Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 170054
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
654 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

.AVIATION...

For the 17/00Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR flight
categories for much of the period with brief MVFR for parts of
Deep East and East Texas between 17/12Z-17/16Z, North to sites
along Interstate 20 for Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana
near late morning to mid day before clouds lift. VFR ceilings will
originally be 25 kft and after the MVFR lift to near 3.5-5 KFT.
Surface winds will be light and variable to light South less than
7 knots overnight and then South to Southeast 6-12 knots after
17/14Z Saturday. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday night/
Cirrus departing stage right and lots of warm sun has boosted the
mercury for us, with several sites at 70 degrees. That was our upper
air sounding`s suggestion this morning. Oh well, at least we did
update in the right direction early today. The Arctic high 1023mb
just off shore of SE LA. This return flow will make for a warmer
night, but winds will still decouple from a SW LL jet and slack
off keeping us still just under the average of 45 for mid month.
Light fog will be possible at daybreak and even some low clouds
into E TX as moisture returns to the area. The next cold front
will approach the region Saturday night with some light showers
developing by around midnight and on into the morning. /24/

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday Night/
Weak shortwave and associated cold front will be on approach at the
start of the long-term portion of the fcst. Meager moisture return
ahead of this system will keep rain chances on the low end and
thunder unlikely, as the front slowly drifts ewd Sunday through
Monday. Secondary shortwave rounding the base of a synoptic-scale
trof will dive sewd Monday, bringing additional chances for rain as
it finally forces the front s and e of our region. Slow-moving
nature of the cold front will make for a fairly large temp gradient
across the region Sunday, but less so for Monday as the front
becomes more diffuse.

High pressure at the sfc and weak nwly flow aloft will make for a
very seasonable Tuesday before another progressive shortwave pushes
ewd across TX and brings more chances for rain Wednesday/Wednesday
night. Progressive nature of the shortwave looks to carry precip e
of our area for the daytime hours of Thanksgiving day, with
temperatures topping out just slightly above seasonal normals.
/12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  68  50  63 /   0   0   0  30
MLU  41  67  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  37  66  46  53 /   0   0  20  40
TXK  44  66  49  57 /   0   0  10  40
ELD  40  65  47  63 /   0   0  10  40
TYR  46  68  51  56 /   0   0  30  30
GGG  44  69  51  60 /   0   0  10  40
LFK  44  69  52  66 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/24/12


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