Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 260455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 832 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Updated the forecast to increase PoPs over much of southern
Illinois and the Purchase Area this evening. Showers have become
numerous and will likely end up just an area of rain as they use
up very meager instability in this area. We are still awaiting the
main area of mainly light showers with the upper low which should
begin to overspread southeast Missouri in the next few hours.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Southern branch mid/upper level low pressure system will track
southeast from KS into AR/nrn MS and AL during the next 24 hours
or so. This will bring another round light rains, though much
lighter than the last ones, to portions of the forecast region
tonight. Highest rain chances will be closer/just north of the
upper low and mid lvl forcing/difluence region, which will remain
south of us. Still could see some one quarter to one half inch
rain totals over southern portions of se MO and wrn KY...closer to
the AR/TN borders. Most of the measurable rain will be exiting
our s/sern counties Thu morning, but some very light precip might
linger around the srn Pennyrile of western KY into Thu afternoon.

After a weak (and most likely dry) frontal passage Thursday night,
looking high and dry as we heading through Friday. Not much in the
way of cold air behind this front, however, as sfc high pressure
will be of Pacific origin. Therefore, as long as we can return to
some sunshine, most locations should jump back into the upper 60s
to lower 70s Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Dry weather and pleasant temperatures are expected this weekend into
early next week, courtesy of a reversal of the eastern
trough/western ridge pattern. Ensemble means of the global models
continue to displace the eastern N. America trough this weekend. A
deep-layer ridge is forecast to reside over the southeastern states
early next week.

Over the weekend, a Canadian surface high will move southeast from
the northern Plains to the middle/upper Ohio Valley. There are even
some indications that a weak backdoor cold front will precede this
high on Saturday. This high will temper the warmup a bit this
weekend. Highs are forecast to be around 70 Saturday and the lower
70s on Sunday. The main impact of the Canadian high will be chilly
temps on Saturday night, with lows in the lower to mid 40s. Some
upper 30s still seem plausible Sat night given the dry air and
the position of the surface high nearly overhead.

Early next week, deep-layer ridging from the surface to 500 mb will
become quasi-stationary over the southeastern states. This blocking
high will pump warmer and slightly more humid air into our region on
strengthening southwest winds. Daytime highs will likely touch 80 in
many areas by Tuesday. Overnight lows will moderate into the 50s.


Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The majority of recent guidance is trending farther southwest and
south with tangible precipitation and MVFR ceilings associated
with the upper low moving through Arkansas and into Tennessee
overnight into Thursday. Therefore, have gone on the optimistic
side and kept KCGI and KPAH VFR with just a VCSH. KCGI would be
the most likely to see a period of MVFR ceilings, but confidence
is too low to mention it at this time. KEVV and KOWB being farther
from the upper low will remain firmly in VFR territory throughout
this forecast cycle.




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