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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161345 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 945 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances will continue through the week as several disturbances cross the Ohio Valley region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Minimal change needed this morning. Previous discussion follows.. PREVIOUS.. Surface low will rush eastward this morning, providing a brief reprieve from widespread rain. The break will end quickly as another shortwave races toward the Mason- Dixon line this morning. At the same time, another weak surface low will move across the north, using the stalled front as its guide. So in response, PoPs will again be increased this afternoon. Shortwave and surface low will cruise eastward, exiting the region late this afternoon and evening. So another brief break in the rain is expected during the evening hours. The risk for convection remains highly suspect as atmospheric destabilization is minimal, cloud cover will be ample, and warm air aloft will work to keep the atmosphere capped. Forecast soundings are showing increasing instability aloft this afternoon, as slightly cooler air aloft overspreads the region with the passing shortwave. Because of this, have included the mention of thunder. PWAT values will increase for a time this afternoon, so any convection will increase the risk for heavy rain. This threat will need to be monitored today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A new surface low is expected to strengthen east of the Great Plains early Monday morning, and quickly move into the Ohio Valley late Monday. Multiple 500mb model charts display an upper-level trough accompanying the surface low by late Monday afternoon. Thunderstorms may once again have a chance to develop if there is enough instability aloft. This stubborn pattern will continue into Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Although the timing of any shortwave troughs in the general zonal flow appears to have lower predictability, we know the boundary and continued moisture will be present. Several shortwave troughs will cross our region during this time, suggesting convective chances for most days through the extended period. As the time period for wet disturbances lengthens, the chances for high river rises and isolated flooding increases. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IFR at FKL and DUJ as moisture pools in the vicinity of a surface front...but largely VFR cigs elsewhere as the region takes a quick break from scattered showers. Instability will be limited this afternoon so have opted to include only VCTS across terminals at this time. Greatest chances for convection this afternoon should be confined to southern terminals. .Outlook... Periodic restrictions are possible through the week as a frontal zone sags over the region and interacts with crossing disturbances to produce frequent showers and storms. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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