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000
FXUS64 KMAF 151042
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
442 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
mostly light out of generally the southwest. Some elevated winds
are possible this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Shortwave ridging will pass overhead today which will allow high
temperatures to warm above normal areawide.  Above normal temps will
continue on Sunday but a weak southern stream shortwave trough
moving over the region Sunday night and Monday, will increase
clouds, and keep high temperatures closer to normal Monday
afternoon.  This system will also bring at least a slight chance of
rain to western portions of the forecast area Sunday night and
Monday, and even the potential for a mix of rain and snow in the
higher elevations of the Davis Mountains.  But since this ua trough
is pretty weak, and low level moisture is limited, will keep
precipitation chances on the low side.  Will monitor later runs to
see if this changes though, since recent model runs have struggled
with the strength/amplitude of the ua trough.

A little stronger upper trough is progged to dig southeastward over
the southern Rockies and over the region on Tuesday.  There is still
quite a bit of disagreement on the evolution of this secondary upper
trough, so will keep rain chances to a dull roar for now.  Yet
another shortwave trough will dive southeastward over the Rockies
Wednesday/Thursday and carve out a highly amplified ua trough over
the Mississippi River Valley by Thursday.  This will leave our area
dry, but mild temperatures Wednesday will be knocked down closer to
normal behind a cold front Thursday.  Temperatures should moderate
on Friday/Saturday ahead of the next shortwave trough moving through
the central/southern U.S. Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  37  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  37  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         66  37  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  66  39  62  41 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 55  40  55  39 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          64  34  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          61  31  60  35 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           64  38  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         64  37  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           64  35  62  37 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/