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776
FXUS62 KJAX 251953
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
353 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tue...

Surface high pressure wedge across GA retreats northward through
Mon as Invest 98L tracks farther NE offshore of the SE Atlantic
seaboard. The backdoor front meandering near the FL/GA state line
today will begin to lift northward late tonight into early Mon,
providing a focus for showers and isolated tstorms to converge
upon and edge inland across SE GA through Monday afternoon. A few
coastal showers possible for NE FL early Mon, but better chance of
rain will focus inland during the afternoon and early evening
hours where some drier mid level air will create more surface
instability through the day and trigger sea breezes to propagate
slowly inland. Sea breeze/outflow mergers will focus inland
roughly between I-75 and Highway 301 corridors. High moisture
content (PWAT > 2 inches) and slow storm motion < 10 kts will
continue over the local area with the primary convective concern
locally heavy rainfall. As SW steering flow increases Mon
afternoon/evening, inland convection will drift back toward the
Atlantic coast into the evening while gradually decreasing in
coverage and intensity.

A weak, meandering convergent axis may bring some early morning
coastal shower Tuesday, but mostly dry conditions are expected
until early afternoon along the sea breeze fronts. A more dominant
west coast sea breeze regime is expected across NE FL, while the
higher chance Tue will focus across SE GA ahead of a approaching
surface front settling southward across GA where there will be a
little better chance of a strong storm in the afternoon/evening.

Temperatures trend near to below climo for highs due to cloud
cover and above normal minimums with muggy overnight conditions.

.LONG TERM...Wed-Sun...

Synopsis...Generally cloudy with elevated rain chances Wed-Fri
especially for NE FL and the eastern tier of SE GA from Jesup to
Waycross to Homerville. Drier into the weekend, especially for the
coast, but still a chance of mainly inland afternoon & evening
showers/tstorms. Temperatures will trend near to below normal for
highs (80s) and near to below normal for lows (70s).

Wed through Fri...Widespread elevated rain chances Wed afternoon
as a surface cold front across GA shifts across at least north FL
as a mid level 500 mb trough deepens down the Atlantic seaboard.
Models diverge how far south the surface front presses across the
FL peninsula late Wed into Thu as a broad surface low develops
along the frontal boundary. 12Z ECMWF was farther south with the
low, and brings a cooler and drier NNE flow over the local area
with mainly coastal showers moving inland through the day across
NE FL. The GFS20 was farther north with the surface low across the
local area, and advertised an unsettled, wet Thu for most zones
as the surface low retrogrades over the eastern GOMEX. Band of
deep moisture (appreciable water over 2") remains draped across
the local area into Fri as the broad Gulf low shifts farther west
as the Bermuda ridge strengthens over the Florida peninsula. Above
normal rain chances will continue into Fri, with a focus for
locally heavy rainfall across our inland zones, west of Highway
301.

Sat & Sun...Pattern change to drier conditions with less deeper
layer moisture and forcing as Bermuda ridge strengthens over FL.
Southerly steering flow develops with the deeper moisture shifting
west of the area. Expect mainly sea breeze and diurnally driven
convection both days, with a focus for boundary mergers inland
between I-75 and Highway 301 each afternoon/early evening. Rain
chances tapper downward further Sunday with below normal PWAT
across the area (1.5").

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered/broken cigs 1.5-3kft will continue through the afternoon
hours. Northeast winds 10-15 knots with gusts around 20 knots will
prevail through the afternoon hours. Showers and possibly a
thunderstorm will move inland towards KGNV through the rest of the
afternoon and into the early evening. Winds will diminish to less
than 10 knots overnight, and remain around 10 knots during the day
on Monday. Showers are forecast to once again move down the coast
in the morning hours,impacting KSSI first and then the Duval
County TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface trough lingering across the local waters will lift
north Monday. Elevated winds of 15-20 knots continued this
afternoon over waters north of St. Augustine, thus continued with
SCEC headline for these outer waters through tonight, and then the
near shore waters into this evening as the pressure gradient will
begin to gradually relax into Monday. Another front will settle
across south Georgia Tuesday and linger through Wednesday. A broad
low is expected to form along this meandering front late in the
week, then gradually shift westward this weekend as high pressure
builds north of the local area.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  87  73  90 /  10  50  50  60
SSI  76  85  77  88 /  30  30  30  40
JAX  75  87  75  91 /  20  60  40  50
SGJ  77  88  74  90 /  20  30  30  40
GNV  75  91  74  90 /  20  70  50  50
OCF  75  91  74  90 /  20  70  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Enyedi/Kennedy