139
FXUS62 KTBW 160021
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
821 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Invest 93L has made landfall and will continue to make its way west
across N FL into tonight. The system seems to be deteriorating fast,
and the NHC has the chance for development at 40% as it moves into
the warm Gulf waters. Current thunderstorm activity is quieting down
with most activity starting to break apart.

The flood watch that was in place this evening until 11pm has been
canceled due to the decreasing flood threat.

The main concern into Wednesday will be excessive rain with chances
for flash flooding. The WPC has put the majority of the area in a
Marginal Risk of excessive rain for tomorrow due to the slow moving
sea breeze. By later this week we should be shifting back to our
summertime pattern with higher temps and afternoon sea breeze
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
SHRA/TSRA weakening and dissipating ATTM areawide with clearing
and light SE winds by 02Z for VRF conditions overnight. Wed expect
mainly afternoon seabreeze winds and TSRA aft 16-18Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Invest 93 continues to move onto the east coast of FL and will
continue its journey west across FL today and tonight.  NHC has
given the system a 40% chance of development once it moves into the
Gulf over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, main
concern the next couple of days will be rainfall. The Weather
Prediction Center has tagged most of the forecast area with a Slight
Risk (at least 15%) of excessive rainfall. Meaning some areas may
get multiple rounds of rain, increasing the risk of flash flooding.
A flood watch is in place till 11pm this evening, because of the
expected rainfall. Though conditions are currently quiet, rain and
storms are still expected to fill in this afternoon into the
evening. Some storms could have strong, gusty winds and frequent
lightning. As always, be sure to have multiple ways to receive
weather warnings.

Unsettled conditions continue for the next couple of days as the
system makes its way into the Gulf. Towards the weekend we shift
back to a more typical summertime pattern as southeasterly flow
settles back in. Temperatures heat back up by the end of the
week with the later afternoon shower and storm coverage expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate for the next couple
of days as Invest 93 moves over FL into the Gulf. Winds will begin
to increase this evening and stay elevated. Winds finally start to
subside Friday into the weekend as the low pressure system moves
further away from the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Plenty of moisture over the area will keep fire weather hazards
low. Only concern will be high dispersions Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  78  92 /  60  80  40  80
FMY  76  91  76  93 /  50  70  40  80
GIF  74  92  76  93 /  40  80  20  80
SRQ  76  91  75  92 /  60  70  50  80
BKV  71  92  72  92 /  60  80  40  80
SPG  77  88  78  90 /  60  70  50  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Delgado
AVIATION...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery