Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 290546

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
146 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

[Through 06Z Thursday]

Scattered showers over the Atlantic will occasionally push
onshore near SSI through the rest of the morning bringing tempo MVFR
cig/vsby. VFR conditions expected to prevail at the other coastal
terminals (JAX, CRG, & SGJ) through the morning while patchy fog
of the MVFR variety may develop at GNV and VQQ between 9-12z.
Initial round of scattered showers and storms will develop near
the coast as the sea breeze pushes inland during the late
morning/early afternoon. Convective activity will advance inland
through the afternoon and evening before shifting west of the area
around 01z or 02z. Will hold off on any direct TSRA mentions
given the expected nature of the convection this afternoon.
Outside of shower/storm influences, VFR conditions with cumulus
around 3-4 kft. East coast sea breeze will prevail today with
easterly winds around 8-12 kts.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will continue to
build inland from the coast today, forming along the Atlantic sea
breeze, with the primary threat associated with storms this
afternoon being a potential for localized flooding in areas with
long duration heavy rains. Ridging from out of the east will
continue to hold the frontal boundary in a stationary position off
to the north, with a weak steering flow persisting for the
forecast area. Convection will continue on into the evening hours
for areas near and west of the I-75 corridor and for portions of
southeast Georgia before dissipating overnight. High temperatures
for today will be in the lower to mid 90s for inland areas and in
the upper 80s for locations closer to the coastline. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the lower 70s for inland areas and in the
mid to upper 70s for areas near the shoreline.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Frontal boundary to the north of the region will remain in place
through midweek with a weak flow pattern in place over the
forecast area. Convection is expected to develop in association
with the sea breeze, out flow convergences, and boundary
collisions. Storms will continue to be slow moving during this
period and will bring the risk for localized flooding over areas
hit with heavy rainfall, with PWAT values potentially reaching
values as high as 2.3 inches. An inverted trough will move in
towards the region on Thursday, with a very small area of drier
air preceding its arrival inland. High temperatures reaching into
the 90s will carry over into midweek with slightly lower max temps
occurring over in southeast Georgia due to increased rainfall and
cloud cover. Overnight low temperatures will continue to be in the
lower 70s through Thursday.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Daily bouts of scattered to numerous showers and storms will carry
over into the weekend as the inverted trough pushes inland on
Friday and settles itself further northward over the weekend with
PWAT values consistently measuring at 2 inches or higher through
the period. Pattern of slower moving storms and showers forming
along sea breeze boundaries and areas of collision will carry over
into this period with potential threats for localized flooding due
to extended periods of heavy rainfall being possible. Temperatures
through the end of the week will be close to the seasonal average
with high temps being slightly cooler in areas with heavier
diurnal rainfall.


High pressure across the central Atlantic will extend a ridge
axis north of the local area as weak inverted troughs rotate
around the ridge up the Florida Atlantic coast this week.
Prevailing onshore flow will bring late night and morning coastal
shower and thunderstorms inland each day. High pressure will
develop to northeast and extend a ridge axis over the waters this
weekend leading to light east to southeasterly winds.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for all beaches today and Wednesday.



AMG  88  71  89  71  88 /  60  30  60  20  70
SSI  86  77  87  77  86 /  50  20  60  40  70
JAX  90  76  89  76  88 /  30  10  60  30  70
SGJ  88  76  88  76  87 /  20  20  60  40  70
GNV  92  71  92  71  89 /  60  40  70  30  80
OCF  92  73  92  73  89 /  30  30  70  30  80


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