Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 111207

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
707 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Main forecast concerns are in regards to lingering precipitation
chances for today, then temperatures the next few days.

A short wave trough/weak closed low continued to drop southeast
toward northeast KS this morning. 12 hour height falls with this
feature have been around 50 meters. There was a 300 mb jet max of
around 120 knots over southwest KS last evening on the southwest
side of the feature. Precipitation has been mostly associated
with deformation zone, and that trend should continue this
morning. Another weak vort max was noted near the ND/SD/MN border
early this morning and was dropping south. First closed low will
move away from the area this morning, with precipitation coverage
decreasing. Moisture depth is forecast to be decreasing with time
as well, so chances for measurable precipitation drop off
dramatically after mid morning. However some light freezing
drizzle/flurries/sprinkles could linger longer than that as the
second but much weaker closed low moves down into western IA.
Recent HRRR and RAP13 output suggests isolated trace amounts could
occur over parts of the area into the afternoon. Cloud cover and
north winds will help hold temperatures down today. Surface
pattern currently features an inverted trough from MO back
north/northwest into our area but that will weaken/dissipate as
high pressure over the Dakotas builds southeast. Look for highs
in the mid 30s to around 40 north with lower and mid 40s south.

Tonight, clouds will be decreasing from northwest to southeast and
for now we have a dry forecast as moisture depth continues to
decrease. Areas that clouds scatter out first should drop into the
upper teens, with lows mainly 20 to 25 in southwest IA and most of
southeast NE.

Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy Monday with north winds and
highs in the 40s to near 50. Surface ridge maintains influence
over the area with dry weather from Monday night into Tuesday.
Lows will be in the upper teens and lower 20s Monday night. Winds
continue from the north Tuesday. We expect highs in the upper 30s
to lower 40s north, lower to mid 40s south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

A mid tropospheric ridge will be building into the area from the
west from Tuesday night through Thursday. At the same time, cool
high pressure initially over the area will move southeast, while
low pressure develops to the west. The lower atmosphere will be
warming with southerly flow. Expect highs in the 50s to lower 60s
Wednesday, then 60s to lower 70s Thursday. Fire danger may be
increasing on those two days, and will be monitoring. A weak front
should cool things off a bit for Thursday night and Friday with
some chance of light rain.

Model solutions for next weekend vary, and for now will stay with
a general blend of guidance. It does look potentially more active
with southwest mid level flow and disturbances moving out into
the Plains. The operational 00z GFS appears to be too strong with
a system moving into our area Sunday, so will generally downplay
its solution for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

IFR cigs are expected to prevail through at least 18Z as bands of
light snow diminish and end by mid morning as closed upper low
over northwest Missouri moves off to the southeast. Satellite
shows extensive area of MVFR cigs upstream and this cloud layer
should remain over the area through 00Z before improving to VFR
between 00Z and 06Z. Gusty north winds 25 to 30kts are also likely
through 18Z.




LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Fobert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.