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000
FXUS62 KTBW 191806
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
206 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Thursday...
A moderately amplified upper level pattern continues over the CONUS
with troughing extending over the west coast and over the western
Atlantic. In between this troughing, ridging extends from the Gulf
of Mexico northward through the central U.S. and will be the
dominant upper feature over the southeast U.S. for the next couple
of days. This ridging will slowly shift eastward by late Thursday
into early Friday with ridging extending over the entire eastern
seaboard.

On the surface, an area of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic
coastline and associated frontal boundary continues to move eastward
into the central Atlantic Ocean. No effects from this system will be
felt here in Florida. Behind this boundary, surface high pressure
extends south along the east coast and into the Gulf of Mexico. This
will keep a predominant northeast through east wind flow through the
period. Daily showers and storms will form over the inland areas and
move westward through the afternoon. Daytime highs will be well
above average with highs in the low to mid 90`s region wide with
heat indices reaching 100-105 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night - Wednesday)...
Upper ridging aloft over the Deep South moves into the W Atlantic as
a weak TUTT slides over S FL Saturday. W Atlantic upper ridge nudges
back over the area while TUTT moves further westward into the Gulf
of Mexico Sun/Mon. Models bring upper troughiness into the Central
U.S. mid next week.

Surface high pressure axis down the Eastern Seaboard stretches back
across the SE U.S. and N Gulf Coast region into the weekend then
some models differences early next week with an old frontal boundary
feature in W Atlantic. Expect generally easterly steering flow with
limited afternoon sea breezes producing isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms and continued warm temps daily.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD-SCT TSRA on seabreeze boundaries early this afternoon to push
inland to keep VCTS at coastal sites next few hours into LAL early
evening. VSBY and cigs reduced around convection and gusty winds
possible. VFR conditions return all areas tonight with light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the area producing light winds 10 knots
or less and seas around 1 foot through the end of the week. Winds
will be on the slight increase by Friday and into the weekend with
easterly winds in the 10-15 knot range possible. With that being
said, the only real marine concerns will be higher winds and seas in
the vicinity of showers and storms that move over the coastal
waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant atmospheric moisture will keep high humidity levels and
scattered rain showers and storms across the area for the next
several days which will preclude any fire weather concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  79  93  77  91 /  10  60  30  30
FMY  77  93  76  90 /  10  70  40  50
GIF  76  93  75  90 /  30  60  20  20
SRQ  78  91  76  89 /  10  40  50  40
BKV  75  93  75  91 /  10  70  30  30
SPG  79  93  78  90 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis