Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 061941 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 341 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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A crossing front will usher in colder weather and periodic precipitation for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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No changes were needed for the eve update as temperature moderation toward average values is underway via warm, moist advection on swly flow ahead of an encroaching cold front. This will also increase precipitation chance to categorical numbers from west to east, generally after 9 PM this evening with the progression of the cold front. Poor lapse rates and unfavorable timing should hamper instability as the cold front crosses, thus no thunder is anticipated.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Showers should be ongoing early Friday as the cold front continues its trek across the forecast area, with sfc nwly flow reinforcing cooler air in its wake. As such, sub-average temperature is expected once more, with daytime high temperature in the low to mid 50s. As the cold front departs, cold upper troughing with embedded shortwave activity may support lingering showers and isolated tstms through the remainder of Friday. Increased cloud cover and continued precipitation potential should negate widespread frost/freeze concerns during the pre-dawn hours Saturday despite another night of temperature in the 30s. A final shortwave passage within upper troughing is expected to maintain scattered precip chances on Saturday, with sufficient boundary layer conditions supporting rain/snow potential across higher elevations. Precipitation chances should then diminish as brief sfc high pressure builds by Saturday PM.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A pattern shift is progged Sunday as flattened flow commences, supported by interaction of cut-off Pacific NW low pressure and persistent low pressure near Hudson Bay, Canada. Developing sfc low pressure across the central Plains should promote widespread precipitation chances Sunday into Monday, with brief high pressure returning dry conditions on Wednesday. Rather neutral temperature advection in zonal flow should maintain cool conditions through the extended period. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR will prevail until crossing low pres deteriorates conditions in rain during the predawn of Friday. Cigs will likely drop to MVFR, followed by IFR after 12Z tomorrow. Any improvement of Friday aftn will be brief though as cold advection will spawn MVFR stratocu and additional showers be eve. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely through the weekend with cold upper troughing.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$

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