Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 190531
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
931 PM PST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Winter storm system will impact the state through
Monday bringing strong winds this afternoon to parts of central
Nevada and snow to most of the state through Monday. Tuesday will
be dry and the coldest day of the week before the next weather
disturbance affects the region Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...Dropped the Wind Advisories for White Pine and eastern
Elko Counties. Kept the Wind Advisory for northwest Nye County as
is but extended northeast Nye County advisory through 4 am PST.
Now all of northern Nye County, where drainage winds are expected
to be coupled with post-frontal northwest flow, has a 4 am PST
Wind Advisory expiration.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 808 PM /

SYNOPSIS...Winter storm system will impact the state through
Monday bringing strong winds this afternoon to parts of central
Nevada and snow to most of the state through Monday. Tuesday will
be dry and the coldest day of the week before the next weather
disturbance affects the region Wednesday and Thursday.

UPDATE...Let the Blowing Dust Advisory expire for White Pine
County. Satellite imagery still shows some dust aloft of White
Pine County however dust is dissipating and winds are diminishing.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 714 PM /

SYNOPSIS...Winter storm system will impact the state through
Monday bringing strong winds this afternoon to parts of central
Nevada and snow to most of the state through Monday. Tuesday will
be dry and the coldest day of the week before the next weather
disturbance affects the region Wednesday and Thursday.

UPDATE...Let the Blowing Dust Advisories expire for all except
White Pine County. Satellite imagery shows large area of dust
approaching KELY at this time. Extended Blowing Dust Advisory for
one more hour for White Pine County.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 447 PM /

SYNOPSIS...Winter storm system will impact the state through
Monday bringing strong winds this afternoon to parts of central
Nevada and snow to most of the state through Monday. Tuesday will
be dry and the coldest day of the week before the next weather
disturbance affects the region Wednesday and Thursday.

UPDATE...Forecast package was updated to issue a blowing dust
advisory. Localized visibility to less than one mile is likely in
the advised area. This is set to expire around 7pm, since precip
will be moving in from the north.

A little item of interest...we are currently observing mud snow
at the Elko office. The dust and alkali dust is acting as cloud
condensation nuclei. Not something you see everyday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 340 PM /

SYNOPSIS...Winter storm system will impact the state through
Monday bringing strong winds this afternoon to parts of central
Nevada and snow to most of the state through Monday. Tuesday will
be dry and the coldest day of the week before the next weather
disturbance affects the region Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday.

Potent storm system continues to move through northern Nevada.
A very dynamic cold front will move the state tonight bringing
more convective snow showers through northern and central NV.
Instability is increasing with CAA ramping up. Not out of the
question to see a few lightning strikes with the heavier
convective snow showers as some TSSN has been observed in Twin
Falls Idaho.

Snow: Temperatures have remained near freezing through the early
afternoon hours with the coldest part of the storm yet to move
through late this afternoon and evening. This has limited snow
accumulations as ground temperatures remain fairly warm from
yesterday. Temperatures range from lower 60s in Tonopah with
negative dewpoints to a near saturated airmass in the upper 20s
across the NV/ID border. Snow will begin to accumulate fairly
quickly as the sun angle decreases and more snow moves into the
area along with the cold front. Still looking at 1 to 3 inches in
the valleys with 5 to 7 additional inches in the mountains of
central and northeastern NV. Latest model runs are indicating an
enhanced precip event across far eastern NV including the
Wendover and GBNP areas overnight as surface low/trough develops
along UT/NV border and slides southward. Snow will diminish
overnight overall with another round Monday before subsiding again
Monday night.

Winds: Enhanced baroclinicity and mid-level jet continues to
bring strong pre-frontal winds across central and eastern NV.
GOES-16 and verified observations of blowing dust with reduced
visibility have occurred. Areas of dust are expected to migrate
eastward into eastern NV through this evening. This will be
combined with areas of blowing snow making for hazardous travel
conditions at times in areas mainly south of I-80. Winds are
progged to remain elevated across northwestern Nye county through
tonight subsiding around before sunrise Monday so wind advisory
was extended for this area.

Conditions will improve Monday night but bitterly cold air will
settle into the area with high temperatures Tuesday only getting
to the lower to mid 20s across much of CWA and lows Tuesday
morning at or below zero, depending on how much snow cover is
present. Another weak system clips northern NV Wednesday but not
much precip is anticipated at this point.

LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday. Overall confidence in
the extended has improved today as both models, with support from
ensemble based guidance, shows a colder and wetter pattern for
later next week.

Wed-Fri will feature a cold trof sliding south from the PacNW.
Model guidance is in much better agreement with regards to
placement and timing of this system. This will be another cold
system with snow at all valley locations.

A brief break in the action is forecast for Sat before another
storm system slides into the Great Basin. Once again, this will be
another cold system with snow at all valley locations.

It is too early to determine specifics and forecast snow amounts.
However, at least light accumulations in the valleys and moderate
amounts are anticipated in the mountains.

Looking beyond the extended, confidence continues to grow that
the pattern will remain cold and wet.

AVIATION...Complex weather scenario continues this afternoon,
therefore will break each TAF site into its own section.

KWMC - Gusty WNW winds continue with BLDU/HZ lowering visibility
to around 6sm. Locally vis may lower to 3sm. As the front moves
through the area from 23Z to 02Z, dust will shift east and south
as snow showers begin. MVFR is likely with IFR possible. Winds
will lessen after sunset.

KEKO - Will continue to see -SHSN, but as the front approaches
around 00Z to 03Z, SN or brief +SN will be possible. BLSN will
also be possible as winds will remain gusty. MVFR and IFR are
likely, with brief LIFR possible. Snow will end late evening or
midnight. Minor runway accumulations will be possible.

KELY - Strong gusty SW winds will continue, with gusts approaching
45kts. Some vicinity BLDU will be possible. Snow showers should
reach the TAF site by early Monday morning. MVFR will be possible
with a low/mod chance of IFR.

KTPH - WInds will continue to strengthen through the aftn.
Guidance suggests KTPH will see gusts around 45kts beginning later
this evening and persisting through the night. BLDU will be
possible, in addition to -SHSN/VCSH. No VIS/CIG reductions
expected.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for Northern Elko
County-Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County-Ruby
Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-
Southeastern Elko County-Southern Lander County and Southern
Eureka County-Southwestern Elko County-White Pine County.

Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Northeastern Nye County-
Northwestern Nye County.

&&

$$

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