Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 192342
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
642 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR now with some high clouds over the area with some high based
CU over the Trans Pecos. As SE low level flow increases could see
low clouds move in before sunrise at MAF and HOB... cigs could
dip into the MVFR category. Otherwise did include mention of
overnight storms possible at MAF... INK... and HOB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019/

DISCUSSION...

  * Potential for strong to severe storms after midnight.
  * Second round of severe weather expected Monday afternoon into
    Monday evening.
  * Mainly afternoon and evening storms, some strong to severe,
    possible late this week into the weekend.

Complex forecast situation evolving this afternoon as a vigorous
upper trough takes aim on the southern High Plains. Moist
isentropic upglide intensifies after midnight, especially over the
Permian Basin west across southeastern New Mexico. Elevated
convection is increasingly likely over these areas, mainly after
09Z. There`s sufficient CAPE aloft and enough shear for organized
convection, thus large hail and damaging winds cannot be ruled
out over the northern and central Permian Basin before sunrise
Monday. As this round of convection exits into north and central
Texas tomorrow morning, this sets up the stage for...

Round 2 looks to be complicated. Models agree that a dryline will
sharpen up along the Texas/New Mexico border tomorrow morning and
mix east to perhaps a Lamesa-Midland-Fort Stockton-Rio Grande
Village line by mid afternoon. What complicates the picture here
at the surface is any residual outflow boundaries from overnight
convection, how much differential heating will take place, both
from residual cloudiness and from evapotranspirative flux from
areas receiving rain overnight, and the quality of PBL recovery
in advance of the main trough Monday evening. Upper level forcing
is quite robust over the southern High Plains Monday evening,
with impressive Q-vector divergence noted at 250 mb in the right
entrance region of a 100+ knot jet streak. The expected
thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space (effective bulk shear > 60
kts, effective SRH > 200 J/kg, and MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg) all favor
supercells with the potential to produce tornadoes in a pristine
air mass, but with boundaries and differential heating, the best
probabilities for these supercells to occur would be over the
northeastern Basin and western Low Rolling Plains sometime between
23Z and 03Z. In addition, abundant moisture will result in
localized areas of heavy rainfall tomorrow evening, especially in
the aforementioned areas. Lastly, there`s always the chance of
something blowing up over the Glass Mountains and moving east
across Pecos County, with all attendant severe weather impacts in
play down there. All this to say that, regardless of where you
are, it`s always best to stay weather aware and maintain a
heightened state of situation awareness tomorrow.

Out west of the dryline Monday afternoon, wind speeds will begin
to increase as strong westerly momentum for this time of year
mixes to the surface. RH readings here will fall to 10 percent or
maybe below as temperatures warm into the 90s. There`s been enough
greenup to suggest that a Red Flag Warning is not expected at
this time, mainly over the mountains, but this might change...stay
tuned. And there`s going to be strong winds over the Guadalupe
and Apache Mountains. Current guidance suggests that this may be a
marginal high wind situation, so we`ve opted to keep the current
watch in effect for the time being and let the next set of model
guidance (and forecasters!) determine whether an upgrade is
needed.

Whew. Convection finally moves east and out of the area late
Monday night, and with subsidence and gusty westerly winds
expected Tuesday, rain chances will be close to nil Tuesday and
again Tuesday night. But with a mean flow regime favoring a
western CONUS trough and an eastern CONUS ridge, Gulf moisture
will be quick to return to the region Wednesday, scattered
thunderstorms are forecast for the northern Basin Wednesday night
into Thursday. Thereafter mainly diurnal convection along a
sloshing dryline is forecast to persist through the weekend. With
late May thermodynamics in place, strong to potentially severe
storms are not out of the question each day. Coverage and overall
intensity may change depending on minor short wave troughs
embedded within the mean southwesterly mean flow aloft and
mesoscale features at the surface which are about impossible to
predict with any precision beyond a day or so.

After a bit of a cooldown Tuesday, temperatures should stay close
to late May normals through the weekend. The Western Low Rolling
Plains and the eastern Permian Basin may escape the 90s for the
time being, but the plains of southeastern New Mexico down to the
Rio Grande valley will see readings in the mid 90s to around 103.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  86  57  79 /  40  50  60   0
Carlsbad                       61  89  53  81 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         72  96  64  89 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  69  95  57  83 /  20  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  80  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          63  87  51  77 /  40   0  10   0
Marfa                          55  90  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           69  88  57  80 /  40  30  30   0
Odessa                         68  89  57  80 /  40  20  30   0
Wink                           67  94  56  83 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
     for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson County-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$


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