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000
FXUS62 KJAX 291823
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
123 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Current obs shows pockets of temperatures below 32F, with the
expectation for more locations to begin trend downward to the
upper 20s to lower 30s along inland locations with coastal lows in
the mid to upper 30s. The current Freeze Warning and Frost
Advisory will continue through the early morning hours today. With
a dry air mass overheard, sunshine and a light N/NW breeze will
be present areawide today. Daytime temperatures in the 50s for
most locations, while northern central Florida will see
temperatures get to the lower 60s. By the evening, temperatures
will again dip as cloud cover will be nearly nonexistent but for a
layer of cirrus clouds. This will setup another night of
widespread frost/light freezing temperatures for inland locations.
The Freeze Watch for Wednesday night into Thursday morning has
been upgraded to a A Freeze Warning, with a new Frost Advisory
along the edges of the warned areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

High pressure will shift offshore on Thursday, bring us more of a
southeasterly flow throughout the day. This will gradually
increase our surface moisture as well as rebounding our high temps
closer to average. Expect to have more mid and high clouds present
Thursday, though we will remain dry as our next weather maker
takes shape to our west. With above said, also expect warmer
overnight lows Thursday Night with the shift in flow and warm air
advection, and therefore any frost or freeze unlikely.

Friday and Friday night, winds will veer to a south-southeast flow
with mean winds to from 700 to 400 mb becoming west-southwesterly
tapping into Gulf of Mexico moisture.  Friday will be a priming day
ahead of the weekend with precipitable water values increasing between
1.5 to 1.75 inches by sundown with PWATS increasing between 1.75 to 2
inches by daybreak Saturday morning. A couple weak vorticity
lobes will approach region late Friday with isolated to widely
scattered showers with some potential for embedded afternoon
thunder. Areal coverage of showers will be more of the scattered
category Friday night with isolated thunderstorm potential. Highs
Friday will be mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with lows Friday
night more balmy for this time of year residing in the lower to
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Chances for showers and perhaps some isolated thunder increase
into the weekend, as pieces of energy aloft from both
the Polar and Subtropical Jets stream from southwest to northeast
and impact our area. Excellent moisture transport from the GOM
Gulf expect high rain chances through much of the weekend and
into early next week with several upper impulses moving southwest
to the northeast along a nearly stationary boundary near the
FL/GA border. In addition some embedded thunder may occur through
the weekend and Monday. However, SE GA is anticipated to become
drier by Monday with NE FL remaining in the deeper moisture.
An upper trough swings across the eastern US and pushes the stalled
boundary through the area Monday night or Tuesday. ECMWF and GFS
timing have come more in line with the general consensus is for an
unsettled pattern for most of this period before drying out
behind t the front sometime late Monday or Tuesday. Temps trend
above average for the weekend with high temps about 5 to 7 degrees
above normal with lows about 10 to 12 degrees above normal. After
the frontal passage late Monday or early Tuesday, Tuesday will be
dry with near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions with light and variable winds prevail through the
period as high pressure builds overhead. Areas of frost are
expected near GNV, JAX and VQQ between 06-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

High pressure centered over Texas will gradually build eastward
today and Wednesday, becoming centered directly over our local
waters on Wednesday night. Breezy northwesterly winds will prevail
locally through this afternoon before shifting to northerly tonight,
with speeds then diminishing by midweek. High pressure will then
shift offshore of the Carolina coast on Thursday, with winds
briefly becoming onshore before shifting to southerly on Friday as
low pressure shifts northeastward from Texas and across the
Ozarks before weakening over the Tennessee Valley. Showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms are expected from Friday through the
weekend as a warm front lifts northward from the Florida
peninsula. This storm system`s cold front will then move across
our local waters early next week.

Rip Currents: A low risk is expected to continue into Thursday. A
lower-end moderate risk may develop at the northeast FL beaches
by Thursday afternoon as a southeasterly ocean swell arrives.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 847 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

Record low temperatures at our designated climate sites on
Wednesday and Thursday mornings:

                    Nov 29      Nov 30
                  ----------------------
Jacksonville       30 (1959)   26 (1959)
Gainesville        28 (1959)   22 (1959)
Alma, GA           22 (1938)   22 (1955)
Craig Airport      34 (1988)   32 (1979)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  30  63  49  74 /   0   0  10  40
SSI  40  66  56  75 /   0   0   0  20
JAX  34  66  53  78 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  42  69  58  78 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  34  69  54  79 /   0   0   0  20
OCF  36  70  55  80 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Thursday for FLZ020-021-023-
     024-030-031-035-122-136-222-225-232-236-425.

     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Thursday for FLZ124-125-132-
     137-140-237-240-325-340.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Thursday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Thursday for GAZ154-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$