Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 201829

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
229 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Saturday)...
Upper trough holds in W Atlantic while upper ridging from the
Gulf of Mexico into the Ohio River Valley gets dampened as
the strong S Plains low slowly moves eastward. Weak frontal
boundary at the surface washing out over the Central to
South FL Peninsula tonight and Saturday with high pressure
over the Great Lakes tonight splitting and sliding to the
Carolina Coast Saturday veering low level flow from NE tonight
to SE late tomorrow. Evening NE wind surge for occasionally
gusty winds and pleasant sensible wx condition this evening
into overnight. Models indicate low level moisture to increase
enough to produce low topped diurnal seabreeze showers and
possibly a few storms for the area late Sat. Temps to remain
within a few degrees of seasonal averages.

.Long Term (Saturday Night-Friday)...
A closed upper-level low will move across the deep south this
weekend, with an associated surface low and frontal boundary moving
into the southeast. Rain chances will be on the rise on Sunday along
with rising dew points on a south to southeast wind flow ahead of
the cold front. These features will continue to shift eastward for
Monday, which looks like a cloudy and wet day with rain chances
possible at almost any time. Coverage will likely be highest in the
afternoon away from the immediate coastline as an onshore wind helps
to increase convergence across the interior.

The mid/upper-level low will be slow to clear out on Tuesday, so
conditions will remain on the cloudy side for the first half of the
day, with a few showers still possible. Some relatively dry air will
then move over the region on Wednesday, followed by another dry
frontal boundary on Thursday. Temperatures both days will be fairly
seasonable. The next frontal system looks to approach for the end of
the week into next weekend, with a slight chance for showers.


Front washing out over the FL Peninsula with SCT-BKN 040-050 cloud
deck areawide this afternoon. NE low level flow overnight to produce
MVFR cigs strato cu deck of the Atlantic from around 08Z-12Z.
Conditions improve after 12Z Saturday to VFR.


High pressure continues to build into the region as the front
washes out over the state. NE winds will increase and become
gusty with the tightening gradient and evening surge to build
seas this evening through tonight and into Saturday morning.
Will hoist SCEC headlines over the northern/central waters
tonight. Gradient to relax with seabreeze Saturday afternoon.
High pressure moves into the W Atlantic with winds shifting
SE Sunday. Southern storm system with cold front to move
through the region Mon/Mon Nt with rain chances. High pressure
to build into the region Tue/Wed with W-NW winds and seas.


Low level moisture will continue to increase through the
weekend and into next week with chances of showers and storms.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  68  82  70  83 /  10  40  30  50
FMY  68  87  70  86 /   0  20  20  50
GIF  68  81  69  84 /  20  40  40  60
SRQ  69  78  70  81 /   0  10  20  40
BKV  64  81  68  83 /  10  40  40  50
SPG  69  84  71  84 /   0  20  20  40


Gulf waters...None.


MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.