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000
FXUS62 KJAX 261802
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
202 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

Periods of MVFR ceilings between 1,500-3,000 feet will be
possible at the terminals through 00Z, except VFR ceilings are
expected through the afternoon and evening at GNV. MVFR ceilings
will then overspread the terminals after 00Z, with isolated
light showers possible at the Duval County terminals and SGJ after
06Z. IFR conditions will be possible after 06Z at VQQ and GNV.
Ceilings should lift to MVFR at these terminals before 14Z
Tuesday. Sustained northeast to east northeasterly surface winds
near 15 knots are expected through around 22Z at the coastal
terminals, with speeds at the inland terminals sustained at 10-15
knots. Surface speeds should remain sustained around 5 knots
through the overnight hours at most of the regional terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1136 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Late morning surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1032
millibars) centered over the Canadian Maritime Region and wedging
down the U.S. eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Zeta was
centered over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and was being to
accelerate northwestward towards Mexico`s Yucatan Peninsula.
Aloft...deep-layered ridging stretches across the Gulf of Mexico
and the FL peninsula through the Bahamas. Fog and low stratus
ceilings that blanketed our area through the mid-morning hours
has lifted over all but inland southeast GA and the Suwannee
Valley. A tight pressure gradient was creating breezy northeast
winds at coastal locations, with some lower stratocumulus clouds
advecting onshore across coastal southeast GA. Temperatures at 15Z
were rising into the lower 80s where the stratus has lifted, with
lower 70s prevailing over the Suwannee Valley and inland
southeast GA where thick stratus has yet to dissipate. Dewpoints
were generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

We expect that cover of stratocumulus will increase from south to
north late this afternoon and evening as isentropic lift begins
to strengthen and breezy onshore winds prevail. A few coastal
showers may begin to impact the I-95 corridor in northeast FL
towards sunrise on Tuesday, with dry conditions otherwise
prevailing. Fog and low stratus ceilings are also expected to
expand in coverage overnight as low level moisture slowly
increases. Highs today will range from near 80 along the southeast
GA coast to the upper 80s for inland portions of north central FL.
Heat index values will soar into the mid 90s for inland north
central FL this afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the mid
60s near the Altamaha River to the low and mid 70s for coastal
northeast FL.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

A mid/upper ridge over the region continues to move eastward
developing deep southerly flow. This setup will lift tropical
moisture into the area increasing rain chances for midweek. The
bulk of the moisture will be displaced to the northwest of the
area on Wednesday focusing the best chances for rain over inland
southeast Georgia and Suwannee Valley. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm
Zeta moves north-northwestward from the northeast Yucatan
Peninsula into the southern Gulf along the western periphery of
the ridge. On Wednesday, a cut off low will move eastward through
the Southern Plains and sweep up Zeta, merging it into our next
cold front moving through the Deep South. Temperatures will be
above climo with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s to low
70s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]...

Upper ridge over the region gets squashed as a mid/upper cut off
low moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, at the
surface, Zeta passes to our north from the Southeast into the Mid-
Atlantic states dragging a cold front through the Deep South.
Ahead of the front, scattered showers and isolated storms possible
with the lingering tropical moisture and lift. The cold front
pushes in from the northwest on Friday. A cool, dry airmass
settles in over the region for the weekend lowering daytime high
temperatures into the 70s and overnight lows back in the mid 50s-
low 60s across inland portions of the area. Isolated coastal
showers may be possible with onshore flow developing this weekend.


.MARINE...

Strong high pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard will
gradually weaken through midweek. Breezy onshore winds and
will prevail over our local waters through Tuesday, with seas in
the 3-5 foot range. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Zeta is expected to
strengthen into a hurricane as it moves northwestward from the
Caribbean Sea and into the south central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday
as high pressure becomes centered near Bermuda. Zeta will impact
the northern Gulf coast on Wednesday night, resulting in winds
shifting to southerly and increasing to around 15 knots and seas
building back to the 3-5 foot range. Remnant low pressure from
Zeta will accelerate through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys on Thursday and Thursday night, with a strong cold front
expected to cross our local waters on Friday. Winds will shift to
southwesterly on Thursday night and westerly by Friday morning,
followed by northwesterly winds increasing to near 15 knots by
Friday afternoon.

Rip Currents: Onshore winds and a lingering long period ocean
swell from departing Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon will keep a
high risk at the northeast FL beaches this afternoon. A moderate
risk will prevail at the southeast GA beaches. Onshore winds will
keep a moderate risk in place at all area beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  65  83  69  85  71 /   0  10   0  20  10
SSI  69  79  72  82  73 /   0  20   0  20  10
JAX  71  83  72  85  72 /  10  30  10  20  10
SGJ  73  84  74  85  73 /   0  30  10  20   0
GNV  70  87  71  87  71 /   0  40  10  30  10
OCF  72  89  72  89  72 /   0  40  10  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&