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000
FXUS64 KMAF 270538
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1238 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty north/northeast winds are affecting all terminals tonight in
the wake of a cold front, with at least a few gusts expected to
continue through much of the night. Wind speeds will gradually
decrease, especially after daybreak, with winds expected to veer
around to the east/southeast by the afternoon. VFR conditions will
prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough translating southeastward over the southern U.S.
Plains this afternoon/tonight will be too far north to give us any
rain chances, but will send a cold front south through the region
overnight.  Northerly winds behind the front will be pretty
blustery, with some locations over Southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin seeing sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph, and gusts of
40 to 45 mph.  Strong winds are indicated in Guadalupe Pass tonight,
but think the MOS output there is way too high, as per the last
frontal boundary?MOS output Tuesday night.  Since wind speeds
will be on the low end of warning criteria of 40 mph sustained,
will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.  As far as
Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin, think northerly winds
could eclipse 30 mph sustained in a few locations, but will not
last long enough for a Wind Advisory.

Lows tonight will be a few degrees below normal while temperatures
will be pleasant areawide Friday afternoon with highs around 5
degrees below normal.  Temperatures will top out near normal levels
Saturday, with a few models attempting to develop thunderstorms over
the higher terrain.  Will carry a slight chance there, but limited
low level moisture return may keep much of anything from developing.
A deepening ua trough over the western CONUS will result in better
moisture return Sunday, while southwest flow aloft over the region
sharpens a dryline up over the higher terrain/Trans Pecos Sunday
afternoon.  Since high temperatures will around 5 degrees above
normal, SBCape will be at least 1000 to 1500 J/Kg in the vicinity of
the dryline.  A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out due
to 30-40 kt 0-6 km bulk shear, mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km,
and perhaps a timely mid level shortwave trough.  The dryline will
make it farther eastward Monday, but there may not be enough mid
level support for much convection then.  On Tuesday and Wednesday,
the dryline will likely mix east of the forecast area as
southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of an approaching ua
trough, so attention will turn to hot and dry conditions, and more
widespread fire weather concerns.  Model differences increase
thereafter, so determining fire weather concerns or rain chances
will have to wait for better agreement.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns Friday and through the weekend will not be
great, but thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday could spark ignitions
since fuels remain very dry over most of the forecast area.
Southwesterly flow aloft will increase next week as an upper level
storm system takes shape over the western CONUS.   Fire weather
concerns will increase over the Guadalupe Mountains and SE NM
Monday, then spread over the Upper Trans Pecos and western Permian
Basin Tuesday, and areawide Wednesday.  Temperatures will warm 5 to
10 degrees above normal each day, while RHs drop to 5-15% over the
above mentioned areas.  Wind speeds may be a little lacking, but a
deep mixing layer may result in stronger winds than models are
indicating so far.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  52  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       77  50  83  57 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         81  56  80  59 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  77  53  81  57 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  51  77  58 /   0   0  20  30
Hobbs                          74  48  80  54 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          72  44  78  46 /   0  10  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           78  53  82  60 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         77  53  82  59 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           80  51  84  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$