000
FXUS63 KOAX 221131
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
631 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

The main forecast issues are in regards to the chance for showers
and thunderstorms for Sunday and beyond (Sunday night/Monday).

A closed mid tropospheric low was near St. Louis early this
morning, which will track east/northeast today. That feature was
wrapping some moisture back westward into our area, so will keep
some possibility of light rain in the forecast for this morning.
That will be spotty, with mostly just trace amounts expected.
Skies should be cloudy or mostly cloudy today, except portions of
northeast NE may see a bit more sunshine.

Energy aloft to the west and northwest will get a bit better
organized today, and should move close enough for a chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorms in the western parts of the
forecast area later tonight. A stronger system should start to
close off over western MT by 12Z Saturday, track to southern WY by
12Z Sunday, then to the NE panhandle by 12Z Monday. Will keep a
chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Saturday
into Sunday.

Temperatures should be mainly in the mid or upper 70s today, upper
70s or lower 80s Saturday and in the 80s Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Sunday night into Monday looks very active with potential for
thunderstorms and heavy rain. The SPC Day 3 outlook has a slight
risk into parts of our area. It appears that a significant piece
of energy will lift northeast through the region Sunday night,
with decent lift and precipitable water values as high as 2.20
inches. There should be some severe threat but excessive rain may
be even more of an issue. 24 hour rain amounts (Sunday night
through Monday) of 1 to 3 inches appear possible based on the 00Z
GFS, with amounts over 4 inches not out of the question.

Rain chances start to decrease Monday night into Tuesday as the
previously mentioned closed low over the NE panhandle early Monday
tracks northeast across MN Tuesday.

Later in the week, precipitation chances are not quite as high. A
broad 500 mb ridge should build over the southern US mid to late
week as a trough tracks into the western US. Temperatures will
turn very warm/hot again with highs 85 to 95 and lows from the mid
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

MVFR clouds will linger across the region through much of the
day. Ceilings will eventually lift to VFR levels around 21Z at
KOFK and KOMA, but could persist until 06Z at KLNK. Winds will
generally be out of the north/northeast this morning and veer to
the east and eventually southeast by tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...KG