Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210810 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 410 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring a line of storms late today and through the evening hours. Cooler, more seasonal, weather returns this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Dry weather will continue through much of the day as the mid/upper ridge slowly shifts eastward. A cold front will track from the Wrn Great Lakes/Upper Midwest into the Ern Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley region late this afternoon and evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase ahead of the frontal passage with instability and shear sufficient for severe thunderstorm potential. At this time it appears the primary threat being locally damaging wind gusts. Latest model runs are in pretty good agreement with timing of the front when compared to previous runs, bringing the main line of thunderstorms into the NW around 22z, and into the Pittsburgh Metro area by roughly 8-9 PM. With this timing, the greatest uncertainty will be in how conducive the environment remains for severe convection with decreasing instabilities after sunset. The threat for severe storms will quickly lessen during the evening as the line of storms reaches the southeastern ridge counties by 11pm. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The front quickly clears the area tonight, shower and thunderstorm chances will rapidly decrease behind the boundary. Latest runs are showing the front stalling further south (over the Carolinas) on Saturday. because of this southward trend, have removed all PoPs on Saturday. Front will slowly creep back northward late Saturday night, so have brought PoPs back into the far south, mainly ridge counties, through the period. Dry weather will continue north of the southern ridges as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will drop to below normal values this weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A series of shortwaves will maintain increased PoPs through mid- week before another cold front sweeps through the region on Wednesday. Temperatures should average just around seasonal values before a post-frontal cool-down Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Eroding high pressure will maintain VFR conditions through most of the day. SW winds will increase by midday, with gusts of 15 to 25kts possible. The cold front is progged to impact airports during the evening hours, with restrictions likely in thunderstorms. Outlook... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with a Tuesday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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