


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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323 FXUS64 KMAF 140524 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Continued shower/thunderstorm chances today, mainly in/near the higher terrain (40-60% there, 10-40% elsewhere). Rain chances Monday look similar to those of today. Localized flash flooding remains possible. - Gradual warming and drying trend after Monday, but with persistent rain chances southwest and west of Permian Basin and temperatures remaining seasonable into end of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 What a difference 24 hours makes. WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper ridge just off the coast of SoCal, buttressed by a stubborn trough anchored over central Texas. KMAF 12Z RAOB came in with a PWAT of only 1.13"...under the daily mean of 1.18", suggesting a drying trend, at least temporarily, for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. That said, the only convection anticipated today and tonight will be confined to the mountains as easterly winds flow upslope. CAMs also develop isolated convection into the Southeast New Mexico Plains this evening. The LLJ is forecast to remain rather tepid this evening, allowing more efficient radiational cooling and overnight minimums to cool to within a degree or so of normal. Monday, the trough is forecast to move little, but thicknesses will begin increasing over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, beginning a gradual-but-steady warming trend. Even so, highs Monday afternoon should come in a piteous 3-4 F below normal. Upslope flow will again promote orographic convective activity during the afternoon/evening, mainly invof the Davis Mountains. Monday night, this convection will taper off during the evening. The LLJ is forecast to strengthen a little, but temperatures should remain near tonight`s, if not a skosh warmer as a result. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Warming and drying trend begins Tuesday as ridging builds west from southeastern US and surface lee troughing develops over eastern NM into W TX. These features suppress lift over eastern and central parts of the area, decreasing rain chances for Permian Basin to low by Tuesday, and to moderate southwest of Permian Basin during Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon through evening. Rain probabilities also decrease to moderate each afternoon and evening into end of the week across SE NM plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Presidio Valley. Highs climbs from Monday, reaching mid 80s in higher elevations, lower to mid 90s, and mid 90s to triple digits along Rio Grande into Terrell County, increasing by a few degrees each day. Humid southeast winds keep dew point temperatures in mid to upper 60s, mid to lower 60s F for western higher terrain. These dew point temperatures and overnight cloud cover limit radiational cooling, with lows each night remaining in mid 60s to mid 70s F. Shear stays below 30 knots, limiting organized storm updrafts and longevity. Therefore, main impacts from storms are heavy rain/flash flooding, gusty winds, and small hail. Compared to previous forecasts, forecast rainfall has decreased to mean amounts of a few tenths of an inch up to 0.50" and low probabilities of amounts above that, with PWATs while still above average, decreasing more rapidly than previously forecast into end of the week/next weekend. By next weekend, highs reach the lower to mid 90s, mid to upper 80s higher elevations, and upper 90s into triple digits along Rio Grande into Terrell County, while lows warm into mid 70s F, mid to upper 60s F northern Lea County and Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos. However, dew point temperatures decrease with more southerly winds starting Friday, so less humid weather is forecast by next weekend even with return of warmer than average temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds remains generally out of the southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 92 71 91 72 / 10 10 10 0 Carlsbad 88 70 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 Dryden 92 72 93 73 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Stockton 92 71 94 71 / 20 10 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 82 66 85 67 / 20 10 10 10 Hobbs 88 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 0 Marfa 85 62 85 63 / 40 10 50 10 Midland Intl Airport 91 71 92 72 / 10 10 10 10 Odessa 89 71 91 71 / 10 10 10 10 Wink 91 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...13