Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170717 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 317 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather returns today under high pressure, but rain is back in the forecast for mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure will become the dominant weather feature across the area. Thus will expect dry and seasonably cool weather through today and into tonight as sfc high pressure builds under NW flow aloft. Cooler temps and mainly clear skies over the Allegheny National Forest will lead to some patchy frost concerns tonight. Transient high pressure will begin to shift east ahead of the next shortwave trough impacting the region beginning Wednesday morning with showers developing ahead of an approaching warm front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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A general zonal flow aloft is progged by mid week, but a shortwave embedded in the flow is expected to cross the region with scattered clouds and showers returning and inhibiting temperature rebound for Wednesday. Showers chances will persist into Wednesday night with sustained instability leading to thunderstorms possible as well with the approach of stronger forcing from a cold front.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Model ensembles indicate another shortwave embedded in the zonal flow should maintain showers/tstm chances on Thursday. The upper air pattern is expected to become amplified by Friday as an upper trough digs across the Central CONUS. Ridging ahead of this trough should result in warm and mainly dry weather on Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return for the weekend as the trough approaches and crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region. High pressure is expected to return again for the beginning of the workweek as ridging aloft as well will anchor dry weather in place for at least a couple days.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A few mid lvl clouds are expected overnight with a weak, reinforcing cdfnt. Otrw, building high pressure should maintain VFR through the TAF period. Mixing and a pressure gradient should also result in diurnal gusty NW wind today. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely late Wed/Wed night with a crossing trough. Shra/ts restriction potential returns with a Sat cdfnt. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$

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