Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 182120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
220 PM PDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A few showers will linger through this evening. Day
and night temperatures will be below normal through Tuesday. Then
expect a fast warm-up ahead of the next storm system that will
move through the area Wednesday and Thursday. Rain will turn to
snow in the valleys Thursday night before tapering off.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. There was patchy fog in
the valleys this morning, even around the Elko area, despite the
abundant cloudiness and vicinity showers. Pre-dawn showers formed
a well-defined line over northern Elko County that actually
crossed through Elko. Showers have persisted across northeast
Nevada today and have obtained more of a popcorn look on radar.
Low temperatures in the single digits and teens this morning can
be attributed to the trough with multiple low centers now
enveloping much of the western CONUS. Our exiting low center is
moving out towards the 4-corners area and there is another low
center spinning along the Washington coastline that is refueling
us with cold air. Once again, for the most part, temperatures
didn`t rise above freezing until after noon. A third low feature
is circulating over Montana and a newly-discovered 4th low center
is plotting north over Canada. Showers will taper off this
evening and after about 36 hours of dry conditions, the next storm
will bring some strong winds, escalating temperatures with valley
rain, and mountain snow.

Tonight through Tuesday. This period will be mainly dry. Models
remain consistent that low-amplitude ridging will be persistent.
Areas of freezing fog are expected across much of eastern Nevada
by morning. A few showers may survive the impending subsidence
this evening. And there is a small possibility for a few showers
to develop near the Idaho/Oregon borders Monday and Tuesday as a
relatively moist flow crests the low-profile ridge. Its also
possible to get some showers creeping into western Humboldt County
late Tuesday afternoon...again small chances. Low temperatures
will be in the single digits and teens tonight, rising to the
teens and 20s Monday night. High temperatures will rise through
the 40s Monday to around 50 degrees on Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Wednesday. A deepening upper level low
pressure area off the coast of British Columbia will extend a
strong trough axis along the California coast. This will help pull
in a copious amount of moisture. During this time frame, Nevada
will be mostly in the shadow of the Sierras as a 140-150kt jet
structure moves over northern California. Chances for
precipitation will be increasing a little and snow levels will
begin to rise with the strong southwesterly flow aloft. By
Wednesday afternoon, snow levels are expected to be above all
highway summits within the LKN CWFA. So, the main concern at this
juncture will be the wind gusts over western zones late
Wednesday. Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s. High
temperatures will be in the 60s in many spots.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday.

A low off of the California coast opens up and begins streaming a
good tropical moisture plume from off of the coast of SoCal and
into the Great Basin at the start of the long term. Snow levels
will therefore start off high around 7000` northwest to 9000`
southeast and are not looking like they will drop to the valley
floors until towards the backside of the system on Thursday night
or Friday morning when most of the moisture will have already
made its way through the region. So this is becoming likely to be
a snow producer for higher elevations though still a good rain
producer for the valleys. Very early QPF estimates are .25 to .50
inches with up to an inch in spots and those numbers will likely
change as we get closer to midweek.

Stronger southwest winds are still looking likely, especially on
Thursday afternoon and evening, and wind advisories may be

There may be some leftover snow showers with a cooler day on
Friday, and then forecast confidence drops off dramatically for
the weekend as to the path of the next system and its possible impacts.
One thing that models agree on is that the next system will be
colder than its predecessor.

Above normal temperatures at the start of the long term will drop
to below normal by the end of it.


.AVIATION...A few leftover showers will continue late this
afternoon in the vicinity of KEKO and then the system from the
past 5 days will finally move east. This will allow fog to form at
KEKO tonight and/or tomorrow morning with subsequent lowering
cigs and ceilings. Otherwise VFR conditions expected at all
stations for the next 24 hours.




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