Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280506 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 106 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Light rain chances will continue early this morning followed by dry conditions the remainder of the day. Widespread rain is expected Thursday and Thursday night with low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Patchy light rain will continue overnight with relatively weak lift under the right entrance region of the upper jet. Cloud coverage and precip will hold overnight lows above normal for the end of October. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A closed upper low is progged to advance out of the Southern Plains Wednesday night and Thursday, as remnant tropical low tracks NE from the Gulf in SW flow ahead of the upper low. The upper low is then expected to phase with a northern stream trough later Thursday and Thursday night as it crosses the Ern CONUS, as the associated sfc low tracks across the Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic region. The combination of the remnant tropical moisture, and increasing jet and shortwave supported ascent, should result in widespread rain across the region late Wednesday night through Thursday night. Models at this time have been converging on rainfall amounts between 1.5 and 2.5 inches across the forecast area. This amount varies from the highest amount in the south to lower amounts in the north. The fact that we are going into this event with a rainfall deficit means that this will not be an impactful event. However, we have lost some of our vegetation due to the change in seasons. Thus, one can`t rule out an isolated high water issues. The sfc low is progged to track to the Mid Atlantic Coast Thursday night. Cold advection behind the low could result in some of the rain mixing with snow north of I 80 late Thursday night, though no accumulation is expected. Seasonably cool temperatures are expected through the period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long term discussion begins on Friday night with the shortwave trough pushing off to the east leaving upper level shortwave ridging to move into the area. This will give a period of dry weather Saturday and into Sunday morning before the next shortwave trough and associated cold front moves through Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. A bit of snow mixing with rain is possible Sunday night in the northern portions of the forecast area. After this, strong longwave ridging takes over keep the region dry through the rest of the forecast period. This dry stretch may even last into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread IFR is expected through morning with low lvl moisture in place, and rain with a crossing shortwave. Gradual improvement through MVFR is expected by mid to late morning as the shortwave and associated rain exit the region. Weak sfc high pres is progged to build by late aftn, with improvement to VFR expected for most ports. Deterioration back to MVFR is expected late tonight as low pres approaches, and spreads widespread rain across the region. .Outlook... Wdsprd IFR is expected through Thu night in rain with low pres. Gradual improvement thru MVFR to VFR is expd Fri. Restrictions are possible with a Sun cdfnt. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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