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000
FXUS62 KTBW 261156
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
756 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 756 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

A frontal boundary continues to ease south and weaken and is now
across south FL. High pressure will build in today...from the
northeast...with some drying air and begin a transition to
northeasterly flow. However...the southern half of the area
remains in deep moisture with model PWAT values around 2 inches.
This will support scattered-widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the south while the north can expected isolated
to scattered showers/storms. Temperatures will reach the 90s with
the heat index in the lower 100s. Forecasts look good but will
updated as needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 756 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Have opted to maintain VFR with VCSH that shifts to VCTS in a
18-03Z window...with TSRA/CB near the end. MVFR/LCL IFR may be
PSBL and will re-evaluate with the 18Z TAFs. Light winds become
NE Then NW at most coastal terminals in the afternoon. Winds
diminish and shift to E overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 756 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Winds/seas for the most part are 15 knots/3 feet or less. However
a few nocturnal surges may bring winds up to 20 knots. High
pressure begins to builds in with a prevailing northeast flow
that gradually becomes east then southeast during the rest of the
week. However an onshore shifts will occur in afternoon sea
breezes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  76  91  76 /  50  30  60  30
FMY  90  75  92  75 /  80  50  70  20
GIF  92  75  93  74 /  60  30  60  10
SRQ  91  74  91  74 /  70  50  60  30
BKV  92  73  93  72 /  40  20  50  20
SPG  91  78  90  79 /  60  40  60  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 2

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Rude
DECISION SUPPORT....Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close