Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 111314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
914 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...Severe Storms Possible Across West Central Florida Today...
...Hazardous Marine Conditions Expected Today...
...High Risk Of Rip Currents Along Area Beaches Through Late Tonight...

Morning 88D returns shows a developing area of thunderstorms over
the northeastern Gulf waters south of Apalachicola early this
morning. As the morning continues expect this area of convection
to consolidate into a line of strong to severe storms (MCS) as it
moves east-southeast and overspreads the forecast area later this
morning and into the afternoon. Most Cam guidance suggests a
linear storm mode and associated cold pooling which should support
strong downdrafts capable of producing damaging wind gusts as the
line of convection approaches and move into and through the
forecast area. In addition, steepening lapse rates and cold
temperatures aloft (-12C at 500mb) via model sounding data
suggests the possibility of large hail with the strongest of
storms as well, and a tornado or two can not be rules out given
modest effective shear expected to be in place. Given the expected
trends the Storm Prediction Center has placed a large portion of
west central Florida in an Enhanced Risk for severe storms today.

Given current and expected trends the Storm Prediction Center has
issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for most of the forecast area
from Sarasota/Highlands counties north including the near shore
waters from Englewood to the Suwannee River out 20nm until 4 PM
EDT this afternoon. In addition to the severe threat increasing
moisture (PW`s approaching 2 inches) combined with a low level
southwesterly flow increasing into the 30-40 knot range and good
upper level divergence, will enhance rainfall rates with hourly
totals exceeding 2 inches possible, especially in areas where the
training of storms occur which may lead to localized flooding of
low lying and poor drainage areas, as well as the ponding of water
on roadways. Will update the forecast shortly to add the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch headlines, otherwise the rest of the forecast
is on track with no other changes planned at this time. Given that
severe weather is expected today, all residents and visitors of
west central Florida should remain alert for rapidly changing
weather conditions through the day, and be ready to take immediate
action when warnings are issued. Remember if threatening weather
approaches your location, move indoor immediately.


Some local MVFR cigs in the 015-025 range will be possible through
15Z, otherwise VFR is expected. A line of strong showers and
thunderstorms will impact the terminals later this morning and
into the afternoon with brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys possible along
with wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH possible. The SHRA/TSRA are
expected to impact KTPA/KPIE/KLAL/KSRQ terminals between 16-19Z
and KPGD/KFMY/KRSW between 18-21Z. VFR should return by 00Z, but
additional MVFR cigs may impact the northern terminals after 03Z,
and after 05Z across the southwestern ones. Southeast to south
winds around 10 knots early this morning will become southwest and
increase to 15 to 20 knots by mid to late morning with gusts up
to 30 knots possible.


Winds will increase ahead of a developing line of showers and
thunderstorms over the northeast Gulf today with advisory level
winds expected. A line of strong thunderstorms expected to move
across the waters through the day with rough boating conditions
expected and possible marine waterspouts. Inexperienced mariners,
especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating
in these hazardous conditions. High pressure will build over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico later tonight into Monday with winds and
seas gradually diminishing and subsiding. Only change at this time
will be to add severe thunderstorm watch number 91 headline to the
near shore waters from Englewood north to the Suwannee River out
20nm in the late morning update, otherwise no other changes are
required at this time.


FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.



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