper 30s while lower 40s are expected elsewhere.
While frost is possible further north across southwest Nebraska
and the Nebraska panhandle, and especially in the Platte River
Valley, the temperatures are not expected to get low enough for
a frost to occur in the Goodland forecast area early Wednesday

RH values of less than 20 percent are expected across eastern
Colorado on Thursday and bear watching, but with generally light
winds as weak return surface flow transitions to a weak southerly
flow ahead of a deepening surface low over southeastern Colorado
late Thursday, no fire weather highlights are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

A broad upper trough spans across the northern and central portion
of the CONUS on Friday, placing the High Plains under west to
northwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front (anticipated to
move through Thursday) stalls south of the region as a secondary
cold front approaches the area. These boundaries generate chances
for light rain showers on Friday and Saturday, mainly for the
eastern portion of the forecast area. Cooler weather is anticipated
as well.

By Sunday, the upper trough has pushed east and nearly zonal flow
develops. Throughout the day, flow shifts to the southwest with high
pressure expanding over the southeastern CONUS. Drier and warmer
conditions are currently expected as warmer air returns northward.
This pattern continues into Monday.

The coolest temperatures of the extended period occur on Friday,
with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. A warming trend follows,
and highs climb into the low 60s to low 70s on Saturday and mid
70s to low 80s on Sunday and Monday. Low temperatures gradually
warm as well, from the low/mid 40s Friday night to the 50s on
Sunday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Conditions will start out MVFR at MCK and GLD due to lower
ceilings. Gusty north winds will also be present. Conditions will
transition to VFR as lower clouds dissipate between 14Z-16Z. Wind
speeds will also increase during this time with gusts as high as
30 kts. Sky cover will continue to decrease through the afternoon
and wind speeds will decrease and lose their gustiness by 23Z.
After 06Z, skies will be mostly clear with light winds.




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