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246
FXUS64 KMAF 162250
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
550 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect thunderstorms to weaken/dissipate around 17/00Z, so
probability will be too low to include any mention at any area
terminals.  Otherwise, VFR will prevail tonight and Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018/

Drier mid-level air has pushed into most of CWFA per GOES-16
water vapor, except the wrn 1/4 or so where the mid-level theta-e
ridge is still in place. As such convective potential is
maximized across the w. However based on RAP13/NAM12 soundings
convection cannot be ignored across the PB. As we see it, there is
a window for showers, a few storms, across the PB til around 00Z.
Heavy rain yesterday across the mtns and PWs of 1-2 standard
deviations above normal there today supports the continuation of
local flash flooding concerns into early evening. Mid-level
ridging will have an increased presence Tue with axis to the n,
thus e-se mid-level flow. Drier air will be deeper and a storm
will be hard to come by, including the mtns. A surface thermal
ridge will be most pronounced in the e-ne CWFA and with much lower
dewpoints some triple digits highs can be expected, expanding to
most all areas along and e of the Pecos River Wed. Even in the
mornings moisture will be less. Dry subsident air on Thur will
support high temps of 100-105. Fri-Mon the presence of the mid-
level ridge becomes status quo with NAEFS depicting 7h temps of
14-16C, 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Heat advisory
conditions still possible if not likely and we will likely start
issuing Special Weather Statements Tue AM for the upcoming heat.
Some indications that the ridge may develop back to the w early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 101  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  96  71 102 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         73  99  74 105 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  71  96  71 101 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  90  69  95 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          69  95  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  89  62  94 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           74  99  74 103 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         74  98  74 103 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           72  99  73 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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