Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181310 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 810 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Some light snow showers will linger today in the wake of a cold front. A dry and seasonably cold Tuesday is expected before mixed precipitation and rain return for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... With 7am update, made some minor changes to hourly temperatures and chance for precipitation. Previous discussion follows. Low pressure has completed passage and cold advection is underway across the region. The depth of the cold mixing layer will eventually be sufficient for some snow shower development, but building high pressure should snuff those by evening. Given the shallow nature of the convection, problematic accumulation is unlikely. Temperatures are expected to top out about 5 to 10 degrees below the averages. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will suppress snow showers through the Tuesday. Expect seasonable cold to continue under zonal flow aloft. A wintry mix, including possible freezing rain is again anticipated for Wednesday as a warm front surges across the region in extension fm Midwest low pres. A couple problems are emerging in this strong warm advection regime including a period of freezing rain for most of the area, which may linger through the day in the dynamic cooling areas of the eastern ridges and I 80 corridor. The initial warm surge may also generate some accumulating snow, potential for which should eventually be hampered by warm advection aloft/degradation of dendritic growth. Nevertheless, a Winter Storm Watch was issued in conjunction with neighboring WFOs for accumulating snow with the ice. This for Garrett, MD and Ern Tucker WV. For other zones, a Hazardous Weather Outlook mention was continued. This system is also projected to generate decent rainfall with an inch, to inch and a half progged over the Upper Mon and Cheat River basins. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Development of a fairly deep Wrn CONUS trough is still projected this week with persistent SW flow over the Upr OH Region. Expect temperature at, or above the seasonal averages and continued shortwave-dependent precip chcs. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... IFR at BVI/FKL/DUJ is expected to transition to MVFR through the day although some -shsn will dvlp in the cold NW boundary layer flow, which should gust 20 to 25 kt for much of the day. Expect VFR by this eve with diminished wind. Those condition can be expected to persist through Tuesday eve. .Outlook... Widespread restrictions with a regional wintry mix can be expected Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for MDZ001. OH...None. PA...None. WV...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for WVZ514. && $$

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