Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 192107
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
207 PM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A little cooler weather is expected on Thursday behind
a departing but weak weather system. The next weather system does
not arrive until next Sunday. The overall weather pattern favors
warm afternoons but with crisp mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday.

A weak trough with minimal moisture slides across Nevada this
afternoon. The trough will be over northeast Nevada during peak
heating hours. With marginal instability, orographic showers and
perhaps a lightning strike or two may occur. Radar shows some weak
returns over the Santa Rosa range at 21Z, so isolated showers
over northern Elko county through early evening seems reasonable.

Some cooling occurs behind the trough, resulting in freezing
temperatures in the sheltered valleys north of I80. With the dry
air mass in place, daytime temps rebound nicely but mostly in the
70s.

Flat ridge covers the intermountain West into Friday that keeps
the air mass dry, meaning warm afternoons but with crisp mornings.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through next Wednesday.

Flat ridge weakens on Saturday and gives way to another progressive
trough on Sunday. Prefrontal winds will increase for breezy
conditions on Sunday, but moisture will be lacking with this
system. Ensembles show little QPF, and if something occurs it will
be over the northern Elko county mountains.

Tuesday and Wednesday, ridge amplifies over the west coast states
and keeps northern NV in northwest flow. Slow warming trend occurs
each day with warm afternoons, but cloud free nights yield crisp
mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with no significant weather is expected during
the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Passing shower across the northern mountains may spark a lightning
strike or two later this afternoon/early evening. Overall, dry
weather dominates the pattern for the next several days with warm
afternoons but with cool nights and pockets of freezing
temperatures. Elevated fire weather risk is expected on Sunday as
the next trough brings gusty winds and humidity values remaining
low.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

88/88/88/88


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