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653
FXUS64 KMAF 172331
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
531 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with some high clouds. Weak frontal boundary that lifted will
push back through with the wind becoming E/SE at all TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front moved through the area last night and has brought
cooler temperatures and lighter winds to the area. High pressure
behind the front will slowly move south over the next 48 hours
creating slow but persistent cold air advection that will see
temperatures drop through Tuesday. Models are showing light QPF
developing Tuesday as an upper trough moves into the Four Corners
region increasing isentropic lift. Surface temperatures will be
below freezing north of I-20 creating the potential for a wintry
mix of precipitation that could cause some travel concerns Tue AM.
Forecast soundings show moisture is very shallow, extending only
to 4,000ft, which likely isn`t deep enough for snow so the main
precip type is expected to be very light sleet or freezing rain
(possibly freezing drizzle given the very low QPF amounts). We
have seen earlier this winter light accumulations of only 1/10th
of an inch of ice creating travel problems and this usually occurs
when temps fall below the mid 20s. That puts the northern and
central Lea County and Gaines County as the areas with the
greatest potential for travel problems but everyone should be
alert. Conditions improve late next week with the next front due
on Saturday.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  48  31  39 /   0   0  20  30
Carlsbad                       30  59  32  54 /   0   0  10  30
Dryden                         41  58  43  63 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  38  59  37  60 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 34  58  27  45 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          27  52  23  47 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          28  61  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  53  33  46 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         33  54  32  48 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           32  59  32  55 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$