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735 FXUS61 KPBZ 141118 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 718 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Dry, seasonable weather will continue until a cold front brings showers and breezy conditions to the region on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 715am update...minor tweaks to grids accounting for latest sfc obs, satellite imagery, and hi-res models, but the overall forecast message remains the same. Previous Discussion... A shortwave rotating around the upper level low across the northern Great Lakes will help drop a cold front southward across the CWA this morning. Lack of moisture and displacement from upper support will keep precipitating activity non- existent along the front as it crosses our area. The only change to the sensible weather will be increased cloud coverage, a WNW wind shift and a slightly cooler afternoon today than on Sunday. As the aforementioned cyclone lifts northeastward, another trough will drop out of Alberta and into the Upper-Midwest. Ahead of this system, southerly flow and WAA over our region will result in Tuesday being the warmest day of the work week. The temperature will range from the 60s to lower 70s in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... By midnight Wednesday, the aforementioned low is progged to be over Michigan, with a cold front extending southward through the Ohio Valley. The frontal rainband will likely expand as it crosses the CWA, owing to deeper moisture and enhanced ascent under the left exit quadrant of the southern stream ~150 kt jet streak. Ensemble guidance suggest somewhere in the vicinity of a half inch of rain will fall through the first half of Wednesday as the front crosses. Some select model guidance suggests lapse rates steep enough to support a few cells capable of lightning, but have chose to leave out of forecast package at the moment due to guidance spread. Gusty winds will also accompany the front and persist into Thursday. Wind speeds will likely be under threshold for an advisory for most of the region with the exception of the highest elevations (>3000 ft) in the Allegheny Front, which may very well see wind sustained above 30 mph overnight Wednesday. Cloud cover w/ scattered lake-enhanced showers will persist across the area on Wednesday and through much of Thursday as cold cyclonic NW flow crosses the warm Lake Erie and moves onto the Allegheny Plateau and ridges. Both days may feel a bit chilly for mid-October as the cool air and cloud cover keeps the temp to the upper 40s to low 50s during the afternoon each day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The extended period will feature a shift in the pattern from the cool, mid-week dreariness mentioned above. The synoptic scale wave pattern will prograde and the CWA will be under the influence of ridge as it moves overhead. No precip and a mostly sunny sky will help temps rise to the upper 50s and lower 60s for highs on Friday. Seasonably warm weather and mostly dry conditions can be expected over the weekend as the region will sit in southerly flow between west Atlantic high pressure and deep central-CONUS troughing. Global models differ on exact timing, but confidence is high that another low will bring rain to the area sometime the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry air on the flank of the broad and deep srn Canada low wl maintain VFR through Monday. A reinforcing cold front is progged to cross the region Monday, resulting in a WSHFT to the W-NW and sct- locally bkn CU. Light wind wl also persist until FROPA, when gusts of 15 to 20 kt can be expected Monday afternoon as mixing deepens with warming. .Outlook... Restrictions and gusty sfc wind are likely Wed as strong low pres crosses the Great Lakes. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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