Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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053
FXUS64 KSHV 251247
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
747 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.AVIATION...

For the 25/12Z TAF period, MVFR cigs are affecting most sites this
morning as low stratus streams northward. These cigs will lift to
VFR by late morning into this afternoon. A remnant outflow bndry
shifting into east Texas this morning will continue to generate
spotty light showers across our western terminals. These should be
dissipating later this morning with some additional redevelopment
of isolated convection this afternoon during peak heating hours,
but low confidence precludes any mention in the TAFs at this time.
Otherwise, breezy S/SW winds will prevail today from 8-12 kts with
some higher gusts over our western terminals and diminishing after
26/00Z. Lower cigs will likely return across our east Texas sites
on Tuesday morning prior to the end of this TAF period at 26/12Z.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday/

Large MCS across Oklahoma and Kansas has resulted in an intense
QLCS that extends from the Red River in south central Oklahoma
north into southeast Kansas. Damaging winds continue to be the
primary concern with this linear complex as multiple severe
thunderstorm warnings are active along the line. Severe Watch 217
remains in effect through 8 AM CDT just to the northwest of our
CWA, and do anticipate this convection holding together through
much of this morning with gradual weakening as it enters our far
northwest zones near daybreak. There are some subtle signs of this
already along the southern flank of the line along the Red River
as outflow boundaries begin to outrun the strongest storms along
the along the leading edge of convection. For our forecast today,
have included POPs across roughly our western half with morning
convection gradually waning with time. Some redevelopment can`t be
ruled out, however, as some lingering outflows will still exist
and aided by the very strong heating expected this afternoon as
highs once again climb into the mid 90s. Heat index values will be
similar to the past several days, generally in the 100-104 degree
range still just below heat advisory criteria.

Any lingering afternoon convection will diminish with heating loss
this evening. Temperatures will fall slowly back toward the mid to
upper 70s overnight. Indications are another potential MCS could
evolve overnight to our north and maintain through early Tuesday
morning but have kept POPs out of the forecast over our northern
zones for now as model trends have hinted at convection remaining
just to our north. Another hot and humid day will follow Tuesday
as our soils continue to dry out from continued lack of rainfall.
For this reason, will continue to trend highs a few degrees above
MOS guidance with mid and possibly upper 90s becoming common this
week.

/19/

LONG TERM.../Tuesday Night through Monday/

Much of the extended forecast will have to do with dry and hot
conditions with perhaps a few subtle changes by late next weekend
into early next week with the introduction of small rain chances
again.

By late Tuesday, there will be an expansive ridge of high pressure
anchored across the southern tier of the U.S. from the Pacific
Southwest into the Four Corners Region and eastward across the Lower
Miss Valley into the Southeast U.S. A trough of low pressure across
the Northern Plains will remain too far north to influence our
weather pattern unfortunately Tuesday Night into Wednesday. By
Thursday, the center of this large ridge axis migrates north and
east and should be centered across the Southern Plains and will
continue migrating eastward towards the Tenn and Ohio Valleys by
early Friday while broad troughing regains a foothold across the
western CONUS. By Saturday, the center of this ridge axis migrates
north and east into the Northern Appalachians with a ridge axis noted
as far southwest as the Upper Texas Coast. By late next weekend into
early next week, there is model consensus now that the ridge will be
located far enough to our north and east to allow for an influx of
moisture to move from east to west, underneath the ridge across the
northern Gulf and into our region Sunday into Monday. All this to
say that we will introduce slight chance pops across our eastern
third for Sunday and areawide for Monday as this moisture may be
associated with a weak TUTT Low moving westward from the Northern
Gulf Coast.

Little change to the temperature forecast through the extended
periods as we will continue to remain close to MOS forecast Mins
through the periods but add to the MOS forecast Max temps through
the extended periods.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  77  96  76 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  95  76  96  76 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  93  75  94  74 /  40  10  10   0
TXK  93  77  94  77 /  20  10   0   0
ELD  95  77  95  75 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  95  76  94  77 /  20  10   0   0
GGG  95  76  96  77 /  20  10   0   0
LFK  95  75  95  76 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/13



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