401
FXUS62 KTBW 140122
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
822 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low potential for dense sea fog again tonight into early Saturday
  morning.

- Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms possible across the area
  associated with a cold front late Sunday into Monday.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Fog has been the primary weather hazard this evening. After covering
nearly all coastal waters most of the day, the slightly drier
airmass has mixed much of the fog out, with one exception: SWFL. Fog
has remained prevalent in this region in close proximity to a
stationary boundary. The question is whether or not this fog will
persist through the night with the ENE flow settling in. It does
appear to be dissipating, but there are competing forces that make
it tougher to discern. Given current impacts, a dense fog advisory
was issued for coastal SWFL and adjacent coastal waters. Additional
radiation fog could also develop towards morning with favorable
conditions in place.

The forecast has been updated a couple times to reflect current
trends in fog development and dissipation. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

A weak stationary frontal boundary remains stretched across south
Florida and into the eastern Gulf. Dense fog forming in the vicinity
of this front has been the main impact over the past couple of days.
This front pushes a bit south overnight as high pressure over the
mid-Atlantic states ridges southwest over Florida and into the Gulf.
This will produce a more northeast through southeast wind flow over
the region tonight and on Saturday. The latest model guidance for
fog does not show any significant development overnight tonight into
Saturday morning, but as always, fog can be very tricky and will be
closely monitored overnight. If any low clouds or fog do develop, it
will likely stay along the west coast and move offshore with the
predominant northeast through southeast wind flow. A pleasant and
warm day is expected during the day on Saturday with above average
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.

By Saturday evening, high pressure has moved off the Carolina
coastline and will keep a southeast wind flow over the region.
Farther to the west, the next big weather system will start to take
shape. An area of low pressure will develop near the OK/TX border
with a cold front extending south through eastern Texas. This
weather system will traverse eastward through the southeast U.S. on
Sunday into Monday. Preceding showers and storms ahead of the front
will move into the eastern Gulf starting Sunday morning and will
increase in coverage through the day on Sunday into Monday. SPC has
placed parts of west central and southwest Florida in a Marginal
Risk for severe storms with possible damaging winds ahead of and in
the vicinity of this frontal passage. The cold front will push south
and east of Florida by Monday evening as high pressure ridges in
from the north bringing clearing conditions. The good news is that a
cool down is not expected behind this front with average to slightly
above average temperatures continuing. High pressure will dominate
the weather for Tuesday through the end of next week with rain-free
and warm conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 821 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Fog is a concern for SWFL terminals where some sea fog has moved
onshore. This should dissipate through the night, but light winds,
clear skies, and calm winds could favor some additional development
near inland and SWFL terminals towards sunrise. Otherwise, VFR
should prevail through the period with light winds prevailing. Some
fog could come back into play late tomorrow and additional impacts
will be possible later on Sunday as a cold front moves into the
region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 118 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Dense fog has lingered over the Gulf waters most of the day, but is
slowly burning off and lifting. The latest model guidance is showing
a lower chance of development tonight into Saturday morning and if
any does develop, the northeast winds should keep it mostly away
from the coastal regions. As always, this will be closely monitored
through the day and overnight. Otherwise, light winds 10 knots or
less and seas 2 feet or less will remain over the eastern Gulf
waters through late Saturday evening. A slight uptick in winds and
seas expected early Sunday morning to around 10-15 knots and seas
building 2-3 feet. By late morning on Sunday, conditions begin to
deteriorate more as a strong cold front approaches the eastern Gulf
waters from the west. Hazardous winds and seas expected through the
day on Sunday and into early Monday as this front moves through the
area, with a Small Craft Advisory likely needed. There is also a
Marginal Risk for severe storms with damaging winds possible with
frontal passage. The front moves east of Florida by late Monday
evening, with clearing conditions and improving marine conditions
expected. High pressure will dominate the weather for the remainder
of next week with rain-free conditions, winds 10 knots or less and
seas 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Rain-free and warm conditions with RH values above critical levels
expected through Saturday. A cold front then moves through the area
on Sunday into Monday producing scattered showers and isolated
storms. High pressure builds back late Monday and dominates the
weather most of next week with rain-free, warm conditions, light
winds and RH values above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  55  80  62  79 /   0   0   0  30
FMY  56  82  60  81 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  54  80  61  83 /   0  10   0  30
SRQ  54  79  60  77 /   0   0   0  20
BKV  46  81  55  82 /   0   0   0  40
SPG  60  77  64  76 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Lee.

Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Anderson
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Anderson