Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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224
FXUS64 KMAF 252000
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
300 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Sat vis imagery and sfc obs show a pleasant fall day across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/temps well-above normal, and set
to top out in the 90s for most of the area.  This will be short-
lived, however.  WV imagery shows a broad, upper trough moving thru
the central CONUS, which will drag a cold front thru the region late
this afternoon/tonight.  Sfc analysis and area radars put the front
just north of Lea County at 18Z--much faster than any of the models
depicted.  The front has slowed somewhat w/diurnal heating, and
models had it coming thru KMAF at 02-03Z, but it may arrive a bit
before.  Gap winds look to develop thru KGDP, and we`ll upgrade the
watch there to a warning.  MOS winds are typically too high for
these events, and we`ll stick to the lower end.

Forecast soundings show some instablilty along the front, but not
much.  Still, elevated, isolated activity will be possible, mainly
over the eastern zones in the better moisture tonight/Thu.  Models
depict modest isentropic upglide behind the front, for good wetting
rains and QPFs on the order of 1/2" or so.  For temps, we`re not
quite going w/midnight highs on this one, but nevertheless the
diurnal range Thu will be small, w/highs most locations only in the
60s.

Temps quickly rebound to near-normal by Fri afternoon, after which
they will remain thru the extended as upper ridging tries to
establish over the srn CONUS.  The 06Z run of the GFS tried to bring
a secondary front into the area Sat, but lost it on the 12Z run.
Rain chances look slim, and confined to the SE zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  62  49  76 /  40  50  30   0
Carlsbad                       58  63  51  79 /  40  60  10  10
Dryden                         69  75  58  74 /   0  40  30  20
Fort Stockton                  62  65  52  75 /  10  50  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 55  59  49  74 /  30  60  20  10
Hobbs                          52  59  47  76 /  50  70  10   0
Marfa                          58  67  49  74 /  20  40  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           59  63  50  76 /  30  60  20  10
Odessa                         59  63  49  76 /  30  60  20  10
Wink                           60  64  51  76 /  30  70  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to noon MDT Wednesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

84/44



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