Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 251122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
722 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Dry weather is expected through tonight under the influence of
high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. Low pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico will gradually bring a return of moisture through
the upcoming weekend, mainly in the form of late afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms.


As of 720 AM EDT Friday...

Latest analysis reveals ~1022+ surface high pressure now in
place along and offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. Old frontal
boundary in the process of washing out from SC into the deep
south this morning.

Slightly warmer today, as thicknesses increase slightly on
light S-SW w/ the surface high shifting further offshore.
CONShort...MOS and local thickness tool in good agreement
supporting highs into the mid to upper 80s (upr 70s/low
immediate coast).

Mainly clear once again tonight. Some patchy fog once again
possible along the SE coastal plain late. Otherwise, slightly
milder and a bit more muggy. Lows mainly in the 60s.


As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Outlook for the weekend will key on disturbance near the
Yucatan/Western Caribbean. Models continue to have issues with
respect to timing the upper trough digging south from the
western Great lakes toward the western Gulf of Mexico, and the
resultant ejecting surface wave into the eastern Gulf on
Sunday. However, regardless of the fine details, weak upper
ridging aloft and southerly low-level flow will gradually
integrate more moisture back toward the region, as numerous
shortwaves shunt the deep tropical moisture feed over the West
Caribbean north across the deep south and toward the local area.
PW values increase to 1.75-2" once again over the piedmont into
the Delmarva Saturday night/Sunday. This will result in a
gradual increase in humidity locally through the day Saturday,
due to sustained southerly flow from the GOMEX, and a mainly
diurnal chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and
Sunday. Still a few model cycles away from getting details
hammered out, but given the heavy rainfall of only 5 to 7 days
ago, will need to be on guard for locally heavy rainfall
potential during this period, especially over the northern half
of the area with a quasi-stationary boundary lingering just to
the north.

Not quite as warm but noticeably more humid each day over the
weekend. Highs Sat/Sun in the mid 80s, except slightly cooler
immediate coast. Lows from the mid 60s to low 70s.


As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Still much uncertainty with both the track and amount of
moisture associated with any tropical system from the end of the
Holiday weekend into the middle of next week. Both the
GFS/ECMWF stall the system over the Gulf coast states but differ
on the amount of moisture making it this far north. 00z
ECMWF/ECS keeps the deepest moisture south/southeast, due to
retrograding the upper low over the TN Valley. Meanwhile the 00z
GFS shows periodic Atlantic and tropical moisture drifting
north along a stalled boundary across the region.

Upshot will be to keep pops in each day, highest across the south
and thunder chances mainly during the aftn/eve Mon/Tue. Pops
cont Wed/Thu as the tropical moisture gets caught in the
westerlies and tracks ENE. Highs upr 70s-mid 80s. Lows mid 60s-
lwr 70s.


As of 720 AM EDT Friday...

Mainly clear sky across area terminals, with VFR conditions
anticipated through the 12Z TAF period on light S-SW winds.
Some patchy fog (MVFR VSBY) is possible once again SE terminals
late tonight.

OUTLOOK...Expect moisture to increase for the upcoming holiday
weekend with scattered showers/t-storms possible each
afternoon/evening from Sat-Mon. Periodic flight restrictions
will be possible in/around tstms.


As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered just off the coast.
The high slides farther offshore today, allowing for southerly flow
to develop, mainly 10-15 kt, with 1-2 ft waves/seas. Similar pattern
into the weekend with high pressure offshore. Seas build up to 3-4
ft by Sat/Sat night as sly flow continues. Wind speeds aob 15 kt
through this period. Sub-SCA conditions continue into early next


As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Flood warning for the Appomattox at Mattoax has been cancelled,
as have river flood warnings on the Mattaponi and Kerr Lake.
Despite a few scattered road closures that remain per VDOT,
river Levels have dropped below flood stage.

A flood warning remains in effect for the Nottoway River at
Sebrell as the river will crest just above minor stage this
evening or tonight. See FLWAKQ and FLSAKQ for more details.


Levels should reach action stage at Bishops Head Friday night
due to the south channeling.


As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

* RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/23 is 10.25" which now
  ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record
  of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880).

* SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/23 is 8.63" which
  already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38"
  in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906).




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