Area Forecast Discussion
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413 FXUS61 KPBZ 230517 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 117 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Building high pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the weekend. Low pressure passing well south of the region could bring a rain or snow shower to the southern border of the forecast area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... No changes to the overnight period. A weak shortwave will dig southeastward over eastern portions of the forecast area. This wave is rotating around a 500mb low that is drifting southeastward over portions of New York and New England. This will provide a period of weak cold air advection today, which should at least produce sct-bkn cu later this morning and through the afternoon. Temperatures will remain well below normal for mid March. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models continue to trend southward with Saturday-Saturday night low pressure. Have lowered PoPs even further over my southern border. With rising heights behind exiting 500mb low, Saturday looks like a descent day across most of the FA, with just high cirrus clouds and some temperature moderation. Upper level heights continue to slowly rise on Sunday, and following some morning clouds, sunshine should make a return. Temperatures will still remain cool for mid March. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather will continue with an upper ridge building locally. Influence of the next low pressure system will begin to be noticed by Tuesday with precipitation well in advance of the low itself. While it is likely that a cold front will move through sometime between Tuesday and Thursday, confidence on timing wasn`t high enough to include likely pops at any time in the forecast so far. A warming trend is expected through the extended forecast, with temperatures finally returning to normal by Tuesday and continuing to warm into the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... General VFR conditions are expected through the period. Non- restrictive sct-bkn cu is expected to develop today. MVFR cigs are possible late in the forecast period at FKL and DUJ as colder air aloft will move across Lake Erie. Wind gusts should increase late this morning and continue through the afternoon, as a well mixed atmosphere will allow the stronger winds aloft to make it to the surface. Gusts of 15 to 20kts are possible at all ports. Winds will decrease around sunset. OUTLOOK... Some restrictions, mainly to ceilings, are possible south of PIT on Saturday as a system passes to our south. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.