526
FXUS63 KOAX 062341
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
641 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily storm chances (20-50%) continue tonight and persist
  through the week. Repeated rounds of rainfall could lead to
  localized flooding concerns.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible Monday across
  eastern NE and Tuesday across southeast NE and southwest IA.

- Expect relatively cooler weather by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The latest 500 mb analysis shows large-scale troughing over the
central United States and a weak trough reflected at the
surface. An MCS to surviving longer than anticipated and moving
into eastern Nebraska. A few strong to severe storms are
possible next couple hours. Short-term convective allowing
models show a rapid decrease in coverage and intensity of these
storms and overall MCS by early evening. Another MCS may move
out of the Nebraska panhandle this evening and move into the
western CWA. It too though is expected to weaken dramatically as
it moves into eastern Nebraska.

For tonight expect quiet weather as weak ridging takes the place
of the exiting trough. By Monday afternoon another round of
storms may form as lee troughing develops over the central
Plains. At present the strongest storms are expected in western
Nebraska but will propagate into the far western portions of our
County Warning Area. To the east, shear and instability
parameters are not as robust which should allow storms to weaken
as they progress east Monday evening. With these storms the
damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards,
though a brief tornado can`t be ruled out. The SPC currently
includes much of eastern NE and west-central IA in a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather with a slight risk (level
2 of 5) for northeast Nebraska.

Longer term (Tuesday into next weekend)...Expect an active
weather pattern to continue as a series of shortwaves translate
through the forecast area. This allows for precipitation chances
most days. Temperatures will be cooler for next weekend as a
strong low pressure system passes to our north, brining
relatively cooler air with it.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR conditions favored for much of the period with passing mid-
level clouds overnight and light northeasterly winds becoming
more easterly to southeasterly. That said, still need to keep an
eye on storm chances in the afternoon, with latest guidance
suggesting OMA and LNK could see something around 16-20Z
(30-40% chance). Higher storm chances look to hold off until
after 00Z with a line of storms moving in from the northwest.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pearson
AVIATION...CA