Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 222304
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
504 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings and visibilities are possible for MAF beginning
around 10z and continuing until around 17z. Winds will be mostly
light out of the south with some variability.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue through Friday night as a
Pacific storm system slowly tracks toward the region. Another cool
and moist night is expected with light winds and trapped low level
moisture aiding in areas of fog late tonight and Friday morning
across the Permian Basin. Will also continue a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms through the day Friday in the extreme
eastern Permian Basin ahead of a dryline in this persistent flow
regime. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase
Friday night across the central and eastern Permian Basin ahead of
the dryline and Pacific front as large scale lift increases ahead
of the aforementioned Pacific system tracking into the Rockies.

By late Friday night and Saturday the upper level storm system
will move onto the plains. Strong winds may develop in the Guadalupe
Mountains as winds significantly increase through the column.
Will go ahead and issue a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe
Mountains late Friday evening through Saturday. Windy to very
windy conditions may develop in portions of the plains Saturday
and Wind Advisories may be needed Saturday behind the Pacific
front.

Behind this system dry conditions and near normal temperatures are
expected in near zonal flow Saturday through next Monday. Another
Pacific storm looks in the offing by the middle of next week but
guidance is still in significant disagreement on the outcomes
for this system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  61  45  65 /  20  20  30   0
Carlsbad                       33  68  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  72  48  78 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  39  72  42  64 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  65  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          32  67  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  70  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  65  43  64 /  10  10  20   0
Odessa                         38  64  43  64 /  10  10  20   0
Wink                           36  70  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/


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