Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 221314
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
914 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100 TO 105 THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...Radar has been showing increasing coverage of showers
along I-10 corridor W of forecast area...supported by unstable 12z
KTAE sounding. HRRR guidance not picking up on this very well.
Expect this activity along weak boundary will work eastward during
the day...and have adjusted hourly POP/weather grids to reflect
this trend...with slightly greater coverage along I-10 corridor
slightly lesser coverage of scattered/widely scattered t-storms
N and S...with activity reaching eastern counties mid afternoon
and decreasing in coverage while moving offshore toward evening
Strong gusty winds possible with stronger storms that develop.

12z soundings showing slightly cooler temps a few thousand feet
above the ground...may support current high temps a few degrees
above hot values from yesterday...generally mid 90s today...with
afternoon heat index values 100-105.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected Today except locally lower
around scattered afternoon TSRA. Have just VCTS in TAFs for now
due to expected coverage...best chances appear to be around
KJAX/KVQQ/KCRG and may consider TEMPO group for 18z TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...Synoptic pattern remains the same with surface high pressure
to the south and low pressure to the north, resulting in westerly
to southerly flow. With the offshore flow, surf heights remain
low along with the risk of rip currents.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  75  95  74 /  20  10  20  10
SSI  92  78  92  77 /  30  10  30  10
JAX  94  76  96  74 /  40  10  30  20
SGJ  93  77  93  75 /  30  10  30  10
GNV  93  75  94  73 /  40  10  20   0
OCF  92  76  92  73 /  30  20  30   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Wolf/Elsenheimer



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