Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 172106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
206 PM PDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...An upper-level low pressure system and cold front
will bring cooler temperatures and a chance of scattered showers
and thunderstorms to northern and central Nevada today. Ahead of
the front, a Wind Advisory is in effect for gusty south to
southwest winds in White Pine and northeastern Nye counties. The
middle and latter part of next week will trend dry and warmer as
daytime temperatures rise back up into the 80s to lower 90s.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday.
Upper-level low pressure system centered over northwest Nevada
will lift northeastward to the junction of NV/OR/ID by evening
and across central Idaho on Monday. This is causing a tight
pressure gradient leading to south to southwest winds gusting up
to 50 mph along and ahead of the surface cold front mainly in
White Pine and northeastern Nye Counties. A Wind Advisory remains
in effect till 8 PM PDT for northeastern Nye and White Pine.
Gusty winds of up to 40 mph can occur from the northwest in
northwestern Nye and from the west in eastern Elko counties today.
Mid- level shortwave energy will arrive along and behind the 700
mb front this afternoon and early evening which will trigger
scattered showers with thunderstorms across northern and central

As the system continues to progress to the east out of the region
Mit`s moisture will linger across the northern Nevada. This will
provide a continued chance of of scattered showers with
thunderstorms to Humboldt and especially northern Elko County on
Monday. As the system moves further eastward the moisture will
begin to tapper off on Tuesday restricting most convection and
precipitation to Elko county.

Daytime temperatures will remain below normal through monday with
many areas in the 60s and 70s with a warming trend setting up that
will last through mid week.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday.

The long term models remain in agreement of keeping a high
pressure system south of NV with a trough moving through NV. The
difference crops up in the timing and intensity of the trough as
it passes through the region. Even with these differences the
weather should be fairly similar. As now the forecast is using a
split in the models as the basis of the forecast

tuesday night will see most of the moisture from the precious
system mostly depart the region leaving remnant moisture only in
northeastern Elko county. This may be enough to cause an isolated
shower Wednesday afternoon. Following this dry weather should
settle across the region that will last through the rest of the
week. The only major shift will occur once the trough moves across
NV bringing gusty winds to the area. The trough does look to be
fairly dry at this time so no precipitation is expected beyond
increased cloud cover. Temperatures should remain in the 80s and
90s for highs through the rest of the week.


.AVIATION...Isolate thunderstorm and showers today. Storms will
produce rain with strong gusty outflow winds possible. Strong
gusty winds today at KELY with a Wind Advisory in effect till 8pm
tonight. None convective Gusty winds of 20 to 30kts are expected
at all other terminals today. A broad low pressure trough will
pass over Nevada today and so wind directions will change from
southerly to northwesterly in the afternoon. Possible low clouds
during the morning hours at KEKO that can lead to MVFR conditions


.FIRE WEATHER...Although strong winds and low RHs will reach
criteria this afternoon and early evening in portions of FWZs 455
and 457, fuels are not yet cured. Scattered showers and wet
thunderstorms will occur in the other FWZs this today. A few
showers and isolated wet thunderstorms will linger mainly across
the northeast in FWZs 468, 469, and 470 on Monday and Tuesday
until upper low pressure moves out of Idaho into Montana. The
weather will trend dry during the middle and latter part of next
week with possible gusty winds returning latter part of next week.


Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Northeastern Nye
County-White Pine County.



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