Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 120538 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 138 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid weather will continue through much of the week, with a daily chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly south of Pittsburgh. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 04Z sfc analysis shows the weak front stretched across southern portions of the CWA early this morning, making slow progress to the south before stalling along the Mason-Dixon. As skies continue to clear, residual boundary layer moisture will allow for development of patchy fog, especially across the river valleys. The overnight forecast remains on track, and no further changes were needed. Lows are expected to be around 5 degrees above average. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... That stalled front is projected to meander over the Mid Atlantic region through much of the week with persistent but weak shortwave troughing aloft. As a result, daily, diurnally-supported convection is expected fueled by moist low levels. Recent guidance has trended farther south with placement of the frontal boundary, which should shift greatest PoPs southwards and lower overall QPF totals across the area. Northern counties will also be under the growing influence of building high pressure and drier air, which will further limit rain chance to areas south and east of Pittsburgh. Despite weak frontal passage today, seasonably warm temperature can be expected for the period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Similar conditions are to continue this weekend with daily diurnally-supported convection anticipated. More vigorous shortwave support with an encroaching front is likely to spread the rain chance more evenly across the area on these days. Seasonable warmth can be expected through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A weak cold front continues to crawl towards the Mason-Dixon Line this morning. Drier air is lagging behind the boundary, and low-level moisture will linger through the night. Thus, patchy MVFR/IFR fog is expected overnight and near sunrise, especially in valley locations. Any fog will lift by 13Z, with VFR conditions under scattered cumulus expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Wind will remain light throughout. .Outlook... Periodic restriction potential can be expected through Thu S of PIT, and area wide Fri thru Sun, with a slow moving surface front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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