000
FXUS63 KOAX 200428
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1128 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

The potential for severe weather has diminished slightly for our
area today, as a cold front dropped further south toward northern
Kansas, leaving much of the CWA in cool, cloudy conditions.
Temperatures struggled to reach the mid 50s north of Interstate 80
this afternoon, while highs managed to reach the mid to upper 70s
near the southern Iowa and Nebraska borders. Surface winds generally
remained out of the north through the afternoon. Showers, associated
with a low pressure system in southwest Nebraska, will continue to
drift north through northeast Nebraska as drier air fills into parts
of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Skies began to clear this afternoon over the far southeastern corner
of the forecast area, aiding in the destabilization of the
atmosphere. Effective Bulk Shear was around 40-50kts near the
KS/NE border at 2pm, and both low and mid level lapse rates were
around 6-7 C/km. Expect storms will begin to fire in northeast
Kansas around 4pm this afternoon and drift northeast. A severe
storm or two could potentially graze extreme southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa late this afternoon and evening, where the
airmass is slightly more potent, but the chance for widespread
severe weather within our forecast area looks low at this time. If
a stray storm or two were to reach the southeast corner of the
CWA, the primary threat would still be large hail, with some
potential for damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado.

Lingering showers will likely persist through Sunday morning and
into the afternoon as the low pressure system ejects northeast
through northeast Nebraska. Temperatures will remain cool tomorrow,
generally around 60 degrees, save for far southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa where it could creep closer to 70. Lows Sunday night
will dip into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Expect showers will
finally clear out of western Iowa by early Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Dry conditions are expected Monday with highs warming back into the
mid 70s.  Temperatures will continue to warm through much of next
week with highs generally topping out in the mid 80s.  Several upper
level disturbances will ripple through the region next week,
bringing multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

An initial wave of scattered showers is presently spreading east
of the MO River with the next round of showers located over
south-central NE. Latest convection-allowing model guidance takes
that activity northeast, affecting KLNK and KOMA in the 08z-011z
time frame. The ceiling at KOMA has fluctuated between MVFR and
VFR, but it appears that prevailing MVFR conditions will
materialize by about 09z. MVFR to IFR ceilings will persist at
KLNK and KOFK. Winds will remain north at generally less than 10
kt.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...Mead