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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181933
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
333 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching front will bring better rain chances areawide
beginning tonight and into the middle of the week. Slightly
cooler air will follow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Except for an isolated shower in the ridges, the bulk of any
precipitation this afternoon has been along a lake breeze
boundary that moved off Lake Erie. As the boundary has moved
farther away from the lake, coverage of showers and
thunderstorms has dropped. SPC has a marginal risk of severe
storms along and north of the I-80 corridor, primarily for a
threat of damaging winds. Although shower/thunderstorm coverage
will continue to drop across that line, additional showers and
thunderstorms will move into the region from the northwest this
evening with the approach of a cold front. Tonight will be
another warm night, with lows only dropping into the upper 60s
and 70s.

The cold front will continue to shift south on Tuesday, with
likely pops continuing south of Pittsburgh. SPC has shifted the
marginal severe storm risk so that it barely clips the
southernmost reaches of the forecast area. The greater threat
will be for excessive rainfall primarily south of Interstate 70.
Although overall rainfall totals are broadly forecast around
half an inch on Tuesday, repeated showers and thunderstorms
could allow for locally heavier rainfall. With widespread cloud
cover and cooler air behind the front, highs will be in the 80s
everywhere on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The front will move little through this part of the forecast,
and rain will continue particularly across southern locations.
While overall rainfall coverage will diminish Tuesday night, a
reinforcing wave of low pressure will bring back rainfall on
Wednesday, and have bumped up pops to the categorical range
south of Interstate 70. The slight risk for excessive rainfall
will continue south of Pittsburgh on Wednesday as well. Behind
the wave of low pressure, it appears that the front will finally
slide south of the forecast area, at least temporarily, on
Thursday, bringing a break to rainfall. Highs will continue to
be around the 80 degree mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
While the front will remain south of the forecast area at the
beginning of the extended forecast, a more substantial low
pressure system is expected to move along the front over the
weekend, bringing a renewed chance of rain to all locations on
Saturday. Yet another wave will move along the front Sunday into
Monday before high pressure finally begins to build in from the
Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain seasonal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist this evening, marred only by a
passing shower or thunderstorm associated with the Lake Erie
lake breeze boundary north of I-80. The ridge shifts southward
this evening/overnight as a cold front approaches from the N.
The front will bring more widespread shower/tstm chances from
N-S. MVFR cigs are expected to develop overnight with moisture
pooling along the front. Did not trend the ceilings as low as
guidance wants to take it.

Gusty west wind will shift to northwesterly tonight behind the
front. There is a low, but non-zero llws possibility early
Tuesday, but confidence was too low for inclusion at this time.

OUTLOOK...
Periodic restrictions are possible through Fri as the front
stalls and wavers across the OH Valley region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ039-040-048-
     049-057>059-068-069.
PA...None.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ004-012.

&&

$$