Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 200830
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
330 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday/
High pressure aloft and at the surface both shift further east
over the East Coast. Afterwards, return flow off of the Gulf of
Mexico will enhance the sea breeze over southeast Texas. This
activity will makes its way into Deep East Texas and Northwest
Louisiana by the afternoon. There could be some heavy downpours
with this convection as precipitable water values are right around
2 inches, both here and further south. High temperatures today
will be warm but not quite as much as the last few days with the
expected increase in cloud cover. Low temperatures tonight will
still average area-wide around 10 degrees above normal.

An approaching cold front and southwesterly flow aloft will
significantly increase rain chances for tomorrow afternoon and
evening. Initially, the greatest rain chances will be over East
Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas but will spread
elsewhere as the afternoon progresses. High temperatures on Friday
will return to near normal values. /35/

.LONG TERM.../Friday Night through Wednesday Night/

Stg upper ridge movg eastward and centered over Carolina coast this
wknd. Cold front detaches from westerlies further north and meanders
generally just to the north of I-30 this wknd. ECMWF keeps boundary
mostly out of our area, gfs brings front well into area, and nam
brings front into ne TX, but hangs shallow colder air over Ouachita
mts across AR portions of the region. All said, have kept likely
pops over much of north and west portions of area early in wknd with
high chance pops remainder of area, and covering larger portion of
cwa in likely by Sunday. Heavy rain can be expected and aftn highs
may barely exceed 80 degrees where this occurs. Some low lvl veering
could also produce a few stg storms closer to frontal boundary.
Upper ridge will expand wwd back into nrn gulf and may see pops
decrease some from the south by early week with aftn highs
approaching 90 for at least areas south of I-20. By mid week, broad
upper lvl troughing will send a cold front into the area with rain
chances decreasing from the north and less thunder potential with
any postfrontal rain that may linger towards end of extended
period. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  75  90  74 /  30  10  50  40
MLU  94  74  93  73 /  20  10  40  30
DEQ  92  72  89  71 /  20  10  60  60
TXK  93  75  89  72 /  30  10  50  60
ELD  93  74  91  72 /  20  10  40  40
TYR  91  74  88  73 /  30  10  60  50
GGG  91  75  90  73 /  30  10  60  50
LFK  91  76  89  74 /  30  10  60  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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