Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250007 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 707 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will end with passage of a cold front this eve. High pressure will keep the region until rain chance returns for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Changes for the eve update included precip. prob. adjustments based on the latest radar, and high res model trends which point to a slower exit of rain from ern and srn zones. A shortwave trough that is traversing the upper Great Lakes is draging a cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley this eve. Attendant showers will be progressive and moisture limited, so no problems of a rain total and snow melt combination are likely. A brief transition to snow is possible, especially over the ridges with frontal passage, but progression and lack of mixing depth will limit accumulation potential. Cold advection tonight will drop morning lows back near the late February averages. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Seasonable temperature is expected Thursday, with a several degree moderation on Friday as high pressure builds. With passing shortwaves in quasizonal flow, variable cloudiness is likely, but dry weather will prevail. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Warm and moist advection will return this weekend as another shortwave traverses the Great Lakes. This will bring warmer temperature, but with rain chance. Again, progression and the lack of a deep moisture tap are expected to inhibit any snow-melt/rain flood threat. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR cigs and sct shra are expected through early this eve as a cdfnt crosses the region. Cigs are expected to deteriorate to MVFR late this eve and overnight after FROPA with low lvl moisture below a lowering temperature inversion. A tight pressure gradient and mixing should maintain gusty SW wind up to 30 kt through erly eve. A WSHFT to the W and NW is expected after FROPA, with wind speeds decreasing overnight as the pres gradient and mixing diminishes. .Outlook... Periodic restriction potential returns Fri night thru Mon with a series of low pres areas. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$

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