Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 190924
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
424 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday night/

An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Southern
Plains today, with our region on eastern periphery of the ridge
axis. A weak disturbance will rotate around the eastern edge of
the ridge today. At the same time another round of sea breeze
convection will move northward into the region this afternoon.
Decided to insert slight to low chance POPs, generally along and
east of a line from Lufkin TX to Hope Arkansas, with the best
chance east of a line from Many LA to El Dorado Arkansas. Most of
this convection will be diurnally driven and should diminish near
sunset.

By Tuesday, the upper ridge remains anchored over the Southern
Plains with the eastern axis building a bit eastward. Diurnally
driven storms will be possible again across our southern and
eastern zones, generally east of a line from Lufkin TX to El
Dorado Arkansas. Again most of the convection will diminish near
sunset.

Afternoon temperatures on today and tomorrow will continue to
rise into the mid to upper 90s, with some triple digit readings
across portions of East Texas and NW Louisiana. With dewpoints
expected to remain in the low to mid 70s areawide, heat indices
will range from 105-110 degrees. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will
remain in effect through 7 PM Tuesday.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/

By midweek, our main weather maker in the form of an upper ridge of
high pressure, will be centered across NE OK/SE KS but this feature
is forecast to weaken and migrate westward into the Intermountain
West by Thu into Fri. This due in part to a weak trough of low
pressure fcst to move out of the Intermountain West and into the
Central/Southern Plains Thu into Friday. Pops on Wed should be
confined to our southern and eastern most zones along the eastern
flank of the ridge axis but with the ridge getting shunted westward
Thu into Fri, chance pops are warranted across most areas due to a
deeper moisture profile and increased forcing from the effects of
the approaching trough.

The weak disturbance across the NW Gulf of Mexico will be moving
towards the southern La Coast on Sat but at this time, it appears
that troughing will be enough across the Lower Miss Valley to steer
this system east of our region but this will continue to be
monitored over the coming days. The ECMWF remains the most
consistent with this feature regarding its movement but the model
does not do much to intensify this system as it nears the coast.
Troughing across the Southern Plains, Tenn Valley may be significant
enough to backdoor a weak frontal boundary into our region from the
northeast late Sat into Sunday which could help to focus additional
shower and thunderstorm activity across our region. For this reason,
have bumped pops upwards slightly for Sat, especially along and
south of the I-20 Corridor.

Upper ridging is fcst to migrate across the western third of the
country by late weekend into early next week with perhaps a more
significant trough moving through the Central and Southern Plains
which could bring additional rain chances to our region towards the
late extended periods.

Concerning temperatures, it appears that we will have at least one
additional hot day across most of the region on Wed before we lose
at least a couple of degrees during the afternoon due to increased
cloud cover and increasing rain chances. Continued the trend of
bumping up temperature blends for mid to late week concerning high
temperatures, staying closer to blends for the upcoming weekend.

13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1133 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019/

.AVIATION...

Vfr conditions areawide thru most of the period as fog potential
quite low with an increasingly dry ground, along with a lgt
overnight breeze at most locations. With upper ridge building
into area on Monday, trends for lgt daytime winds and little cloud
cover to continue. Brief mvfr cloud cover may affect klfk and
possibly clip ktyr by around 19/12z./07/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  99  78  98  77 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  96  76  97  75 /  30  20  30  10
DEQ  97  76  97  75 /  10  10  10   0
TXK  97  78  97  76 /  20  20  10   0
ELD  96  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  10
TYR 101  77 100  77 /  10  10  10   0
GGG 100  78 100  77 /  10  10  10   0
LFK  97  77  97  76 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

20/13


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