Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 210736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1236 AM PDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...The week ahead will feature very warm and dry
early fall weather. Afternoon temperatures will climb into
the 80s daily while hazy skies caused by regional wildfires


.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday

Zonal flow will turn southwest today in response to a longwave
trof beginning to build into the Pacific Northwest. Except for a
few clouds and hazy conditions, dry weather will continue and
highs will jump into mid to upper 80`s due to the southwest flow.
Afternoon breezes will pick up a bit and gust to around 25 mph in
central Nevada.

A weak shortwave will progress through the long wave tonight
through Tuesday afternoon. This will just bring some cloud cover
tonight in western Nevada, which will move through eastern Nevada
on Tuesday. Afternoon breezes can be expected in northwest and
southeast counties. The clouds will drop high temperatures down 2
to 3 degrees, though temperatures will still be well above

Morning lows this morning will be in the upper 30`s to the mid
40`s, moderating into the mid 40`s to around 50 on Tuesday
morning. However, below freezing lows will continue in the coldest
northern Elko County valleys.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday evening through Sunday.

The models came into much better agreement with the upper level
pattern Saturday evening and continue to trend well in that
respect. Now comes the time where the models deepen a projected
short wave each model run as they have done many times in the
past. What was progged to be a dry cold front 12 hours ago is now
not quite so dry.

The Aleutian Low will spin off a broad, shallow short wave.
Models are generally synced up however there is still a little
discrepancy with the timing of the trough axis or cold front
associated with this wave. The mean trough axis will pass through
northern Nevada sometime after midnight Thursday night through
midday Friday...a little later timing than before. Snow level
could dip to around 7500 feet as it passes through northern Elko
and northern Humboldt Counties. A second short wave seen earlier
is now imperceptible in the models. Instead, after a clean exit of
the speedy trough, high pressure will build over the Pacific
during the weekend. Temperatures pre-frontal will still be above
normal however the LKN CWFA may be on the cool side of normal
Saturday and Sunday, being that a post-frontal flow from the north
will ensue for about 36 hours.


.AVIATION...Haze will continue to linger across most of the state
through Monday. Impacts to visibility at the surface for the TAF
sites will be marginal to none. So VFR conditions are expected
continue through this forecast period across the region.


.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal temperatures along with hazy skies
and very dry conditions will prevail during the week ahead. Fire
weather conditions will be elevated on Monday afternoon across
central Nevada (FWZs 425, 426, and 427) as south to southwest
winds gust up to around 25 mph with minimum RHs ranging from 10 to
15 percent. Similar elevated conditions could occur on Tuesday
afternoon in northwest portions of the state including FWZ 437.




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