National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 212031
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
431 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

.NEAR TERM /Through Friday night/...

The combination of a developing storm system in the
mid Atlantic and high pressure building in across
the lower Miss Valley will provide a dry west to
northwest flow across the area. The gradient will
relax some tonight and Friday as the low continues
to move northeast resulting in less winds than today.
Afternoon temps will be near seasonal norms but
nighttime lows will be in the lower/mid 40s inland
and upper 40s to near 50 coast which is below normal
for this time of year.

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Sunday night/...

Deep layer ridging will be across the area Saturday
with the low level high just north of the area.
This will provide a light north to northeast flow
across the area and a continuation of dry conditions
with near seasonal afternoon temps and cooler than
normal nighttime lows. The deep layer ridge will move
east of the area Sunday as the next upper trough and
cold front approaches. This results in a warming
trend Sunday as the low level flow becomes southeast.
This may bring in a few coastal clouds in the afternoon
but otherwise continued dry.

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...

An approaching upper trough and cold front will approach
the area early next week bringing a chance of showers
to the area Monday night into Tuesday. A surge of
northeast winds behind the front may bring in coastal
clouds with a few showers Wednesday but otherwise
cooler and drier.

&&

.AVIATION...Gusty west winds will diminish this eve.
Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...The combination of deepening low pressure to the
north and high pressure building in from the west will provide
SCA conditions to the offshore waters into Friday morning with
SCEC near shore. The gradient decreases some Friday...as the low
lifts north. High pressure builds into the region over the weekend
with no headlines expected. A cold front will cross the waters
Tuesday bringing possible SCEC to the offshore Monday night.

Rip Currents: Low risk anticipated Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy west winds around 15 mph with
gusts to 20 mph will combine with minimum RH values of
25 to 30 percent and high ERC values to produce a high
fire danger today. Conditions appear to just meet Red Flag
Warning criteria for much of northeast FL and elevated
fire danger for southeast GA. Breezy conditions and high
mixing heights will result in high dispersions. Critically
low RH values are expected again on Friday with sustained
winds near 10 mph with elevated to high dispersions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  42  72  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  48  68  50  67 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  44  75  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  49  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  43  75  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  44  76  43  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for Alachua-Baker-
     Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-Columbia-
     Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-Marion-Putnam-
     Suwannee-Union.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

$$

PP/PW/KB
National Weather Service National Headquarters
