Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 100502 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 102 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather and near-to-above-average temperature are expected through most of the weekend, before low pressure arrives Sunday evening into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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No changes needed to the overnight period. Lows will continue to sit below average with efficient cooling under calm winds and clear skies. Fog may be possible tonight as lows approach their dews, particularly for areas that received a bit of rain today. Expect brief ridging today which will increase upper level subsidence. Wind direction will finally return to the west, with air quality improvements anticipated. Efficient, smoke free heating and westerly flow will keep temperatures near normal. An upper low is expected to cut off from the flow aloft later today and dive south into the Great Lakes. Current model solutions have trended east with the upper low positioning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Surface low development is anticipated late tonight. Resulting upper cirrus will likely thicken and increase in coverage tonight ahead of the next system. An upper low will continue to push into the Great Lakes region, Sunday night. The surface low should deepen on the south to southeast flank of the upper low. Current model data shows the arrival of precipitation in the Pittsburgh metro to be sometime Sunday evening or early into the overnight. The surface low track continues to move southeast. This puts the Pittsburgh area in a more favorable region for QPF than prior forecasts. This bring some relief to the abnormally dry conditions.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Using multi-model clustering, there is high confidence that the upper low will hang around eastern Michigan and southern Ontario through at least Tuesday night, maintaining intermittent precipitation chances along passing shortwaves in maintained west to southwest flow. Ensembles are divergent in how the low is reintegrated into flow during mid week. This will result in low confidence in temperature and precipitation forecasts past Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through the period as surface high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley region. Model soundings indicate sct cu development by late morning through the afternoon as convective temperatures are reached. Cirrus will increase by evening ahead of an approaching northern Plains trough. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions in widespread rain are likely with a Sun night and Mon cold front. Restrictions are possible again Tue/Wed in scattered showers under an upper trough.
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&& .CLIMATE... Prolonged dry conditions have resulted is sizable dry streaks at some observing sites. The longest consecutive days without measurable precip and current streaks are (as of June 9th): Climate Site Record Streak Current Streak ____________________________________________________________ Pittsburgh 26 days, 1874 20 days DuBois 23 days, 1988 19 days (ended today) Zanesville 44 days, 1963 20 days New Philadelphia 27 days, 1963 20 days Wheeling 27 days, 1947/1884 20 days Morgantown 36 days, 1908 6 days && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22 NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...Milcarek LONG TERM...Milcarek AVIATION...WM CLIMATE...Milcarek

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