Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 161937
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
237 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Thunderstorms persist this afternoon within an atmosphere
characterized by large instability (MLCAPE values on the order of
2500 J/kg), weak shear, and rich boundary layer moisture. As
such, storms have and will continue exhibiting a tendency for
explosive development, followed by updraft collapse and an
associated wind threat. Some isolated severe hail cannot be ruled
out. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, although some
storms have become briefly severe, and this trend should continue
through evening. Weak steering flow aloft will contribute to a
marginal flash flood threat, particularly where training echoes
occur, or where storm clusters remain nearly stationary.

The overall synoptic pattern is not expected to change
significantly through the period. An expansive 594 dam upper ridge
remains anchored across the Desert Southwest, generating an
unstable northwest flow regime aloft across much of the south-
central CONUS. Surface ridging will also remain a fixture across
the area. Intense insolation during the afternoon hours, in the
presence of dewpoint temps in the 70s, will contribute to
significant destabilization, so thunderstorms will be a good bet
each afternoon and evening. The lack of broad synoptic forcing
yields lower confidence in areal coverage and timing, however.

Temperature-wise, most areas outside higher terrain will see highs
in the low-to-mid 90s each afternoon, with overnight lows in the
70s. Heat index values Tuesday afternoon will approach advisory
criteria, but due to uncertainty with convection and associated
cloud cover, will hold off on hoisting headlines attm. By
Wednesday, persistent convection and more cloud cover should hold
temperatures down a few degrees versus previous days. Still, hot
and humid conditions will persist, and caution should be
exercised by anyone outdoors and by those most at risk from heat-
related stress.

Cooper

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

Models continue to advertise the pattern becoming more amplified
with time. Upper ridging currently over Four Corners/Great Basin
will amplify with time as several pieces of shortwave energy round
the ridge and carve out downstream troughing. With models in
generally good agreement in the synoptic scale, a blend of solutions
will be used.

Period initiates with an upper disturbance moving to the north of
the state with some precipitation chances early Thursday morning,
especially across the east. As the pattern gets established several
more pieces of energy will be moving through the prevailing flow
with ongoing chances of convection through Friday. Timing in this
type of pattern is difficult and a general broadbrush approach will
be used.

Ridge starts to get locked in to our west over the weekend with a
noticeable decrease in precipitation chances until late in the
period. Even with a prevailing northwest flow aloft, temperatures
will remain very warm but not oppressively so. Latest guidance
continues to show readings close to or just a few degrees above
normal for mid to late July.

Goudsward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  92  73  88 /  20  30  30  50
Camden AR         76  96  76  93 /  30  40  40  30
Harrison AR       72  88  70  86 /  20  50  30  40
Hot Springs AR    76  94  76  90 /  30  50  50  30
Little Rock   AR  76  94  76  90 /  20  50  30  50
Monticello AR     76  94  75  91 /  30  50  50  30
Mount Ida AR      75  92  74  90 /  30  40  40  30
Mountain Home AR  73  91  71  87 /  20  30  40  50
Newport AR        75  91  74  89 /  20  30  20  40
Pine Bluff AR     75  94  76  91 /  20  50  30  40
Russellville AR   76  93  76  90 /  20  50  30  50
Searcy AR         74  93  74  89 /  20  40  30  50
Stuttgart AR      75  93  75  88 /  20  50  30  50
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...COOPER / Long Term...GOUDSWARD


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