Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 210852
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
352 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Today into Tuesday:

A vigorous mid/upper-level low pressure system continues to slowly
slide northeast over southeast SD/northeast Nebraska. Much of the
forecast area remains in the dry slot early this morning but as
the system continues to push into northwest Iowa this afternoon,
scattered wrap around precipitation is expected across much of
our northern counties. A few rumbles of thunder are possible with
an area of steep mid-level lapse rates moving overhead for a few
hours this morning. The main concern with this slowly departing
system will be strong/gusty northwesterly winds behind a surface
cold front that is forecast to surge southeast through the
forecast area later this morning. A few gusts of 45-55mph are
possible later this afternoon and through the evening. Have
hoisted a wind advisory for much of the northern CWA and it is a
long-duration advisory. Although winds may diminish slightly
overnight, they will still remain near or above advisory criteria
through Tuesday morning. In coordination with surrounding offices,
did keep the advisory going overnight with an expiration of noon
Tuesday. Some uncertainty remains on how far south to take the
advisory, and this may need to be modified by later shifts, but we
feel we have the bulk of the highest gusts covered in the current
advisory. Showers should end across our northeastern counties
later this evening as they system pushes east into Wisconsin. High
temperatures will range from upper 40s north to mid 50s south but
will feel quite blustery compared to recent warmer days. Lows
tonight are forecast in the mid to upper 30s but factoring in the winds,
wind chill values will fall to the upper 20s to lower 30s
overnight. Gusty northwest winds should begin to diminish Tuesday
afternoon with highs approaching the mid to upper 50s.

Tuesday night through Thursday:
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move southeast into the
Dakotas Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will send a weak
surface low southeast from the central Dakotas into southern Iowa
Wednesday. Some light precipitation is possible across our
northern and far eastern counties Wednesday near this low. Cooler
temperatures will follow this system into Thursday with highs
maxing out in the upper 40s to around 50 as a large area of
surface high pressure moves overhead.

Friday through Sunday:

Period looks to remain dry with a split-flow pattern aloft. The main
area of precipitation should remain to our south across Kansas and
Missouri. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s on Saturday
followed by cooler readings Sunday into Monday behind a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Precipitation had moved east of the TAF sites as of 1130 pm and
MVFR or lower conditions have pushed into southwest IA. A brief
period of MVFR ceilings is possible at KOMA overnight. Otherwise
all 3 sites should be VFR until clouds wrap in from the west or
northwest late tonight and drop into the MVFR category. Spotty
showers will be possible Monday, mainly at KOFK and possibly KOMA.
Winds may gust to over 35 mph, mainly at KOFK and KLNK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon CDT Tuesday for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045.

IA...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon CDT Tuesday for
     IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Miller


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