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000
FXUS64 KMAF 252149
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
449 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars/mesoanalysis and a peek out the window shows fropa
just occurred at KMAF, bringing pleasant MVFR BLDU in its wake.
Upstream obs suggest cigs will crater rapidly over the next 12
hours or so, w/forecast soundings taking KMAF/KHOB to LIFR by
sunrise, and IFR most other terminals. Due to the strength of the
front, conditions should not improve much through the end of the
forecast period, at least not for the NE terminals. Precip chances
w/the incoming trough are not high enough for a mention attm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020/

DISCUSSION...

..WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A strong upper-level storm system combined with an arctic air mass
near the sfc will set the stage for a wintry mix across our region
beginning Monday night and lasting through mid-week. Now is the time
to make preparations because travel may be greatly impacted,
especially for areas that receive any amount of accumulating ice.

As of 400 PM CDT, a cold front is already through the NE Permian
Basin and now approaching MAF. Temperatures are falling into the
50s and 60s directly north of the boundary with 80s and 90s to
the south. The arctic air is still sitting N of Amarillo and will
make a push towards West TX and SE NM late tomorrow. Temperatures
will continue to fall behind the front through the rest of tonight
as CAA occurs and low clouds move in. Not much rise in the
mercury is expected during the day tomorrow, if at all, except
across the Big Bend region as the shallow cold air damns up
against the higher terrain.

Meanwhile, an upper level trof which is now beginning to dig over
the Western CONUS is projected to deepen into a cutoff low over
AZ/NM throughout the day tomorrow. This low will move INVOF the
TX/NM state line around 12Z Wednesday. As it does so, deep lift
ahead of this feature will overspread the shallow cold airmass at
the sfc. Light Precipitation should begin late tonight as upglide
behind the frontal boundary commences. Precipitation will be rain
or drizzle as temperatures remain above freezing tonight and
tomorrow. However, by tomorrow night into Tuesday morning, a
reinforcing shot of cold arctic air will arrive and that is when
our winter precipitation begins. We have gone ahead and issued a
Winter Storm Watch for most of West Texas and southeast New Mexico
beginning tomorrow night and lasting through Wednesday morning
and a High Wind Watch for Guadalupe Pass. During this time period,
we will most likely see rain transition to freezing rain from N
to S with accumulating ice possible along and N of I-10. A hard
freeze is expected as far south as HWY 90 in N Brewster County by
Tuesday morning. Thus, a Freeze Watch has also been issued for
most of the region except for the Big Bend area.

Latest model runs indicated a decent swath of accumulating ice
will be possible mainly along and N of I-20 from MAF to SNK by
early Tuesday morning. This could make travel difficult or near
impossible, especially if temperatures do not rise above freezing
during the day Tuesday. As the upper low moves over the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday, another round of wintry precipitation
is possible. Forecast soundings now indicate a transition to snow
across the W Permian Basin into portions of southeast NM early
Wednesday. If and when this occurs, there could be a few inches of
accumulating snow across these areas before everything comes to a
close Wednesday afternoon.

After Wednesday, temperatures will rebound to near normal by this
weekend with dry weather returning and it looks like we will not
have to deal with winter weather again for a while.

-Salerno

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     39  41  30  35 /  60  50  80  80
Carlsbad                       41  42  26  32 /  20  20  60  70
Dryden                         58  62  37  47 /  10  20  50  40
Fort Stockton                  46  48  27  34 /  20  20  60  60
Guadalupe Pass                 41  43  18  29 /  20  20  50  60
Hobbs                          34  35  23  30 /  30  30  80  70
Marfa                          45  57  27  38 /   0   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           39  41  28  32 /  50  30  80  70
Odessa                         39  42  27  33 /  40  30  80  70
Wink                           43  44  29  35 /  30  20  70  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday
     night for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
     Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-
     Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday morning
     for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$

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