Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 140841

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
341 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday Night/
Progressive pattern expected through the short term period ending
Tuesday night. High pressure to shift east today allowing for a
return southerly flow of moisture areawide. A warm front beneath
nearly zonal flow aloft will allow for increased instability
areawide. Impulses within mean flow to contribute to showers and
thunderstorms today, mainly along and south of I-20 early in the
afternoon and shifting north throughout the evening. Temperatures
today to climb into the mid 70s.

Rain chances will extend into the overnight hours and will
increase in coverage and intensity as convergence increases along
and ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the region on
Tuesday night.

In terms of impacts, a marginal risk for severe weather exists
across the I-30 corridor on Tuesday evening and into the overnight
hours ahead of the cold front. However, periods of heavy rainfall
ahead of the cold front could stabilize the atmosphere to the
extent that the severe weather threat could be mitigated. In
terms of rainfall, 2 to 3 inches may be possible across interstate
20 across portions of north Louisiana and southern Arkansas.
However, due to the long duration of the event, no major
widespread flooding concerns are expected. /05/

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday Night/

There is model agreement that the area will be in a west-
northwesterly flow briefly on Wednesday before weak ridging crosses
the area Thursday into Friday. At the surface, GFS/NAM/ECMWF agree
that a cold front will extend from east Texas into northern
Louisiana to start the period, quickly pushing south of the area in
southern Louisiana by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the front
a cooler and drier air mass will be ushered into the area, bringing
abundant sunshine and temps around 10 degrees below normal seasonal
values with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday and
Thursday. The area will stay dry through Thursday and much of Friday
as high pressure moving from the central Plains into the Tennessee
Valley dominates the weather pattern.

Uncertainty enters the forecast for the weekend as the 00Z ECMWF is
resolving a surface low developing across the western Gulf and
moving into southern Louisiana Friday night into Saturday. The
latest GFS/Canadian model runs do not show as strong of a signal of
a low developing in the Gulf and thus would bring a lesser chance of
precipitation and lighter amounts this weekend. Either way, the area
looks to be in the warm sector with an enhanced southerly flow well
ahead an amplified long wave trough across the Rockies with a
vigorous low and frontal system crossing the Plains. With this in
mind, went with a chance of thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

With a more southerly low-level flow, temps will return closer to
normal values on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s across
the area. Continued warm air advection well ahead of the next cold
front will allow for temps to warm further over the weekend with
highs in the lower to mid 80s.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1208 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/


For the 14/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions continue to hold across
our area terminals with cloud cover primarily confined along and
south of the I-20 corridor in East Texas and North Louisiana. Cigs
are expected to gradually lower through the period with low VFR
and eventually MVFR/IFR cigs expected later on Monday as moisture
increases from the SW. In addition, look for showers and possibly
a few thunderstorms to lift northward into the region by late on
Monday morning at LFK and farther northward through the afternoon
at our I-20 sites very near 15/00Z along a retreating warm front.
Winds will maintain an E/SE component through the period with
speeds generally between 5-10 kts.



SHV  76  64  79  57 /  30  80  90  80
MLU  77  65  78  58 /  30  80  90  80
DEQ  76  61  78  50 /  10  60  80  40
TXK  76  62  77  52 /  10  80  90  60
ELD  76  61  75  53 /  10  80  90  60
TYR  74  66  81  55 /  20  70  90  60
GGG  73  64  80  56 /  30  70  90  70
LFK  73  67  82  63 /  60  40  80  80




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