Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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854
FXUS65 KLKN 150729
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1229 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1229 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

* Heat Advisory for most of Northern and Central Nevada until 9 PM
  PDT this evening

* A few strong to severe thunderstorms expected in Northeastern
  Nevada this afternoon into this evening

* Red Flag Warning for White Pine and Northeastern Nye Counties
  until 10 PM PDT this evening due to gusty winds and low relative
  humidity values

* Red Flag Warning for Eastern Elko County until 10 PM PDT this
  evening due to scattered dry thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1229 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An area of high pressure will be
centered over Arizona today. An upper-level trough of low pressure
will dive southward across Northern Nevada this afternoon into
this evening. This trough of low pressure should provide enough
lift and atmospheric instability for thunderstorm development this
afternoon in most of Northern and Central Nevada. A few severe
thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Elko County this afternoon
into this evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind
gusts up to 65 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning
strikes. Critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon in Northeastern Nevada due to scattered dry
thunderstorms. Farther south, critical fire weather conditions are
expected in White Pine and Northeastern Nye Counties due to low
relative humidity values and gusty winds.

Now, on to the heat. High temperatures throughout Northern and
Central Nevada this afternoon will be around five degrees above
normal for this time of year, resulting in a moderate risk for
heat-related illnesses. Although heat events like this are
relative common and happen many times a year, heat-related impacts
are possible for those new to the area if simple precautions are
not taken. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the majority of
Northern and Central Nevada until 9 PM PDT this evening. Here are
probabilities of triple digit heat for select locations in
Northern and Central Nevada on Tuesday, July 15th, 2025:

Winnemucca - 80%
Battle Mountain - 75%
Crescent Valley - 75%
Elko - 50%
Carlin - 50%
West Wendover - 30%

A ridge of high pressure will extend northwestward across Northern
Nevada Wednesday. An upper-level area of low pressure near the
Baja Peninsula will begin to move northward Thursday. This cyclone
aloft may be responsible for thunderstorm development in Central
Nevada both Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. A ridge of
high pressure will move eastward across the Silver State late this
weekend into early next week. High temperatures will remain above
seasonal values each afternoon Wednesday into early next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence in a
moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of
Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon. Moderate forecast
confidence in the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in
Northeastern Nevada this afternoon. High forecast confidence in
critical fire weather conditions in most of Eastern Nevada this
afternoon into this evening. Dry thunderstorm probabilities were
increased in Northeastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals through Wednesday
morning. Winds will be light to breezy out of the West to
Southwest at 5KT to 15KT with gusts up 25KT possible. scattered
dry thunderstorms are possible at all terminals Tuesday afternoon
and evening with erratic outflow winds up to 35KT and few
lightning strikes the main hazards. Ceilings at Tuesday afternoon
with scattered CU will vary between 08kFt to 12kFT.

AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor.
AMD NOT SKED at KBAM due to communication disruption.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Eastern Elko County this
afternoon into this evening due to scattered dry thunderstorms. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect for White Pine and Northeastern Nye
Counties this afternoon into this evening due to wind gusts near
30 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 7 percent.
Isolated dry thunderstorm are possible in parts of Eastern Nevada
both Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon. Elevated fire
weather conditions are expected in Western Humboldt County Friday
due to wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values
as low as 8 percent.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ030-033-036>038-040-041.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ425-470.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...87