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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280506
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
106 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain chances will continue early this morning followed by dry
conditions the remainder of the day.  Widespread rain is expected
Thursday and Thursday night with low pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Patchy light rain will continue overnight with relatively weak lift
under the right entrance region of the upper jet. Cloud coverage and
precip will hold overnight lows above normal for the end of October.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A closed upper low is progged to advance out of the Southern Plains
Wednesday night and Thursday, as remnant tropical low tracks NE from
the Gulf in SW flow ahead of the upper low. The upper low is then
expected to phase with a northern stream trough later Thursday and
Thursday night as it crosses the Ern CONUS, as the associated sfc low
tracks across the Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic region. The combination
of the remnant tropical moisture, and increasing jet and shortwave
supported ascent, should result in widespread rain across the region
late Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Models at this time have been converging on rainfall amounts between
1.5 and 2.5 inches across the forecast area. This amount varies from
the highest amount in the south to lower amounts in the north. The
fact that we are going into this event with a rainfall deficit means
that this will not be an impactful event. However, we have lost some
of our vegetation due to the change in seasons. Thus, one can`t rule
out an isolated high water issues.

The sfc low is progged to track to the Mid Atlantic Coast Thursday
night. Cold advection behind the low could result in some of the rain
mixing with snow north of I 80 late Thursday night, though no
accumulation is expected. Seasonably cool temperatures are expected
through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term discussion begins on Friday night with the shortwave
trough pushing off to the east leaving upper level shortwave ridging
to move into the area. This will give a period of dry weather
Saturday and into Sunday morning before the next shortwave trough and
associated cold front moves through Sunday afternoon and Sunday
night. A bit of snow mixing with rain is possible Sunday night in the
northern portions of the forecast area. After this, strong longwave
ridging takes over keep the region dry through the rest of the
forecast period. This dry stretch may even last into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread IFR is expected through morning with low lvl moisture in
place, and rain with a crossing shortwave. Gradual improvement
through MVFR is expected by mid to late morning as the shortwave and
associated rain exit the region. Weak sfc high pres is progged to
build by late aftn, with improvement to VFR expected for most ports.

Deterioration back to MVFR is expected late tonight as low pres
approaches, and spreads widespread rain across the region.

.Outlook...
Wdsprd IFR is expected through Thu night in rain with low pres.
Gradual improvement thru MVFR to VFR is expd Fri. Restrictions are
possible with a Sun cdfnt.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$