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000
FXUS64 KMAF 121706
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1206 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR currently at all terminals. Post frontal winds
beginning to slack with less frequent gusts at most locales. Winds
will settle and slowly veer more E/NE`ly by late-afternoon. Winds
increase again overnight as gradient tightens with second push of
cooler air as high pressure builds south. More gusts likely after
03z at all terminals. Low level winds above surface bring moist
air north with MVFR ceilings likely at all locations prior to
sunrise (13z). Borderline IFR ceilings for KFST by said timeframe,
but went with MVFR to cover with future adjustments when
necessary. -SHRA over KMAF possible end of TAF cycle, but not
confident enough for prevailing.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 AM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021/

DISCUSSION...
As of 06Z/Mon the cold front was s of a CDS-CVN line and by 12Z is
expected to be along/just s of a Carlsbad-Jal-Big Spring-Colorado
City line, the stronger push now is thought move s thru ern NM.
Still noticeably cooler today with highs mostly in the 70s, except
80s lower elevations of the Trans Pecos, 90s Rio Grande.
Indications as compared to those 24hrs ago support less post-
frontal wind and less BLDU. Low level mstr will hang on across the
far s and a few strong/severe storms cannot be ruled across the
Lower Trans Pecos and even the far SE PB late afternoon and
evening. Thru at least Thu surface high pressure will frequently
be re-enforced serving to keep the surface-8h layer cool and at
times moist. The 85h-8h layer will remain saturated as isentropic
ascent persists and as such much of the area will experience near
normal (today) to below normal temps. Wed clouds will attempt to
erode on the wrn edge, possibly extending into the cntrl PB as ne
winds deepen behind a cool surge. All the meanwhile the near zonal
flow aloft will extended far enough w and persist for enough of
an extended time for periodic shrtwv trofs/speed maxima to move
across the area. As shrtwv trofs/speed maxima move across the
possibility of elevated convection will increase. Of course low
amplitude shrtwv trof/s are difficult to discern and time, but for
now looks like one may move thru the flow late Tue night-Wed PM
with a corresponding uptick in precip coverage. Thu PM the dryline
will attempt to sharpen, but keeps a far wwd position with
indications of a 3h speed max arriving late in the day. Wly
surface winds will surge e on Fri with a rapid warm-up for most
areas. The assocd cold front will be moving s and pass thru the
nrn CWFA btwn 00Z-06Z/Sat. This cold surge will make for an
unseasonably cool weekend, highs in the 60s with light post-
frontal precip?

FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move into the region this morning, expected to
progress into the Southeast New Mexico Plains and northern Permian
Basin prior to daybreak, reaching I-20 by mid morning, and slowing
as it moves south toward I-10 this afternoon. Behind the front
across the Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, and Southeast New
Mexico, temperatures will be much cooler with increasing moisture
mitigating fire weather concerns, though winds will become gusty out
of the north-northeast from this morning through early afternoon.
Ahead of the front, another day of above normal temperatures is
expected (around 5-10 deg above normal for most, up to 12-14 deg
above normal through the Rio Grande Valley), with critical RHs
expected generally along and west of the Pecos River, and lowest
single digit RHs through the Rio Grande Valley and Big Bend Area.
Winds ahead of the front will generally remain around 15-20mph at
best as they shift to the northwest and north, thus, only near
critical fire weather conditions are anticipated based on fuel
characteristics and antecedent and forecast conditions. There may be
brief periods of localized critical conditions in topographically
favored areas, however, the expected brief nature precludes issuance
of a Red Flag Warning, and thus will handle with a Fire Danger
Statement this afternoon across the Lower Trans Pecos/Stockton
Plateau, Davis Mountains and Foothills, and locations south to the
Rio Grande. Of additional concern this afternoon and evening are
thunderstorms that may develop across portions of the Stockton
Plateau and perhaps far southeastern Permian Basin, with
accompanying lightning and erratic gusty winds yielding increased
concerns for lightning starts and enhanced IA potential.

The front will make it to the Rio Grande this evening, with winds
shifting to the northeast to east areawide tonight, becoming
elevated by late evening. Moisture will be on the increase, with
near and below normal temperatures expected for the remainder of the
week, mitigating additional fire weather concerns beyond today. Rain
and thunderstorm chances also return each day through Friday,
especially across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Some
locations may be lucky enough to receive wetting rains this week,
however, IA potential will remain fairly high in the vicinity of any
thunderstorms given the state of fuels (ERCs approaching or
exceeding the 90th percentile for much of the region).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  59  49  61 /  20  40  50  50
Carlsbad                       47  63  46  68 /  10  20  20  40
Dryden                         59  70  57  78 /  10  40  30  40
Fort Stockton                  51  63  51  72 /  10  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 47  61  46  68 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                          43  58  44  62 /  10  30  40  50
Marfa                          43  70  41  78 /   0  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           48  59  48  64 /  10  40  50  50
Odessa                         48  59  47  64 /  10  40  50  50
Wink                           49  62  48  71 /  10  30  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

87