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000
FXUS62 KTBW 221138
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
638 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail during the next 24 hours with broken to
overcast cigs in the 040-050 range developing after 15Z.
Northeast to east winds at 6 to 9 knots early this morning
will become east-southeast at 10 to 15 knots with higher
gusts after 15Z, then diminishing to around 10 knots after
00Z tonight.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 317 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Aloft: Ridging from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the upper
Great Lakes slides across the eastern seaboard today and
tonight then continues out over the Atlantic Wednesday. A
short wave trough over the eastern Great Basin this morning
tracks east and evolves into a long wave trough from the
Upper Midwest to the TX coast. Surface:
High pressure down the eastern U.S. and into the Gulf of
Mexico shifts out over the Atlantic tonight and moves east
Wed...while reaching back across the eastern half of the
Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure center with a trailing cold
accompanies the upper level trough...with the low across
the Great Lakes and the front down into the western half of
the Gulf by Wed afternoon.

A dry and cool air mass this morning will slowly warm and
moisten as the lower level flow shifts from northeast
through the southeast to southerly by Wed afternoon. But
moisture will be limited which along with the upper level
ridge passing overhead will preclude any rainfall. But there
will be enough moisture to provide some occasionaly
cloudiness. Temperatures just below normal this morning
increase to normal for the afternoon then above normal Wed.

For Wed night-Mon: The upper trough noted above settles into
the eastern half of the nation and resides there for most
of the period. A series of short wave troughs rotate through
the main trough...propelling a couple of fronts through the
area. The first moves across Wed night-Thu and the second
on Sun...with showers likely and a few possible
thunderstorms. Both fronts will be followed by high pressure
with cooler and drier air.


MARINE...
High pressure across the Gulf from the eastern U.S. slides
off to the east when a cold front approaches Wed night and
traverses the state Thu with high rain chances and a few
possible storms. High pressure builds back into the Gulf
Fri-Sat. East winds in the 15 to occasionally 20 knot range
today begin to veer and increase tonight with some gusts of
30 to 35 knots in the vicinity of the front.

FIRE WEATHER...
High dispersion values are expected for the next couple of
days due to robust 20 foot and transport winds. High
pressure with stable and dry air moves out by Wed night as a
cold front approaches then traverses the area Thu with high
rain chances and a few possible storms. High pressure
follows the front for Fri-Sat with cool stable dry air.
However no low RH concerns area expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  74  59  79  67 /   0   0  10  70
FMY  75  59  80  70 /   0   0   0  40
GIF  74  57  79  68 /   0   0  10  50
SRQ  73  59  77  68 /   0   0  10  60
BKV  73  54  81  66 /   0   0  10  70
SPG  72  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57/McMichael
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude