062
FXUS63 KOAX 170242
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
942 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and mostly dry weather prevails through Saturday. Highs
  will range from the mid 70s to the upper 80s.

- Increased chances for thunderstorms beginning early Sunday
  and lasting into Tuesday. Severe weather will be possible at
  times, especially Sunday evening and Monday.

- The repeated rounds of storms may bring a threat of flash
  flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A nice, quiet afternoon was shaping up across the region with
temperatures as of 2 PM in the mid to upper 70s. A shortwave
trough was sliding through, but was bringing nothing more than a
few clouds with surface high pressure dominating.

Friday looks to remain dry, but warmer and a touch breezier as
surface high pressure pushes east and low pressure builds in to the
northwest, giving us strengthening southerly low level flow. Mixing
should be plentiful with said winds and little to no cloud cover, so
wouldn`t be surprised to see temperatures overachieve a bit.
Guidance currently has the area firmly in the 80s, warmest in
northeast NE, but could easily see a few spots making a run at 90
degrees. Saturday also looks rather pleasant, though maybe a touch
breezy again, with a small chance (10-15%) for some sprinkles as a
cold front slides through during the day. Model soundings do show a
fairly stout low level dry layer, though, which should prevent much
from reaching the ground. Despite the front, still expect
temperatures to top out in the mid 70s and 80s, though frontal
passage timing will play a large role in exactly who sees 70s vs.
80s.

The front looks to stall in or just southeast of the area by
Saturday evening and then start working back northward on Sunday.
Meanwhile, some shortwave energy will slide through Saturday night
into Sunday, interacting with the front and bringing us shower and
thunderstorm chances through much of the day Sunday. By Sunday
afternoon/evening, low level moisture transport will really start to
strengthen ahead of an organizing surface low over eastern CO. This
could lead to some stronger/severe storm development, but lots of
questions remain on frontal placement and instability across our
area owing to the expected daytime showers and storms, so confidence
on a severe weather threat in our area is rather low.

A similar low-confidence severe weather scenario sets up for Monday
with the front remaining in the area while a larger scale trough
begins to approach the area and a surface low ejects into KS by
Monday evening. Looks like there would be plenty of shear and
instability for organized severe weather, but model soundings (for
what they`re worth this far out) suggest a fairly stout cap will be
in place which may be reinforced by lingering showers and storms
during the day Monday. Should be plenty of forcing with the
aforementioned trough/low, but storms may end up elevated. A cold
front will then slide through on Tuesday leading to continued shower
and storm chances. So bottom line, there will be chances for severe
weather in the area from Sunday evening through possibly Tuesday,
but confidence is low in the details. The hazard we`re most
confident in right now would be flooding, simply due to the
potential for repeated rounds of storms, but other hazards will be
possible at times.

We should see a break in the precip toward the middle of next week,
but looking ahead, ensembles are in decent agreement that another
system moves through by Thursday/Friday. Otherwise, temperatures
will remain pretty seasonable with highs mostly in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected with mostly clear skies throughout
the period and light southerly winds becoming southwesterly
Friday morning. Gusts will increase to near 25 kts by Friday
afternoon. A few passing mid and high clouds are possible Friday
afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Kern