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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161345
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
945 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances will continue through the week as several disturbances
cross the Ohio Valley region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Minimal change needed this morning. Previous discussion follows..


PREVIOUS..
Surface low will rush eastward this morning, providing a brief
reprieve from widespread rain. The break will end quickly as another
shortwave races toward the Mason- Dixon line this morning. At the
same time, another weak surface low will move across the north, using
the stalled front as its guide. So in response, PoPs will again be
increased this afternoon. Shortwave and surface low will cruise
eastward, exiting the region late this afternoon and evening. So
another brief break in the rain is expected during the evening hours.


The risk for convection remains highly suspect as atmospheric
destabilization is minimal, cloud cover will be ample, and warm air
aloft will work to keep the atmosphere capped. Forecast soundings are
showing increasing instability aloft this afternoon, as slightly
cooler air aloft overspreads the region with the passing shortwave.
Because of this, have included the mention of thunder. PWAT values
will increase for a time this afternoon, so any convection will
increase the risk for heavy rain. This threat will need to be
monitored today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A new surface low is expected to strengthen east of the Great Plains
early Monday morning, and quickly move into the Ohio Valley late
Monday. Multiple 500mb model charts display an upper-level trough
accompanying the surface low by late Monday afternoon. Thunderstorms
may once again have a chance to develop if there is enough
instability aloft.

This stubborn pattern will continue into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Although the timing of any shortwave troughs in the general zonal
flow appears to have lower predictability, we know the boundary and
continued moisture will be present. Several shortwave troughs will
cross our region during this time, suggesting convective chances for
most days through the extended period. As the time period for wet
disturbances lengthens, the chances for high river rises and isolated
flooding increases.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR at FKL and DUJ as moisture pools in the vicinity of a surface
front...but largely VFR cigs elsewhere as the region takes a quick
break from scattered showers. Instability will be limited this
afternoon so have opted to include only VCTS across terminals at
this time. Greatest chances for convection this afternoon should be
confined to southern terminals.

.Outlook...
Periodic restrictions are possible through the week as a frontal
zone sags over the region and interacts with crossing disturbances to
produce frequent showers and storms.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$