Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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370
FXUS64 KLZK 241214 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
610 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.AVIATION...
Areas of low clouds/some fog will be noted this morning across
much of Arkansas, with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions. As
the day progresses, fog will dissipate and south/southwest
winds will increase. Showers/thunderstorms will also become
numerous, with strong/damaging wind gusts possible over the
southeast half of the state this afternoon/early evening.

Precipitation will wind down tonight from the west, and clouds will
dissipate. VFR conditions will return to most areas. Showers may
linger overnight in the southeast.

Winds will be south/southwest at 10 to 20 mph today, with some gusts
over 30 mph. Winds will shift to the west/northwest late this
afternoon and tonight. Gusty conditions will continue this evening,
with winds gradually decreasing overnight. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
The focus lately has been on heavy/excessive rain and flooding
across Arkansas. This is still a concern in the near term, but
so is severe weather.

A potent storm system will track from the Texas panhandle this
morning into eastern Missouri by this evening. The system will
drag a cold front into the region, with widespread
showers/thunderstorms ahead of the front.

As the system tracks through the southern Plains, a warm front
over southern sections of the state will slowly lift to the north.
There is plenty of low clouds/fog/drizzle north of the front
early this morning, and this will continue for a few hours. This
boundary will make it into northern sections of the state by this
afternoon. The heaviest rain will be along/north of the front,
with severe storms farther south.

For now, have locally more than two inches of rain in the forecast
from Mena to Morrilton and Batesville. Just north and south of
this band, have one to two inch amounts, with half inch to inch
totals in the southeast.

Severe storms will mainly affect the southeast half of Arkansas
this afternoon. Most unstable CAPE values are in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range, with 0-1km helicity values over 300 m2/s2. There will
likely be a line of storms, and it will move quickly. Would be
worried about discreet cells/supercells ahead of the line, and
rotation in cells along the line. In brief, the main concerns
are strong/damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

Precipitation will mostly come to an end and the sky will clear
tonight as the front slides to the east. There will be lingering
chances of showers in the southeast, and this will continue into
Sunday. The period will finish with dry conditions Sunday night.

As far as temperatures, readings will climb well above average
today. Readings will be closer to seasonal by Sunday/Sunday night,
but still above average.
&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
High pressure will be in place at the surface across the region at
the start of the long term portion of the forecast and will continue
to remain nearby through Tuesday as it begins to shift east. Zonal
flow aloft will begin to transition more out of the southwest by
Tuesday as a trough is set to dive south of the four corners region
and approach Arkansas from the west.

Moisture will begin to return to the state and temperatures will
warm as well. A warm front moving north over the state will signal
the major change at the surface on Wednesday, before a developing
low pressure system and trailing cold front look to move nearby and
through the area Thursday. Rain and thunderstorms are likely ahead
of this front, with severe weather a possibility.

Behind this front, cooler but near normal temperatures will appear
in the forecast along with drier conditions for the time being.
There is still some uncertainty with regards to location and timing
of the primary shortwave aloft and surface features as well.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  41  60  38 / 100  80   0  10
Camden AR         76  46  64  42 /  90  80  20  10
Harrison AR       64  35  60  36 / 100  30   0   0
Hot Springs AR    71  43  61  40 / 100  50  10  10
Little Rock   AR  73  44  61  40 / 100  80  10  10
Monticello AR     78  50  62  43 /  70  90  20  20
Mount Ida AR      71  39  62  39 / 100  30  10  10
Mountain Home AR  65  36  61  36 / 100  40   0   0
Newport AR        71  43  59  39 / 100  80   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     76  46  60  42 /  80  90  10  10
Russellville AR   69  37  61  38 / 100  30   0   0
Searcy AR         72  43  60  39 / 100  80  10  10
Stuttgart AR      74  45  60  42 /  80  90  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...46 / Long Term...67



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